Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Aldo Rossi, autobiografia scientifica: scrittura come progetto. Indagine critica tra scrittura e progetto di architettura

«In altri termini mi sfuggiva e ancora oggi mi sfugge gran parte del significato dell’evoluzione del tempo; come se il tempo fosse una materia che osservo dall’esterno. Questa mancanza di evoluzione è fonte di alcune mie sventure ma anche mi appartiene con gioia.» Aldo Rossi, Autobiografia scientifica. The temporal dimension underpinning the draft of Autobiografia scientifica by Aldo Rossi may be referred to what Lucien Lévy-Bruhl, the well-known French anthropologist, defines as “primitive mentality” and “prelogical” conscience : the book of life has lost its page numbers, even punctuation. For Lévy-Bruhl, but certainly for Rossi, life or its summing up becomes a continuous account of ellipses, gaps, repetitions that may be read from left to right or viceversa, from head to foot or viceversa without distinction. Rossi’s autobiographical writing seems to accept and support the confusion with which memories have been collected, recording them after the order memory gives them in the mental distillation or simply according to the chronological order in which they have happened. For Rossi, the confusion reflects the melting of memory elements into a composite image which is the result of a fusion. He is aware that the same sap pervades all memories he is going to put in order: each of them has got a common denominator. Differences have diminished, almost faded; the quick glance is prevalent over the distinction of each episode. Rossi’s writing is beyond the categories dependent on time: past and present, before and now. For Rossi, the only repetition – the repetition the text will make possible for an indefinite number of times – gives peculiarity to the event. As Gilles Deleuze knows, “things” may only last as “singleness”: more frequent the repetition is, more singular is the memory phenomenon that recurs, because only what is singular magnifies itself and happens endlessly forever. Rossi understands that “to raise the first time to nth forever”, repetition becomes glorification . It may be an autobiography that, celebrating the originality, enhances the memory event in the repetition; in fact it greatly differs from the biographical reproduction, in which each repetition is but a weaker echo, a duller copy, provided with a smaller an smaller power in comparison with the original. Paradoxically, for Deleuze the repetition asserts the originality and singularity of what is repeated. Rossi seems to share the thought expressed by Kierkegaard in the essay Repetition: «The hope is a graceful maiden slipping through your fingers; the memory of an elderly woman, indeed pretty, but never satisfactory if necessary; the repetition is a loved friend you are never tired of, as it is only the new to make you bored. The old never bores you and its presence makes you happy [...] life is but a repetition [...] here is the beauty of life» . Rossi knows well that repetition hints at the lasting stability of cosmic time. Kierkegaard goes on: «The world exists, and it exists as a repetition» . Rossi devotes himself, on purpose and in all conscience, to collect, to inventory and «to review life», his own life, according to a recovery not from the past but of the past: a search work, the «recherche du temps perdu», as Proust entitled his masterpiece on memory. If you want the past time to be not wasted, you must give it presence. «Memoria e specifico come caratteristiche per riconoscere se stesso e ciò che è estraneo mi sembravano le più chiare condizioni e spiegazioni della realtà. Non esiste uno specifico senza memoria, e una memoria che non provenga da un momento specifico; e solo questa unione permette la conoscenza della propria individualità e del contrario (self e non-self)» . Rossi wants to understand himself, his own character; it is really his own character that requires to be understood, to increase its own introspective ability and intelligence. «Può sembrare strano che Planck e Dante associno la loro ricerca scientifica e autobiografica con la morte; una morte che è in qualche modo continuazione di energia. In realtà, in ogni artista o tecnico, il principio della continuazione dell’energia si mescola con la ricerca della felicità e della morte» . The eschatological incipit of Rossi’s autobiography refers to Freud’s thought in the exact circularity of Dante’s framework and in as much exact circularity of the statement of the principle of the conservation of energy: in fact it was Freud to connect repetition to death. For Freud, the desire of repetition is an instinct rooted in biology. The primary aim of such an instinct would be to restore a previous condition, so that the repeated history represents a part of the past (even if concealed) and, relieving the removal, reduces anguish and tension. So, Freud ask himself, what is the most remote state to which the instinct, through the repetition, wants to go back? It is a pre-vital condition, inorganic of the pure entropy, a not-to-be condition in which doesn’t exist any tension; in other words, Death. Rossi, with the theme of death, introduces the theme of circularity which further on refers to the sense of continuity in transformation or, in the opposite way, the transformation in continuity. «[...] la descrizione e il rilievo delle forme antiche permettevano una continuità altrimenti irripetibile, permettevano anche una trasformazione, una volta che la vita fosse fermata in forme precise» . Rossi’s attitude seems to hint at the reflection on time and – in a broad sense – at the thought on life and things expressed by T.S. Eliot in Four Quartets: «Time present and time past / Are both perhaps present in time future, / And time future is contained in time past. / I all time is eternally present / All time is unredeemable. / What might have been is an abstraction / Remaining perpetual possibility / Only in a word of speculation. / What might have been and what has been / Point to one end, which is always present. [...]» . Aldo Rossi’s autobiographical story coincides with the description of “things” and the description of himself through the things in the exact parallel with craft or art. He seems to get all things made by man to coincide with the personal or artistic story, with the consequent immediate necessity of formulating a new interpretation: the flow of things has never met a total stop; all that exists nowadays is but a repetition or a variant of something existing some time ago and so on, without any interruption until the early dawnings of human life. Nevertheless, Rossi must operate specific subdivisions inside the continuous connection in time – of his time – even if limited by a present beginning and end of his own existence. This artist, as an “historian” of himself and his own life – as an auto-biographer – enjoys the privilege to be able to decide if and how to operate the cutting in a certain point rather than in another one, without being compelled to justify his choice. In this sense, his story is a matter very ductile and flexible: a good story-teller can choose any moment to start a certain sequence of events. Yet, Rossi is aware that, beyond the mere narration, there is the problem to identify in history - his own personal story – those flakings where a clean cut enables the separation of events of different nature. In order to do it, he has to make not only an inventory of his own “things”, but also to appeal to authority of the Divina Commedia started by Dante when he was 30. «A trent’anni si deve compiere o iniziare qualcosa di definitivo e fare i conti con la propria formazione» . For Rossi, the poet performs his authority not only in the text, but also in his will of setting out on a mystical journey and handing it down through an exact descriptive will. Rossi turns not only to the authority of poetry, but also evokes the authority of science with Max Plank and his Scientific Autobiography, published, in Italian translation, by Einaudi, 1956. Concerning Planck, Rossi resumes an element seemingly secondary in hit account where the German physicist «[...] risale alle scoperte della fisica moderna ritrovando l’impressione che gli fece l’enunciazione del principio di conservazione dell’energia; [...]» . It is again the act of describing that links Rossi to Planck, it is the description of a circularity, the one of conservation of energy, which endorses Rossi’s autobiographical speech looking for both happiness and death. Rossi seems to agree perfectly to the thought of Planck at the opening of his own autobiography: «The decision to devote myself to science was a direct consequence of a discovery which was never ceased to arouse my enthusiasm since my early youth: the laws of human thought coincide with the ones governing the sequences of the impressions we receive from the world surrounding us, so that the mere logic can enable us to penetrate into the latter one’s mechanism. It is essential that the outer world is something independent of man, something absolute. The search of the laws dealing with this absolute seems to me the highest scientific aim in life» . For Rossi the survey of his own life represents a way to change the events into experiences, to concentrate the emotion and group them in meaningful plots: «It seems, as one becomes older. / That the past has another pattern, and ceases to be a mere sequence [...]» Eliot wrote in Four Quartet, which are a meditation on time, old age and memory . And he goes on: «We had the experience but missed the meaning, / And approach to the meaning restores the experience / In a different form, beyond any meaning [...]» . Rossi restores in his autobiography – but not only in it – the most ancient sense of memory, aware that for at least 15 centuries the Latin word memoria was used to show the activity of bringing back images to mind: the psychology of memory, which starts with Aristotele (De Anima), used to consider such a faculty totally essential to mind. Keith Basso writes: «The thought materializes in the form of “images”» . Rossi knows well – as Aristotele said – that if you do not have a collection of mental images to remember – imagination – there is no thought at all. According to this psychological tradition, what today we conventionally call “memory” is but a way of imagining created by time. Rossi, entering consciously this stream of thought, passing through the Renaissance ars memoriae to reach us gives a great importance to the word and assumes it as a real place, much more than a recollection, even more than a production and an emotional elaboration of images.

