Design concept evaluation based on rough number and information entropy theory

Concept evaluation at the early phase of product development plays a crucial role in new product development. It determines the direction of the subsequent design activities. However, the evaluation information at this stage mainly comes from experts' judgments, which is subjective and imprecise. How to manage the subjectivity to reduce the evaluation bias is a big challenge in design concept evaluation. This paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method which combines information entropy theory and rough number. Rough number is first presented to aggregate individual judgments and priorities and to manipulate the vagueness under a group decision-making environment. A rough number based information entropy method is proposed to determine the relative weights of evaluation criteria. The composite performance values based on rough number are then calculated to rank the candidate design concepts. The results from a practical case study on the concept evaluation of an industrial robot design show that the integrated evaluation model can effectively strengthen the objectivity across the decision-making processes.

The Role of Social Cognition and Person Perception in Economic Social Decision-Making

Social decision-making is often complex, requiring the decision-maker to make social inferences about another person in addition to engaging traditional decision-making processes. However, until recently, much research in neuroeconomics and behavioral economics has examined social decision-making while failing to take into account the importance of the social context and social cognitive processes that are engaged when viewing another person. Using social psychological theory to guide our hypotheses, four research studies investigate the role of social cognition and person perception in guiding economic decisions made in social contexts. The first study (Chapter 2) demonstrates that only specific types of social information engage brain regions implicated in social cognition and hinder learning in social contexts. Study 2 (Chapter 3) extends these findings and examines contexts in which this social information is used to generalize across contexts to form predictions about another person’s behavior. Study 3 (Chapter 4) demonstrates that under certain contexts these social cognitive processes may be withheld in order to more effectively complete the task at hand. Last, Study 4 (Chapter 5) examines how this knowledge of social cognitive processing can be used to change behavior in a prosocial group context. Taken together, these studies add to the growing body of literature examining decision-making in social contexts and highlight the importance of social cognitive processing in guiding these decisions. Although social cognitive processing typically facilitates social interactions, these processes may alter economic decision-making in social contexts.

Social Decision-Making in Bonobos and Chimpanzees

Humans are natural politicians. We obsessively collect social information that is both observable (e.g., about third-party relationships) and unobservable (e.g., about others’ psychological states), and we strategically employ that information to manage our cooperative and competitive relationships. To what extent are these abilities unique to our species, and how did they evolve? The present dissertation seeks to contribute to these two questions. To do so, I take a comparative perspective, investigating social decision-making in humans’ closest living relatives, bonobos and chimpanzees. In Chapter 1, I review existing literature on theory of mind—or the ability to understand others’ psychological states—in these species. I also present a theoretical framework to guide further investigation of social cognition in bonobos and chimpanzees based on hypotheses about the proximate and ultimate origins of their species differences. In Chapter 2, I experimentally investigate differences in the prosocial behavior of bonobos and chimpanzees, revealing species-specific prosocial motivations that appear to be less flexible than those exhibited by humans. In Chapter 3, I explore through decision-making experiments bonobos’ ability to evaluate others based on their prosocial or antisocial behavior during third-party interactions. Bonobos do track the interactions of third-parties and evaluate actors based on these interactions. However, they do not exhibit the human preference for those who are prosocial towards others, instead consistently favoring an antisocial individual. The motivation to prefer those who demonstrate a prosocial disposition may be a unique feature of human psychology that contributes to our ultra-cooperative nature. In Chapter 4, I investigate the adaptive value of social cognition in wild primates. I show that the recruitment behavior of wild chimpanzees at Gombe National Park, Tanzania is consistent with the use of third-party knowledge, and that those who appear to use third-party knowledge receive immediate proximate benefits. They escape further aggression from their opponents. These findings directly support the social intelligence hypothesis that social cognition has evolved in response to the demands of competing with one’s own group-mates. Thus, the studies presented here help to better characterize the features of social decision-making that are unique to humans, and how these abilities evolved.

Theory and Practice in Sustainability Science: Influence of Urban Form on the Urban Heat Island and Implications for Urban Systems

As the world population continues to grow past seven billion people and global challenges continue to persist including resource availability, biodiversity loss, climate change and human well-being, a new science is required that can address the integrated nature of these challenges and the multiple scales on which they are manifest. Sustainability science has emerged to fill this role. In the fifteen years since it was first called for in the pages of Science, it has rapidly matured, however its place in the history of science and the way it is practiced today must be continually evaluated. In Part I, two chapters address this theoretical and practical grounding. Part II transitions to the applied practice of sustainability science in addressing the urban heat island (UHI) challenge wherein the climate of urban areas are warmer than their surrounding rural environs. The UHI has become increasingly important within the study of earth sciences given the increased focus on climate change and as the balance of humans now live in urban areas.

