Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change

Floods are a major threat to human existence and historically have both caused the collapse of civilizations and forced the emergence of new cultures. The physical processes of flooding are complex. Increased population, climate variability, change in catchment and channel management, modified landuse and land cover, and natural change of floodplains and river channels all lead to changes in flood dynamics, and as a direct or indirect consequence, social welfare of humans. Section 5.16.1 explores the risks and benefits brought about by floods and reviews the responses of floods and floodplains to climate and landuse change. Section 5.08.2 reviews the existing modeling tools, and the top–down and bottom–up modeling frameworks that are used to assess impacts on future floods. Section 5.08.3 discusses changing flood risk and socioeconomic vulnerability based on current trends in emerging or developing countries and presents an alternative paradigm as a pathway to resilience. Section 5.08.4 concludes the chapter by stating a portfolio of integrated concepts, measures, and avant-garde thinking that would be required to sustainably manage future flood risk.

The ESA climate change initiative: satellite data records for essential climate variables

Observations of Earth from space have been made for over 40 years and have contributed to advances in many aspects of climate science. However, attempts to exploit this wealth of data are often hampered by a lack of homogeneity and continuity and by insufficient understanding of the products and their uncertainties. There is, therefore, a need to reassess and reprocess satellite datasets to maximize their usefulness for climate science. The European Space Agency has responded to this need by establishing the Climate Change Initiative (CCI). The CCI will create new climate data records for (currently) 13 essential climate variables (ECVs) and make these open and easily accessible to all. Each ECV project works closely with users to produce time series from the available satellite observations relevant to users' needs. A climate modeling users' group provides a climate system perspective and a forum to bring the data and modeling communities together. This paper presents the CCI program. It outlines its benefit and presents approaches and challenges for each ECV project, covering clouds, aerosols, ozone, greenhouse gases, sea surface temperature, ocean color, sea level, sea ice, land cover, fire, glaciers, soil moisture, and ice sheets. It also discusses how the CCI approach may contribute to defining and shaping future developments in Earth observation for climate science.

Rapid assessment of historic, current and future habitat quality for biodiversity around UK Natura 2000 sites

Changes in landscape composition and structure may impact the conservation and management of protected areas. Species that depend on specific habitats are at risk of extinction when these habitats are degraded or lost. Designing robust methods to evaluate landscape composition will assist decision- and policy-making in emerging landscapes. This paper describes a rapid assessment methodology aimed at evaluating landcover quality for birds, plants, butterflies and bees around seven UK Natura 2000 sites. An expert panel assigned quality values to standard Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) landcover classes for each taxonomic group. Quality was assessed based on historical (1950, 1990), current (2000) and future (2030) land-cover data, the last projected using three alternative scenarios: a growth applied strategy (GRAS), a business-as-might-beusual (BAMBU) scenario, and sustainable European development goal (SEDG) scenario. A quantitative quality index weighted the area of each land-cover parcel with a taxa-specific quality measure. Land parcels with high quality for all taxonomic groups were evaluated for temporal changes in area, size and adjacency. For all sites and taxonomic groups, the rate of deterioration of land-cover quality was greater between 1950 and 1990 than current rates or as modelled using the alternative future scenarios (2000– 2030). Model predictions indicated land-cover quality stabilized over time under the GRAS scenario, and was close to stable for the BAMBU scenario. The SEDG scenario suggested an ongoing loss of quality, though this was lower than the historical rate of c. 1% loss per decade. None of the future scenarios showed accelerated fragmentation, but rather increases in the area, adjacency and diversity of high quality land parcels in the landscape.

Urban microclimates and urban heat island in Chongqing, China

Chongqing is the largest directly-controlled municipality in China, which is now undergoing a rapid urbanization. The urbanization rate increased from 35.6% in 2000 to 48.3% in 2007, and it is estimated to reach at least 70% by 2020. The question remains open: What are the consequences of such rapid urbanization in Chongqing in terms of urban microclimate? Furthermore, Chongqing is located within the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region and the upper Yangtze River, where the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) project started in 1993 and was completed in 2010. As one of the biggest construction projects in the world with a rising water level of 175m and water storage capacity of about 39.3 billion m3, it would be interesting to investigate how such a gigantic project impacts the surrounding micro-environment, especially in Chongqing. Different research approaches are adopted in the study. Our literature review indicates present studies on the urban climate in Chongqing are mainly confined within the historical trend analysis of several weather stations operated by the Chongqing government, little is known about the spatial distribution of urban air temperature and how the local land cover influences the air temperature, especially when there are rivers running through the Chongqing urban area. To contribute to the present knowledge, a series of field measurement campaigns and numerical simulations were carried out. Two complementary types of field measurements are included: fixed weather stations and mobile transverse measurement. Numerical simulations using a house-developed program are able to predict the urban air temperature in Chongqing.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.

