Can falls risk prediction tools correctly identify fall-prone elderly rehabilitation inpatients? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Falls of elderly people may cause permanent disability or death. Particularly susceptible are elderly patients in rehabilitation hospitals. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify falls prediction tools available for assessing elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Methods and Findings We searched six electronic databases using comprehensive search strategies developed for each database. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted in ROC space graphs and pooled across studies. Our search identified three studies which assessed the prediction properties of falls prediction tools in a total of 754 elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Only the STRATIFY tool was assessed in all three studies; the other identified tools (PJC-FRAT and DOWNTON) were assessed by a single study. For a STRATIFY cut-score of two, pooled sensitivity was 73% (95%CI 63 to 81%) and pooled specificity was 42% (95%CI 34 to 51%). An indirect comparison of the tools across studies indicated that the DOWNTON tool has the highest sensitivity (92%), while the PJC-FRAT offers the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (73% and 75%, respectively). All studies presented major methodological limitations. Conclusions We did not identify any tool which had an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity, or which were clearly better than a simple clinical judgment of risk of falling. The limited number of identified studies with major methodological limitations impairs sound conclusions on the usefulness of falls risk prediction tools in geriatric rehabilitation hospitals.

The Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale in subjects clinically at high risk of psychosis

Objective:  To investigate the predictive value of the Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale (SCPS) for transition to a first psychotic episode in subjects clinically at high risk (CHR) of psychosis. Method:  Two hundred and forty-four CHR subjects participating in the European Prediction of Psychosis Study were assessed with the SCPS, an instrument that has been shown to predict outcome in patients with schizophrenia reliably. Results:  At 18-month follow-up, 37 participants had made the transition to psychosis. The SCPS total score was predictive of a first psychotic episode (P < 0.0001). SCPS items that remained as independent predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model were as follows: most usual quality of useful work in the past year (P = 0.006), quality of social relations (P = 0.006), presence of thought disorder, delusions or hallucinations in the past year (P = 0.001) and reported severity of subjective distress in past month (P = 0.003). Conclusion:  The SCPS could make a valuable contribution to a more accurate prediction of psychosis in CHR subjects as a second-step tool. SCPS items assessing quality of useful work and social relations, positive symptoms and subjective distress have predictive value for transition. Further research should focus on investigating whether targeted early interventions directed at the predictive domains may improve outcomes.

Clinical outcomes of patients with estimated low or intermediate surgical risk undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

AimsTranscatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an established treatment alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement in high-risk and inoperable patients and outcomes among patients with estimated low or intermediate risk remain to be determined. The aim of this study was to assess clinical outcomes among patients with estimated low or intermediate surgical risk undergoing TAVI.Methods and resultsBetween August 2007 and October 2011, 389 consecutive patients underwent TAVI and were categorized according to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score into low (STS < 3%; n = 41, 10.5%), intermediate (STS ≥3% and ≤8%, n = 254, 65.3%), and high-risk (STS > 8%; n = 94, 24.2%) groups for the purpose of this study. Significant differences were found between the groups (low risk vs. intermediate risk vs. high risk) for age (78.2 ± 6.7 vs. 82.7 ± 5.7 vs. 83.7 ± 4.9, P < 0.001), body mass index (28.1 ± 6.1 vs. 26.5 ± 4.9 vs. 24.4 ± 4.6, P < 0.001), chronic renal failure (34 vs. 67 vs. 90%, P < 0.001), all-cause mortality at 30 days (2.4 vs. 3.9 vs. 14.9%, P = 0.001), and all-cause mortality at 1 year (10.1 vs. 16.1 vs. 34.5%, P = 0.0003). No differences were observed with regards to cerebrovascular accidents and myocardial infarction during 1-year follow-up.ConclusionIn contemporary practice, TAVI is not limited to inoperable or STS-defined high-risk patients and should be guided by the decision of an interdisciplinary Heart Team. Compared with patients at calculated high risk, well-selected patients with STS-defined intermediate or low risk appear to have favourable clinical outcomes.

