Deposition reactors for solar grade silicon: a comparative thermal analysis of a Siemens reactor and a fluidized bed reactor

Polysilicon production costs contribute approximately to 25-33% of the overall cost of the solar panels and a similar fraction of the total energy invested in their fabrication. Understanding the energy losses and the behaviour of process temperature is an essential requirement as one moves forward to design and build large scale polysilicon manufacturing plants. In this paper we present thermal models for two processes for poly production, viz., the Siemens process using trichlorosilane (TCS) as precursor and the fluid bed process using silane (monosilane, MS).We validate the models with some experimental measurements on prototype laboratory reactors relating the temperature profiles to product quality. A model sensitivity analysis is also performed, and the efects of some key parameters such as reactor wall emissivity, gas distributor temperature, etc., on temperature distribution and product quality are examined. The information presented in this paper is useful for further understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of both deposition technologies, and will help in optimal temperature profiling of these systems aiming at lowering production costs without compromising the solar cell quality.

Accurate Analysis of Subharmonic Oscillations of V^2 and V^2Ic Controls Applied to Buck Converter

V2Ic control provides very fast dynamic performance to the Buck converter both under load steps and under voltage reference steps. However, the design of this control is complex since it is prone to subharmonic oscillations and several parameters affect the stability of the system. This paper derives and validates a very accurate modeling and stability analysis of a closed-loop V2Ic control using the Floquet theory. This allows the derivation of sensitivity analysis to design a robust converter. The proposed methodology is validated on a 5-MHz Buck converter. The work is also extended to V2 control using the same methodology, showing high accuracy and robustness. The paper also demonstrates, on the V2 control, that even a low bandwidth-linear controller can affect the stability of a ripple-based control.

Comparação entre prótese plástica e metálica na paliação endoscópica da obstrução maligna da via biliar: revisão sistemática e metanálise baseadas em estudos randomizados

INTRODUÇÃO: A prótese biliar endoscópica é aceita em todo o mundo como a primeira escolha de tratamento paliativo na obstrução biliar maligna. Atualmente ainda persistem dois tipos de materiais utilizados em sua confecção: plástico e metal. Consequentemente, muitas dúvidas surgem quanto a qual deles é o mais benéfico para o paciente. Esta revisão reúne as informações disponíveis da mais alta qualidade sobre estes dois tipos de prótese, fornecendo informações em relação à disfunção, complicação, taxas de reintervenção, custos, sobrevida e tempo de permeabilidade; e pretende ajudar a lidar com a prática clínica nos dias de hoje. OBJETIVO: Analisar, através de metanálise, os benefícios de dois tipos de próteses na obstrução biliar maligna inoperável. MÉTODOS: Uma revisão sistemática de ensaios clínicos randomizados (RCT) foi conduzida, com a última atualização em março de 2015, utilizando EMBASE, CINAHL (EBSCO), Medline, Lilacs / Centro (BVS), Scopus, o CAPES (Brasil), e literatura cinzenta. As informações dos estudos selecionados foram extraídas tendo em vista seis desfechos: primariamente disfunção, taxas de reintervenção e complicações; e, secundariamente, custos, sobrevivência e tempo de permeabilidade. Os dados sobre as características dos participantes do RCT, critérios de inclusão e exclusão e tipos de próteses também foram extraídos. Os vieses foram avaliados principalmente através da escala de Jadad. Esta metanálise foi registrada no banco de dados PROSPERO pelo número CRD42014015078. A análise do risco absoluto dos resultados foi realizada utilizando o software RevMan 5, calculando as diferenças de risco (RD) de variáveis dicotômicas e média das diferenças (MD) de variáveis contínuas. Os dados sobre a RD e MD para cada desfecho primário foram calculados utilizando o teste de Mantel-Haenszel e a inconsistência foi avaliada com o teste Qui-quadrado (Chi2) e o método de Higgins (I2). A análise de sensibilidade foi realizada com a retirada de estudos discrepantes e a utilização do efeito aleatório. O teste t de Student foi utilizado para a comparação das médias aritméticas ponderadas, em relação aos desfechos secundários. RESULTADOS: Inicialmente foram identificados 3660 estudos; 3539 foram excluídos por título ou resumo, enquanto 121 estudos foram totalmente avaliados e foram excluídos, principalmente por não comparar próteses metálicas (SEMS) e próteses plásticas (PS), levando a treze RCT selecionados e 1133 indivíduos metanálise. A média de idade foi de 69,5 anos, e o câncer mais comum foi de via biliar (proximal) e pancreático (distal). O diâmetro de SEMS mais utilizado foi de 10 mm (30 Fr) e o diâmetro de PS mais utilizado foi de 10 Fr. Na metanálise, SEMS tiveram menor disfunção global em comparação com PS (21,6% versus 46,8% p < 0,00001) e menos reintervenções (21,6% versus 56,6% p < 0,00001), sem diferença nas complicações (13,7% versus 15,9% p = 0,16). Na análise secundária, a taxa média de sobrevida foi maior no grupo SEMS (182 contra 150 dias - p < 0,0001), com um período maior de permeabilidade (250 contra 124 dias - p < 0,0001) e um custo semelhante por paciente, embora menor no grupo SEMS (4.193,98 contra 4.728,65 Euros - p < 0,0985). CONCLUSÃO: SEMS estão associados com menor disfunção, menores taxas de reintervenção, melhor sobrevida e maior tempo de permeabilidade. Complicações e custos não apresentaram diferença

