A measure of stability as a criterion for the verification and analysis of simulation models

The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.

Intervals between response choices on a single-item measure of quality of life.

BACKGROUND: A single overall rating of quality of life (QoL) is a sensitive method that is often used in population surveys. However, the exact meaning of response choices is unclear. In particular, uneven spacing may affect the way QoL ratings should be analyzed and interpreted. This study aimed to determine the intervals between response choices to a single-item QoL assessment. METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted on data from the Lc65+ cohort study and two additional, population-based, stratified random samples of older people (N = 5,300). Overall QoL was rated as excellent, very good, good, fair or poor. A QoL score (range 0-100) was derived from participants' answers to a 28-item QoL assessment tool. A transformed QoL score ranging from 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent) was calculated. The same procedure was repeated to compute seven domain-specific QoL subscores (Feeling of safety; Health and mobility; Autonomy; Close entourage; Material resources; Esteem and recognition; Social and cultural life). RESULTS: Mean (95 % confidence intervals) QoL scores were 96.23 (95.81-96.65) for excellent, 93.09 (92.74-93.45) for very good, 81.45 (80.63-82.27) for good, 65.44 (62.67-68.20) for fair and 54.52 (45.31-63.73) for poor overall QoL, corresponding to transformed QoL scores of respectively 5.00, 4.70, 3.58, 2.05, and 1.00. Ordinality of the categories excellent to poor was preserved in all seven QoL subscores. CONCLUSIONS: The excellent-to-poor rating scale provides an ordinal measure of overall QoL. The intervals between response choices are unequal, but an interval scale can be obtained after adequate recoding of excellent, very good, good, fair and poor.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Rouhintasorvauksen säätöjärjestelmä

Tässä työssä kuvataan menetelmä, jonka avulla on mahdollista sorvausprosessista mitattujen signaalien perusteella muokata lastuamisprosessin parametreja siten, että prosessissa mahdollisesti esiintyvät ongelmatilanteet korjataan. Työ on tehty osana Feedchip-tutkimushanketta ja tukeutuu tutkimushankkeessa aiemmin tehtyyn työhön vaadittavien korjaustoimenpiteiden, signaaleja mittaavien antureiden instrumentoinnin sekä alustavan ongelmatilanteiden ominaispiirteiden signaaleista tunnistuksen osalta. Tämä työ keskittyy esittelemään toiminnot, joiden avulla aiemmat tulokset voidaan koota yhteen kokonaisuuteen. Järjestelmän toiminta edellyttää sen osien toiminnan korkean tason koordinointia. Lisäksi määritellään päättelyjärjestelmä, joka kykenee mitatuista arvoista tunnistettujen ongelmatilanteiden esiintymisasteiden perusteella määrittämään tarvittavat toimenpiteet ongelmatilanteiden poistamiseksi. Kandidaatintyön rinnalla toteutetaan ohjelmisto Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston konepajatekniikan laboratorion sorvausjärjestelmän yhteyteen rakennetun prototyyppilaitteiston ohjaamiseksi.

Fuzzy subgroups, algebraic and topological points of view and complex analysis

Fuzzy subsets and fuzzy subgroups are basic concepts in fuzzy mathematics. We shall concentrate on fuzzy subgroups dealing with some of their algebraic, topological and complex analytical properties. Explorations are theoretical belonging to pure mathematics. One of our ideas is to show how widely fuzzy subgroups can be used in mathematics, which brings out the wealth of this concept. In complex analysis we focus on Möbius transformations, combining them with fuzzy subgroups in the algebraic and topological sense. We also survey MV spaces with or without a link to fuzzy subgroups. Spectral space is known in MV algebra. We are interested in its topological properties in MV-semilinear space. Later on, we shall study MV algebras in connection with Riemann surfaces. In fact, the Riemann surface as a concept belongs to complex analysis. On the other hand, Möbius transformations form a part of the theory of Riemann surfaces. In general, this work gives a good understanding how it is possible to fit together different fields of mathematics.

Extending the roughness of the data via transitive closures of similarity indexes

One main assumption in the theory of rough sets applied to information tables is that the elements that exhibit the same information are indiscernible (similar) and form blocks that can be understood as elementary granules of knowledge about the universe. We propose a variant of this concept defining a measure of similarity between the elements of the universe in order to consider that two objects can be indiscernible even though they do not share all the attribute values because the knowledge is partial or uncertain. The set of similarities define a matrix of a fuzzy relation satisfying reflexivity and symmetry but transitivity thus a partition of the universe is not attained. This problem can be solved calculating its transitive closure what ensure a partition for each level belonging to the unit interval [0,1]. This procedure allows generalizing the theory of rough sets depending on the minimum level of similarity accepted. This new point of view increases the rough character of the data because increases the set of indiscernible objects. Finally, we apply our results to a not real application to be capable to remark the differences and the improvements between this methodology and the classical one

Development of an instrument to measure the degree of critical patient's satisfaction with nursing care: research protocol

