Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Five-year follow-up after catheter ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation using the stepwise approach and prognostic factors for success

BACKGROUND In the meantime, catheter ablation is widely used for the treatment of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). There is a paucity of data about long-term outcomes. This study evaluates (1) 5-year single and multiple procedure success and (2) prognostic factors for arrhythmia recurrences after catheter ablation of persistent AF using the stepwise approach aiming at AF termination. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 549 patients with persistent AF underwent de novo catheter ablation using the stepwise approach (2007-2009). A total of 493 patients were included (Holter ECGs ≥ every 6 months). Mean follow-up was 59 ± 16 months with 2.1 ± 1.1 procedures per patient. Single and multiple procedure success rates were 20.1% and 55.9%, respectively (80% off antiarrhythmic drug). Antiarrhythmic drug-free multiple procedure success was 46%. Long-term recurrences (n=171) were paroxysmal AF in 48 patients (28%) and persistent AF/atrial tachycardia in 123 patients (72%). Multivariable recurrent event analysis revealed the following factors favoring arrhythmia recurrence: failure to terminate AF during index procedure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.279; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.093-1.497; P = 0.002), number of procedures (HR, 1.154; 95% CI, 1.051-1.267; P = 0.003), female sex (HR, 1.263; 95% CI, 1.027-1.553; P = 0.027), and the presence of structural heart disease (HR, 1.236; 95% CI, 1.003-1.524; P = 0.047). AF termination was correlated with a higher rate of consecutive procedures because of atrial tachycardia recurrences (P = 0.003; HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.20-2.43). CONCLUSIONS Catheter ablation of persistent AF using the stepwise approach provides limited long-term freedom of arrhythmias often requiring multiple procedures. AF termination, the number of procedures, sex, and the presence of structural heart disease correlate with outcome success. AF termination is associated with consecutive atrial tachycardia procedures.

Assessment of the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification by using techniques of mathematical statistics and simulation study

Objectives. This paper seeks to assess the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification in a variety of situations. ^ Methods and results. The effect of misspecification in regression can be approximated by evaluating the correlation between the correct specification and the misspecification of the outcome variable (Harris 2010).In this paper, three misspecified models (linear, categorical and fractional polynomial) were considered. In the first section, the mathematical method of calculating the correlation between correct and misspecified models with simple mathematical forms was derived and demonstrated. In the second section, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007-2008) were used to examine such correlations. Our study shows that comparing to linear or categorical models, the fractional polynomial models, with the higher correlations, provided a better approximation of the true relationship, which was illustrated by LOESS regression. In the third section, we present the results of simulation studies that demonstrate overall misspecification in regression can produce marked decreases in power with small sample sizes. However, the categorical model had greatest power, ranging from 0.877 to 0.936 depending on sample size and outcome variable used. The power of fractional polynomial model was close to that of linear model, which ranged from 0.69 to 0.83, and appeared to be affected by the increased degrees of freedom of this model.^ Conclusion. Correlations between alternative model specifications can be used to provide a good approximation of the effect on statistical power of misspecification when the sample size is large. When model specifications have known simple mathematical forms, such correlations can be calculated mathematically. Actual public health data from NHANES 2007-2008 were used as examples to demonstrate the situations with unknown or complex correct model specification. Simulation of power for misspecified models confirmed the results based on correlation methods but also illustrated the effect of model degrees of freedom on power.^

