The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

A case study of the direct radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Eastern Amazon

Numerical experiments with the Brazilian additions to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were performed with two nested grids (50 and 10 km horizontal resolution, respectively) with and without the effect of biomass burning for 8 different situations for 96 h integrations. Only the direct radiative effect of aerosols is considered. The results were analyzed in large areas encompassing the BR163 road (one of the main areas of deforestation in the Amazon). mainly where most of the burning takes place. The precipitation change due to the direct radiative impact of biomass burning is generally negative (i.e., there is a decrease of precipitation). However, there are a few cases with a positive impact. Two opposite forcing mechanisms were explored: (a) the thermodynamic forcing that is generally negative in the sense that the aerosol tends to stabilize the lower atmosphere and (b) the dynamic impact associated with the low level horizontal pressure gradients produced by the aerosol plumes. In order to understand the non-linear relationship between the two effects, experiments were performed with 4-fold emissions. In these cases, the dynamic effect overcomes the stabilization produced by the radiative forcing and precipitation increase is observed in comparison with the control experiment. This study suggests that. in general, the biomass burning radiative forcing decreases the precipitation. However, very large concentrations of aerosols may lead to an increase of precipitation due to the dynamical forcing associated with the horizontal pressure gradients. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Fast or slow melting of the Marinoan snowball Earth? The cap dolostone record

The end of the Neoproterozoic era is punctuated by two global glacial events marked by the presence of glacial deposits overlaid by cap carbonates. Duration of glacial intervals is now consistently constrained to 3-12 million years but the duration of the post-glacial transition is more controversial due to the uncertainty in cap dolostone sedimentation rates. Indeed, the presence of several stratabound magnetic reversals in Brazilian cap dolostones recently questioned the short sedimentation duration (a few thousand years at most) that was initially suggested for these rocks. Here, we present new detailed magnetostratigraphic data of the Mirassol d`Oeste cap dolostones (Mato Grosso, Brazil) and ""bomb-spike"" calibrated AMS (14)C data of microbial mats from the Lagoa Vermelha (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). We also compile sedimentary, isotopic and microbiological data from post-Marinoan outcrops and/or recent depositional analogues in order to discuss the deposition rate of Marinoan cap dolostones and to infer an estimation of the deglaciation duration in the snowball Earth aftermath. Taken together, the various data point to a sedimentation duration in the range of a few 10(5) years. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional representativity of AERONET observation sites during the biomass burning season in South America determined by correlation studies with MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth

This paper presents an analysis of ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observations by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) in South America from 2001 to 2007 in comparison with the satellite AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), aboard TERRA and AQUA satellites. Data of 12 observation sites were used with primary interest in AERONET sites located in or downwind of areas with high biomass burning activity and with measurements available for the full time range. Fires cause the predominant carbonaceous aerosol emission signal during the dry season in South America and are therefore a special focus of this study. Interannual and seasonal behavior of the observed AOD at different sites were investigated, showing clear differences between purely fire and urban influenced sites. An intercomparison of AERONET and MODIS AOD annual correlations revealed that neither an interannual long-term trend may be observed nor that correlations differ significantly owing to different overpass times of TERRA and AQUA. Individual anisotropic representativity areas for each AERONET site were derived by correlating daily AOD of each site for all years with available individual MODIS AOD pixels gridded to 1 degrees x 1 degrees. Results showed that for many sites a good AOD correlation (R(2) > 0.5) persists for large, often strongly anisotropic, areas. The climatological areas of common regional aerosol regimes often extend over several hundreds of kilometers, sometimes far across national boundaries. As a practical application, these strongly inhomogeneous and anisotropic areas of influence are being implemented in the tropospheric aerosol data assimilation system of the Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport Model coupled to the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS) at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). This new information promises an improved exploitation of local site sampling and, thus, chemical weather forecast.

EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY IN BIODIVERSITY SCIENCE, CONSERVATION, AND POLICY: A CALL TO ACTION

Evolutionary biologists have long endeavored to document how many species exist on Earth, to understand the processes by which biodiversity waxes and wanes, to document and interpret spatial patterns of biodiversity, and to infer evolutionary relationships. Despite the great potential of this knowledge to improve biodiversity science, conservation, and policy, evolutionary biologists have generally devoted limited attention to these broader implications. Likewise, many workers in biodiversity science have underappreciated the fundamental relevance of evolutionary biology. The aim of this article is to summarize and illustrate some ways in which evolutionary biology is directly relevant We do so in the context of four broad areas: (1) discovering and documenting biodiversity, (2) understanding the causes of diversification, (3) evaluating evolutionary responses to human disturbances, and (4) implications for ecological communities, ecosystems, and humans We also introduce bioGENESIS, a new project within DIVERSITAS launched to explore the potential practical contributions of evolutionary biology In addition to fostering the integration of evolutionary thinking into biodiversity science, bioGENESIS provides practical recommendations to policy makers for incorporating evolutionary perspectives into biodiversity agendas and conservation. We solicit your involvement in developing innovative ways of using evolutionary biology to better comprehend and stem the loss of biodiversity.

