A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

Modeling absolute differences in life expectancy with a censored skew-normal regression approach.

Parameter estimates from commonly used multivariable parametric survival regression models do not directly quantify differences in years of life expectancy. Gaussian linear regression models give results in terms of absolute mean differences, but are not appropriate in modeling life expectancy, because in many situations time to death has a negative skewed distribution. A regression approach using a skew-normal distribution would be an alternative to parametric survival models in the modeling of life expectancy, because parameter estimates can be interpreted in terms of survival time differences while allowing for skewness of the distribution. In this paper we show how to use the skew-normal regression so that censored and left-truncated observations are accounted for. With this we model differences in life expectancy using data from the Swiss National Cohort Study and from official life expectancy estimates and compare the results with those derived from commonly used survival regression models. We conclude that a censored skew-normal survival regression approach for left-truncated observations can be used to model differences in life expectancy across covariates of interest.

Modeling the Effects of Size on Patch Dynamics of an Inert Tracer

Mesoscale iron enrichment experiments have revealed that additional iron affects the phytoplankton productivity and carbon cycle. However, the role of initial size of fertilized patch in determining the patch evolution is poorly quantified due to the limited observational capability and complex of physical processes. Using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model, we simulated different sizes of inert tracer patches that were only regulated by physical circulation and diffusion. Model results showed that during the first few days since release of inert tracer, the calculated dilution rate was found to be a linear function with time, which was sensitive to the initial patch size with steeper slope for smaller size patch. After the initial phase of rapid decay, the relationship between dilution rate and time became an exponential function, which was also size dependent. Therefore, larger initial size patches can usually last longer and ultimately affect biogeochemical processes much stronger than smaller patches.

The Discontinuous Nature of Kriging Interpolation for Digital Terrain Modeling

Kriging is a widely employed method for interpolating and estimating elevations from digital elevation data. Its place of prominence is due to its elegant theoretical foundation and its convenient practical implementation. From an interpolation point of view, kriging is equivalent to a thin-plate spline and is one species among the many in the genus of weighted inverse distance methods, albeit with attractive properties. However, from a statistical point of view, kriging is a best linear unbiased estimator and, consequently, has a place of distinction among all spatial estimators because any other linear estimator that performs as well as kriging (in the least squares sense) must be equivalent to kriging, assuming that the parameters of the semivariogram are known. Therefore, kriging is often held to be the gold standard of digital terrain model elevation estimation. However, I prove that, when used with local support, kriging creates discontinuous digital terrain models, which is to say, surfaces with “rips” and “tears” throughout them. This result is general; it is true for ordinary kriging, kriging with a trend, and other forms. A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) digital elevation model was analyzed to characterize the distribution of the discontinuities. I show that the magnitude of the discontinuity does not depend on surface gradient but is strongly dependent on the size of the kriging neighborhood.

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Introducing non-linear analysis into sustained speech characterization to improve sleep apnea detection

We present a novel approach for detecting severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) cases by introducing non-linear analysis into sustained speech characterization. The proposed scheme was designed for providing additional information into our baseline system, built on top of state-of-the-art cepstral domain modeling techniques, aiming to improve accuracy rates. This new information is lightly correlated with our previous MFCC modeling of sustained speech and uncorrelated with the information in our continuous speech modeling scheme. Tests have been performed to evaluate the improvement for our detection task, based on sustained speech as well as combined with a continuous speech classifier, resulting in a 10% relative reduction in classification for the first and a 33% relative reduction for the fused scheme. Results encourage us to consider the existence of non-linear effects on OSA patients' voices, and to think about tools which could be used to improve short-time analysis.

Hybrid incremental modeling based on least squares and fuzzy K-NN for monitoring tool wear in turning processes

There is now an emerging need for an efficient modeling strategy to develop a new generation of monitoring systems. One method of approaching the modeling of complex processes is to obtain a global model. It should be able to capture the basic or general behavior of the system, by means of a linear or quadratic regression, and then superimpose a local model on it that can capture the localized nonlinearities of the system. In this paper, a novel method based on a hybrid incremental modeling approach is designed and applied for tool wear detection in turning processes. It involves a two-step iterative process that combines a global model with a local model to take advantage of their underlying, complementary capacities. Thus, the first step constructs a global model using a least squares regression. A local model using the fuzzy k-nearest-neighbors smoothing algorithm is obtained in the second step. A comparative study then demonstrates that the hybrid incremental model provides better error-based performance indices for detecting tool wear than a transductive neurofuzzy model and an inductive neurofuzzy model.

Modeling and optimization of frequencies on congested bus lines

In this paper some mathematical programming models are exposed in order to set the number of services on a specified system of bus lines, which are intended to assist high demand levels which may arise because of the disruption of Rapid Transit services or during the celebration of massive events. By means of this model two types of basic magnitudes can be determined, basically: a) the number of bus units assigned to each line and b) the number of services that should be assigned to those units. In these models, passenger flow assignment to lines can be considered of the system optimum type, in the sense that the assignment of units and of services is carried out minimizing a linear combination of operation costs and total travel time of users. The models consider delays experienced by buses as a consequence of the get in/out of the passengers, queueing at stations and the delays that passengers experience waiting at the stations. For the case of a congested strategy based user optimal passenger assignment model with strict capacities on the bus lines, the use of the method of successive averages is shown.