L'eredità di Aldo Rossi nella Penisola Iberica. La costruzione della città e il progetto contemporaneo

Descrizione, tema e obiettivi della ricerca La ricerca si propone lo studio delle possibili influenze che la teoria di Aldo Rossi ha avuto sulla pratica progettuale nella Penisola Iberica, intende quindi affrontare i caratteri fondamentali della teoria che sta alla base di un metodo progettuale ed in particolar modo porre l'attenzione alle nuove costruzioni quando queste si confrontano con le città storiche. Ha come oggetto principale lo studio dei documenti, saggi e scritti riguardanti il tema della costruzione all'interno delle città storiche. Dallo studio di testi selezionati di Aldo Rossi sulla città si vuole concentrare l'attenzione sull'influenza che tale teoria ha avuto nei progetti della Penisola Iberica, studiare come è stata recepita e trasmessa successivamente, attraverso gli scritti di autori spagnoli e come ha visto un suo concretizzarsi poi nei progetti di nuove costruzioni all'interno delle città storiche. Si intende restringere il campo su un periodo ed un luogo precisi, Spagna e Portogallo a partire dagli anni Settanta, tramite la lettura di un importante evento che ha ufficializzato il contatto dell'architetto italiano con la Penisola Iberica, quale il Seminario di Santiago de Compostela tenutosi nel 1976. Al Seminario parteciparono numerosi architetti che si confrontarono su di un progetto per la città di Santiago e furono invitati personaggi di fama internazionale a tenere lezioni introduttive sul tema di dibattito in merito al progetto e alla città storica. Il Seminario di Santiago si colloca in un periodo storico cruciale per la Penisola Iberica, nel 1974 cade il regime salazarista in Portogallo e nel 1975 cade il regime franchista in Spagna ed è quindi di rilevante importanza capire il legame tra l'architettura e la nuova situazione politica. Dallo studio degli interventi, dei progetti che furono prodotti durante il Seminario, della relazione tra questo evento ed il periodo storico in cui esso va contestualizzato, si intende giungere alla individuazione delle tracce della reale presenza di tale eredità. Presupposti metodologici. Percorso e strumenti di ricerca La ricerca può quindi essere articolata in distinte fasi corrispondenti per lo più ai capitoli in cui si articola la tesi: una prima fase con carattere prevalentemente storica, di ricerca del materiale per poter definire il contesto in cui si sviluppano poi le vicende oggetto della tesi; una seconda fase di impronta teorica, ossia di ricerca bibliografica del materiale e delle testimonianze che provvedono alla definizione della reale presenza di effetti scaturiti dai contatti tra Rossi e la Penisola Iberica, per andare a costruire una eredità ; una terza fase che entra nel merito della composizione attraverso lo studio e la verifica delle prime due parti, tramite l'analisi grafica applicata ad uno specifico esempio architettonico selezionato; una quarta fase dove il punto di vista viene ribaltato e si indaga l'influenza dei luoghi visitati e dei contatti intrattenuti con alcuni personaggi della Penisola Iberica sull'architettura di Rossi, ricercandone i riferimenti. La ricerca è stata condotta attraverso lo studio di alcuni eventi selezionati nel corso degli anni che si sono mostrati significativi per l'indagine, per la risonanza che hanno avuto sulla storia dell'architettura della Penisola. A questo scopo si sono utilizzati principalmente tre strumenti: lo studio dei documenti, le pubblicazioni e le riviste prodotte in Spagna, gli scritti di Aldo Rossi in merito, e la testimonianza diretta attraverso interviste di personaggi chiave. La ricerca ha prodotto un testo suddiviso per capitoli che rispetta l'organizzazione in fasi di lavoro. A seguito di determinate condizioni storiche e politiche, studiate nella ricerca a supporto della tesi espressa, nella Penisola Iberica si è verificato il diffondersi della necessità e del desiderio di guardare e prendere a riferimento l'architettura europea e in particolar modo quella italiana. Il periodo sul quale viene focalizzata l'attenzione ha inizio negli anni Sessanta, gli ultimi prima della caduta delle dittature, scenario dei primi viaggi di Aldo Rossi nella Penisola Iberica. Questi primi contatti pongono le basi per intense e significative relazioni future. Attraverso l'approfondimento e la studio dei materiali relativi all'oggetto della tesi, si è cercato di mettere in luce il contesto culturale, l'attenzione e l'interesse per l'apertura di un dibattito intorno all'architettura, non solo a livello nazionale, ma europeo. Ciò ha evidenziato il desiderio di innescare un meccanismo di discussione e scambio di idee, facendo leva sull'importanza dello sviluppo e ricerca di una base teorica comune che rende coerente i lavori prodotti nel panorama architettonico iberico, seppur ottenendo risultati che si differenziano gli uni dagli altri. E' emerso un forte interesse per il discorso teorico sull'architettura, trasmissibile e comunicabile, che diventa punto di partenza per un metodo progettuale. Ciò ha reso palese una condivisione di intenti e l'assunzione della teoria di Aldo Rossi, acquisita, diffusa e discussa, attraverso la pubblicazione dei suoi saggi, la conoscenza diretta con l'architetto e la sua architettura, conferenze, seminari, come