Invasive grasses and native Asteraceae in the Brazilian Cerrado

Anthropogenic disturbances frequently modify natural disturbance regimes and foster the invasion and spread of nonindigenous species. However, there is some dispute about whether disturbance events or invasive plants themselves are the major factors promoting the local extinction of native plant species. Here, we used a set of savanna remnants comprising a gradient of invasive grass cover to evaluate whether the species richness of Asteraceae, a major component of the Brazilian Cerrado, is affected by invasive grass cover, or alternatively, whether variation in richness can be directly ascribed to disturbance-related variables. Furthermore, we evaluate whether habitat-specialist Asteraceae differ from habitat generalist species in their responses to grass invasion. Abundance and species richness showed unimodal variation along the invasive grass gradient for both total Asteraceae and habitat-generalists. The cerrado-specialist species, however, showed no clear variation from low-to-intermediate levels of grass cover, but declined monotonically from intermediate-to-higher levels. Through a structural equation model, we found that only invasive grass cover had significant effects on both abundance and species density of Asteraceae. The effect of invasive grass cover was especially high on the cerrado-specialist species, whose proportion declined consistently with increasing invasive dominance. Our results support the prediction that invasive grasses reduce the floristic uniqueness of pristine vegetation physiognomies.

Araucaria forest dynamics in relation to fire frequency in southern Brazil based on fossil and modern pollen dataf

To elucidate the relationship between forest dynamics and fire frequency pollen percentages and charcoal amounts from a 120 cm long peat core and from samples of modern pollen rain were collected along a transect. The study site in southern Brazil is characterized by a species-rich mosaic of grassland-Araucaria forest. It is of crucial importance for management strategies for conservation to understand the development and maintenance of these vegetation mosaics including their sharp forest-grassland boundaries. During the late Holocene, considerable changes occurred in the area. From Anno Domini (AD) 1360 to 1410, the area was dominated by Campos (grassland) vegetation and fire was very common. From AD 1410 to 1500, Araucaria forest expanded and fire was less frequent. From AD 1500 to 1580, Campos grassland spread and the Araucaria forest ceased its development, apparently due to the increase of fire. From AD 1580 to 1935, after a decrease in fire frequency, Araucaria forest expanded again. From AD 1935 to the present, the Araucaria forest expanded while the Campos area decreased. Fire was very rare in this period. The results indicate a strong interaction of forest expansion, forming a mosaic of Campos and Araucaria forest, and the frequency of fire during the past 600 years. A possible collapse of the indigenous population following the post-Colombian colonization in southern Brazil after about AD 1550 may have caused a great reduction of fire frequency. The introduction of cattle (probably after AD 1780) and the resulting decrease of fire frequency might be the reason for forest expansion. Fire is probably the most important factor controlling the dynamics of the forest-grassland mosaics and the formation of sharp borders between these two vegetation types. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin

Submicron atmospheric particles in the Amazon Basin were characterized by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer during the wet season of 2008. Patterns in the mass spectra closely resembled those of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles formed in environmental chambers from biogenic precursor gases. In contrast, mass spectral indicators of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) were insignificant, suggesting that PBAPs contributed negligibly to the submicron fraction of particles during the period of study. For 40% of the measurement periods, the mass spectra indicate that in-Basin biogenic SOA production was the dominant source of the submicron mass fraction, contrasted to other periods (30%) during which out-of-Basin organic-carbon sources were significant on top of the baseline in-Basin processes. The in-Basin periods had an average organic-particle loading of 0.6 mu g m(-3) and an average elemental oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio of 0.42, compared to 0.9 mu g m(-3) and 0.49, respectively, during periods of out-of-Basin influence. On the basis of the data, we conclude that most of the organic material composing submicron particles over the Basin derived from biogenic SOA production, a finding that is consistent with microscopy observations made in a concurrent study. This source was augmented during some periods by aged organic material delivered by long-range transport. Citation: Chen, Q., et al. (2009), Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20806, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039880.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Fuzzy Logic and Geostatistical Techniques for Spatialization of Soil Texture in Region with Rough Terrains

From the geotechnical standpoint, it is interesting to analyse the soil texture in regions with rough terrain due to its relation with the infiltration and runoff processes and, consequently, the effect on erosion processes. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology that provides the soil texture spatialization by using Fuzzy logic and Geostatistic. The results were correlated with maps drawn specifically for the study area. The knowledge of the spatialization of soil properties, such as the texture, can be an important tool for land use planning in order to reduce the potential soil losses during rain seasons. (c) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of Spatial Statistics 2011

Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation-driven carbon emissions: the INPE-EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE-EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 similar to Mkm2 in 2004 to 7 similar to Mkm2 in 2010. INPE-EM process-based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non-process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1 in 2009; the non-process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. We conclude that the INPE-EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation-driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.

