Sustainable grazing management for temporal and spatial variability in north Australian rangelands – a synthesis of the latest evidence and recommendations

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable grazing management in northern Australia, with management often complicated further by large, spatially-heterogeneous paddocks. This paper presents the latest grazing research and associated bio-economic modelling from northern Australia and assesses the extent to which current recommendations to manage for these issues are supported. Overall, stocking around the safe long-term carrying capacity will maintain land condition and maximise long-term profitability. However, stocking rates should be varied in a risk-averse manner as pasture availability varies between years. Periodic wet-season spelling is also essential to maintain pasture condition and allow recovery of overgrazed areas. Uneven grazing distributions can be partially managed through fencing, providing additional water-points and in some cases patch-burning, although the economics of infrastructure development are extremely context-dependent. Overall, complex multi-paddock grazing systems do not appear justified in northern Australia. Provided the key management principles outlined above are applied in an active, adaptive manner, acceptable economic and environmental outcomes will be achieved irrespective of the grazing system applied.

Ground cover management alters development of Fusarium wilt symptoms in Ducasse bananas

Many banana producing regions around the world experience climate variability as a result of seasonal rainfall and temperature conditions, which result in sub-optimal conditions for banana production. This can create periods of plant stress which impact on plant growth, development and yields. Furthermore, diseases such as Fusarium wilt caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense, can become more predominant following periods of environmental stress, particularly for many culturally significant cultivars such as Ducasse (synonym Pisang Awak) (Musa ABB). The aim of this experiment was to determine if expression of symptoms of Fusarium wilt of bananas in a susceptible cultivar could be explained by environmental conditions, and if soil management could reduce the impact of the disease and increase production. An experiment was established in an abandoned commercial field of Ducasse bananas with a high incidence of Fusarium wilt. Vegetated ground cover was maintained around the base of banana plants and compared with plants grown in bare soil for changes in growth, production and disease symptoms. Expression of Fusarium wilt was found to be a function of water stress potential and the heat unit requirement for bananas. The inclusion of vegetative ground cover around the base of the banana plants significantly reduced the severity and incidence of Fusarium wilt by 20 % and altered the periods of symptom development. The growth of bananas and development of the bunch followed the accumulated heat units, with a greater number of bunched plants evident during warmer periods of the year. The weight of bunches harvested in a second crop cycle was increased when banana plants were grown in areas with vegetative ground cover, with fewer losses of plants due to Fusarium wilt.

Stay-green alleles individually enhance grain yield in sorghum under drought by modifying canopy development and water uptake patterns

* Stay-green is an integrated drought adaptation trait characterized by a distinct green leaf phenotype during grain filling under terminal drought. We used sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a repository of drought adaptation mechanisms, to elucidate the physiological and genetic mechanisms underpinning stay-green. * Near-isogenic sorghum lines (cv RTx7000) were characterized in a series of field and managed-environment trials (seven experiments and 14 environments) to determine the influence of four individual stay-green (Stg1–4) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on canopy development, water use and grain yield under post-anthesis drought. * The Stg QTL decreased tillering and the size of upper leaves, which reduced canopy size at anthesis. This reduction in transpirational leaf area conserved soil water before anthesis for use during grain filling. Increased water uptake during grain filling of Stg near-isogenic lines (NILs) relative to RTx7000 resulted in higher post-anthesis biomass production, grain number and yield. Importantly, there was no consistent yield penalty associated with the Stg QTL in the irrigated control. * These results establish a link between the role of the Stg QTL in modifying canopy development and the subsequent impact on crop water use patterns and grain yield under terminal drought.

Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt – spatial and temporal trends

* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from −5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from −5 to −30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.