base teorica su cui fondare il proprio sapere architettonico ed il processo metodologico progettuale da applicare di volta in volta negli interventi concreti. Si è giunti così alla definizione di determinati eventi che hanno permesso di entrare nel profondo della questione e di sondare la relazione tra Rossi e la Penisola Iberica, il materiale fornito dallo studio di tali episodi, quali il I SIAC, la diffusione della rivista "2C. Construccion de la Ciudad", la Coleccion Arquitectura y Critica di Gustavo Gili, hanno poi dato impulso per il reperimento di una rete di ulteriori riferimenti. E' stato possibile quindi individuare un gruppo di architetti spagnoli, che si identificano come allievi del maestro Rossi, impegnato per altro in quegli anni nella formazione di una Scuola e di un insegnamento, che non viene recepito tanto nelle forme, piuttosto nei contenuti. I punti su cui si fondano le connessioni tra l'analisi urbana e il progetto architettonico si centrano attorno due temi di base che riprendono la teoria esposta da Rossi nel saggio L'architettura della città : - relazione tra l'area-studio e la città nella sua globalità, - relazione tra la tipologia edificatoria e gli aspetti morfologici. La ricerca presentata ha visto nelle sue successive fasi di approfondimento, come si è detto, lo sviluppo parallelo di più tematiche. Nell'affrontare ciascuna fase è stato necessario, di volta in volta, operare una verifica delle tappe percorse precedentemente, per mantenere costante il filo del discorso col lavoro svolto e ritrovare, durante lo svolgimento stesso della ricerca, gli elementi di connessione tra i diversi episodi analizzati. Tale operazione ha messo in luce talvolta nodi della ricerca rimasti in sospeso che richiedevano un ulteriore approfondimento o talvolta solo una rivisitazione per renderne possibile un più proficuo collegamento con la rete di informazioni accumulate. La ricerca ha percorso strade diverse che corrono parallele, per quanto riguarda il periodo preso in analisi: - i testi sulla storia dell'architettura spagnola e la situazione contestuale agli anni Settanta - il materiale riguardante il I SIAC - le interviste ai partecipanti al I SIAC - le traduzioni di Gustavo Gili nella Coleccion Arquitectura y Critica - la rivista "2C. Construccion de la Ciudad" Esse hanno portato alla luce una notevole quantità di tematiche, attraverso le quali, queste strade vengono ad intrecciarsi e a coincidere, verificando l'una la veridicità dell'altra e rafforzandone il valore delle affermazioni. Esposizione sintetica dei principali contenuti esposti dalla ricerca Andiamo ora a vedere brevemente i contenuti dei singoli capitoli. Nel primo capitolo Anni Settanta. Periodo di transizione per la Penisola Iberica si è cercato di dare un contesto storico agli eventi studiati successivamente, andando ad evidenziare gli elementi chiave che permettono di rintracciare la presenza della predisposizione ad un cambiamento culturale. La fase di passaggio da una condizione di chiusura rispetto alle contaminazioni provenienti dall'esterno, che caratterizza Spagna e Portogallo negli anni Sessanta, lascia il posto ad un graduale abbandono della situazione di isolamento venutasi a creare intorno al Paese a causa del regime dittatoriale, fino a giungere all'apertura e all'interesse nei confronti degli apporti culturali esterni. E' in questo contesto che si gettano le basi per la realizzazione del I Seminario Internazionale di Architettura Contemporanea a Santiago de Compostela, del 1976, diretto da Aldo Rossi e organizzato da César Portela e Salvador Tarragó, di cui tratta il capitolo secondo. Questo è uno degli eventi rintracciati nella storia delle relazioni tra Rossi e la Penisola Iberica, attraverso il quale è stato possibile constatare la presenza di uno scambio culturale e l'importazione in Spagna delle teorie di Aldo Rossi. Organizzato all'indomani della caduta del franchismo, ne conserva una reminescenza formale. Il capitolo è organizzato in tre parti, la prima si occupa della ricostruzione dei momenti salienti del Seminario Proyecto y ciudad historica, dagli interventi di architetti di fama internazionale, quali lo stesso Aldo Rossi, Carlo Aymonino, James Stirling, Oswald Mathias Ungers e molti altri, che si confrontano sul tema delle città storiche, alle giornate seminariali dedicate all’elaborazione di un progetto per cinque aree individuate all’interno di Santiago de Compostela e quindi dell’applicazione alla pratica progettuale dell’inscindibile base teorica esposta. Segue la seconda parte dello stesso capitolo riguardante La selezione di interviste ai partecipanti al Seminario. Esso contiene la raccolta dei colloqui avuti con alcuni dei personaggi che presero parte al Seminario e attraverso le loro parole si è cercato di approfondire la materia, in particolar modo andando ad evidenziare l’ambiente culturale in cui nacque l’idea del Seminario, il ruolo avuto nella diffusione della teoria di Aldo Rossi in Spagna e la ripercussione che ebbe nella pratica costruttiva. Le diverse interviste, seppur rivolte a persone che oggi vivono in contesti distanti e che in seguito a questa esperienza collettiva hanno intrapreso strade diverse, hanno fatto emergere aspetti comuni, tale unanimità ha dato ancor più importanza al valore di testimonianza offerta. L’elemento