In Chapter 2 a novel contribution to the historical context of sustainability is argued. Sustainability as a concept characterizing the relationship between humans and nature emerged in the mid to late 20th century as a response to findings used to also characterize the Anthropocene. Emerging from the human-nature relationships that came before it, evidence is provided that suggests Sustainability was enabled by technology and a reorientation of world-view and is unique in its global boundary, systematic approach and ambition for both well being and the continued availability of resources and Earth system function. Sustainability is further an ambition that has wide appeal, making it one of the first normative concepts of the Anthropocene.

Despite its widespread emergence and adoption, sustainability science continues to suffer from definitional ambiguity within the academe. In Chapter 3, a review of efforts to provide direction and structure to the science reveals a continuum of approaches anchored at either end by differing visions of how the science interfaces with practice (solutions). At one end, basic science of societally defined problems informs decisions about possible solutions and their application. At the other end, applied research directly affects the options available to decision makers. While clear from the literature, survey data further suggests that the dichotomy does not appear to be as apparent in the minds of practitioners.

In Chapter 4, the UHI is first addressed at the synoptic, mesoscale. Urban climate is the most immediate manifestation of the warming global climate for the majority of people on earth. Nearly half of those people live in small to medium sized cities, an understudied scale in urban climate research. Widespread characterization would be useful to decision makers in planning and design. Using a multi-method approach, the mesoscale UHI in the study region is characterized and the secular trend over the last sixty years evaluated. Under isolated ideal conditions the findings indicate a UHI of 5.3 ± 0.97 °C to be present in the study area, the magnitude of which is growing over time.

Although urban heat islands (UHI) are well studied, there remain no panaceas for local scale mitigation and adaptation methods, therefore continued attention to characterization of the phenomenon in urban centers of different scales around the globe is required. In Chapter 5, a local scale analysis of the canopy layer and surface UHI in a medium sized city in North Carolina, USA is conducted using multiple methods including stationary urban sensors, mobile transects and remote sensing. Focusing on the ideal conditions for UHI development during an anticyclonic summer heat event, the study observes a range of UHI intensity depending on the method of observation: 8.7 °C from the stationary urban sensors; 6.9 °C from mobile transects; and, 2.2 °C from remote sensing. Additional attention is paid to the diurnal dynamics of the UHI and its correlation with vegetation indices, dewpoint and albedo. Evapotranspiration is shown to drive dynamics in the study region.

Finally, recognizing that a bridge must be established between the physical science community studying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the planning community and decision makers implementing urban form and development policies, Chapter 6 evaluates multiple urban form characterization methods. Methods evaluated include local climate zones (LCZ), national land cover database (NCLD) classes and urban cluster analysis (UCA) to determine their utility in describing the distribution of the UHI based on three standard observation types 1) fixed urban temperature sensors, 2) mobile transects and, 3) remote sensing. Bivariate, regression and ANOVA tests are used to conduct the analyses. Findings indicate that the NLCD classes are best correlated to the UHI intensity and distribution in the study area. Further, while the UCA method is not useful directly, the variables included in the method are predictive based on regression analysis so the potential for better model design exists. Land cover variables including albedo, impervious surface fraction and pervious surface fraction are found to dominate the distribution of the UHI in the study area regardless of observation method.

Chapter 7 provides a summary of findings, and offers a brief analysis of their implications for both the scientific discourse generally, and the study area specifically. In general, the work undertaken does not achieve the full ambition of sustainability science, additional work is required to translate findings to practice and more fully evaluate adoption. The implications for planning and development in the local region are addressed in the context of a major light-rail infrastructure project including several systems level considerations like human health and development. Finally, several avenues for future work are outlined. Within the theoretical development of sustainability science, these pathways include more robust evaluations of the theoretical and actual practice. Within the UHI context, these include development of an integrated urban form characterization model, application of study methodology in other geographic areas and at different scales, and use of novel experimental methods including distributed sensor networks and citizen science.

Dispute resolution outside of courts: procedural justice and decision acceptance among users of ombuds services in the UK

Attitudes towards legal authorities based on theories of procedural justice have been explored extensively in the criminal and civil justice systems. This has provided considerable empirical evidence concerning the importance of trust and legitimacy in generating cooperation, compliance and decision acceptance. However, not enough attention has been paid to attitudes towards institutions of informal dispute resolution. This paper asks whether the theory of procedural justice applies to the alternative dispute resolution (ADR) context, focusing on ombuds services. What are the predictors of perceptions of procedural justice during the process of dealing with an ombuds, and what factors shape outcome acceptance? These questions are analyzed using a sample of recent ombuds users. The results indicate that outcome favorability is highly correlated with perceived procedural justice, and both predict decision acceptance.

