Transition from pediatric to adult health care: expectations of adolescents with chronic disorders and their parents.

The aim of this study was to assess the expectations of adolescents with chronic disorders with regard to transition from pediatric to adult health care and to compare them with the expectations of their parents. A cross-sectional study was carried out including 283 adolescents with chronic disorders, aged 14-25 years (median age, 16.0 years), and not yet transferred to adult health care, and their 318 parents from two university children's hospitals. The majority of adolescents and parents (64%/70%) perceived the ages of 18-19 years and older as the best time to transfer to adult health care. Chronological age and feeling too old to see a pediatrician were reported as the most important decision factors for the transfer while the severity of the disease was not considered important. The most relevant barriers were feeling at ease with the pediatrician (45%/38%), anxiety (20%/24%), and lack of information about the adult specialist and health care (18%/27%). Of the 51% of adolescents with whom the pediatric specialist had spoken about the transfer, 53% of adolescents and 69% of parents preferred a joint transfer meeting with the pediatric and adult specialist, and 24% of these adolescents declared that their health professional had offered this option. In summary, the age preference for adolescents with chronic disorders and their parents to transfer to adult health care was higher than the upper age limits for admission to pediatric health care in many European countries. Anxiety and a lack of information of both adolescents and their parents were among the most important barriers for a smooth and timely transfer according to adolescents and parents.

Tal till K. J. Ståhlberg i mässhallen den 28.1.1945

Puhe

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

Ett sammansvetsat folk (tal, hållet i Salo den 16.10.1938)

Puhe

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.