che risulta più evidente è il lascito teorico, di molto prevalente rispetto a quello progettuale che si è andato mescolando di volta in volta con la tradizione e l’esperienza dei cosiddetti allievi di Aldo Rossi. Negli stessi anni comincia a farsi strada l’importanza del confronto e del dibattito circa i temi architettonici e nel capitolo La fortuna critica della teoria di Aldo Rossi nella Penisola Iberica è stato affrontato proprio questo rinnovato interesse per la teoria che in quegli anni si stava diffondendo. Si è portato avanti lo studio delle pubblicazioni di Gustavo Gili nella Coleccion Arquitectura y Critica che, a partire dalla fine degli anni Sessanta, pubblica e traduce in lingua spagnola i più importanti saggi di architettura, tra i quali La arquitectura de la ciudad di Aldo Rossi, nel 1971, e Comlejidad y contradiccion en arquitectura di Robert Venturi nel 1972. Entrambi fondamentali per il modo di affrontare determinate tematiche di cui sempre più in quegli anni si stava interessando la cultura architettonica iberica, diventando così ¬ testi di riferimento anche nelle scuole. Le tracce dell’influenza di Rossi sulla Penisola Iberica si sono poi ricercate nella rivista “2C. Construccion de la Ciudad” individuata come strumento di espressione di una teoria condivisa. Con la nascita nel 1972 a Barcellona di questa rivista viene portato avanti l’impegno di promuovere la Tendenza, facendo riferimento all’opera e alle idee di Rossi ed altri architetti europei, mirando inoltre al recupero di un ruolo privilegiato dell’architettura catalana. A questo proposito sono emersi due fondamentali aspetti che hanno legittimato l’indagine e lo studio di questa fonte: - la diffusione della cultura architettonica, il controllo ideologico e di informazione operato dal lavoro compiuto dalla rivista; - la documentazione circa i criteri di scelta della redazione a proposito del materiale pubblicato. E’ infatti attraverso le pubblicazioni di “2C. Construccion de la Ciudad” che è stato possibile il ritrovamento delle notizie sulla mostra Arquitectura y razionalismo. Aldo Rossi + 21 arquitectos españoles, che accomuna in un’unica esposizione le opere del maestro e di ventuno giovani allievi che hanno recepito e condiviso la teoria espressa ne “L’architettura della città”. Tale mostra viene poi riproposta nella Sezione Internazionale di Architettura della XV Triennale di Milano, la quale dedica un Padiglione col titolo Barcelona, tres epocas tres propuestas. Dalla disamina dei progetti presentati è emerso un interessante caso di confronto tra le Viviendas para gitanos di César Portela e la Casa Bay di Borgo Ticino di Aldo Rossi, di cui si è occupato l’ultimo paragrafo di questo capitolo. Nel corso degli studi è poi emerso un interessante risvolto della ricerca che, capovolgendone l’oggetto stesso, ne ha approfondito gli aspetti cercando di scavare più in profondità nell’analisi della reciproca influenza tra la cultura iberica e Aldo Rossi, questa parte, sviscerata nell’ultimo capitolo, La Penisola Iberica nel “magazzino della memoria” di Aldo Rossi, ha preso il posto di quello che inizialmente doveva presentarsi come il risvolto progettuale della tesi. Era previsto infatti, al termine dello studio dell’influenza di Aldo Rossi sulla Penisola Iberica, un capitolo che concentrava l’attenzione sulla produzione progettuale. A seguito dell’emergere di un’influenza di carattere prettamente teorica, che ha sicuramente modificato la pratica dal punto di vista delle scelte architettoniche, senza però rendersi esplicita dal punto di vista formale, si è preferito, anche per la difficoltà di individuare un solo esempio rappresentativo di quanto espresso, sostituire quest’ultima parte con lo studio dell’altra faccia della medaglia, ossia l’importanza che a sua volta ha avuto la cultura iberica nella formazione della collezione dei riferimenti di Aldo Rossi. L’articolarsi della tesi in fasi distinte, strettamente connesse tra loro da un filo conduttore, ha reso necessari successivi aggiustamenti nel percorso intrapreso, dettati dall’emergere durante la ricerca di nuovi elementi di indagine. Si è pertanto resa esplicita la ricercata eredità di Aldo Rossi, configurandosi però prevalentemente come un’influenza teorica che ha preso le sfumature del contesto e dell’esperienza personale di chi se ne è fatto ricevente, diventandone così un continuatore attraverso il proprio percorso autonomo o collettivo intrapreso in seguito. Come suggerisce José Charters Monteiro, l’eredità di Rossi può essere letta attraverso tre aspetti su cui si basa la sua lezione: la biografia, la teoria dell’architettura, l’opera. In particolar modo per quanto riguarda la Penisola Iberica si può parlare dell’individuazione di un insegnamento riferito alla seconda categoria, i suoi libri di testo, le sue partecipazioni, le traduzioni. Questo è un lascito che rende possibile la continuazione di un dibattito in merito ai temi della teoria dell’architettura, della sue finalità e delle concrete applicazioni nelle opere, che ha permesso il verificarsi di una apertura mentale che mette in relazione l’architettura con altre discipline umanistiche e scientifiche, dalla politica, alla sociologia, comprendendo l’arte, le città la morfologia, la topografia, mediate e messe in relazione proprio attraverso l’architettura.