Equitable representation in councils: theory and an application to the United Nations Security Council

We analyze democratic equity in council voting games (CVGs). In a CVG, a voting body containing all members delegates decision-making to a (time-varying) subset of its members, as describes, e.g., the relationship between the United Nations General Assembly and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing democratic equitability in CVGs at both the country and region levels, and for different assumptions regarding preference correlation. We apply the framework to evaluate the equitability of the UNSC, and the claims of those who seek to reform it. We find that the individual permanent members are overrepresented by between 21.3 times (United Kingdom) and 3.8 times (China) from a country-level perspective, while from a region perspective Eastern Europe is the most heavily overrepresented region with more than twice its equitable representation, and Africa the most heavily underrepresented. Our equity measures do not preclude some UNSC members from exercising veto rights, however.

Behavior change theory, content and delivery of interventions to enhance adherence in chronic respiratory disease: A systematic review

Background: We sought to describe the theory used to design treatment adherence interventions, the content delivered, and the mode of delivery of these interventions in chronic respiratory disease. Methods: We included randomized controlled trials of adherence interventions (compared to another intervention or control) in adults with chronic respiratory disease (8 databases searched; inception until March 2015). Two reviewers screened and extracted data: post-intervention adherence (measured objectively); behavior change theory, content (grouped into psychological, education and self-management/supportive, telemonitoring, shared decision-making); and delivery. “Effective” studies were those with p < 0.05 for adherence rate between groups. We conducted a narrative synthesis and assessed risk of bias. Results: 12,488 articles screened; 46 included studies (n = 42,91% in OSA or asthma) testing 58 interventions (n = 27, 47% were effective). Nineteen (33%) interventions (15 studies) used 12 different behavior change theories. Use of theory (n = 11,41%) was more common amongst effective interventions. Interventions were mainly educational, self-management or supportive interventions (n = 27,47%). They were commonly delivered by a doctor (n = 20,23%), in face-to-face (n = 48,70%), one-to-one (n = 45,78%) outpatient settings (n = 46,79%) across 2–5 sessions (n = 26,45%) for 1–3 months (n = 26,45%). Doctors delivered a lower proportion (n = 7,18% vs n = 13,28%) and pharmacists (n = 6,15% vs n = 1,2%) a higher proportion of effective than ineffective interventions. Risk of bias was high in >1 domain (n = 43, 93%) in most studies. Conclusions: Behavior change theory was more commonly used to design effective interventions. Few adherence interventions have been developed using theory, representing a gap between intervention design recommendations and research practice.

Interprofessional collaboration in nursing homes (interprof): A grounded theory study of general practitioner experiences and strategies to perform nursing home visits

Background: Interprofessionalism, considered as collaboration between medical professionals, has gained prominence over recent decades and evidence for its impact has grown. The steadily increasing number of residents in nursing homes will challenge medical care and the interaction across professions, especially nurses and general practitioners (GPS). The nursing home visit, a key element of medical care, has been underrepresented in research. This study explores GP perspectives on interprofessional collaboration with a focus on their visits to nursing homes in order to understand their experiences and expectations. This research represents an aspect of the interprof study, which explores medical care needs as well as the perceived collaboration and communication by nursing home residents, their families, GPS and nurses. This paper focusses on GPS' views, investigating in particular their visits to nursing homes in order to understand their experiences. Methods: Open guideline-interviews covering interprofessional collaboration and the visit process were conducted with 30 GPS in three study centers and analyzed with grounded theory methodology. GPS were recruited via postal request and existing networks of the research partners. Results: Four different types of nursing home visits were found: visits on demand, periodical visits, nursing home rounds and ad-hoc-decision based visits. We identified the core category "productive performance" of home visits in nursing homes which stands for the balance of GPŚ individual efforts and rewards. GPS used different strategies to perform a productive home visit: preparing strategies, on-site strategies and investing strategies. Conclusion: We compiled a theory of GPS home visits in nursing homes in Germany. The findings will be useful for research, and scientific and management purposes to generate a deeper understanding of GP perspectives and thereby improve interprofessional collaboration to ensure a high quality of care.