Interactive effect of floral abundance and semi-natural habitats on pollinators in field beans (Vicia faba)

Pollination services are economically important component of agricultural biodiversity which enhance the yield and quality of many crops. An understanding of the suitability of extant habitats for pollinating species is crucial for planning management actions to protect and manage these service providers. In a highly modified agricultural ecosystem, we tested the effect of different pollination treatments (open, autonomous self- and wind-pollination) on pod set, seed set, and seed weight in field beans (Vicia faba). We also investigated the effect of semi-natural habitats and flower abundance on pollinators of field beans. Pollinator sampling was undertaken in ten field bean fields along a gradient of habitat complexity; CORINE land cover classification was used to analyse the land use patterns between 500–3000 m around the sites. Total yield from open-pollination increased by 185% compared to autonomous self-pollination. There was positive interactive effect of local flower abundance and cover of semi-natural habitats on overall abundance of pollinators at 1500 and 2000 m, and abundance of bumblebees (Bombus spp.) at 1000–2000 m. In contrast, species richness of pollinators was only correlated with flower abundance and not with semi-natural habitats. We did not find a link between pod set from open-pollination and pollinator abundance, possibly due to variations in the growing conditions and pollinator communities between sites. We conclude that insect pollination is essential for optimal bean yields and therefore the maintenance of semi-natural habitats in agriculture-dominated landscapes should ensure stable and more efficient pollination services in field beans.

Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data

The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding is affected by its soil moisture prior to an extreme rainfall event. While soil moisture is routinely observed by satellite instruments, results from previous work on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into hydrologic models have been mixed. This may have been due in part to the low spatial resolution of the observations used. In this study, the remote sensing aspects of a project attempting to improve flow predictions from a distributed hydrologic model by assimilating soil moisture measurements are described. Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath data were used to measure soil moisture as, unlike low resolution microwave data, they have sufficient resolution to allow soil moisture variations due to local topography to be detected, which may help to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Surface soil moisture content (SSMC) was measured over the catchments of the Severn and Avon rivers in the South West UK. To reduce the influence of vegetation, measurements were made only over homogeneous pixels of improved grassland determined from a land cover map. Radar backscatter was corrected for terrain variations and normalized to a common incidence angle. SSMC was calculated using change detection. To search for evidence of a topographic signal, the mean SSMC from improved grassland pixels on low slopes near rivers was compared to that on higher slopes. When the mean SSMC on low slopes was 30–90%, the higher slopes were slightly drier than the low slopes. The effect was reversed for lower SSMC values. It was also more pronounced during a drying event. These findings contribute to the scant information in the literature on the use of high resolution SAR soil moisture measurement to improve hydrologic models.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 2: Large-area sensible and latent heat fluxes

A millimetre-wave scintillometer was paired with an infrared scintillometer, enabling estimation of large-area evapotranspiration across northern Swindon, a suburban area in the UK. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes can be obtained using this "two-wavelength" technique, as it is able to provide both temperature and humidity structure parameters, offering a major advantage over conventional single-wavelength scintillometry. The first paper of this two-part series presented the measurement theory and structure parameters. In this second paper, heat fluxes are obtained and analysed. These fluxes, estimated using two-wavelength scintillometry over an urban area, are the first of their kind. Source area modelling suggests the scintillometric fluxes are representative of 5–10 km2. For comparison, local-scale (0.05–0.5 km2) fluxes were measured by an eddy covariance station. Similar responses to seasonal changes are evident at the different scales but the energy partitioning varies between source areas. The response to moisture availability is explored using data from 2 consecutive years with contrasting rainfall patterns (2011–2012). This extensive data set offers insight into urban surface-atmosphere interactions and demonstrates the potential for two-wavelength scintillometry to deliver fluxes over mixed land cover, typically representative of an area 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than for eddy covariance measurements. Fluxes at this scale are extremely valuable for hydro-meteorological model evaluation and assessment of satellite data products

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.

Legacy effects of grassland management on soil carbon to depth

The importance of managing land to optimise carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation is widely recognised, with grasslands being identified as having the potential to sequester additional carbon. However, most soil carbon inventories only consider surface soils, and most large scale surveys group ecosystems into broad habitats without considering management intensity. Consequently, little is known about the quantity of deep soil carbon and its sensitivity to management. From a nationwide survey of grassland soils to 1 m depth, we show that carbon in grasslands soils is vulnerable to management and that these management effects can be detected to considerable depth down the soil profile, albeit at decreasing significance with depth. Carbon concentrations in soil decreased as management intensity increased, but greatest soil carbon stocks (accounting for bulk density differences), were at intermediate levels of management. Our study also highlights the considerable amounts of carbon in sub-surface soil below 30cm, which is missed by standard carbon inventories. We estimate grassland soil carbon in Great Britain to be 2097 Tg C to a depth of 1 m, with ~60% of this carbon being below 30cm. Total stocks of soil carbon (t ha-1) to 1 m depth were 10.7% greater at intermediate relative to intensive management, which equates to 10.1 t ha-1 in surface soils (0-30 cm), and 13.7 t ha-1 in soils from 30-100 cm depth. Our findings highlight the existence of substantial carbon stocks at depth in grassland soils that are sensitive to management. This is of high relevance globally, given the extent of land cover and large stocks of carbon held in temperate managed grasslands. Our findings have implications for the future management of grasslands for carbon storage and climate mitigation, and for global carbon models which do not currently account for changes in soil carbon to depth with management.

