Extracting Patterns from Educational Traces via Clustering and Associated Quality Metrics

Clustering algorithms, pattern mining techniques and associated quality metrics emerged as reliable methods for modeling learners’ performance, comprehension and interaction in given educational scenarios. The specificity of available data such as missing values, extreme values or outliers, creates a challenge to extract significant user models from an educational perspective. In this paper we introduce a pattern detection mechanism with-in our data analytics tool based on k-means clustering and on SSE, silhouette, Dunn index and Xi-Beni index quality metrics. Experiments performed on a dataset obtained from our online e-learning platform show that the extracted interaction patterns were representative in classifying learners. Furthermore, the performed monitoring activities created a strong basis for generating automatic feedback to learners in terms of their course participation, while relying on their previous performance. In addition, our analysis introduces automatic triggers that highlight learners who will potentially fail the course, enabling tutors to take timely actions.

Increased hospital-based physical rehabilitation and information provision after intensive care unit discharge: the RECOVER randomized clinical trial.

Importance: critical illness results in disability and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQOL), but the optimum timing and components of rehabilitation are uncertain. Objective: to evaluate the effect of increasing physical and nutritional rehabilitation plus information delivered during the post–intensive care unit (ICU) acute hospital stay by dedicated rehabilitation assistants on subsequent mobility, HRQOL, and prevalent disabilities. Design, Setting, and Participants: a parallel group, randomized clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment at 2 hospitals in Edinburgh, Scotland, of 240 patients discharged from the ICU between December 1, 2010, and January 31, 2013, who required at least 48 hours of mechanical ventilation. Analysis for the primary outcome and other 3-month outcomes was performed between June and August 2013; for the 6- and 12-month outcomes and the health economic evaluation, between March and April 2014. Interventions: during the post-ICU hospital stay, both groups received physiotherapy and dietetic, occupational, and speech/language therapy, but patients in the intervention group received rehabilitation that typically increased the frequency of mobility and exercise therapies 2- to 3-fold, increased dietetic assessment and treatment, used individualized goal setting, and provided greater illness-specific information. Intervention group therapy was coordinated and delivered by a dedicated rehabilitation practitioner. Main Outcomes and Measures: the Rivermead Mobility Index (RMI) (range 0-15) at 3 months; higher scores indicate greater mobility. Secondary outcomes included HRQOL, psychological outcomes, self-reported symptoms, patient experience, and cost-effectiveness during a 12-month follow-up (completed in February 2014). Results: median RMI at randomization was 3 (interquartile range [IQR], 1-6) and at 3 months was 13 (IQR, 10-14) for the intervention and usual care groups (mean difference, −0.2 [95% CI, −1.3 to 0.9; P = .71]). The HRQOL scores were unchanged by the intervention (mean difference in the Physical Component Summary score, −0.1 [95% CI, −3.3 to 3.1; P = .96]; and in the Mental Component Summary score, 0.2 [95% CI, −3.4 to 3.8; P = .91]). No differences were found for self-reported symptoms of fatigue, pain, appetite, joint stiffness, or breathlessness. Levels of anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress were similar, as were hand grip strength and the timed Up & Go test. No differences were found at the 6- or 12-month follow-up for any outcome measures. However, patients in the intervention group reported greater satisfaction with physiotherapy, nutritional support, coordination of care, and information provision. Conclusions and Relevance: post-ICU hospital-based rehabilitation, including increased physical and nutritional therapy plus information provision, did not improve physical recovery or HRQOL, but improved patient satisfaction with many aspects of recovery.

Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

VOX POPULI: THREE ESSAYS ON THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA FOR VALUE CREATION IN SERVICES

Prior research shows that electronic word of mouth (eWOM) wields considerable influence over consumer behavior. However, as the volume and variety of eWOM grows, firms are faced with challenges in analyzing and responding to this information. In this dissertation, I argue that to meet the new challenges and opportunities posed by the expansion of eWOM and to more accurately measure its impacts on firms and consumers, we need to revisit our methodologies for extracting insights from eWOM. This dissertation consists of three essays that further our understanding of the value of social media analytics, especially with respect to eWOM. In the first essay, I use machine learning techniques to extract semantic structure from online reviews. These semantic dimensions describe the experiences of consumers in the service industry more accurately than traditional numerical variables. To demonstrate the value of these dimensions, I show that they can be used to substantially improve the accuracy of econometric models of firm survival. In the second essay, I explore the effects on eWOM of online deals, such as those offered by Groupon, the value of which to both consumers and merchants is controversial. Through a combination of Bayesian econometric models and controlled lab experiments, I examine the conditions under which online deals affect online reviews and provide strategies to mitigate the potential negative eWOM effects resulting from online deals. In the third essay, I focus on how eWOM can be incorporated into efforts to reduce foodborne illness, a major public health concern. I demonstrate how machine learning techniques can be used to monitor hygiene in restaurants through crowd-sourced online reviews. I am able to identify instances of moral hazard within the hygiene inspection scheme used in New York City by leveraging a dictionary specifically crafted for this purpose. To the extent that online reviews provide some visibility into the hygiene practices of restaurants, I show how losses from information asymmetry may be partially mitigated in this context. Taken together, this dissertation contributes by revisiting and refining the use of eWOM in the service sector through a combination of machine learning and econometric methodologies.

Modelo de mineração de dados em bases de dados acadêmicas

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, 2016.

Acesso à informação e intimidade : um dilema do Estado Democrático de Direito

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Direito, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Direito, 2016.

Special issue: Selected papers from the sixth IFIP 2.6 working conference on visual database systems: Guest editors' introduction

While multimedia data, image data in particular, is an integral part of most websites and web documents, our quest for information so far is still restricted to text based search. To explore the World Wide Web more effectively, especially its rich repository of truly multimedia information, we are facing a number of challenging problems. Firstly, we face the ambiguous and highly subjective nature of defining image semantics and similarity. Secondly, multimedia data could come from highly diversified sources, as a result of automatic image capturing and generation processes. Finally, multimedia information exists in decentralised sources over the Web, making it difficult to use conventional content-based image retrieval (CBIR) techniques for effective and efficient search. In this special issue, we present a collection of five papers on visual and multimedia information management and retrieval topics, addressing some aspects of these challenges. These papers have been selected from the conference proceedings (Kluwer Academic Publishers, ISBN: 1-4020- 7060-8) of the Sixth IFIP 2.6 Working Conference on Visual Database Systems (VDB6), held in Brisbane, Australia, on 29–31 May 2002.

Sunshine and suicide at the tropic of Capricorn, São Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2004

Several studies have confirmed seasonal variation in suicide rates according to hours of sunshine. The suicide pattern was assessed in São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, at the tropic of Capricorn from 1996 to 2004. Poisson regression was employed to estimate parameters of seasonality, as well as to verify associations for each day between daylight duration and suicide. During the nine-year study period, there were 3,984 suicides (76.9% in men; median age=38.7 years old). Seasonal averages of suicides were similar, as were monthly averages. Poisson regression did not reveal any association between suicide rates and hours of sunshine (p=0.45) for both sexes. In conclusion, no seasonal pattern was observed for suicides.

Literacia de informação na Polícia de Segurança Pública

Orientadora: Doutora Anabela Mesquita Teixeira Sarmento

Real time mobile system for support in firefighting environments

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Frequency of metabolic syndrome and the food intake patterns in adults living in a rural area of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease, is related to an inadequate food intake pattern. Its incidence is increasing among Brazilian adults, including those living in rural areas. Our aim was not only to describe the frequency of MetS in adults with or without MetS but also to compare their food intake pattern as assessed by the healthy eating index (HEI) and serum albumin and C reactive protein (CRP) levels. METHODS: Men and women (n = 246) living in a small village in Brazil were included. MetS was characterized according to the adult treatment panel (ATP III) criteria. Groups were compared by chi-square, student t or Mann-Whitney tests. RESULTS: MetS was diagnosed in 15.4% of the cases. The MetS group showed higher CRP (1.8±1.2 vs. 1.0±0.9 mg/dl) and lower albumin (4.3±0.3 vs. 4.4±0.3 g/dl) serum levels compared to the control group. Additionally, the MetS group showed lower scores (median[range]) in the HEI compared to the control group (53.5[31.2-78.1] vs 58[29.7-89.5], respectively). The MetS group also had decreased scores for total fat and daily variety of food intake. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that adults with MetS displayed chronic mild inflammation and a poorer food intake pattern than the control group.