Structured decision making as a tool for facilitating stakeholder engagement in non-renewable resource management: using the case study of hydraulic fracturing in the Green Point Shale formation in western Newfoundland

This thesis examines the importance of effective stakeholder engagement that complies with the doctrines of social justice in non-renewable resources management decision-making. It uses hydraulic fracturing in the Green Point Shale Formation in Western Newfoundland as a case study. The thesis uses as theoretical background John Rawls’ and David Miller’ theory of social justice, and identifies the social justice principles, which are relevant to stakeholder engagement. The thesis compares the method of stakeholder engagement employed by the Newfoundland and Labrador Hydraulic Fracturing Review Panel (NLHFRP), with the stakeholder engagement techniques recommended by the Structured Decision Making (SDM) model, as applied to a simulated case study involving hydraulic fracturing in the Green Point Shale Formation. Using the already identified social justice principles, the thesis then developed a framework to measure the level of compliance of both stakeholder engagement techniques with social justice principles. The main finding of the thesis is that the engagement techniques prescribed by the SDM model comply more closely with the doctrines of social justice than the engagement techniques applied by the NLHFRP. The thesis concludes by recommending that the SDM model be more widely used in non- renewable resource management decision making in order to ensure that all stakeholders’ concerns are effectively heard, understood and transparently incorporated in the nonrenewable resource policies to make them consistent with local priorities and goals, and with the social justice norms and institutions.

Neural representations of social and non-social uncertainty in human decision making

The social landscape is filled with an intricate web of species-specific desired objects and course of actions. Humans are highly social animals and, as they navigate this landscape, they need to produce adapted decision-making behaviour. Traditionally social and non-social neural mechanisms affecting choice have been investigated using different approaches. Recently, in an effort to unite these findings, two main theories have been proposed to explain how the brain might encode social and non-social motivational decision-making: the extended common currency and the social valuation specific schema (Ruff & Fehr 2014). One way to test these theories is to directly compare neural activity related to social and non-social decision outcomes within the same experimental setting. Here we address this issue by focusing on the neural substrates of social and non-social forms of uncertainty. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) we directly compared the neural representations of reward and risk prediction and errors (RePE and RiPE) in social and non- social situations using gambling games. We used a trust betting game to vary uncertainty along a social dimension (trustworthiness), and a card game (Preuschoff et al. 2006) to vary uncertainty along a non-social dimension (pure risk). The trust game was designed to maintain the same structure of the card game. In a first study, we exposed a divide between subcortical and cortical regions when comparing the way these regions process social and non-social forms of uncertainty during outcome anticipation. Activity in subcortical regions reflected social and non-social RePE, while activity in cortical regions correlated with social RePE and non-social RiPE. The second study focused on outcome delivery and integrated the concept of RiPE in non-social settings with that of fairness and monetary utility maximisation in social settings. In particular these results corroborate recent models of anterior insula function (Singer et al. 2009; Seth 2013), and expose a possible neural mechanism that weights fairness and uncertainty but not monetary utility. The third study focused on functionally defined regions of the early visual cortex (V1) showing how activity in these areas, traditionally considered only visual, might reflect motivational prediction errors in addition to known perceptual prediction mechanisms (den Ouden et al 2012). On the whole, while our results do not support unilaterally one or the other theory modeling the underlying neural dynamics of social and non-social forms of decision making, they provide a working framework where both general mechanisms might coexist.

Using an end-of-life care pathway in acute stroke: a mixed methods study of decision-making and care experiences

Background: The evidence base on end-of-life care in acute stroke is limited, particularly with regard to recognising dying and related decision-making. There is also limited evidence to support the use of end-of-life care pathways (standardised care plans) for patients who are dying after stroke. Aim: This study aimed to explore the clinical decision-making involved in placing patients on an end-of-life care pathway, evaluate predictors of care pathway use, and investigate the role of families in decision-making. The study also aimed to examine experiences of end-of-life care pathway use for stroke patients, their relatives and the multi-disciplinary health care team. Methods: A mixed methods design was adopted. Data were collected in four Scottish acute stroke units. Case-notes were identified prospectively from 100 consecutive stroke deaths and reviewed. Multivariate analysis was performed on case-note data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 relatives of stroke decedents and 23 healthcare professionals, using a modified grounded theory approach to collect and analyse data. The VOICES survey tool was also administered to the bereaved relatives and data were analysed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis of free-text responses. Results: Relatives often played an important role in influencing aspects of end-of-life care, including decisions to use an end-of-life care pathway. Some relatives experienced enduring distress with their perceived responsibility for care decisions. Relatives felt unprepared for and were distressed by prolonged dying processes, which were often associated with severe dysphagia. Pro-active information-giving by staff was reported as supportive by relatives. Healthcare professionals generally avoided discussing place of care with families. Decisions to use an end-of-life care pathway were not predicted by patients’ demographic characteristics; decisions were generally made in consultation with families and the extended health care team, and were made within regular working hours. Conclusion: Distressing stroke-related issues were more prominent in participants’ accounts than concerns with the end-of-life care pathway used. Relatives sometimes perceived themselves as responsible for important clinical decisions. Witnessing prolonged dying processes was difficult for healthcare professionals and families, particularly in relation to the management of persistent major swallowing difficulties.