Avaliação do desempenho ambiental de alternativas de reaproveitamento de vinhaça decorrente da produção de etanol.

A obtenção de etanol a partir de rotas alcoolquímicas consagradas gera resíduos com potencial de aproveitamento, tanto em outros setores produtivos como no ciclo produtivo do próprio combustível. Este é o caso de torta de filtro e vinhaça. A vinhaça em particular costuma ser devolvida ao campo com o intuito de ajustar teores nutricionais do solo no cultivo da cana. No entanto, estudos ambientais destacam que esta alternativa traz efeitos negativos sobre os meios receptores (água e solo), condição que abre a perspectiva para exploração de usos alternativos dessas substâncias. Este estudo se propôs a contribuir para o tema ao avaliar de forma sistêmica o desempenho ambiental de duas alternativas de reaproveitamento de vinhaça: (i) reuso no campo em processos de fertirrigação, alternativa consolidada no Brasil, e (ii) reuso da fração líquida da vinhaça em etapas diversas do processo industrial de obtenção de etanol. Em qualquer das situações fez-se uso da técnica de Avaliação de Ciclo de Vida - ACV para proceder tal verificação. A análise ambiental da prática de reuso de vinhaça e torta para fertirrigação foi conduzida a partir da comparação de cenários que consideraram a forma de suprimento de nutrientes para a cana e o método de colheita. A avaliação de impactos ocorreu em dois níveis: quanto ao consumo de recursos, a partir de Primary Energy Demand (PED); e em termos de emissões para o ambiente por meio da elaboração do Perfil Ambiental. Uma Análise de Sensibilidade foi também realizada para verificar o efeito de oscilações dos teores de Nitrogênio (N), Fósforo (P) e Potássio (K) na composição da vinhaça sobre os resultados obtidos, caso da primeira alternativa. Concluiu-se para esse caso que a substituição parcial de fertilizantes químicos por vinhaça traz aumento da Demanda de Energia Primária global para ambos os métodos de colheita. Em termos de Perfil Ambiental, a comparação entre cenários das mesmas práticas de manejo mostrou que a troca de adubos por vinhaça e torta é positiva para o desempenho ambiental do etanol por reduzir impactos quanto a Mudanças Climáticas (CC), Acidificação Terrestre (TA) e Toxicidade Humana (HT). Por outro lado, o tratamento de vinhaça para reposição de água na etapa industrial resultou em aumento global das contribuições para as categorias acima mencionadas além de incrementos para Eutrofização de água doce (FEut) e Ecotoxicidade de água doce (FEC), a despeito de ser constatada a redução de 45% quanto a Depleção de água (WD). Os aumentos no impacto se deveram principalmente aos efeitos negativos causados durante a produção do CaO usado no processo de tratamento da vinhaça. No entanto, a substituição deste insumo por NaOH só representou melhora em termos de CC. Pode-se concluir que a reutilização de vinhaça e de torta de filtro como complemento nutricional para o cultivo de cana-de-açúcar resultou em uma alternativa mais adequada de reaproveitamento do que o se este fluído fosse reutilizado para suprir parte da demanda hídrica de processo, mesmo quando o consumo de água na etapa industrial tenha inexoravelmente se reduzido a partir da implantação dessa medida.

