Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

Assessment of the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification by using techniques of mathematical statistics and simulation study

Objectives. This paper seeks to assess the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification in a variety of situations. ^ Methods and results. The effect of misspecification in regression can be approximated by evaluating the correlation between the correct specification and the misspecification of the outcome variable (Harris 2010).In this paper, three misspecified models (linear, categorical and fractional polynomial) were considered. In the first section, the mathematical method of calculating the correlation between correct and misspecified models with simple mathematical forms was derived and demonstrated. In the second section, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007-2008) were used to examine such correlations. Our study shows that comparing to linear or categorical models, the fractional polynomial models, with the higher correlations, provided a better approximation of the true relationship, which was illustrated by LOESS regression. In the third section, we present the results of simulation studies that demonstrate overall misspecification in regression can produce marked decreases in power with small sample sizes. However, the categorical model had greatest power, ranging from 0.877 to 0.936 depending on sample size and outcome variable used. The power of fractional polynomial model was close to that of linear model, which ranged from 0.69 to 0.83, and appeared to be affected by the increased degrees of freedom of this model.^ Conclusion. Correlations between alternative model specifications can be used to provide a good approximation of the effect on statistical power of misspecification when the sample size is large. When model specifications have known simple mathematical forms, such correlations can be calculated mathematically. Actual public health data from NHANES 2007-2008 were used as examples to demonstrate the situations with unknown or complex correct model specification. Simulation of power for misspecified models confirmed the results based on correlation methods but also illustrated the effect of model degrees of freedom on power.^

Development of a tool for designing tests based on statistics and metadata

Background: This project’s idea arose derived of the need of the professors of the department “Computer Languages and Systems and Software Engineering (DLSIIS)” to develop exams with multiple choice questions in a more productive and comfortable way than the one they are currently using. The goal of this project is to develop an application that can be easily used by the professors of the DLSIIS when they need to create a new exam. The main problems of the previous creation process were the difficulty in searching for a question that meets some specific conditions in the previous exam files; and the difficulty for editing exams because of the format of the employed text files. Result: The results shown in this document allow the reader to understand how the final application works and how it addresses successfully every customer need. The elements that will help the reader to understand the application are the structure of the application, the design of the different components, diagrams that show the workflow of the application and some selected fragments of code. Conclusions: The goals stated in the application requirements are finally met. In addition, there are some thoughts about the work performed during the development of the application and how it improved the author skills in web development.

Journal of researches into the natural history and geology of the countries visited during the voyage of H.M.S. Beagle round the world, under the command of Capt. Fitz Roy, R.N.

(1878 printing)

The paradox of alloreactivity and self MHC restriction: Quantitative analysis and statistics

Although 1–24% of T cells are alloreactive, i.e., respond to MHC molecules encoded by a foreign haplotype, it is generally believed that T cells cannot recognize foreign peptides binding foreign MHC molecules. We show using a quantitative model that, if T cell selection and activation are affinity-driven, then an alloreactivity of 1–24% is incompatible with the textbook notion that self MHC restriction is absolute. If an average of 1% of clones are alloreactive, then according to our model, at most 20-fold more clones should, on average, be activated by antigens presented on self MHC than by antigens presented on foreign MHC. This ratio is at best 5 if alloreactivity is 5%. These results describe average properties of the murine immune system, but not the outcome of individual experiments. Using supercomputer technology, we simulated 100,000 MHC restriction experiments. Although the average restriction ratio was 7.1, restriction was absolute in 10% of the simulated experiments, greater than 100, although not absolute, in 29%, and below 6 in 24%. This extreme variability agrees with experimental estimates. Our analysis suggests that alloreactivity and average self MHC restriction both cannot be high, but that a low average restriction level is compatible with high levels in a significant number of experiments.

Comparative wages, prices, and cost of living: (from the Sixteenth annual report of the Massachusetts Bureau of Statistics of Labor, for 1885)

Historical review of wages and prices. 1752-1860 -- Comparative wages, prices, and cost of living: Massachusetts and Great Britain. 1860-1883.

Time factors of differentially preserved wood in two calcitic concretions in Pennsylvanian black shale from Indiana / Bertram G. Woodland -- and Catherine K. Richardson --.

v.33:no.10(1975)

A classification of the Conularida / G. Winston Sinclair, Dept. of Geology, University of Michigan.

v.10:no.13(1952)

Athapaskan clothing and related objects in the collections of Field Museum of Natural History / James W. VanStone, Curator, North American Archaeology and Ethnology, Dept. of Anthropology, Field Museum of Natural History.

n.s. no.4(1981)