Evolution of the modern Nile delta promontories: development of accretional features during shoreline retreat

The active accretional features that have developed along the modern Nile Delta promontories during shoreline retreat are analysed using topographic maps, remote imagery, ground and hydrographic surveys, together providing 15 time-slice maps (1922-2000) at Rosetta and 14 time-slice maps (1909-2000) at Damietta. Small double sandy spits developed and persisted at Rosetta between 1986 and 1991. At Damietta, a much larger single spit, 9 km long, formed approximately east of the mouth of the Damietta Nile branch between 1955 and 1972, although its source has now been depleted. Both the Rosetta and Damietta inlets are associated with submerged mouth bars that accumulated prior to the damming of the Nile, but that continue to contribute to local sedimentation problems, particularly at Rosetta. The development of the active accretional features along the Nile promontories reflects a combination of factors including sediment availability, transport pathways from source areas, a decrease in the magnitude of Nile flood discharges, as well as the impact of protective structures at the river mouths.

Remote sensing of intertidal morphological change in Morecambe Bay, U.K., between 1991 and 2007

Tidal Flats are important examples of extensive areas of natural environment that remain relatively unaffected by man. Monitoring of tidal flats is required for a variety of purposes. Remote sensing has become an established technique for the measurement of topography over tidal flats. A further requirement is to measure topographic changes in order to measure sediment budgets. To date there have been few attempts to make quantitative estimates of morphological change over tidal flat areas. This paper illustrates the use of remote sensing to measure quantitative and qualitative changes in the tidal flats of Morecambe Bay during the relatively long period 1991–2007. An understanding of the patterns of sediment transport within the Bay is of considerable interest for coastal management and defence purposes. Tidal asymmetry is considered to be the dominant cause of morphological change in the Bay, with the higher currents associated with the flood tide being the main agency moulding the channel system. Quantitative changes were measured by comparing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the intertidal zone formed using the waterline technique applied to satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from 1991–1994, to a second DEM constructed from airborne laser altimetry data acquired in 2005. Qualitative changes were studied using additional SAR images acquired since 2003. A significant movement of sediment from below Mean Sea Level (MSL) to above MSL was detected by comparing the two Digital Elevation Models, though the proportion of this change that could be ascribed to seasonal effects was not clear. Between 1991 and 2004 there was a migration of the Ulverston channel of the river Leven north-east by about 5 km, followed by the development of a straighter channel to the west, leaving the previous channel decoupled from the river. This is thought to be due to independent tidal and fluvial forcing mechanisms acting on the channel. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing for measurement of long-term morphological change in tidal flat areas. An alternative use of waterlines as partial bathymetry for assimilation into a morphodynamic model of the coastal zone is also discussed.

The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands

This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state–of–the–art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44–year re–analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter–annual variability are described, associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re–analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea–surface temperatures.

Contemporary (2001) and ‘Little Ice Age’ glacier extents in the Buordakh Massif, Cherskiy Range, north east Siberia

The Buordakh Massif of the Cherskiy Range of sub-arctic north east Siberia, Russia has a cold continental climate and supports over 80 glaciers. Despite previous research in the region, a georeferenced map of the glaciers has only recently been completed and an enhanced version of it is reproduced in colour here. The mountains of this region reach heights in excess of 3,000 m and the glaciers on their slopes range in size from 0.1 to 10.4 km2. The mapping has been compiled through the interpretation of Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite imagery from August 2001 which has been augmented by data from a field campaign undertaken at the same time. The glaciers of the region are of the cold, ‘firn-less’ continental type and their mass balance relies heavily on the formation of superimposed ice. Moraines which lie in front of the glaciers by up to a few kilometres are believed to date from the Little Ice Age (ca. 1550-1850 AD). Over half of the glaciers mapped have shown marked retreat from these moraines.