Low temperature exposure of root system and inflorescence affected flowering and fruit set in 'Chardonnay' grapevines (Vitis vinifera)

The mechanisms by which low temperature affects flowering and fruit set of grapevines are poorly understood, as is the specific response of the grapevine root system and inflorescence to low temperature effects that reduce fruit set. This study aimed to determine the responses of the root system and inflorescence of the grapevine 'Chardonnay' to low temperature (10 degrees C) during flowering, and considered the possible mechanisms of low temperature effects on those parts. Temperature treatments of 10 degrees C or 20 degrees C were imposed to potted 'Chardonnay' grapevines in a glasshouse for up to two weeks during the early stages of flowering. When the root system alone was exposed to 10 degrees C (with the rest of the plant at 20 degrees C) during flowering, the number of attached berries and percentage fruit set were significantly reduced by 50 % than when the root system alone was exposed to 20 degrees C. Whereas, exposure of the inflorescence alone to 10 degrees C (with the rest of the plant at 20 degrees C) delayed flowering, allowed rachis to grow longer, and increased both the number of attached berries (from 22 to 62 per vine) and fruit set (from 8 % to, 20 %), than when the inflorescence alone was exposed to 20 degrees C. This study will enhance our understanding of the possible mechanisms of low temperature effects on grapevine fruit set and productivity.

Good science for improving policy: greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural manures

Australia’s and New Zealand’s major agricultural manure management emission sources are reported to be, in descending order of magnitude: (1) methane (CH4) from dairy farms in both countries; (2) CH4 from pig farms in Australia; and nitrous oxide (N2O) from (3) beef feedlots and (4) poultry sheds in Australia. We used literature to critically review these inventory estimates. Alarmingly for dairy farm CH4 (1), our review revealed assumptions and omissions that when addressed could dramatically increase this emission estimate. The estimate of CH4 from Australian pig farms (2) appears to be accurate, according to industry data and field measurements. The N2O emission estimates for beef feedlots (3) and poultry sheds (4) are based on northern hemisphere default factors whose appropriateness for Australia is questionable and unverified. Therefore, most of Australasia’s key livestock manure management greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profiles are either questionable or are unsubstantiated by region-specific research. Encouragingly, GHG from dairy shed manure are relatively easy to mitigate because they are a point source which can be managed by several ‘close-to-market’ abatement solutions. Reducing these manure emissions therefore constitutes an opportunity for meaningful action sooner compared with the more difficult-to-implement and long-term strategies that currently dominate agricultural GHG mitigation research. At an international level, our review highlights the critical need to carefully reassess GHG emission profiles, particularly if such assessments have not been made since the compilation of original inventories. Failure to act in this regard presents the very real risk of missing the ‘low hanging fruit’ in the rush towards a meaningful response to climate change

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Modelling the effect of plant water use traits on yield and stay-green expression in sorghum

Post-rainy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) production underpins the livelihood of millions in the semiarid tropics, where the crop is affected by drought. Drought scenarios have been classified and quantified using crop simulation. In this report, variation in traits that hypothetically contribute to drought adaptation (plant growth dynamics, canopy and root water conducting capacity, drought stress responses) were virtually introgressed into the most common post-rainy sorghum genotype, and the influence of these traits on plant growth, development, and grain and stover yield were simulated across different scenarios. Limited transpiration rates under high vapour pressure deficit had the highest positive effect on production, especially combined with enhanced water extraction capacity at the root level. Variability in leaf development (smaller canopy size, later plant vigour or increased leaf appearance rate) also increased grain yield under severe drought, although it caused a stover yield trade-off under milder stress. Although the leaf development response to soil drying varied, this trait had only a modest benefit on crop production across all stress scenarios. Closer dissection of the model outputs showed that under water limitation, grain yield was largely determined by the amount of water availability after anthesis, and this relationship became closer with stress severity. All traits investigated increased water availability after anthesis and caused a delay in leaf senescence and led to a ‘stay-green’ phenotype. In conclusion, we showed that breeding success remained highly probabilistic; maximum resilience and economic benefits depended on drought frequency. Maximum potential could be explored by specific combinations of traits.