Multilevel Analysis in Household Survey: An Application to Health Condition Data

The aim of this thesis is to apply multilevel regression model in context of household surveys. Hierarchical structure in this type of data is characterized by many small groups. In last years comparative and multilevel analysis in the field of perceived health have grown in size. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a multilevel analysis with three level of hierarchy for Physical Component Summary outcome to: evaluate magnitude of within and between variance at each level (individual, household and municipality); explore which covariates affect on perceived physical health at each level; compare model-based and design-based approach in order to establish informativeness of sampling design; estimate a quantile regression for hierarchical data. The target population are the Italian residents aged 18 years and older. Our study shows a high degree of homogeneity within level 1 units belonging from the same group, with an intraclass correlation of 27% in a level-2 null model. Almost all variance is explained by level 1 covariates. In fact, in our model the explanatory variables having more impact on the outcome are disability, unable to work, age and chronic diseases (18 pathologies). An additional analysis are performed by using novel procedure of analysis :"Linear Quantile Mixed Model", named "Multilevel Linear Quantile Regression", estimate. This give us the possibility to describe more generally the conditional distribution of the response through the estimation of its quantiles, while accounting for the dependence among the observations. This has represented a great advantage of our models with respect to classic multilevel regression. The median regression with random effects reveals to be more efficient than the mean regression in representation of the outcome central tendency. A more detailed analysis of the conditional distribution of the response on other quantiles highlighted a differential effect of some covariate along the distribution.

Daniello Bartoli, Il Giappone, Edizione critica

La tesi di ricerca ha portato alla realizzazione di un’edizione critica del Giappone di Daniello Bartoli (1660): per la prima volta la «seconda parte» dell’Asia trova, in questo lavoro, una trascrizione integrale condotta con moderni criteri filologi. Quanto all’esegesi la ricerca ha visto la compilazione di tre «Schedari»: un «Indice dei nomi», che vede l’identificazione dei personaggi storici citati esplicitamente nell’opera, ne traccia un rapido profilo biografico e ne fornisce precisa e aggiornata bibliografia. Per quanto riguarda i missionari evocati dall’autore nel testo, questa sezione indica se (e dove) si tratta di personaggio o di fonte (registrando, nel caso, il luogo o i luoghi in cui Bartoli ricorre a tale testimonianza); un «Indice dei luoghi», che dà l’indicazione moderna del luogo citato e ne fornisce il riscontro con i repertori più aggiornati; un «Lessico» riservato ai termini giapponesi presenti nel testo che vengono spiegati e, là dove possibile, studiati nella loro storia, nella loro presenza nella coeva letteratura di viaggio e corredati di utili riferimenti bibliografici. Le pagine introduttive inquadrano l’opera di Bartoli sia nell’orizzonte biografico dell’autore sia nel milieu gesuitico barocco, fornendo puntuali coordinate storiche grazie alle quali recuperare il più ampio contesto delle missioni gesuitiche nell’Estremo Oriente tra Cinque e Seicento. Particolare attenzione è stata riservata al modo di intendere il compito dello storico da parte di Bartoli: una storiografia la sua che s’intreccia in modi affatto peculiari alle diverse forme stilistiche e dinamiche retoriche richieste dalle altre due grandi attività a cui egli dedicò impegno e passione: l’insegnamento e la predicazione.