Linear latent force models using Gaussian Processes

Purely data-driven approaches for machine learning present difficulties when data are scarce relative to the complexity of the model or when the model is forced to extrapolate. On the other hand, purely mechanistic approaches need to identify and specify all the interactions in the problem at hand (which may not be feasible) and still leave the issue of how to parameterize the system. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach using Gaussian processes and differential equations to combine data-driven modeling with a physical model of the system. We show how different, physically inspired, kernel functions can be developed through sensible, simple, mechanistic assumptions about the underlying system. The versatility of our approach is illustrated with three case studies from motion capture, computational biology, and geostatistics.

Modeling of GRBAS perceptual evaluation using spectral features obtained from an auditory-based filterbank.

Perceptual voice evaluation according to the GRBAS scale is modelled using a linear combination of acoustic parameters calculated after a filter-bank analysis of the recorded voice signals. Modelling results indicate that for breathiness and asthenia more than 55% of the variance of perceptual rates can be explained by such a model, with only 4 latent variables. Moreover, the greatest part of the explained variance can be attributed to only one or two latent variables similarly weighted by all 5 listeners involved in the experiment. Correlation factors between actual rates and model predictions around 0.6 are obtained.

Dynamic modeling of gene expression data

We describe the time evolution of gene expression levels by using a time translational matrix to predict future expression levels of genes based on their expression levels at some initial time. We deduce the time translational matrix for previously published DNA microarray gene expression data sets by modeling them within a linear framework by using the characteristic modes obtained by singular value decomposition. The resulting time translation matrix provides a measure of the relationships among the modes and governs their time evolution. We show that a truncated matrix linking just a few modes is a good approximation of the full time translation matrix. This finding suggests that the number of essential connections among the genes is small.

Linear chaos for the Quick-Thinking-Driver model.

In recent years, the topic of car-following has experimented an increased importance in traffic engineering and safety research. This has become a very interesting topic because of the development of driverless cars (Google driverless cars, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car). Driving models which describe the interaction between adjacent vehicles in the same lane have a big interest in simulation modeling, such as the Quick-Thinking-Driver model. A non-linear version of it can be given using the logistic map, and then chaos appears. We show that an infinite-dimensional version of the linear model presents a chaotic behaviour using the same approach as for studying chaos of death models of cell growth.

Avaliação do processamento por atrito linear em chapas da liga de titânio Ti-6Al-4V.

Esta tese tem por objetivo a aplicação do processamento por atrito linear na liga de titânio Ti-6Al-4V. Derivado da solda por atrito linear, é um processo recente desenvolvido na década de 90 para união de alumínio. Sua aplicação em outros tipos de materiais como aços e ligas de alto desempenho, em especial o titânio, tem interessado a industria. A metodologia utilizada nesta tese para avaliar o processamento por atrito linear, consistiu na execução de ensaios mecânicos de tração em condições mistas em chapas da liga de titânio Ti-6Al-4V. A máquina utilizada para o processamento das chapas foi um centro de usinagem CNC convencional, adaptado com dispositivos especiais. Além dos ensaios de tração em condições mistas, foram executadas medições de microdurezas nas regiões atingidas pelo processo, avaliação das microestruturas resultantes e medições de tensão residual para uma caracterização mais ampla do processo. As microestruturas na região processada são caracterizadas por uma estrutura totalmente transformada. As temperaturas de pico na região processada excederam a temperatura -transus durante o processamento e a transformação da fase + ocorreu durante a fase de resfriamento. A transformação da fase para resultou na formação de agulhas de fase nos contornos e pelo interior dos grãos da fase . Pequenas regiões com estrutura equiaxial de grãos ( globular) foram observados na zona de processamento. A abordagem dos resultados quantitativos foi feita de forma estatística, visando identificar os parâmetros de maior interação com os resultados observados. Foi identificado nesta tese que a rotação da ferramenta apresentou a maior influência nos resultados de tensão residual, microdureza e tensão de escoamento. Uma importante contribuição à modelagem da tensão de escoamento para materiais anisotrópicos é proposta, baseado em um critério de escoamento ortotrópico. Equações complementares baseadas nos testes mistos de tração e cisalhamento são propostas para modificar o modelo ortotrópico. O intuito deste modelo é indicar em que condições o material tem seu regime de escoamento atingido, podendo servir de base para simulações práticas de peças em condições similares.

Overcoming performance and convergence issues of discrete transform based modeling of crosslinking classical and reversible deactivated radical polymerizations

Population balances of polymer species in terms 'of discrete transforms with respect to counts of groups lead to tractable first order partial differential equations when ali rate constants are independent of chain length and loop formation is negligible [l]. Average molecular weights in the absence ofgelation are long known to be readily found through integration of an initial value problem. The extension to size distribution prediction is also feasible, but its performance is often lower to the one provided by methods based upon real chain length domain [2]. Moreover, the absence ofagood starting procedure and a higher numerical sensitivity hás decisively impaired its application to non-linear reversibly deactivated polymerizations, namely NMRP [3].

Modeling of Self-similar Traffic

Modeling of self-similar traffic is performed for the queuing system of G/M/1/K type using Weibull distribution. To study the self-similar traffic the simulation model is developed by using SIMULINK software package in MATLAB environment. Approximation of self-similar traffic on the basis of spline functions. Modeling self-similar traffic is carried outfor QS of W/M/1/K type using the Weibull distribution. Initial data are: the value of Hurst parameter H=0,65, the shape parameter of the distribution curve α≈0,7 and distribution parameter β≈0,0099. Considering that the self-similar traffic is characterized by the presence of "splashes" and long-termdependence between the moments of requests arrival in this study under given initial data it is reasonable to use linear interpolation splines.