Sorghum genotypes differ in high temperature responses for seed set

Significant genotypic differences in tolerance of pollen germination and seed set to high temperatures have been shown in sorghum. However, it is unclear whether differences were associated with variation in either the threshold temperature above which reproductive processes are affected, or in the tolerance to increased temperature above that threshold. The objectives of this study were to (a) dissect known differences in heat tolerance for a range of sorghum genotypes into differences in the threshold temperature and tolerance to increased temperatures, (b) determine whether poor seed set under high temperatures can be compensated by increased seed mass, and (c) identify whether genotypic differences in heat tolerance in a controlled environment facility (CEF) can be reproduced in field conditions. Twenty genotypes were grown in a CEF under four day/night temperatures (31.9/21.0 °C, 32.8/21.0 °C, 36.1/21.0 °C, and 38.0/21.0 °C), and a subset of six genotypes was grown in the field under four different temperature regimes around anthesis. The novelty of the findings in this study related to differences in responsiveness to high temperature—genotypic differences in seed set percentage were found for both the threshold temperature and the tolerance to increased maximum temperature above that threshold. Further, the response of seed set to high temperature in the field study was well correlated to that in the CEF (R2 = 0.69), although the slope was significantly less than unity, indicating that heat stress effects may have been diluted under the variable field conditions. Poor seed set was not compensated by increased seed mass in either CEF or field environments. Grain yield was thus closely related to seed set percentage. This result demonstrates the potential for development of a low-cost field screening method to identify high-temperature tolerant varieties that could deliver sustainable yields under future warmer climates.

Assessing refrigerating and freezing effects on the biological/chemical composition of two livestock manures

Assessing storage impacts on manure properties is relevant to research associated with nutrient-use efficiency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We examined the impact of cold storage on physicochemical properties, biochemical methane-emitting potential (BMP) and the composition of microbial communities of beef feedlot manure and poultry broiler litter. Manures were analysed within 2 days of collection and after 2 and 8 weeks in refrigerated (4 °C) or frozen (–20 °C) storage. Compared with fresh manure, stored manures had statistically significant (p < 0.05) but comparatively minor (<10%) changes in electrical conductivity, chloride and ammonium concentrations. Refrigeration and freezing did not significantly affect (p > 0.05) BMP in both manure types. We did not detect ammonium- or nitrite-oxidising bacterial taxa (AOB, NOB) using fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH). Importantly, the viability of microbes was unchanged by storage. We conclude that storage at –20 °C or 4 °C adequately preserves the investigated traits of the studied manures for research aimed at improving nutrient cycling and reducing GHG emissions.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Legume pastures can reduce N2O emissions intensity in subtropical cereal cropping systems

Alternative sources of N are required to bolster subtropical cereal production without increasing N2O emissions from these agro-ecosystems. The reintroduction of legumes in cereal cropping systems is a possible strategy to reduce synthetic N inputs but elevated N2O losses have sometimes been observed after the incorporation of legume residues. However, the magnitude of these losses is highly dependent on local conditions and very little data are available for subtropical regions. The aim of this study was to assess whether, under subtropical conditions, the N mineralised from legume residues can substantially decrease the synthetic N input required by the subsequent cereal crop and reduce overall N2O emissions during the cereal cropping phase. Using a fully automated measuring system, N2O emissions were monitored in a cereal crop (sorghum) following a legume pasture and compared to the same crop in rotation with a grass pasture. Each crop rotation included a nil and a fertilised treatment to assess the N availability of the residues. The incorporation of legumes provided enough readily available N to effectively support crop development but the low labile C left by these residues is likely to have limited denitrification and therefore N2O emissions. As a result, N2O emissions intensities (kgN2O-N yield-1ha-1) were considerably lower in the legume histories than in the grass. Overall, these findings indicate that the C supplied by the crop residue can be more important than the soil NO3 - content in stimulating denitrification and that introducing a legume pasture in a subtropical cereal cropping system is a sustainable practice from both environmental and agronomic perspectives.

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted ‘climate roundtables’ in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.