Aim: To investigate and understand patient's satisfaction with nursing care in the intensive care unit to identify the dimensions of the concept of"satisfaction" from the patient's point of view. To design and validate a questionnaire that measures satisfaction levels in critical patients. Background: There are many instruments capable of measuring satisfaction with nursing care; however, they do not address the reality for critical patients nor are they applicable in our context. Design: A dual approach study comprising: a qualitative phase employing Grounded Theory and a quantitative and descriptive phase to prepare and validate the questionnaire. Methods: Data collection in the qualitative phase will consist of: in-depth interview after theoretical sampling, on-site diary and expert discussion group. The sample size will depend on the expected theoretical saturation n = 27-36. Analysis will be based on Grounded Theory. For the quantitative phase, the sampling will be based on convenience (n = 200). A questionnaire will be designed on the basis of qualitative data. Descriptive and inferential statistics will be used. The validation will be developed on the basis of the validity of the content, the criteria of the construct and reliability of the instrument by the Cronbach's alpha and test-retest approach. Approval date for this protocol was November 2010. Discussion: Self-perceptions, beliefs, experiences, demographic, socio-cultural epistemological and political factors are determinants for satisfaction, and these should be taken into account when compiling a questionnaire on satisfaction with nursing care among critical patients.

Conditions for different autonomy regimes in the world : a fuzzy-set application

Avhandlingen behandlar temat territoriell autonomi ur ett globalt perspektiv. Syftet är dels att kartlägga de territoriella autonomierna i världen och dels att visa hur en ny metod som fuzzy-set kan användas inom ämnesområdet jämförande politik. Forskningsproblemet är att försöka finna de bakgrundsfaktorer som förklarar uppkomsten av territoriell autonomi som sådant. Territoriella autonomier ses som särlösningar inom stater. Dessa regioner har erhållit en specialställning i förhållande till andra regioner inom respektive stat och även i förhållande till centralmakten i övrigt. Regionerna kan därför ses som undantag inom det enhetliga federala, regionala eller decentraliserade systemet inom en viss stat ifråga. En kartläggning visar att det finns 65 specialregioner fördelade på 25 stater i världen. De flesta av dessa utgörs av öar. Resultaten visar att det finns två vägar vilka leder till territoriell autonomi i allmänhet. Den ena vägen är en kombination av etnisk särprägel och liten befolkningsmängd, medan den andra vägen utgörs av kombinationen av historiska orsaker och geografiskt avstånd. Båda vägar är lika giltiga och förutsättningen är en demokratisk miljö.

Solving Leontief Input-Output Model with Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers and Gauss-Seidel Algorithm

In this work a fuzzy linear system is used to solve Leontief input-output model with fuzzy entries. For solving this model, we assume that the consumption matrix from di erent sectors of the economy and demand are known. These assumptions heavily depend on the information obtained from the industries. Hence uncertainties are involved in this information. The aim of this work is to model these uncertainties and to address them by fuzzy entries such as fuzzy numbers and LR-type fuzzy numbers (triangular and trapezoidal). Fuzzy linear system has been developed using fuzzy data and it is solved using Gauss-Seidel algorithm. Numerical examples show the e ciency of this algorithm. The famous example from Prof. Leontief, where he solved the production levels for U.S. economy in 1958, is also further analyzed.

A quantitative view on fuzzy numbers

Since its introduction, fuzzy set theory has become a useful tool in the mathematical modelling of problems in Operations Research and many other fields. The number of applications is growing continuously. In this thesis we investigate a special type of fuzzy set, namely fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy numbers (which will be considered in the thesis as possibility distributions) have been widely used in quantitative analysis in recent decades. In this work two measures of interactivity are defined for fuzzy numbers, the possibilistic correlation and correlation ratio. We focus on both the theoretical and practical applications of these new indices. The approach is based on the level-sets of the fuzzy numbers and on the concept of the joint distribution of marginal possibility distributions. The measures possess similar properties to the corresponding probabilistic correlation and correlation ratio. The connections to real life decision making problems are emphasized focusing on the financial applications. We extend the definitions of possibilistic mean value, variance, covariance and correlation to quasi fuzzy numbers and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the finiteness of possibilistic mean value and variance. The connection between the concepts of probabilistic and possibilistic correlation is investigated using an exponential distribution. The use of fuzzy numbers in practical applications is demonstrated by the Fuzzy Pay-Off method. This model for real option valuation is based on findings from earlier real option valuation models. We illustrate the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers and mean value concepts with the method and provide a real life application.