THE MEASUREMENT OF HUMANISTIC AND DEHUMANISTIC BEHAVIORS IN HOSPITAL NURSING ENVIRONMENTS

The purpose of this investigation was to develop a reliable scale to measure the social environment of hospital nursing units according to the degree of humanistic and dehumanistic behaviors as perceived by nursing staff in hospitals. The study was based on a conceptual model proposed by Jan Howard, a sociologist. After reviewing the literature relevant to personalization of care, analyzing interviews with patients in various settings, and studying biological, psychological, and sociological frames of reference, Howard proposed the following necessary conditions for humanized health care. They were the dimensions of Irreplaceability, Holistic Selves, Freedom of Action, Status Equality, Shared Decision Making and Responsibility, Empathy, and Positive Affect.^ It was proposed that a scale composed of behaviors which reflected Howard's dimensions be developed within the framework of the social environment of nursing care units in hospitals. Nursing units were chosen because hospitals are traditionally organized around nursing care units and because patients spend the majority of their time in hospitals interacting with various levels of nursing personnel.^ Approximately 180 behaviors describing both patient and nursing staff behaviors which occur on nursing units were developed. Behaviors which were believed to be humanistic as well as dehumanistic were included. The items were classified under the dimensions of Howard's model by a purposively selected sample of 42 nurses representing a broad range of education, experience, and clinical areas. Those items with a high degree of agreement, at least 50%, were placed in the questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of 169 items including six items from the Marlowe Crowne Social Desirability Scale (Short Form).^ The questionnaire, the Social Environment Scale, was distributed to the entire 7 to 3 shift nursing staff (603) of four hospitals including a public county specialty hospital, a public county general and acute hospital, a large university affiliated hospital with all services, and a small general community hospital. Staff were asked to report on a Likert type scale how often the listed behaviors occurred on their units. Three hundred and sixteen respondents (52% of the population) participated in the study.^ An item analysis was done in which each item was examined in relationship to its correlation to its own dimension total and to the totals of the other dimensions. As a result of this analysis, three dimensions, Positive Affect, Irreplaceability, and Freedom of Action were deleted from the scale. The final scale consisted of 70 items with 26 in Shared Decision Making and Responsibility, 25 in Holistic Selves, 12 in Status Equality, and seven in Empathy. The alpha coefficient was over .800 for all scales except Empathy which was .597.^ An analysis of variance by hospital was performed on the means of each dimension of the scale. There was a statistically significant difference between hospitals with a trend for the public hospitals to score lower on the scale than the university or community hospitals. That the scale scores should be lower in crowded, understaffed public hospitals was not unexpected and reflected that the scale had some discriminating ability. These differences were still observed after adjusting for the effect of Social Desirability.^ In summary, there is preliminary evidence based on this exploratory investigation that a reliable scale based on at least four dimensions from Howard's model could be developed to measure the concept of humanistic health care in hospital settings. ^

Vocational guidance and development of competences

The present "post modern" socio-cultural modalities and the restrictions of the economic globalization lead us to reflect about the configuration of the transformations in the Vocational Guidance, committed to the concepts of "freedom", "epistemological knowledge", "competences of the subject and new roles of the school. This first exploratory incursion if the research has the purpose of retrieving the concept of freedom from the existential philosophers Heidegger and Sartre and of introducing the subject of "competences" from the social theory of Habermas. The aim is to establish new bonds between the Vocational Guidance and the above-mentioned philosophical lineaments: the freedom of the subjects and the possibility of development of those "competences" that allow to establish social, ethical and epistemological interrelations in the sphere of the Vocational Guidance, that promote a greater solidarity facing the "era of emptiness" of the post-modernity supported by Lipovestky.

Vocational guidance and development of competences

The present "post modern" socio-cultural modalities and the restrictions of the economic globalization lead us to reflect about the configuration of the transformations in the Vocational Guidance, committed to the concepts of "freedom", "epistemological knowledge", "competences of the subject and new roles of the school. This first exploratory incursion if the research has the purpose of retrieving the concept of freedom from the existential philosophers Heidegger and Sartre and of introducing the subject of "competences" from the social theory of Habermas. The aim is to establish new bonds between the Vocational Guidance and the above-mentioned philosophical lineaments: the freedom of the subjects and the possibility of development of those "competences" that allow to establish social, ethical and epistemological interrelations in the sphere of the Vocational Guidance, that promote a greater solidarity facing the "era of emptiness" of the post-modernity supported by Lipovestky.

Vocational guidance and development of competences

The present "post modern" socio-cultural modalities and the restrictions of the economic globalization lead us to reflect about the configuration of the transformations in the Vocational Guidance, committed to the concepts of "freedom", "epistemological knowledge", "competences of the subject and new roles of the school. This first exploratory incursion if the research has the purpose of retrieving the concept of freedom from the existential philosophers Heidegger and Sartre and of introducing the subject of "competences" from the social theory of Habermas. The aim is to establish new bonds between the Vocational Guidance and the above-mentioned philosophical lineaments: the freedom of the subjects and the possibility of development of those "competences" that allow to establish social, ethical and epistemological interrelations in the sphere of the Vocational Guidance, that promote a greater solidarity facing the "era of emptiness" of the post-modernity supported by Lipovestky.