Limnogeology in Brazil's "forgotten wilderness": a synthesis from the large floodplain lakes of the Pantanal

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Principais conclusões do workshop conjunto dos programas FAPESP BIOTA-BIOEN-mudanças climáticas: ciência e políticas públicas para uma economia mais verde, no contexto da RIO+20

Este Ponto de Vista resume as conclusões de um Workshop conjunto, organizado pelos três Programas da FAPESP na Área Ambiental - BIOTA (O Instituto Virtual da Biodiversidade) - BIOEN (Pesquisa em Bioenergia) - Mudanças Climáticas, para discutir a contribuição da comunidade científica para a RIO+20, a Conferência das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável. O grupo de pesquisadores brasileiros reunidos pela FAPESP no início de março de 2012 levantou as seguintes preocupações: a) o número reduzido de oportunidades para a comunidade científica interagir com Conferências como a RIO+20; b) as graves deficiências do ZeroDraft, documento produzido pela Divisão das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável para a RIO +20; c) o fato do foco de pesquisa dos três Programas de Pesquisa Ambiental da FAPESP - biodiversidade, bioenergia e mudanças climáticas - não estarem na pauta das discussões da RIO+20; d) que pouca ênfase é dada aos oceanos na Agenda da Conferência; e) em relação aos mecanismos de mercado associados com a transição para uma economia mais verde, a necessidade de enfatizar a redução de subsídios perversos e a promoção de incentivos econômicos para atividades ou processos de mitigação e/ou seqüestro de carbono; f) a necessidade de estimular o desenvolvimento e a consolidação da pesquisa na área de avaliação e valoração de serviços ambientais, no Brasil. Os participantes do Workshop reconheceram a necessidade de aprofundar o conhecimento sobre as convenções, tratados e acordos internacionais assinados e ratificados pelo Brasil, bem como as instituições internacionais, programas e iniciativas que promovem a participação da comunidade científica no debate de políticas ambientais globais. Finalmente, do ponto de vista dos três programas da FAPESP dois pontos foram destacados: a) que é imperativo aprofundar o conhecimento científico em cada uma das três áreas focais - biodiversidade, bioenergia e mudanças climáticas - porque é necessário aumentar a massa crítica de pesquisadores e do conhecimento para participar das discussões internacionais nessas áreas estratégicas; b) também é imperativo apoiar e promover projetos de pesquisa que integrem as áreas focais dos três programas, estimulando a constituição de equipes inter e transdisciplinares. Esta é uma tendência mundial na área das mudanças ambientais globais, e os participantes dos três programas sentem que podem dar uma contribuição significativa para o avanço do conhecimento, para o debate internacional e para a efetiva solução dos problemas.

Biodiversity, Species Interactions and Ecological Networks in a Fragmented World

Biodiversity is organised into complex ecological networks of interacting species in local ecosystems, but our knowledge about the effects of habitat fragmentation on such systems remains limited. We consider the effects of this key driver of both local and global change on both mutualistic and antagonistic systems at different levels of biological organisation and spatiotemporal scales.There is a complex interplay of patterns and processes related to the variation and influence of spatial, temporal and biotic drivers in ecological networks. Species traits (e.g. body size, dispersal ability) play an important role in determining how networks respond to fragment size and isolation, edge shape and permeability, and the quality of the surrounding landscape matrix. Furthermore, the perception of spatial scale (e.g. environmental grain) and temporal effects (time lags, extinction debts) can differ markedly among species, network modules and trophic levels, highlighting the need to develop a more integrated perspective that considers not just nodes, but the structural role and strength of species interactions (e.g. as hubs, spatial couplers and determinants of connectance, nestedness and modularity) in response to habitat fragmentation.Many challenges remain for improving our understanding: the likely importance of specialisation, functional redundancy and trait matching has been largely overlooked. The potentially critical effects of apex consumers, abundant species and supergeneralists on network changes and evolutionary dynamics also need to be addressed in future research. Ultimately, spatial and ecological networks need to be combined to explore the effects of dispersal, colonisation, extinction and habitat fragmentation on network structure and coevolutionary dynamics. Finally, we need to embed network approaches more explicitly within applied ecology in general, because they offer great potential for improving on the current species-based or habitat-centric approaches to our management and conservation of biodiversity in the face of environmental change.