Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed

Spatially orthogonal chemical functionalization of a hierarchical pore network for catalytic cascade reactions

The chemical functionality within porous architectures dictates their performance as heterogeneous catalysts; however, synthetic routes to control the spatial distribution of individual functions within porous solids are limited. Here we report the fabrication of spatially orthogonal bifunctional porous catalysts, through the stepwise template removal and chemical functionalization of an interconnected silica framework. Selective removal of polystyrene nanosphere templates from a lyotropic liquid crystal-templated silica sol–gel matrix, followed by extraction of the liquid crystal template, affords a hierarchical macroporous–mesoporous architecture. Decoupling of the individual template extractions allows independent functionalization of macropore and mesopore networks on the basis of chemical and/or size specificity. Spatial compartmentalization of, and directed molecular transport between, chemical functionalities affords control over the reaction sequence in catalytic cascades; herein illustrated by the Pd/Pt-catalysed oxidation of cinnamyl alcohol to cinnamic acid. We anticipate that our methodology will prompt further design of multifunctional materials comprising spatially compartmentalized functions.

The development of a multi-function computer-assisted instruction system using a hierarchical database structure as the lesson compendium.

Computer-Based Learning systems of one sort or another have been in existence for almost 20 years, but they have yet to achieve real credibility within Commerce, Industry or Education. A variety of reasons could be postulated for this, typically: - cost - complexity - inefficiency - inflexibility - tedium Obviously different systems deserve different levels and types of criticism, but it still remains true that Computer-Based Learning (CBL) is falling significantly short of its potential. Experience of a small, but highly successful CBL system within a large, geographically distributed industry (the National Coal Board) prompted an investigation into currently available packages, the original intention being to purchase the most suitable software and run it on existing computer hardware, alongside existing software systems. It became apparent that none of the available CBL packages were suitable, and a decision was taken to develop an in-house Computer-Assisted Instruction system according to the following criteria: - cheap to run; - easy to author course material; - easy to use; - requires no computing knowledge to use (as either an author or student) ; - efficient in the use of computer resources; - has a comprehensive range of facilities at all levels. This thesis describes the initial investigation, resultant observations and the design, development and implementation of the SCHOOL system. One of the principal characteristics c£ SCHOOL is that it uses a hierarchical database structure for the storage of course material - thereby providing inherently a great deal of the power, flexibility and efficiency originally required. Trials using the SCHOOL system on IBM 303X series equipment are also detailed, along with proposed and current development work on what is essentially an operational CBL system within a large-scale Industrial environment.

Characterizing the hierarchical structures of bioactive sol-gel silicate glass and hybrid scaffolds for bone regeneration

Bone is the second most widely transplanted tissue after blood. Synthetic alternatives are needed that can reduce the need for transplants and regenerate bone by acting as active temporary templates for bone growth. Bioactive glasses are one of the most promising bone replacement/regeneration materials because they bond to existing bone, are degradable and stimulate new bone growth by the action of their dissolution products on cells. Sol-gel-derived bioactive glasses can be foamed to produce interconnected macropores suitable for tissue ingrowth, particularly cell migration and vascularization and cell penetration. The scaffolds fulfil many of the criteria of an ideal synthetic bone graft, but are not suitable for all bone defect sites because they are brittle. One strategy for improving toughness of the scaffolds without losing their other beneficial properties is to synthesize inorganic/organic hybrids. These hybrids have polymers introduced into the sol-gel process so that the organic and inorganic components interact at the molecular level, providing control over mechanical properties and degradation rates. However, a full understanding of how each feature or property of the glass and hybrid scaffolds affects cellular response is needed to optimize the materials and ensure long-term success and clinical products. This review focuses on the techniques that have been developed for characterizing the hierarchical structures of sol-gel glasses and hybrids, from atomicscale amorphous networks, through the covalent bonding between components in hybrids and nanoporosity, to quantifying open macroporous networks of the scaffolds. Methods for non-destructive in situ monitoring of degradation and bioactivity mechanisms of the materials are also included. © 2012 The Royal Society.