Q method factor analysis of stakeholder social perspectives of the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment public participation in the Western Cape, South Africa

Public participation is an integral part of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and as such, has been incorporated into regulatory norms. Assessment of the effectiveness of public participation has remained elusive however. This is partly due to the difficulty in identifying appropriate effectiveness criteria. This research uses Q methodology to discover and analyze stakeholder's social perspectives of the effectiveness of EIAs in the Western Cape, South Africa. It considers two case studies (Main Road and Saldanha Bay EIAs) for contextual participant perspectives of the effectiveness based on their experience. It further considers the more general opinion of provincial consent regulator staff at the Department of Environmental Affairs and the Department of Planning (DEA&DP). Two main themes of investigation are drawn from the South African National Environmental Management Act imperative for effectiveness: firstly, the participation procedure, and secondly, the stakeholder capabilities necessary for effective participation. Four theoretical frameworks drawn from planning, politics and EIA theory are adapted to public participation and used to triangulate the analysis and discussion of the revealed social perspectives. They consider citizen power in deliberation, Habermas' preconditions for the Ideal Speech Situation (ISS), a Foucauldian perspective of knowledge, power and politics, and a Capabilities Approach to public participation effectiveness. The empirical evidence from this research shows that the capacity and contextual constraints faced by participants demand the legislative imperatives for effective participation set out in the NEMA. The implementation of effective public participation has been shown to be a complex, dynamic and sometimes nebulous practice. The functional level of participant understanding of the process was found to be significantly wide-ranging with consequences of unequal and dissatisfied stakeholder engagements. Furthermore, the considerable variance of stakeholder capabilities in the South African social context, resulted in inequalities in deliberation. The social perspectives revealed significant differences in participant experience in terms of citizen power in deliberation. The ISS preconditions are highly contested in both the Saldanha EIA case study and the DEA&DP social perspectives. Only one Main Road EIA case study social perspective considered Foucault's notion of governmentality as a reality in EIA public participation. The freedom of control of ones environment, based on a Capabilities approach, is a highly contested notion. Although agreed with in principle, all of the social perspectives indicate that contextual and capacity realities constrain its realisation. This research has shown that Q method can be applied to EIA public participation in South Africa and, with the appropriate research or monitoring applications it could serve as a useful feedback tool to inform best practice public participation.

Membrane-bound state of the colicin E1 channel domain as an extended two-dimensional helical array

Atomic level structures have been determined for the soluble forms of several colicins and toxins, but the structural changes that occur after membrane binding have not been well characterized. Changes occurring in the transition from the soluble to membrane-bound state of the C-terminal 190-residue channel polypeptide of colicin E1 (P190) bound to anionic membranes are described. In the membrane-bound state, the α-helical content increases from 60–64% to 80–90%, with a concomitant increase in the average length of the helical segments from 12 to 16 or 17 residues, close to the length required to span the membrane bilayer in the open channel state. The average distance between helical segments is increased and interhelix interactions are weakened, as shown by a major loss of tertiary structure interactions, decreased efficiency of fluorescence resonance energy transfer from an energy donor on helix V of P190 to an acceptor on helix IX, and decreased resonance energy transfer at higher temperatures, not observed in soluble P190, implying freedom of motion of helical segments. Weaker interactions are also shown by a calorimetric thermal transition of low cooperativity, and the extended nature of the helical array is shown by a 3- to 4-fold increase in the average area subtended per molecule to 4,200 Å2 on the membrane surface. The latter, with analysis of the heat capacity changes, implies the absence of a developed hydrophobic core in the membrane-bound P190. The membrane interfacial layer thus serves to promote formation of a highly helical extended two-dimensional flexible net. The properties of the membrane-bound state of the colicin channel domain (i.e., hydrophobic anchor, lengthened and loosely coupled α-helices, and close association with the membrane interfacial layer) are plausible structural features for the state that is a prerequisite for voltage gating, formation of transmembrane helices, and channel opening.