Some factors affecting variation in milk yield in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting milk yield in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of milk yield, body condition score (BCS) and heart girth measurements were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in milk yield were investigated using a general linear model by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. Daily milk yield (including milk sucked by calves) was determined by calving year (p < 0.0001), calf rearing method (p = 0.044) and BCS at calving (p < 0.0001). Only BCS at calving contributed to variation in volume of milk sucked by the calf, lactation length and lactation milk yield. BCS at 3 months after calving was improved on farms where labour was hired (p = 0.041) and BCS change from calving to 6 months was more than twice as likely to be negative on U than SU and PU farms. It was concluded that milk production was predominantly associated with BCS at calving, lactation milk yield increasing quadratically from score 1 to 3. BCS at calving may provide a simple, single indicator of the nutritional status of a cow population.

Some factors affecting reproductive success in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in coastal north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting reproduction in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of reproductive traits and body condition score (BCS) were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in reproductive traits were investigated using a general linear model (GLM) by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), type of insemination, calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. The effects of the independent variables identified were then investigated using a non-parametric survival technique. The number of days to first oestrus was increased on the U site (p = 0.045) and when family labour was used (p = 0.02). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.059), but effect of labour was not significant. The number of days from calving to conception was reduced by hiring labour (p = 0.003) and using natural service (p = 0.028). The non-parametric test confirmed the effects of type of insemination (p = 0.0001) while also identifying extended calving intervals on U and SU sites (p = 0.014). Labour source was again non-significant. Calving interval was prolonged on U and SU sites (p = 0.021), by the use of AI (p = 0.031) and by the use of family labour (p = 0.001). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.008) and insemination type (p > 0.0001) but not of labour source. It was concluded that under favourable conditions (PU site, hired labour and natural service) calving intervals of around 440 days could be achieved.

Neural network feature maps for Chinese phonemes

It has been shown through a number of experiments that neural networks can be used for a phonetic typewriter. Algorithms can be looked on as producing self-organizing feature maps which correspond to phonemes. In the Chinese language the utterance of a Chinese character consists of a very simple string of Chinese phonemes. With this as a starting point, a neural network feature map for Chinese phonemes can be built up. In this paper, feature map structures for Chinese phonemes are discussed and tested. This research on a Chinese phonetic feature map is important both for Chinese speech recognition and for building a Chinese phonetic typewriter.

The MaPS project: mapping teacher conceptions of musical development

The chapter starts from the premise that an historically- and institutionally-formed orientation to music education at primary level in European countries privileges a nineteenth century Western European music aesthetic, with its focus on formal characteristics such as melody and rhythm. While there is a move towards a multi-faceted understanding of musical ability, a discrete intelligence and willingness to accept musical styles or 'open-earedness', there remains a paucity of documented evidence of this in research at primary school level. To date there has been no study undertaken which has the potential to provide policy makers and practitioners with insights into the degree of homogeneity or universality in conceptions of musical ability within this educational sector. Against this background, a study was set up to explore the following research questions: 1. What conceptions of musical ability do primary teachers hold a) of themselves and; b) of their pupils? 2. To what extent are these conceptions informed by Western classical practices? A mixed methods approach was used which included survey questionnaire and semi-structured interview. Questionnaires have been sent to all classroom teachers in a random sample of primary schools in the South East of England. This was followed up with a series of semi-structured interviews with a sub-sample of respondents. The main ideas are concerned with the attitudes, beliefs and working theories held by teachers in contemporary primary school settings. By mapping the extent to which a knowledge base for teaching can be resistant to change in schools, we can problematise primary schools as sites for diversity and migration of cultural ideas. Alongside this, we can use the findings from the study undertaken in an English context as a starting point for further investigation into conceptions of music, musical ability and assessment held by practitioners in a variety of primary school contexts elsewhere in Europe; our emphasis here will be on the development of shared understanding in terms of policies and practices in music education. Within this broader framework, our study can have a significant impact internationally, with potential to inform future policy making, curriculum planning and practice.

