Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects

There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

A note on financial regulation and the brazilian response to the 2008‐09 financial crisis

Brazil was frequently criticized for its interventionist and heavy financial regulation up until the 2008‐09 world financial crisis.  According to the neo‐liberal or pro‐market view that predominated in academic and financial circles during the early 2000s, economic development came together with financial deepening, which in its turn could only be achieved through financial liberalization and deregulation. The currency crises of the 1990s notwithstanding, by the mid‐2000s Brazil’s segmented financial market and its restrictive reserve and capital requirements were seen as a symbol of inefficiency and backwardness by most financial specialists.  To the luck of the Brazilian population, most of the advices of such specialists were ignored by the Brazilian authorities, so that, when the 2008 financial crisis hit the world economy, Brazil still had powerful and efficient instruments to deal with the problem.  The objective of this note is to present the mains aspects of the Brazilian financial regulation and how they helped the economy to deal with the consequences of 2008‐09 financial meltdown.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Hemiparesia congênita e adquirida na criança: interrelação entre presença de crises epilépticas, os achados eletrencefalográficos e de neuroimagem por ressonância nuclear magnética

The purpose of this paper was to study patients with congenital and acquired hemiparesis, their clinical aspects, the presence or not of epileptic seizures, and electroencephalographic (EEG) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) findings. We analyzed the interrelation between etiology, the presence and seriousness of epileptic seizures (ES) and the possible causes of refractoriness. This is a prospective study using the clinical diagnosis of a child neurologist, who attested to the presence of unilateral motor lesions. We compared the electroencephalographic findings in patients with or without epileptic seizures, and investigated if among the former, these seizures were controlled or not, their likely etiology and risks of refractoriness. EEG background activity on the lesion and contralateral side was analyzed, in addition to the presence of concomitant epileptiform activity. Encephalon MRIs of all the patients were studied to correlate etiology and the control or not of epileptic seizures. The disorganization of bilateral EEG activity correlated with the difficult-to-control epileptic seizures. Suitably organized background activity contralateral to the lesion is a good prognosis in relation to epileptic seizures. Focal epileptogenic activity does not necessarily predispose to epileptic manifestation. The MRI is more important in determining etiology than in prognosing epileptic seizures. This study used a multidisciplinary approach involving child neurologists, a physical therapist and a neuroradiologist. This meets the criteria of multidisciplinarity of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences

O progama empregador de última instância: Sua relevância em tempos de crises financeiras e sua aplicabilidade ao Brasil.

This dissertation aims to continue the work developed previously concerning the properties of the employer of last resort program (ELR) that would be able to promote a complete elimination of the involuntary unemployment from the economy, so much of the unemployment generated by structural problems as for problems of the conjuncture, as the present world financial crisis. Besides, it intends to deepen the study concerning the applicability of that program to the Brazilian economy, estimating their potential target population in the country and the cost with the workers' remuneration. It was presented the ELR theoretical-conceptual structure and a debate concerning their economic viability; the program properties that turn it more efficient than the onetary and fiscal policies (PMFs) in the fight against involuntary unemployment in times of financial crises; a study on its applicability to the Brazilian socioeconomic specificities and an estimate of their potential target population and of the annual wage cost in the country, as a whole, and in the specific case of the Northeast region and of the state of Rio Grande do Norte.

The Xmnl polymorphic site 5 ' to the gene G gamma in a Brazilian patient with sickle cell anaemia - fetal haemoglobin concentration, haematology and clinical features

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Regular and chaotic interactions of two BPS dyons at low energy

We identify and analyze quasiperiodic and chaotic motion patterns in the time evolution of a classical, non-Abelian Bogomol'nyi-Prasad-Sommerfield (BPS) dyon pair at low energies. This system is amenable to the geodesic approximation which restricts the underlying SU(2) Yang-Mills-Higgs dynamics to an eight-dimensional phase space. We numerically calculate a representative set of long-time solutions to the corresponding Hamilton equations and analyze quasiperiodic and chaotic phase space regions by means of Poincare surfaces of section, high-resolution power spectra and Lyapunov exponents. Our results provide clear evidence for both quasiperiodic and chaotic behavior and characterize it quantitatively. Indications for intermittency are also discussed.

Sudden changes in chaotic attractors and transient basins in a model for rattling in gearboxes

We consider a model for rattling in single-stage gearbox systems with some backlash consisting of two wheels with a sinusoidal driving; the equations of motions are analytically integrated between two impacts of the gear teeth. Just after each impact, a mapping is used to obtain the dynamical variables. We have observed a rich dynamical behavior in such system, by varying its control parameters, and we focus on intermittent switching between laminar oscillations and chaotic bursting, as well as crises, which are sudden changes in the chaotic behavior. The corresponding transient basins in phase space are found to be riddled-like, with a highly interwoven fractal structure. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitorização vídeo-EEG prolongada em crises não epilépticas: semiologia clínica

O objetivo deste estudo foi mostrar a contribuição da monitorização vídeo-EEG prolongada (MVEP) no diagnóstico de crises não epilépticas (CNE) e estimar sua prevalência em um centro terciário de atendimento à Epilepsia (EP). Foram observados 47 pacientes com diagnóstico de CNE com crises espontâneas ou provocadas. Foram instituídos protocolos direcionados à história clínica e à semiologia das crises. A análise estatística baseou-se no teste de Fisher e na análise de cluster. Os resultados evidenciaram prevalência de 10% de CNE. Houve predominância do sexo feminino (63,8%); em 57% dos pacientes as crises foram espontâneas. A média de idade foi 32,5 ± 11anos. O sinal semiológico mais freqüente foi o sono aparente (87,2%). em 9% dos pacientes observaram-se tanto EP como CNE. Três agrupamentos resultaram da análise de cluster: CNE hipermotora das extremidades com alteração de tônus; CNE com automatismos e CNE axial com movimentos oculares. em conclusão, o estudo da semiologia clínica das CNE durante a MVEP contribui para o diagnóstico desta entidade nosológica e para o diagnóstico diferencial com EP; o teste provocativo auxilia na obtenção das crises.

The 844ins68 cystathionine beta-synthase and C677T MTHFR gene polymorphism and the vaso-occlusive event risk in sickle cell disease

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2003

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008-2009: Policies for creating quality jobs

Includes bibliography

Foreign Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2002

Includes bibliography