Non-linear hierarchical visualisation

This thesis applies a hierarchical latent trait model system to a large quantity of data. The motivation for it was lack of viable approaches to analyse High Throughput Screening datasets which maybe include thousands of data points with high dimensions. High Throughput Screening (HTS) is an important tool in the pharmaceutical industry for discovering leads which can be optimised and further developed into candidate drugs. Since the development of new robotic technologies, the ability to test the activities of compounds has considerably increased in recent years. Traditional methods, looking at tables and graphical plots for analysing relationships between measured activities and the structure of compounds, have not been feasible when facing a large HTS dataset. Instead, data visualisation provides a method for analysing such large datasets, especially with high dimensions. So far, a few visualisation techniques for drug design have been developed, but most of them just cope with several properties of compounds at one time. We believe that a latent variable model (LTM) with a non-linear mapping from the latent space to the data space is a preferred choice for visualising a complex high-dimensional data set. As a type of latent variable model, the latent trait model can deal with either continuous data or discrete data, which makes it particularly useful in this domain. In addition, with the aid of differential geometry, we can imagine the distribution of data from magnification factor and curvature plots. Rather than obtaining the useful information just from a single plot, a hierarchical LTM arranges a set of LTMs and their corresponding plots in a tree structure. We model the whole data set with a LTM at the top level, which is broken down into clusters at deeper levels of t.he hierarchy. In this manner, the refined visualisation plots can be displayed in deeper levels and sub-clusters may be found. Hierarchy of LTMs is trained using expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm to maximise its likelihood with respect to the data sample. Training proceeds interactively in a recursive fashion (top-down). The user subjectively identifies interesting regions on the visualisation plot that they would like to model in a greater detail. At each stage of hierarchical LTM construction, the EM algorithm alternates between the E- and M-step. Another problem that can occur when visualising a large data set is that there may be significant overlaps of data clusters. It is very difficult for the user to judge where centres of regions of interest should be put. We address this problem by employing the minimum message length technique, which can help the user to decide the optimal structure of the model. In this thesis we also demonstrate the applicability of the hierarchy of latent trait models in the field of document data mining.

Hierarchical case-based reasoning to support knitwear design

Knitwear design is a creative activity that is hard to automate using the computer. The production of the associated knitting pattern, however, is repetitive, time-consuming and error-prone, calling for automation. Our objectives are two-fold: to facilitate the design and to ease the burden of calculations and checks in pattern production. We conduct a feasibility study for applying case-based reasoning in knitwear design: we describe appropriate methods and show their application.

A method for automatically eliciting node weights in a hierarchical knowledge-based structure for reasoning with uncertainty

Hierarchical knowledge structures are frequently used within clinical decision support systems as part of the model for generating intelligent advice. The nodes in the hierarchy inevitably have varying influence on the decisionmaking processes, which needs to be reflected by parameters. If the model has been elicited from human experts, it is not feasible to ask them to estimate the parameters because there will be so many in even moderately-sized structures. This paper describes how the parameters could be obtained from data instead, using only a small number of cases. The original method [1] is applied to a particular web-based clinical decision support system called GRiST, which uses its hierarchical knowledge to quantify the risks associated with mental-health problems. The knowledge was elicited from multidisciplinary mental-health practitioners but the tree has several thousand nodes, all requiring an estimation of their relative influence on the assessment process. The method described in the paper shows how they can be obtained from about 200 cases instead. It greatly reduces the experts’ elicitation tasks and has the potential for being generalised to similar knowledge-engineering domains where relative weightings of node siblings are part of the parameter space.