O abuso de informação privilegiada (insider trading)

In the stock market, information takes on special relevance, due to the market’s permanent updating and the great fluidity of information existent therein. Just as in any other negotiations, the party with the better information has a bargaining advantage, as it is able to make more advantageous business decisions. However, unlike most other markets, the proper functioning of the stock market is greatly dependent on investors’ trust in the market itself. As such, if there are investors who, due to any condition they possess or office they hold, have access to relevant information which is not accessible to the general public, distrust is bred within the market and, consequently, investment is lessened. Thus, there is a need to prevent those who hold privileged information from using it in abusive ways. In Portugal, abuse of privileged information is set out and punished criminally in Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code (‘Código dos Valores Mobiliários’). In this dissertation, I have set out, firstly, to analyze the inherent conditions for there to be a crime of abuse of privileged information; secondly, to analyze two well-known cases, which took place and were decided in other jurisdictions, and attempt to understand how these cases would fall under Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code. Whereas the first case, Chiarella v. United States, was scrutinize under Article 378 of the Portuguese Securities Code, in the second, Lafonta v. AMF, the conclusion arrived at was that the crime taken place was different. This analysis allowed, on one hand, the application to a particular case of prerequisites and concepts which were explained, at a first approach, from a more theoretical perspective; on the other hand, it also allowed the further development of specific aspects of the regime, namely the difference between an insider and a tipee, as well as to more clearly set out the limits to the precise character of the information at hand.

Histopathological study of experimental and natural infections by Trypanosoma cruzi in Didelphis marsupialis

Didelphis marsupialis, the most important sylvatic reservoir of Trypanosoma cruzi, can also maintain in their anal scent glands the multiplicative forms only described in the intestinal tract of triatomine bugs. A study of 21 experimentally and 10 naturally infected opossums with T. cruzi was undertaken in order to establish the histopathological pattern under different conditions. Our results showed that the inflammation was predominantly lymphomacrophagic and more severe in the naturally infected animals but never as intense as those described in Chagas' disease or in other animal models. The parasitism in both groups was always mild with very scarce amastigote nests in the tissues. In the experimentally infected animals, the inflammation was directly related to the presence of amastigotes nests. Four 24 days-old animals, still in embryonic stage, showed multiple amastigotes nests and moderate inflammatory reactions, but even so they survived longer and presented less severe lesions than experimentally infected adult mice. Parasites were found in smooth, cardiac and/or predominantly striated muscles, as well as in nerve cells. Differing from the experimentally infected opossums parasitism in the naturally infected animals predominated in the heart, esophagus and stomach. Parasitism of the scent glands did not affect the histopathological pattern observed in extraglandular tissues.

Ireland and Northern Ireland's Population Health Observatory (INIsPHO)

Ireland and Northern Ireland's Population Health Observatory (INIsPHO) is housed in  The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) and is part of the Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO). The Observatory supports those working to improve health and reduce health inequalities by producing, disseminating and supporting the use of relevant health knowledge and strengthening the research and information infrastructure on the island of Ireland.

Clinical and pathological importance of vacA allele heterogeneity and cagA status in peptic ulcer disease in patients from North Brazil

We have examined the prevalence of gene cagA and vacA alleles in 129 patients, 69 with gastritis and 60 with peptic ulcer diseases from North Brazil and their relation with histopathological data. vacA and cagA genotype were determined by polymerase chain reaction. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was used for histological diagnosis. 96.6% of the patients were colonized by Helicobacter pylori strains harboring single vacA genotype (nont-mixed infection). Among them, 11.8% had subtype s1a, 67.8% had subtype s1b, and 17% subtype s2. In regard to the middle region analysis, m1 alleles were found in 75.4% and m2 in 21.2% of patients. The cagA gene was detected in 78% patients infected with H. pylori and was associated with the s1-m1 vacA genotype. The H. pylori strains, vacA s1b m1/cagA-positive, were associated with increased risk of peptic ulcer disease and higher amounts of lymphocytic and neutrophilic infiltrates and the presence of intestinal metaplasia. These findings show that cagA and vacA genotyping may have clinical relevance in Brazil.