Not in the Legends

In writing “Not in the Legends”, one of the images and concepts which constantly returned was that of pilgrimage. I began to write these poems while studying abroad in London, after having passed the previous semester in France and travelling around Europe. There was something in the repetition of sightseeing— walking six miles in Luxembourg to see the grave of General Patton, taking photographs of the apartment where Sylvia Plath ended her life, bowing before the bones of saints, searching through Père Lachaise for the grave of Théodore Gericault— which struck me as numinous and morbid. At the same time, I came to love living abroad and I grew discontent with both remaining and returning. I wanted the opportunity to live everywhere all the time and not have to choose between home and away. Returning from abroad, I turned my attention to the landscape of my native country. I found in the New England pilgrims a narrative of people who had left their home in search of growth and freedom. In these journeys I began to appreciate the significance of place and tried to understand what it meant to move from one place to another, how one chose a home, and why people searched for meaning in specific locations. The processes of moving from student to worker and from childhood to adulthood have weighed on me. I began to see these transitions towards maturity as travels to a different land. Memory and nostalgia are their own types of pilgrimage in their attempts to return to lost places, as is the reading of literature. These pilgrimages, real and metaphorical, form the thematic core of the collection. I read the work of many poets who came before me, returning to the places where the Canon was forged. Those poets have a large presence in the work I produced. I wondered how I, as a young poet, could earn my own place in the tradition and sought models in much the same way a painter studies the brushstrokes of a master. In the process, I have tried to uncover what it means to be a poet. Is it something like being a saint? Is it something like being a colonist? Or is to be the one who goes in search of saints and colonists? In trying to measure my own life and work based on the precedent, I have questioned what role era and generation have on the formation of identity. I focused my reading heavily on the early years of English poetry, trying to find the essence of the time when the language first achieved the transcendence of verse. In following the development of English poetry through Coleridge, John Berryman, and Allison Titus, I have explored the progression of those basic virtues in changing contexts. Those bearings, applied to my modern context, helped to shape the poetry I produced. Many of the poems in “Not in the Legends” are based on my own personal experience. In my recollections I have tried to interrogate nostalgia rather than falling into mere reminiscence. Rather than allowing myself poems of love and longing, I have tried to find the meaning of those emotions. A dominant conflict exists between adventure and comfort which mirrors the central engagement with the nature of being “here” or “there”. It is found in scenes of domesticity and wilderness as I attempt to understand my own simultaneous desire for both. For example, in “Canned Mangoes…” the intrusion of nature, even in a context as innocuous as a poem by Sir Walter Raleigh, unravels ordinary comforts of the domestic sphere. The character of “The Boy” from Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot proved such an interesting subject for me because he is one who can transcend the normal boundaries of time and place. The title suggests connections to both place and time. “Legends” features the dual meaning of both myths and the keys to maps. To propose something “Not in the Legends” is to find something which has no precedent in our histories and our geographies, something beyond our field of knowledge and wholly new. One possible interpretation I devised was that each new generation lives a novel existence, the future being the true locus of that which is beyond our understanding. The title comes from Keats’ “Hyperion, a Fragment”, and details the aftermath of the Titanomachy. The Titans, having fallen to the Olympians, are a representation of the passing of one generation for the next. Their dejection is expressed by Saturn, who laments: Not in my own sad breast, Which is its own great judge and searcher out, Can I find reason why ye should be thus: Not in the legends of the first of days… (129-132) The emotions of the conquered Titans are unique and without antecedent. They are experiencing feelings which surpass all others in history. In this, they are the equivalent of the poet who feels that his or her own sufferings are special. In contrast are Whitman’s lines from “Song of Myself” which serve as an epigraph to this collection. He contends for a sense of continuity across time, a realization that youth, age, pleasure, and suffering have always existed and will always exist. Whitman finds consolation in this unity, accepting that kinship with past generations is more important that his own individuality. These opposing views offer two methods of presenting the self in history. The instinct of poetry suggests election. The poet writes because he feels his experiences are special, or because he believes he can serve as a synecdoche for everyone. I have fought this instinct by trying to contextualize myself in history. These poems serve as an attempt at prosopography with my own narrative a piece of the whole. Because the earth abides forever, our new stories get printed over the locations of the old and every place becomes a palimpsest of lives and acts. In this collection I have tried to untangle some of those layers, especially my own, to better understand the sprawling legend of history.