Mobilization of the A-kinase N-myristate through an isoform-specific intermolecular switch

Although the catalytic (C) subunit of cAMP-dependent protein kinase is N-myristylated, it is a soluble protein, and no physiological role has been identified for its myristyl moiety. To determine whether the interaction of the two regulatory (R) subunit isoforms (RI and RII) with the N-myristylated C subunit affects its ability to target membranes, the effect of N-myristylation and the RI and RII subunit isoforms on C subunit binding to phosphatidylcholine/phosphatidylserine liposomes was examined. Only the combination of N-myristylation and RII subunit interaction produced a dramatic increase in the rate of liposomal binding. To assess whether the RII subunit also increased the conformational flexibility of the C subunit N terminus, the effect of N-myristylation and the RI and RII subunits on the rotational freedom of the C subunit N terminus was measured. Specifically, fluorescein maleimide was conjugated to Cys-16 in the N-terminal domain of a K16C mutant of the C subunit, and the time-resolved emission anisotropy was determined. The interaction of the RII subunit, but not the RI subunit, significantly increased the backbone flexibility around the site of mutation and labeling, strongly suggesting that RII subunit binding to the myristylated C subunit induced a unique conformation of the C subunit that is associated with an increase in both the N-terminal flexibility and the exposure of the N-myristate. RII subunit thus appears to serve as an intermolecular switch that disrupts of the link between the N-terminal and core catalytic domains of the C subunit to expose the N-myristate and poise the holoenzyme for interaction with membranes.

Ethics and access to teaching materials in the medical library: the case of the Pernkopf atlas*

Conflicts can occur between the principle of freedom of information treasured by librarians and ethical standards of scientific research involving the propriety of using data derived from immoral or dishonorable experimentation. A prime example of this conflict was brought to the attention of the medical and library communities in 1995 when articles claiming that the subjects of the illustrations in the classic anatomy atlas, Eduard Pernkopf's Topographische Anatomie des Menschen, were victims of the Nazi holocaust. While few have disputed the accuracy, artistic, or educational value of the Pernkopf atlas, some have argued that the use of such subjects violates standards of medical ethics involving inhuman and degrading treatment of subjects or disrespect of a human corpse. Efforts were made to remove the book from medical libraries. In this article, the history of the Pernkopf atlas and the controversy surrounding it are reviewed. The results of a survey of academic medical libraries concerning their treatment of the Pernkopf atlas are reported, and the ethical implications of these issues as they affect the responsibilities of librarians is discussed.

Internet Civil Liberties in the U.S. and the Protection of the Modern Terrorist

This capstone examines the civil liberties of the modern terrorist and explicates the right to freedom of speech for terrorist organizations and their use of the internet. Terrorist organizations use the internet to promote ideas, recruit members, organize the flow of information, and coordinate actions. During the war on terror the US Patriot Act became law allowing for U.S. government censorship and surveillance of internet traffic and many believe these acts are a threat to civil liberties. Terrorist organizations have the right to express their views, however unpopular, and censoring or restricting web sites diminishes civil liberties for all, which democracies and liberal societies are founded upon.

An Independent Art Movement: The Independent Artist, Community Television, and the Age of Information

The history of community television shows that it has been a home to activist and non-profit organizations that have created programs focused on freedom of speech. This project proposes that community television is also a place where artists can have freedom of artistic expression. The reflective paper reviews the creation of my film designed to inform and attract artists to community television. In it I critically reflect on the artistic, technical, artistic/technical, and production changes made throughout my journey from being a visual artist to becoming a video-artist. The reflective paper, along with the film, act as a wake-up call to artists who are unaware of community television and the advantages it has to offer them.

Management of social networks in the educational process

The research developed in this work consists in proposing a set of techniques for management of social networks and their integration into the educational process. The proposals made are based on assumptions that have been proven with simple examples in a real scenario of university teaching. The results show that social networks have more capacity to spread information than educational web platforms. Moreover, educational social networks are developed in a context of freedom of expression intrinsically linked to Internet freedom. In that context, users can write opinions or comments which are not liked by the staff of schools. However, this feature can be exploited to enrich the educational process and improve the quality of their achievement. The network has covered needs and created new ones. So, the figure of the Community Manager is proposed as agent in educational context for monitoring network and aims to channel the opinions and to provide a rapid response to an academic problem.

"Conscience is the best casuist" (manuscript essay), 1799 September 10

Three-page handwritten essay in English by Buckminster on the subject of conscience told through a story about a young man named Henry who saves a starving woman. The essay begins, "The disquisitions of the metaphysical world upon the origin and nature of conscience are quite unnecessary to a complete comprehension of the significancy of our motto." The essay is titled with a quote from Jean-Jacques Rousseau's Emile, Or on Education.