Hierarchical classification of G-protein-coupled receptors with data-driven selection of attributes and classifiers

We address the important bioinformatics problem of predicting protein function from a protein's primary sequence. We consider the functional classification of G-Protein-Coupled Receptors (GPCRs), whose functions are specified in a class hierarchy. We tackle this task using a novel top-down hierarchical classification system where, for each node in the class hierarchy, the predictor attributes to be used in that node and the classifier to be applied to the selected attributes are chosen in a data-driven manner. Compared with a previous hierarchical classification system selecting classifiers only, our new system significantly reduced processing time without significantly sacrificing predictive accuracy.

An investigation into inductive parameter learning in complex hierarchical knowledge structures representing clinical expertise

This dissertation investigates the very important and current problem of modelling human expertise. This is an apparent issue in any computer system emulating human decision making. It is prominent in Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) due to the complexity of the induction process and the vast number of parameters in most cases. Other issues such as human error and missing or incomplete data present further challenges. In this thesis, the Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is used as an example of modelling clinical expertise and parameter elicitation. The tool is a mental health clinical record management system with a top layer of decision support capabilities. It is currently being deployed by several NHS mental health trusts across the UK. The aim of the research is to investigate the problem of parameter elicitation by inducing them from real clinical data rather than from the human experts who provided the decision model. The induced parameters provide an insight into both the data relationships and how experts make decisions themselves. The outcomes help further understand human decision making and, in particular, help GRiST provide more accurate emulations of risk judgements. Although the algorithms and methods presented in this dissertation are applied to GRiST, they can be adopted for other human knowledge engineering domains.

Clustering web documents using hierarchical representation with multi-granularity

Web document cluster analysis plays an important role in information retrieval by organizing large amounts of documents into a small number of meaningful clusters. Traditional web document clustering is based on the Vector Space Model (VSM), which takes into account only two-level (document and term) knowledge granularity but ignores the bridging paragraph granularity. However, this two-level granularity may lead to unsatisfactory clustering results with “false correlation”. In order to deal with the problem, a Hierarchical Representation Model with Multi-granularity (HRMM), which consists of five-layer representation of data and a twophase clustering process is proposed based on granular computing and article structure theory. To deal with the zero-valued similarity problemresulted from the sparse term-paragraphmatrix, an ontology based strategy and a tolerance-rough-set based strategy are introduced into HRMM. By using granular computing, structural knowledge hidden in documents can be more efficiently and effectively captured in HRMM and thus web document clusters with higher quality can be generated. Extensive experiments show that HRMM, HRMM with tolerancerough-set strategy, and HRMM with ontology all outperform VSM and a representative non VSM-based algorithm, WFP, significantly in terms of the F-Score.

Evaluation of options for energy recovery from municipal solid waste in India using the hierarchical analytical network process

In this paper a Hierarchical Analytical Network Process (HANP) model is demonstrated for evaluating alternative technologies for generating electricity from MSW in India. The technological alternatives and evaluation criteria for the HANP study are characterised by reviewing the literature and consulting experts in the field of waste management. Technologies reviewed in the context of India include landfill, anaerobic digestion, incineration, pelletisation and gasification. To investigate the sensitivity of the result, we examine variations in expert opinions and carry out an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis for comparison. We find that anaerobic digestion is the preferred technology for generating electricity from MSW in India. Gasification is indicated as the preferred technology in an AHP model due to the exclusion of criteria dependencies and in an HANP analysis when placing a high priority on net output and retention time. We conclude that HANP successfully provides a structured framework for recommending which technologies to pursue in India, and the adoption of such tools is critical at a time when key investments in infrastructure are being made. Therefore the presented methodology is thought to have a wider potential for investors, policy makers, researchers and plant developers in India and elsewhere. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hierarchical localization scheme for large scale underwater wireless sensor networks