Estimativa das condições de conforto térmico para avicultura de postura usando a teoria dos conjuntos Fuzzy

Neste trabalho, foi utilizada uma ferramenta matemática promissora na análise de sistemas e/ou processos, particularmente na área de produção animal. Essa ferramenta é a desenvolvida segundo a abordagem da teoria dos Conjuntos Fuzzy e, neste caso específico, permitiu a análise da composição das variáveis climáticas independentes, como temperatura de bulbo seco e umidade relativa do ar, que influenciam na variável dependente denominada conforto térmico das aves. Foi realizada a construção de regras baseadas na intuição humana, segundo o conhecimento de especialistas da área, a partir do que é possível simular cenários distintos para o suporte à decisão de construção de galpões para abrigo a animais. Neste trabalho, foi estimado o conforto térmico para alojamento de aves poedeiras em produção. Os resultados foram analisados, usando-se o ambiente de computação científica MATLAB 6.5, o que pode ser realizado iterativamente a cada cenário gerado. Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se analisar as condições de conforto para distintas composições das variáveis de entrada.

Uso da lógica fuzzy na caracterização do ambiente produtivo para matrizes gestantes

O objetivo desta pesquisa consistiu na avaliação do ambiente de alojamento, estimando as condições favoráveis ao melhor desempenho de matrizes gestantes. O experimento foi realizado no período compreendido entre 4-1 e 11-3-2005, em propriedade de produção industrial de suínos, localizada no município de Elias Fausto - SP. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida no setor de gestação, com 24 matrizes primíparas, 12 fêmeas alojadas em baias individuais (T1) e 12 em baias coletivas (T2). O trabalho foi dividido em duas etapas, em função da forma de avaliação dos dados: análise bioclimática e da qualidade do ar, e estimativa dos padrões de conforto térmico ambiental. As variáveis bioclimáticas T (ºC), UR (%), Tgn (ºC) e fisiológicas, taxa respiratória (mov min-1) e temperatura retal (ºC) apontam o sistema de confinamento em baias coletivas como o que possibilitou melhor condicionamento térmico natural às matrizes em gestação. O uso da teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy permitiu que se fizesse inferência entre os dados resultantes do trabalho experimental com os estabelecidos pela literatura, por intermédio de base de regras, para a determinação do conforto ambiental aplicado a matrizes na fase de gestação.

Sistema fuzzy para estimativa do bem-estar de matrizes pesadas

Entender o comportamento e suas pequenas variações decorrentes das mudanças do ambiente térmico e desenvolver modelos que simulem o bem-estar a partir de respostas das aves ao ambiente constituem o primeiro passo para a criação de um sistema de monitoramento digital de aves em galpões de produção. Neste trabalho, foi desenvolvido um sistema de suporte à decisão com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy para a estimativa do bem-estar de matrizes pesadas em função de frequências e duração dos comportamentos expressos pelas aves. O desenvolvimento do sistema passou por cinco etapas distintas: 1) organização dos dados experimentais; 2) apresentação dos vídeos em entrevista com "especialista"; 3) criação das funções de pertinência com base nas entrevistas e na revisão da literatura; 4) simulação de frequências de ocorrências e tempos médios de expressão dos comportamentos classificados como indicadores de bem-estar utilizando equações de regressão obtidas na literatura, e 5) construção das regras, simulação e validação do sistema. O sistema fuzzy desenvolvido estimou satisfatoriamente o bem-estar de matrizes pesadas, tendo na sua última versão, com maior número de regras, acertado 77,8% dos dados experimentais, comparados com as respostas esperadas por um especialista. O sistema pode ser utilizado como instrumento matemático-computacional para apoiar decisões em galpões de produção de matrizes pesadas.

Índice fuzzy de conforto térmico para frangos de corte

A estimativa de conforto térmico na avicultura moderna é importante para que sistemas de climatização possam ser acionados no tempo correto, diminuindo perdas e aumentando rendimentos. Embora a literatura corrente apresente alguns índices de conforto térmico, que são aplicados para essa estimativa, estes são baseados apenas em condições do ambiente térmico e não consideram fatores importantes inerentes aos animais, tais como genética e capacidade de aclimatação, provendo, geralmente, uma estimativa inadequada do conforto térmico das aves. Este trabalho desenvolveu o Índice Fuzzy de Conforto Térmico (IFCT), com o intuito de estimar o conforto térmico de frangos de corte, considerando que o mecanismo usado pelas aves para perda de calor em ambientes fora da zona termoneutra é a vasodilatação periférica, que aumenta a temperatura superficial, e que pode ser usada como indicador do estado de conforto. O IFCT foi desenvolvido a partir de dois experimentos, que proporcionaram 108 cenários ambientais diferentes. Foram usadas imagens termográficas infravermelhas, para o registro dos dados de temperaturas superficiais das penas e da pele, e o grau de empenamento das aves. Para os mesmos cenários de ambiente térmico observados nos experimentos, foram comparados os resultados obtidos usando o IFCT e o Índice de Temperatura e Umidade (ITU). Os resultados validaram o IFCT para a estimativa do conforto térmico de frangos de corte, sendo específico na estimativa de condições de perigo térmico, usual em alojamentos em países de clima tropical. Essa característica é desejável em modelos que estimem o bem-estar térmico de frangos de corte, pois situações classificadas como perigo acarretam no dispêndio de recursos para evitar perdas produtivas.