Profitability analysis of a femtosecond laser system for cataract surgery using a fuzzy logic approach

AIM: To define the financial and management conditions required to introduce a femtosecond laser system for cataract surgery in a clinic using a fuzzy logic approach. METHODS: In the simulation performed in the current study, the costs associated to the acquisition and use of a commercially available femtosecond laser platform for cataract surgery (VICTUS, TECHNOLAS Perfect Vision GmbH, Bausch & Lomb, Munich, Germany) during a period of 5y were considered. A sensitivity analysis was performed considering such costs and the countable amortization of the system during this 5y period. Furthermore, a fuzzy logic analysis was used to obtain an estimation of the money income associated to each femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery (G). RESULTS: According to the sensitivity analysis, the femtosecond laser system under evaluation can be profitable if 1400 cataract surgeries are performed per year and if each surgery can be invoiced more than $500. In contrast, the fuzzy logic analysis confirmed that the patient had to pay more per surgery, between $661.8 and $667.4 per surgery, without considering the cost of the intraocular lens (IOL). CONCLUSION: A profitability of femtosecond laser systems for cataract surgery can be obtained after a detailed financial analysis, especially in those centers with large volumes of patients. The cost of the surgery for patients should be adapted to the real flow of patients with the ability of paying a reasonable range of cost.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Adaptive Monitoring Strategies for Depression Treatment

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Cambial meristem dormancy in trees involves extensive remodelling of the transcriptome

The establishment of the dormant state in meristems involves considerable physiological and metabolic alterations necessary for surviving unfavourable growth conditions. However, a global molecular analysis of dormancy in meristems has been hampered by the difficulty in isolating meristem cells. We used cryosectioning to isolate purified cambial meristem cells from the woody plant Populus tremula during active growth and dormancy. These samples were used to generate meristem-specific cDNA libraries and for cDNA microarray experiments to define the global transcriptional changes underlying cambial dormancy. The results indicate a significant reduction in the complexity of the cambial transcriptome in the dormant state. Although cell division is terminated in the dormant cambium, the cell cycle machinery appears to be maintained in a skeletal state as suggested by the continued presence of transcripts for several cell cycle regulators. The downregulation of PttPIN1 and PttPIN2 transcripts explains the reduced basipetal polar auxin transport during dormancy. The induction of a member of the SINA family of ubiquitin ligases implicated in auxin signalling indicates a potential mechanism for modulation of auxin sensitivity during cambial dormancy. The metabolic alterations during dormancy are mirrored in the induction of genes involved in starch breakdown and the glyoxysomal cycle. Interestingly, the induction of RGA1 like gene suggests modification of gibberellin signalling in cambial dormancy. The induction of genes such as poplar orthologues of FIE and HAP2 indicates a potential role for these global regulators of transcription in orchestrating extensive changes in gene expression during dormancy.

Validation of multicriteria analysis models

Validation procedures play an important role in establishing the credibility of models, improving their relevance and acceptability. This article reviews the testing of models relevant to environmental and natural resource management with particular emphasis on models used in multicriteria analysis (MCA). Validation efforts for a model used in a MCA catchment management study in North Queensland, Australia, are presented. Determination of face validity is found to be a useful approach in evaluating this model, and sensitivity analysis is useful in checking the stability of the model. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining inventory service support levels in multi-national companies

Multi-national manufacturing companies are often faced with very difficult decisions regarding where and how to cost effectively manufacture products in a global setting. Clearly, they must utilize efficient and responsive manufacturing strategies to reach low cost solutions, but they must also consider the impact of manufacturing and transportation solutions upon their ability to support sales. One important sales consideration is determining how much work in process, in-transit stock, and finished goods to have on hand to support sales at a desired service level. This paper addresses this important consideration through a comprehensive scenario-based simulation approach, including sensitivity analysis on key study parameters. Results indicate that the inventory needs vary considerably for different manufacturing and delivery methods in ways that may not be obvious when using common evaluative tools.

