A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Model-based clustering in gene expression microarrays: An application to breast cancer data

In microarray studies, the application of clustering techniques is often used to derive meaningful insights into the data. In the past, hierarchical methods have been the primary clustering tool employed to perform this task. The hierarchical algorithms have been mainly applied heuristically to these cluster analysis problems. Further, a major limitation of these methods is their inability to determine the number of clusters. Thus there is a need for a model-based approach to these. clustering problems. To this end, McLachlan et al. [7] developed a mixture model-based algorithm (EMMIX-GENE) for the clustering of tissue samples. To further investigate the EMMIX-GENE procedure as a model-based -approach, we present a case study involving the application of EMMIX-GENE to the breast cancer data as studied recently in van 't Veer et al. [10]. Our analysis considers the problem of clustering the tissue samples on the basis of the genes which is a non-standard problem because the number of genes greatly exceed the number of tissue samples. We demonstrate how EMMIX-GENE can be useful in reducing the initial set of genes down to a more computationally manageable size. The results from this analysis also emphasise the difficulty associated with the task of separating two tissue groups on the basis of a particular subset of genes. These results also shed light on why supervised methods have such a high misallocation error rate for the breast cancer data.

Towards a complex model of cooperative learning

Este artigo é uma introdução à teoria do paradigma desconstrutivo de aprendizagem cooperativa. Centenas de estudos provam com evidências o facto de que as estruturas e os processos de aprendizagem cooperativa aumentam o desempenho académico, reforçam as competências de aprendizagem ao longo da vida e desenvolvem competências sociais, pessoais de cada aluno de uma forma mais eficaz e usta, comparativamente às estruturas tradicionais de aprendizagem nas escolas. Enfrentando os desafios dos nossos sistemas educativos, seria interessante elaborar o quadro teórico do discurso da aprendizagem cooperativa, dos últimos 40 anos, a partir de um aspeto prático dentro do contexto teórico e metodológico. Nas últimas décadas, o discurso cooperativo elaborou os elementos práticos e teóricos de estruturas e processos de aprendizagem cooperativa. Gostaríamos de fazer um resumo desses elementos com o objetivo de compreender que tipo de mudanças estruturais podem fazer diferenças reais na prática de ensino e aprendizagem. Os princípios básicos de estruturas cooperativas, os papéis de cooperação e as atitudes cooperativas são os principais elementos que podemos brevemente descrever aqui, de modo a criar um quadro para a compreensão teórica e prática de como podemos sugerir os elementos de aprendizagem cooperativa na nossa prática em sala de aula. Na minha perspetiva, esta complexa teoria da aprendizagem cooperativa pode ser entendida como um paradigma desconstrutivo que fornece algumas respostas pragmáticas para as questões da nossa prática educativa quotidiana, a partir do nível da sala de aula para o nível de sistema educativo, com foco na destruição de estruturas hierárquicas e antidemocráticas de aprendizagem e, criando, ao mesmo tempo, as estruturas cooperativas.

Logistic optimization in tourism networks

55th European Regional Science Association Congress, Lisbon, Portugal (25-28 August 2015).

Supplier's selection model based on an empirical study

The problem of selecting suppliers/partners is a crucial and important part in the process of decision making for companies that intend to perform competitively in their area of activity. The selection of supplier/partner is a time and resource-consuming task that involves data collection and a careful analysis of the factors that can positively or negatively influence the choice. Nevertheless it is a critical process that affects significantly the operational performance of each company. In this work, there were identified five broad selection criteria: Quality, Financial, Synergies, Cost, and Production System. Within these criteria, it was also included five sub-criteria. After the identification criteria, a survey was elaborated and companies were contacted in order to understand which factors have more weight in their decisions to choose the partners. Interpreted the results and processed the data, it was adopted a model of linear weighting to reflect the importance of each factor. The model has a hierarchical structure and can be applied with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method or Value Analysis. The goal of the paper it's to supply a selection reference model that can represent an orientation/pattern for a decision making on the suppliers/partners selection process