Emotional Theory of Rationality

In recent decades, it has been definitely established the existence of a close relationship between the emotional phenomena and rational processes, but we still do not have a unified definition, or effective models to describe any of them well. To advance our understanding of the mechanisms governing the behavior of living beings we must integrate multiple theories, experiments and models from both fields. In this paper we propose a new theoretical framework that allows integrating and understanding, from a functional point of view, the emotion-cognition duality. Our reasoning, based on evolutionary principles, add to the definition and understanding of emotion, justifying its origin, explaining its mission and dynamics, and linking it to higher cognitive processes, mainly with attention, cognition, decision-making and consciousness. According to our theory, emotions are the mechanism for brain function optimization, besides being the contingency and stimuli prioritization system. As a result of this approach, we have developed a dynamic systems-level model capable of providing plausible explanations for some psychological and behavioral phenomena, and establish a new framework for scientific definition of some fundamental psychological terms.

Identifying and enhancing risk thresholds in the detection of elder financial abuse: A signal detection analysis of professionals' decision making

Background: Financial abuse of elders is an under acknowledged problem and professionals' judgements contribute to both the prevalence of abuse and the ability to prevent and intervene. In the absence of a definitive "gold standard" for the judgement, it is desirable to try and bring novice professionals' judgemental risk thresholds to the level of competent professionals as quickly and effectively as possible. This study aimed to test if a training intervention was able to bring novices' risk thresholds for financial abuse in line with expert opinion. Methods: A signal detection analysis, within a randomised controlled trial of an educational intervention, was undertaken to examine the effect on the ability of novices to efficiently detect financial abuse. Novices (n = 154) and experts (n = 33) judged "certainty of risk" across 43 scenarios; whether a scenario constituted a case of financial abuse or not was a function of expert opinion. Novices (n = 154) were randomised to receive either an on-line educational intervention to improve financial abuse detection (n = 78) or a control group (no on-line educational intervention, n = 76). Both groups examined 28 scenarios of abuse (11 "signal" scenarios of risk and 17 "noise" scenarios of no risk). After the intervention group had received the on-line training, both groups then examined 15 further scenarios (5 "signal" and 10 "noise" scenarios). Results: Experts were more certain than the novices, pre (Mean 70.61 vs. 58.04) and post intervention (Mean 70.84 vs. 63.04); and more consistent. The intervention group (mean 64.64) were more certain of abuse post-intervention than the control group (mean 61.41, p = 0.02). Signal detection analysis of sensitivity (Á) and bias (C) revealed that this was due to the intervention shifting the novices' tendency towards saying "at risk" (C post intervention -.34) and away from their pre intervention levels of bias (C-.12). Receiver operating curves revealed more efficient judgments in the intervention group. Conclusion: An educational intervention can improve judgements of financial abuse amongst novice professionals.

Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

Doutoramento em Gestão

Assessing Decision Making Skill in Complex and Dynamic Environments Using Representative and Simulated Tasks

Traditional decision making research has often focused on one's ability to choose from a set of prefixed options, ignoring the process by which decision makers generate courses of action (i.e., options) in-situ (Klein, 1993). In complex and dynamic domains, this option generation process is particularly critical to understanding how successful decisions are made (Zsambok & Klein, 1997). When generating response options for oneself to pursue (i.e., during the intervention-phase of decision making) previous research has supported quick and intuitive heuristics, such as the Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003). When generating predictive options for others in the environment (i.e., during the assessment-phase of decision making), previous research has supported the situational-model-building process described by Long Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; see Ward, Ericsson, & Williams, 2013). In the first three experiments, the claims of TTF and LTWM are tested during assessment- and intervention-phase tasks in soccer. To test what other environmental constraints may dictate the use of these cognitive mechanisms, the claims of these models are also tested in the presence and absence of time pressure. In addition to understanding the option generation process, it is important that researchers in complex and dynamic domains also develop tools that can be used by `real-world' professionals. For this reason, three more experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a new online assessment of perceptual-cognitive skill in soccer. This test differentiated between skill groups and predicted performance on a previously established test and predicted option generation behavior. The test also outperformed domain-general cognitive tests, but not a domain-specific knowledge test when predicting skill group membership. Implications for theory and training, and future directions for the development of applied tools are discussed.