Sharing power? Prospects for a U.S. concert-balance strategy

The Pax Americana and the grand strategy of hegemony (or “Primacy”) that underpins it may be becoming unsustainable. Particularly in the wake of exhausting wars, the Global Financial Crisis, and the shift of wealth from West to East, it may no longer be possible or prudent for the United States to act as the unipolar sheriff or guardian of a world order. But how viable are the alternatives, and what difficulties will these alternatives entail in their design and execution? This analysis offers a sympathetic but critical analysis of alternative U.S. National Security Strategies of “retrenchment” that critics of American diplomacy offer. In these strategies, the United States would anticipate the coming of a more multipolar world and organize its behavior around the dual principles of “concert” and “balance,” seeking a collaborative relationship with other great powers, while being prepared to counterbalance any hostile aggressor that threatens world order. The proponents of such strategies argue that by scaling back its global military presence and its commitments, the United States can trade prestige for security, shift burdens, and attain a more free hand. To support this theory, they often look to the 19th-century concert of Europe as a model of a successful security regime and to general theories about the natural balancing behavior of states. This monograph examines this precedent and measures its usefulness for contemporary statecraft to identify how great power concerts are sustained and how they break down. The project also applies competing theories to how states might behave if world politics are in transition: Will they balance, bandwagon, or hedge? This demonstrates the multiple possible futures that could shape and be shaped by a new strategy. viii A new strategy based on an acceptance of multipolarity and the limits of power is prudent. There is scope for such a shift. The convergence of several trends—including transnational problems needing collaborative efforts, the military advantages of defenders, the reluctance of states to engage in unbridled competition, and hegemony fatigue among the American people—means that an opportunity exists internationally and at home for a shift to a new strategy. But a Concert-Balance strategy will still need to deal with several potential dilemmas. These include the difficulty of reconciling competitive balancing with cooperative concerts, the limits of balancing without a forward-reaching onshore military capability, possible unanticipated consequences such as a rise in regional power competition or the emergence of blocs (such as a Chinese East Asia or an Iranian Gulf), and the challenge of sustaining domestic political support for a strategy that voluntarily abdicates world leadership. These difficulties can be mitigated, but they must be met with pragmatic and gradual implementation as well as elegant theorizing and the need to avoid swapping one ironclad, doctrinaire grand strategy for another.

Mapping the trickle out benefits of social and environmental enterprises: a pilot study of an East African eco business

• Objectives The objective of this paper is to propose a framework for mapping the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of social and environmental enterprises in Africa. This framework is then piloted with reference to an East African Ecobusiness. • Prior Work This paper is based on data collected as part of a wider research project examining social and environmental enterprises across the 19 countries of Southern and Eastern Africa. In total, the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of 20 in-depth case studies in 4 countries are being examined. • Approach Data was collected using in-depth interviews with multiple stakeholders associated with the case study business. Secondary materials were also analysed and a quantitative survey of customers undertaken. • Results In addition to their impacts on the environment, African eco businesses can also have substantial social, economic and wider poverty alleviation impacts. This paper maps the impacts of a case study East African ecobusiness, as part of developing a social and environmental enterprise impact framework for Africa and the wider developing world. In our case study, positive and negative impacts are identified, while questions are raised in relation to tradeoffs between social and environmental objectives and temporal dimensions of impact. The usefulness of existing frameworks for understanding the social, environmental and development impacts of these kinds of organisations are also considered. • Implications This paper outlines the necessity of building an African-centric impact map to capture the multi-level poverty alleviation and sustainable development impacts of social and environmental enterprise activity in developing world environments. The framework proposed also offers guidance to businesses operating in Africa about the factors that might be considered as part of their wider social and environmental responsibilities. • Value Assessing the impact of social and environmental enterprises, especially as a route to development within low income countries, is receiving increasing attention in academia and beyond. This paper presents a useful contribution to the scarce literature on social and environmental enterprises in Africa.