Influence of ground surface characteristics on the mean radiant temperature in urban areas

The effect of variations in land cover on mean radiant surface temperature (Tmrt) is explored through a simple scheme developed within the radiation model SOLWEIG. Outgoing longwave radiation is parameterised using surface temperature observations on a grass and an asphalt surface, whereas outgoing shortwave radiation is modelled through variations in albedo for the different surfaces. The influence of surface materials on Tmrt is small compared to the effects of shadowing. Nevertheless, altering ground surface materials could contribute to a reduction on Tmrt to reduce the radiant load during heat-wave episodes in locations where shadowing is not an option. Evaluation of the new scheme suggests that despite its simplicity it can simulate the outgoing fluxes well, especially during sunny conditions. However, it underestimates at night and in shadowed locations. One grass surface used to develop the parameterisation, with very different characteristics compared to an evaluation grass site, caused Tmrt to be underestimated. The implications of using high resolution (e.g. 15 minutes) temporal forcing data under partly cloudy conditions are demonstrated even for fairly proximal sites.

Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event

Drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, which may alter the composition of ecological communities. Using a functional community metric that describes abundance, life history traits and conservation status, based upon Grime’s CSR (Competitive-Stress tolerant-Ruderal)¬ scheme, we investigated how British butterfly communities changed during an extreme drought in 1995. Throughout Britain, the total abundance of these insects had a significant tendency to increase, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition, particularly in more northerly, wetter sites. Communities tended to shift away from specialist, vulnerable species, and towards generalist, widespread species and, in the year following, communities had yet to return to equilibrium. Importantly, heterogeneity in surrounding landscapes mediated community responses to the drought event. Contrary to expectation, however, community shifts were more extreme in areas of greater topographic diversity, whilst land-cover diversity buffered community changes and limited declines in vulnerable specialist butterflies.

A GIS Suitability Analysis of Wolf Habitat in Maine

The range of the Gray Wolf (Canis lupus), once covering most of North America, has been drastically reduced by an estimated 95% due to habitat loss and extermination by humans. The wolf was extirpated from Maine in the 1800’s. Wolf reintroductions have been suggested for Maine, but there is some debate about how much land is suitable for wolves. I developed a wolf habitat suitability analysis using ArcGIS and data from the Maine Office of GIS and the United States National Atlas. The model incorporates land cover, presence of major roads and railways, conservation land, industrial, non-industrial, and public woodlot ownership, distance from major points of population, deer population, and slope. The model results show areas of high and low wolf suitability in Maine. The model suggests that the best potential habitat for wolves in Maine is situated in the northwest of the state. Possible future reintroductions or natural colonization from other areas would have the highest likelihood of survival in these areas.

Habitat Suitability Analysis of the Critically Endangered Florida Panther

The purpose of this study was to conduct a habitat suitability analysis of the critically endangered Florida panther (Felis concolor coryi) in Florida. We gathered land cover, population and road data from the Florida Geographic Data Library and performed map algebra using ESRI’s ArcGIS to compile a suitable habitat map. We found that there is 20381.7 km² of highly suitable habitat and 557124.4 km² of less desirable but usable habitat for the Florida panther. The highest concentration of highly suitable habitat is in Big Cypress National Park, with smaller patches in Tates Hell State Forest and along the southeast portion of the Panhandle. Due to extensive fragmentation, however, and without establishment of habitat linkages to the existing southern population, there is little chance of survival of additional panther populations in much of northern Florida.

Estimated Number and Location of Future Moose-Vehicle Collisions (MVC) in Maine

Moose (Alces alces) are a keystone herbivore in Maine. Because of the large number of rural roads in Maine, there is a high rate of moose-vehicle collisions (MVCs), which is increasing. On-road encounters with animals resulted in 231 fatalities in the United States in 1999. Because of the fatality of MVCs, it is important to know where they are most likely to occur. I used GIS analysis to estimate where future MVCs would occur, factoring in the variables of land cover suitability for moose, distance from water bodies, locations of past MVCs, and speed limits on the roads. I ran four different analyses, each one weighting the variables equally. I also ran a regression to determine if increasing road speed was associated with the increase in the number of MVCs per length of road. There was not a strong positive relationship between the number of MVCs per length of road and the speed limit, but it was interesting to note that there were more MVCs per length of road on 35mph and 40mph roads than on 45, 50, 55 or 65mph roads. Future research on MVCs would benefit from the inclusion of include moose population density and road traffic data.