Teacher resistance to school-based consultation with the school psychologist: An analysis according to school level and model of identification for special education services

Consultation is promoted throughout school psychology literature as a best practice in service delivery. This method has numerous benefits including being able to work with more students at one time, providing practitioners with preventative rather than strictly reactive strategies, and helping school professionals meet state and federal education mandates and initiatives. Despite the benefits of consultation, teachers are sometimes resistant to this process.This research studies variables hypothesized to lead to resistance (Gonzalez, Nelson, Gutkin, & Shwery, 2004) and attempts to distinguish differences between school level (elementary, middle and high school) with respect to the role played by these variables and to determine if the model used to identify students for special education services has an influence on resistance factors. Twenty-sixteachers in elementary and middle schools responded to a demographicquestionnaire and a survey developed by Gonzalez, et al. (2004). This survey measures eight variables related to resistance to consultation. No high school teachers responded to the request to participate. Results of analysis of variance indicated a significant difference in the teaching efficacy subscale with elementary teachers reporting more efficacy in teaching than middle school teachers. Results also indicate a significant difference in classroom managementefficacy with teachers who work in schools that identify students according to a Response to Intervention model reporting higher classroom management efficacy than teachers who work in schools that identify students according to a combined method of refer-test-place/RtI combination model. Implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.

The Returns to Migration: The Influence of Education and Migration Type

We show the impact of migration type on real wages over time. We create a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth over the period 1979-2002. We estimate the effects of primary, onward, and two types of return migration on real wages using a panel data model with individual, location, and time fixed effects. Panel data are well suited for the study of the returns to U.S. internal migration because the influence of migration on wages has been found to occur years after the event. We differentiate return migration into two types: return to a location with ties that form a geographical anchor (home) and return to a prior place of work. We find that real wage growth varies by migration type. Education attainment is a significant factor in real wage growth. Our results show that onward migration is an important channel by which the monetary rewards to a college education are manifested.

Great Lakes tributary phosphorus bioavailability

Information on phosphorus bioavailability can provide water quality managers with the support required to target point source and watershed loads contributing most significantly to water quality conditions. This study presents results from a limited sampling program focusing on the five largest sources of total phosphorus to the U.S. waters of the Great Lakes. The work provides validation of the utility of a bioavailability-based approach, confirming that the method is robust and repeatable. Chemical surrogates for bioavailability were shown to hold promise, however further research is needed to address site-to-site and seasonal variability before a universal relationship can be accepted. Recent changes in the relative contribution of P constituents to the total phosphorus analyte and differences in their bioavailability suggest that loading estimates of bioavailable P will need to address all three components (SRP, DOP and PP). A bioavailability approach, taking advantage of chemical surrogate methodologies is recommended as a means of guiding P management in the Great Lakes.

Technical communication in the global context : a heuristic approach to disciplinary identity and pedagogical practices

There is nothing new or original in stating that the global economy directly impacts the profession of technical communicators. The globalization of the workplace requires that technical communicators be prepared to work in increasingly linguistically and culturally diverse contexts. These new exigencies have natural repercussions on the research and educational practices of the field In this work, I draw on rhetoric, linguistics, and literacy theory to explore the definition, role and meaning of the global context for the disciplinary construction of professional and technical communication. By adopting an interdisciplinary and diachronic perspective, I assert that the global context is a heuristic means for sophisticating the disciplinary identity of the field and for reinforcing its place within the humanities. Consequently, I contend that the globalization of the workplace is a kairotic moment for underscoring the rhetorical dimension of professional and technical communication.

John Calvin's Impact on Church and Society, 1509-2009. Essays for the 500th birthday of Calvin

A tribute to the monumental influence of John Calvin in the 500 years since his birth. / What legacies, still enduring today, have John Calvin and Calvinism given to the church and society in Europe and North America? An international group of scholars tackles that question in this volume honoring Calvin's 500th birthday. These chapters together provide a comprehensive and accessible introduction to Calvin's life and thought, the history of the Reformation in Switzerland and worldwide, and his continuing relevance for ecclesial, social, and political questions today. / Contributors: Philip Benedict, James D. Bratt, Emidio Campi, Wulfert de Greef, Christopher Elwood, Eva-Maria Faber, Eric Fuchs, Ulrich H. J. Krtner, Christian Link, Christian Moser, Andrew Pettegree, Christoph Strohm, Mario Turchetti./ The essays in this book fit beautifully together to provide a solid, complete work that gives precise insight into the many different facets of Calvin and Calvinism. The high-level research found here clearly shows the great impact that Calvin has had on both church and society. It is a great pleasure to see Calvin here anew. Eberhard Busch / University of Gttingen / That John Calvin made a deep and lasting impact on many aspects of history is common knowledge but the character of the man and the nature of his influence are perhaps as controversial as any that can be named. It is thus a challenge to examine even a fraction of the many ways that Calvins life and thought have contributed to the shaping of later ages in both church and society. This volume offers essays on key points from an appropriately international group of authors appreciative but critical, drawing on a rich range of recent scholarship, presented in a pleasing and accessible form. It is a fine place for the new reader of Calvin to get a glimpse of his impact, while offering a fresh summary of some significant issues for more advanced students of the Reformer. Elsie Anne McKee / Princeton Theological Seminary / Hirzel and Sallmann have succeeded in gathering essays by an illustrious circle of experts both historians and theologians on important areas of Calvins thought and impact. Ranging from an insignificant city at the edge of the Swiss Confederation in the 1530s to the Accra Confession of 2004, these essays will serve to correct popular misconceptions. A fine introduction for a broader readership that wants more than mere armchair theology. Peter Opitz / University of Zurich

René Sand (1877-1953) and His Contribution to International Social Work, IASSW-President 1946 – 1953