Productivity analysis and measurement

The state of the art in productivity measurement and analysis shows a gap between simple methods having little relevance in practice and sophisticated mathematical theory which is unwieldy for strategic and tactical planning purposes, -particularly at company level. An extension is made in this thesis to the method of productivity measurement and analysis based on the concept of added value, appropriate to those companies in which the materials, bought-in parts and services change substantially and a number of plants and inter-related units are involved in providing components for final assembly. Reviews and comparisons of productivity measurement dealing with alternative indices and their problems have been made and appropriate solutions put forward to productivity analysis in general and the added value method in particular. Based on this concept and method, three kinds of computerised models two of them deterministic, called sensitivity analysis and deterministic appraisal, and the third one, stochastic, called risk simulation, have been developed to cope with the planning of productivity and productivity growth with reference to the changes in their component variables, ranging from a single value 'to• a class interval of values of a productivity distribution. The models are designed to be flexible and can be adjusted according to the available computer capacity expected accuracy and 'presentation of the output. The stochastic model is based on the assumption of statistical independence between individual variables and the existence of normality in their probability distributions. The component variables have been forecasted using polynomials of degree four. This model is tested by comparisons of its behaviour with that of mathematical model using real historical data from British Leyland, and the results were satisfactory within acceptable levels of accuracy. Modifications to the model and its statistical treatment have been made as required. The results of applying these measurements and planning models to the British motor vehicle manufacturing companies are presented and discussed.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Efficacy and safety of second-generation antipsychotic long-acting injections (SGA LAIs) in maintenance treatment of bipolar disorder:protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION: Bipolar disorder requires long-term treatment but non-adherence is a common problem. Antipsychotic long-acting injections (LAIs) have been suggested to improve adherence but none are licensed in the UK for bipolar. However, the use of second-generation antipsychotics (SGA) LAIs in bipolar is not uncommon albeit there is a lack of systematic review in this area. This study aims to systematically review safety and efficacy of SGA LAIs in the maintenance treatment of bipolar disorder. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The protocol is based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and will include only randomised controlled trials comparing SGA LAIs in bipolar. PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library (CENTRAL), PsychINFO, LiLACS, http://www.clinicaltrials.gov will be searched, with no language restriction, from 2000 to January 2016 as first SGA LAIs came to the market after 2000. Manufacturers of SGA LAIs will also be contacted. Primary efficacy outcome is relapse rate or delayed time to relapse or reduction in hospitalisation and primary safety outcomes are drop-out rates, all-cause discontinuation and discontinuation due to adverse events. Qualitative reporting of evidence will be based on 21 items listed on standards for reporting qualitative research (SRQR) focusing on study quality (assessed using the Jadad score, allocation concealment and data analysis), risk of bias and effect size. Publication bias will be assessed using funnel plots. If sufficient data are available meta-analysis will be performed with primary effect size as relative risk presented with 95% CI. Sensitivity analysis, conditional on number of studies and sample size, will be carried out on manic versus depressive symptoms and monotherapy versus adjunctive therapy.

Assessing economically viable carbon reductions for the production of ammonia from biomass gasification

Greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production are set to increase before stabilising due to the increasing demand to secure sustainable food supplies for a growing global population. However, avoiding the impacts of climate change requires all sectors to decarbonise by a very high level within several decades. Economically viable carbon reductions of substituting natural gas reforming with biomass gasification for ammonia production are assessed using techno-economic and life cycle assessment. Greenhouse gas savings of 65% are achieved for the biomass gasification system and the internal rate of return is 9.8% at base-line biomass feedstock and ammonia prices. Uncertainties in the assumptions have been tested by performing sensitivity analysis, which show, for example with a ±50% change in feedstock price, the rate of return ranges between -0.1% and 18%. It would achieve its target rate of return of 20% at a carbon price of £32/t CO, making it cost competitive compared to using biomass for heat or electricity. However, the ability to remain competitive to investors will depend on the volatility of ammonia prices, whereby a significant decrease would require high carbon prices to compensate. Moreover, since no such project has been constructed previously, there is high technology risk associated with capital investment. With limited incentives for industrial intensive energy users to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, a sensible policy mechanism could target the support of commercial demonstration plants to help ensure this risk barrier is resolved. © 2013 The Authors.

Recent Results on Stability Analysis of an Optimal Assembly Line Balance

Two assembly line balancing problems are addressed. The first problem (called SALBP-1) is to minimize number of linearly ordered stations for processing n partially ordered operations V = {1, 2, ..., n} within the fixed cycle time c. The second problem (called SALBP-2) is to minimize cycle time for processing partially ordered operations V on the fixed set of m linearly ordered stations. The processing time ti of each operation i ∈V is known before solving problems SALBP-1 and SALBP-2. However, during the life cycle of the assembly line the values ti are definitely fixed only for the subset of automated operations V\V . Another subset V ⊆ V includes manual operations, for which it is impossible to fix exact processing times during the whole life cycle of the assembly line. If j ∈V , then operation times tj can differ for different cycles of the production process. For the optimal line balance b of the assembly line with operation times t1, t2, ..., tn, we investigate stability of its optimality with respect to possible variations of the processing times tj of the manual operations j ∈ V .