In this paper, we study the localization problem in large-scale Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs). Unlike in the terrestrial positioning, the global positioning system (GPS) can not work efficiently underwater. The limited bandwidth, the severely impaired channel and the cost of underwater equipment all makes the localization problem very challenging. Most current localization schemes are not well suitable for deep underwater environment. We propose a hierarchical localization scheme to address the challenging problems. The new scheme mainly consists of four types of nodes, which are surface buoys, Detachable Elevator Transceivers (DETs), anchor nodes and ordinary nodes. Surface buoy is assumed to be equipped with GPS on the water surface. A DET is attached to a surface buoy and can rise and down to broadcast its position. The anchor nodes can compute their positions based on the position information from the DETs and the measurements of distance to the DETs. The hierarchical localization scheme is scalable, and can be used to make balances on the cost and localization accuracy. Initial simulation results show the advantages of our proposed scheme. © 2009 IEEE.

On the hierarchical classification of G protein-coupled receptors

MOTIVATION: G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) play an important role in many physiological systems by transducing an extracellular signal into an intracellular response. Over 50% of all marketed drugs are targeted towards a GPCR. There is considerable interest in developing an algorithm that could effectively predict the function of a GPCR from its primary sequence. Such an algorithm is useful not only in identifying novel GPCR sequences but in characterizing the interrelationships between known GPCRs. RESULTS: An alignment-free approach to GPCR classification has been developed using techniques drawn from data mining and proteochemometrics. A dataset of over 8000 sequences was constructed to train the algorithm. This represents one of the largest GPCR datasets currently available. A predictive algorithm was developed based upon the simplest reasonable numerical representation of the protein's physicochemical properties. A selective top-down approach was developed, which used a hierarchical classifier to assign sequences to subdivisions within the GPCR hierarchy. The predictive performance of the algorithm was assessed against several standard data mining classifiers and further validated against Support Vector Machine-based GPCR prediction servers. The selective top-down approach achieves significantly higher accuracy than standard data mining methods in almost all cases.

The classification of HLA supertypes by GRID/CPCA and hierarchical clustering methods

Biological experiments often produce enormous amount of data, which are usually analyzed by data clustering. Cluster analysis refers to statistical methods that are used to assign data with similar properties into several smaller, more meaningful groups. Two commonly used clustering techniques are introduced in the following section: principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clustering. PCA calculates the variance between variables and groups them into a few uncorrelated groups or principal components (PCs) that are orthogonal to each other. Hierarchical clustering is carried out by separating data into many clusters and merging similar clusters together. Here, we use an example of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) supertype classification to demonstrate the usage of the two methods. Two programs, Generating Optimal Linear Partial Least Square Estimations (GOLPE) and Sybyl, are used for PCA and hierarchical clustering, respectively. However, the reader should bear in mind that the methods have been incorporated into other software as well, such as SIMCA, statistiXL, and R.

Semisupervised learning of hierarchical latent trait models for data visualization

Recently, we have developed the hierarchical Generative Topographic Mapping (HGTM), an interactive method for visualization of large high-dimensional real-valued data sets. In this paper, we propose a more general visualization system by extending HGTM in three ways, which allows the user to visualize a wider range of data sets and better support the model development process. 1) We integrate HGTM with noise models from the exponential family of distributions. The basic building block is the Latent Trait Model (LTM). This enables us to visualize data of inherently discrete nature, e.g., collections of documents, in a hierarchical manner. 2) We give the user a choice of initializing the child plots of the current plot in either interactive, or automatic mode. In the interactive mode, the user selects "regions of interest," whereas in the automatic mode, an unsupervised minimum message length (MML)-inspired construction of a mixture of LTMs is employed. The unsupervised construction is particularly useful when high-level plots are covered with dense clusters of highly overlapping data projections, making it difficult to use the interactive mode. Such a situation often arises when visualizing large data sets. 3) We derive general formulas for magnification factors in latent trait models. Magnification factors are a useful tool to improve our understanding of the visualization plots, since they can highlight the boundaries between data clusters. We illustrate our approach on a toy example and evaluate it on three more complex real data sets. © 2005 IEEE.