Functional disability of adults in Brazil: prevalence and associated factors

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence and factors associated with functional disability in adults in Brazil. METHODS We used information from the health supplement of the National Household Sample Survey in 2008. The dependent variable was the functional disability among adults of 18 to 65 years, measured by the difficulty of walking about 100 meters; independent variables were: health plan membership, region of residence, state of domicile, education level, household income, economic activity, self-perception of health, hospitalization, chronic diseases, age group, sex, and color. We calculated the gross odds ratios (OR), and their respective confidence intervals (95%), and adjusted them for variables of study by ordinal logistic regression, following hierarchical model. Sample weights were considered in all calculations. RESULTS We included 18,745 subjects, 74.0% of whom were women. More than a third of adults reported having functional disability. The disability was significantly higher among men (OR = 1.17; 95%CI 1.09;1.27), people from 35 to 49 years (OR = 1.30; 95%CI 1.17;1.45) and 50 to 65 years (OR = 1.38; 95%CI 1.24;1.54); economically inactive individuals (OR = 2.21; 95%CI 1.65;2.96); adults who reported heart disease (OR = 1.13; 95%CI 1.03;1.24), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.16; 95%CI 1.05;1.29), arterial systemic hypertension (OR = 1.10; 95%CI 1.02;1.18), and arthritis/rheumatism (OR = 1.24; 95%CI 1.15;1.34); and participants who were admitted in the last 12 months (OR = 2.35; 95%CI 1.73;3.2). CONCLUSIONS Functional disability is common among Brazilian adults. Hospitalization is the most strongly associated factor, followed by economic activity, and chronic diseases. Sex, age, education, and income are also associated. Results indicate specific targets for actions that address the main factors associated with functional disabilities and contribute to the projection of interventions for the improvement of the well-being and promotion of adults' quality of life.

Performance assessment of a wind energy conversion system using a hierarchical controller structure

This paper deals with a hierarchical structure composed by an event-based supervisor in a higher level and two distinct proportional integral (PI) controllers in a lower level. The controllers are applied to a variable speed wind energy conversion system with doubly-fed induction generator, namely, the fuzzy PI control and the fractional-order PI control. The event-based supervisor analyses the operation state of the wind energy conversion system among four possible operational states: park, start-up, generating or brake and sends the operation state to the controllers in the lower level. In start-up state, the controllers only act on electric torque while pitch angle is equal to zero. In generating state, the controllers must act on the pitch angle of the blades in order to maintain the electric power around the nominal value, thus ensuring that the safety conditions required for integration in the electric grid are met. Comparisons between fuzzy PI and fractional-order PI pitch controllers applied to a wind turbine benchmark model are given and simulation results by Matlab/Simulink are shown. From the results regarding the closed loop point of view, fuzzy PI controller allows a smoother response at the expense of larger number of variations of the pitch angle, implying frequent switches between operational states. On the other hand fractional-order PI controller allows an oscillatory response with less control effort, reducing switches between operational states. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

Da sobrevivência física à sobrevivência mental : aspectos do funcionamento psíquico em ex-combatentes da guerra colonial portuguesa

Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Nonlinear behavior of gelatin networks reveals a hierarchical structure

We investigate the strain hardening behavior of various gelatin networks-namely physical gelatin gel, chemically cross-linked gelatin gel, and a hybrid gel made of a combination of the former two-under large shear deformations using the pre-stress, strain ramp, and large amplitude oscillations shear protocols. Further, the internal structures of physical gelatin gels and chemically cross-linked gelatin gels were characterized by small angle neutron scattering (SANS) to enable their internal structures to be correlated with their nonlinear rheology. The Kratky plots of SANS data demonstrate the presence of small cross-linked aggregates within the chemically cross-linked network whereas, in the physical gelatin gels, a relatively homogeneous structure is observed. Through model fitting to the scattering data, we were able to obtain structural parameters, such as the correlation length (ξ), the cross-sectional polymer chain radius (Rc) and the fractal dimension (df) of the gel networks. The fractal dimension df obtained from the SANS data of the physical and chemically cross-linked gels is 1.31 and 1.53, respectively. These values are in excellent agreement with the ones obtained from a generalized nonlinear elastic theory that has been used to fit the stress-strain curves. The chemical cross-linking that generates coils and aggregates hinders the free stretching of the triple helix bundles in the physical gels.

A cumulative risk model of child physical maltreatment potential: findings from a community-based study

"Published online before print November 20, 2015"

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.