Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Using decision support systems to facilitate the social process of knowledge management

The social processes involved in engaging small groups of 3-15 managers in their sharing, organising, acquiring, creating and using knowledge can be supported with software and facilitator assistance. This paper introduces three such systems that we have used as facilitators to support groups of managers in their social process of decision-making by managing knowledge during face-to-face meetings. The systems include Compendium, Group Explorer (with Decision Explorer) and V*I*S*A. We review these systems for group knowledge management where the aim is for better decision-making, and discuss the principles of deploying each in a group meeting. © 2006 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Knowledge engineering for mental-health risk assessment and decision support

Mental-health risk assessment practice in the UK is mainly paper-based, with little standardisation in the tools that are used across the Services. The tools that are available tend to rely on minimal sets of items and unsophisticated scoring methods to identify at-risk individuals. This means the reasoning by which an outcome has been determined remains uncertain. Consequently, there is little provision for: including the patient as an active party in the assessment process, identifying underlying causes of risk, and eecting shared decision-making. This thesis develops a tool-chain for the formulation and deployment of a computerised clinical decision support system for mental-health risk assessment. The resultant tool, GRiST, will be based on consensual domain expert knowledge that will be validated as part of the research, and will incorporate a proven psychological model of classication for risk computation. GRiST will have an ambitious remit of being a platform that can be used over the Internet, by both the clinician and the layperson, in multiple settings, and in the assessment of patients with varying demographics. Flexibility will therefore be a guiding principle in the development of the platform, to the extent that GRiST will present an assessment environment that is tailored to the circumstances in which it nds itself. XML and XSLT will be the key technologies that help deliver this exibility.

Decision support system for spare parts warehousing

Spare parts warehousing decision-making plays an important role in today's manufacturing industry as it derives an optimum inventory policy for the organizations. Previous research on spare parts warehousing decision-making did not deal with the problem holistically considering all the subjective and objective criteria of operational and strategic needs of the manufacturing companies in the process industry. This study reviews current relevant literature and develops a conceptual framework (an integrated group decision support system) for selecting the most effective warehousing option for the process industry using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The framework has been applied to a multinational cement manufacturing company in the UK. Three site visits, eight formal interviews, and several discussions have been undertaken with personnel of the organization, many of which have more than 20 years of experience, in order to apply the proposed decision support system (DSS). Subsequently, the DSS has been validated through a questionnaire survey in order to establish its usefulness, effectiveness for warehousing decision-making, and the possibility of adoption. The proposed DSS is an integrated framework for selecting the best warehousing option for business excellence in any manufacturing organization.

Recent developments in information retrieval:preface

This paper summarizes the scientific work presented at the 32nd European Conference on Information Retrieval. It demonstrates that information retrieval (IR) as a research area continues to thrive with progress being made in three complementary sub-fields, namely IR theory and formal methods together with indexing and query representation issues, furthermore Web IR as a primary application area and finally research into evaluation methods and metrics. It is the combination of these areas that gives IR its solid scientific foundations. The paper also illustrates that significant progress has been made in other areas of IR. The keynote speakers addressed three such subject fields, social search engines using personalization and recommendation technologies, the renewed interest in applying natural language processing to IR, and multimedia IR as another fast-growing area.

LRD : Latent Relation Discovery for vector space expansion and information retrieval

In this paper, we propose a text mining method called LRD (latent relation discovery), which extends the traditional vector space model of document representation in order to improve information retrieval (IR) on documents and document clustering. Our LRD method extracts terms and entities, such as person, organization, or project names, and discovers relationships between them by taking into account their co-occurrence in textual corpora. Given a target entity, LRD discovers other entities closely related to the target effectively and efficiently. With respect to such relatedness, a measure of relation strength between entities is defined. LRD uses relation strength to enhance the vector space model, and uses the enhanced vector space model for query based IR on documents and clustering documents in order to discover complex relationships among terms and entities. Our experiments on a standard dataset for query based IR shows that our LRD method performed significantly better than traditional vector space model and other five standard statistical methods for vector expansion.

Automatic indexing in information retrieval

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Bioenergy decision support systems:worth the effort?

The purpose of this research is to explore the disparity between the existing model-orientated bioenergy decision support system (DSS) functions and what is desired by practitioners, in particular bioenergy project developers. This research has compiled the published bioenergy project development models, to highlight the characteristics emphasised by academics. When contrasted against a UK practitioner’s perspective through the administration of a Likert style questionnaire, it is clear that the general DSS issues still persist. Finally, the research suggests how this ’theory-practice’ divide could be addressed. The research contribute

Psychological cue use and implications for a clinical decision support system

Effective clinical decision making depends upon identifying possible outcomes for a patient, selecting relevant cues, and processing the cues to arrive at accurate judgements of each outcome's probability of occurrence. These activities can be considered as classification tasks. This paper describes a new model of psychological classification that explains how people use cues to determine class or outcome likelihoods. It proposes that clinicians respond to conditional probabilities of outcomes given cues and that these probabilities compete with each other for influence on classification. The model explains why people appear to respond to base rates inappropriately, thereby overestimating the occurrence of rare categories, and a clinical example is provided for predicting suicide risk. The model makes an effective representation for expert clinical judgements and its psychological validity enables it to generate explanations in a form that is comprehensible to clinicians. It is a strong candidate for incorporation within a decision support system for mental-health risk assessment, where it can link with statistical and pattern recognition tools applied to a database of patients. The symbiotic combination of empirical evidence and clinical expertise can provide an important web-based resource for risk assessment, including multi-disciplinary education and training. © 2002 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

Enhancing Information Retrieval by Using Evolution Strategies

Similar to Genetic algorithm, Evolution strategy is a process of continuous reproduction, trial and selection. Each new generation is an improvement on the one that went before. This paper presents two different proposals based on the vector space model (VSM) as a traditional model in information Retrieval (TIR). The first uses evolution strategy (ES). The second uses the document centroid (DC) in query expansion technique. Then the results are compared; it was noticed that ES technique is more efficient than the other methods.

A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments

Integrated supplier selection and order allocation is an important decision for both designing and operating supply chains. This decision is often influenced by the concerned stakeholders, suppliers, plant operators and customers in different tiers. As firms continue to seek competitive advantage through supply chain design and operations they aim to create optimized supply chains. This calls for on one hand consideration of multiple conflicting criteria and on the other hand consideration of uncertainties of demand and supply. Although there are studies on supplier selection using advanced mathematical models to cover a stochastic approach, multiple criteria decision making techniques and multiple stakeholder requirements separately, according to authors' knowledge there is no work that integrates these three aspects in a common framework. This paper proposes an integrated method for dealing with such problems using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process-Quality Function Deployment (AHP-QFD) and chance constrained optimization algorithm approach that selects appropriate suppliers and allocates orders optimally between them. The effectiveness of the proposed decision support system has been demonstrated through application and validation in the bioenergy industry.