The extraordinary significance of the life and work of René Sand lies in his central position as a mediator, promoter and coordinator of social work on an increasingly international level during the interwar-period and it can hardly be overestimated. To approach the achievements of Sand’s life and work you have to work archaeologically as he does not seem to have left any traces in the literature on social history. In Germany, even within the field of social work his name is hardly known. His biographical sketch and his importance for the development of the profession of social work have fallen into oblivion. The situation is a little different in the French-speaking countries where a biography has been published (compare Anciaux 1988a, b, c) which contains a detailed record of Sand’s writings. Altogether this lack of interest is regrettable because it doesn’t consider that René Sand is exemplary and in some parts fundamental to the emergence of professional social work in the 1920s in Belgium and Europe. Professional social work was established by a consequent international orientation and an emancipation from neighbouring fields such as social medicine and hygiene. Therefore it is a rewarding task to draw attention to this pioneer of social work and make the public appreciate his work. I want to emphasize explicitly that in this portrait Sand’s achievements concerning social work will be the main focus, even if this is an inevitable reduction of his accomplishments in the field of medicine and social medicine.

Implementing Swedish Models of Social Work in a Russian Context

The economic and social changes taking place in Russia in recent decades have implied a restructuring of the Russian society. Among other things, Russian leaders have expressed a need for the reorientation of social development. In the 1990’s, cooperation was initiated on a number of social work and social welfare projects with international support, a process further speeded up during President Jeltsin’s state visit to Sweden in 1997. Discussions between the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Russian authorities dealing with welfare issues started from the assumption that Russian professional social work was weak and needed to be strengthened. In the 1990's Sida was also given a stronger general mandate to work with other former Soviet countries in Eastern Europe, for example the Baltic States. The Russian-Swedish discussions resulted in projects aiming to raise social work competencies in public authorities, managements and among social workers in Russia. One of the areas chosen for these projects was Saint Petersburg, where several projects aiming to develop new models for social work were launched. The point of departure has been to transfer and adjust Swedish models of social work to the Russian context. The Stockholm University Department of Social Work became responsible for a number of such projects and besides using academic teachers also involved a number of practitioners, such as social workers in disablement services and reformatory staff who could meet and match Russian authorities and partners.

The long arm of time pressure at work: Cognitive failure and commuting near-accidents

This study tests whether cognitive failures mediate effects of work-related time pressure and time control on commuting accidents and near-accidents. Participants were 83 employees (56% female) who each commuted between their regular place of residence and place of work using vehicles. The Workplace Cognitive Failure Scale (WCFS) asked for the frequency of failure in memory function, failure in attention regulation, and failure in action execution. Time pressure and time control at work were assessed by the Instrument for Stress Oriented Task Analysis (ISTA). Commuting accidents in the last 12 months were reported by 10% of participants, and half of the sample reported commuting near-accidents in the last 4 weeks. Cognitive failure significantly mediated the influence of time pressure at work on near-accidents even when age, gender, neuroticism, conscientiousness, commuting duration, commuting distance, and time pressure during commuting were controlled for. Time control was negatively related to cognitive failure and neuroticism, but no association with commuting accidents or near-accidents was found. Time pressure at work is likely to increase cognitive load. Time pressure might, therefore, increase cognitive failures during work and also during commuting. Hence, time pressure at work can decrease commuting safety. The result suggests a reduction of time pressure at work should improve commuting safety.

Development of a Bayesian Joint Logistic Model to Better Study the Association between Haplotypes and Disease

In 2011, there will be an estimated 1,596,670 new cancer cases and 571,950 cancer-related deaths in the US. With the ever-increasing applications of cancer genetics in epidemiology, there is great potential to identify genetic risk factors that would help identify individuals with increased genetic susceptibility to cancer, which could be used to develop interventions or targeted therapies that could hopefully reduce cancer risk and mortality. In this dissertation, I propose to develop a new statistical method to evaluate the role of haplotypes in cancer susceptibility and development. This model will be flexible enough to handle not only haplotypes of any size, but also a variety of covariates. I will then apply this method to three cancer-related data sets (Hodgkin Disease, Glioma, and Lung Cancer). I hypothesize that there is substantial improvement in the estimation of association between haplotypes and disease, with the use of a Bayesian mathematical method to infer haplotypes that uses prior information from known genetics sources. Analysis based on haplotypes using information from publically available genetic sources generally show increased odds ratios and smaller p-values in both the Hodgkin, Glioma, and Lung data sets. For instance, the Bayesian Joint Logistic Model (BJLM) inferred haplotype TC had a substantially higher estimated effect size (OR=12.16, 95% CI = 2.47-90.1 vs. 9.24, 95% CI = 1.81-47.2) and more significant p-value (0.00044 vs. 0.008) for Hodgkin Disease compared to a traditional logistic regression approach. Also, the effect sizes of haplotypes modeled with recessive genetic effects were higher (and had more significant p-values) when analyzed with the BJLM. Full genetic models with haplotype information developed with the BJLM resulted in significantly higher discriminatory power and a significantly higher Net Reclassification Index compared to those developed with haplo.stats for lung cancer. Future analysis for this work could be to incorporate the 1000 Genomes project, which offers a larger selection of SNPs can be incorporated into the information from known genetic sources as well. Other future analysis include testing non-binary outcomes, like the levels of biomarkers that are present in lung cancer (NNK), and extending this analysis to full GWAS studies.