Concomitant Vascular Reconstruction During Pancreatectomy for Malignant Disease: A Propensity Score-Adjusted, Population-Based Trend Analysis Involving 10 206 Patients

OBJECTIVE To assess trends in the frequency of concomitant vascular reconstructions (VRs) from 2000 through 2009 among patients who underwent pancreatectomy, as well as to compare the short-term outcomes between patients who underwent pancreatic resection with and without VR. DESIGN Single-center series have been conducted to evaluate the short-term and long-term outcomes of VR during pancreatic resection. However, its effectiveness from a population-based perspective is still unknown. Unadjusted, multivariable, and propensity score-adjusted generalized linear models were performed. SETTING Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2000 through 2009. PATIENTS A total of 10 206 patients were involved. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of VR during pancreatic resection, perioperative in-hospital complications, and length of hospital stay. RESULTS Overall, 10 206 patients were included in this analysis. Of these, 412 patients (4.0%) underwent VR, with the rate increasing from 0.7% in 2000 to 6.0% in 2009 (P < .001). Patients who underwent pancreatic resection with VR were at a higher risk for intraoperative (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio, 1.94; P = .001) and postoperative (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio, 1.36; P = .008) complications, while the mortality and median length of hospital stay were similar to those of patients without VR. Among the 25% of hospitals with the highest surgical volume, patients who underwent pancreatic surgery with VR had significantly higher rates of postoperative complications and mortality than patients without VR. CONCLUSIONS The frequency of VR during pancreatic surgery is increasing in the United States. In contrast with most single-center analyses, this population-based study demonstrated that patients who underwent VR during pancreatic surgery had higher rates of adverse postoperative outcomes than their counterparts who underwent pancreatic resection only. Prospective studies incorporating long-term outcomes are warranted to further define which patients benefit from VR.

Sleep-disordered breathing and acute ischemic stroke: diagnosis, risk factors, treatment, evolution, and long-term clinical outcome

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is frequent in stroke patients. Risk factors, treatment response, short-term and long-term outcome of SDB in stroke patients are poorly known. METHODS: We prospectively studied 152 patients (mean age 56+/-13 years) with acute ischemic stroke. Cardiovascular risk factors, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), stroke severity/etiology, and time of stroke onset were assessed. The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was determined 3+/-2 days after stroke onset and 6 months later (subacute phase). Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment was started acutely in patients with SDB (AHI > or =15 or AHI > or =10+ESS >10). CPAP compliance, incidence of vascular events, and stroke outcome were assessed 60+/-16 months later (chronic phase). RESULTS: Initial AHI was 18+/-16 (> or =10 in 58%, > or =30 in 17% of patients) and decreased in the subacute phase (P<0.001). Age, diabetes, and nighttime stroke onset were independent predictors of AHI (r2=0.34). In patients with AHI > or =30, age, male gender, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, ESS, and macroangiopathic etiology of stroke were significantly higher/more common than in patients with AHI <10. Long-term incidence of vascular events and stroke outcome were similar in both groups. CPAP was started in 51% and continued chronically in 15% of SDB pts. Long-term stroke mortality was associated with initial AHI, age, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: SDB is common particularly in elderly stroke male patients with diabetes, nighttime stroke onset, and macroangiopathy as cause of stroke; it improves after the acute phase, is associated with an increased poststroke mortality, and can be treated with CPAP in a small percentage of patients.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC risk individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Multicentre study on peri- and postoperative central venous oxygen saturation in high-risk surgical patients

Introduction Low central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) has been associated with increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. Whether this association is centre-specific or more generalisable is not known. The aim of this study was to assess the association between peri- and postoperative ScvO2 and outcome in high-risk surgical patients in a multicentre setting. Methods Three large European university hospitals (two in Finland, one in Switzerland) participated. In 60 patients with intra-abdominal surgery lasting more than 90 minutes, the presence of at least two of Shoemaker's criteria, and ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) class greater than 2, ScvO2 was determined preoperatively and at two hour intervals during the operation until 12 hours postoperatively. Hospital length of stay (LOS) mortality, and predefined postoperative complications were recorded. Results The age of the patients was 72 ± 10 years (mean ± standard deviation), and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) was 32 ± 12. Hospital LOS was 10.5 (8 to 14) days, and 28-day hospital mortality was 10.0%. Preoperative ScvO2 decreased from 77% ± 10% to 70% ± 11% (p < 0.001) immediately after surgery and remained unchanged 12 hours later. A total of 67 postoperative complications were recorded in 32 patients. After multivariate analysis, mean ScvO2 value (odds ratio [OR] 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.50], p = 0.037), hospital LOS (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.59 to 0.94], p = 0.012), and SAPS II (OR 0.90 [95% CI 0.82 to 0.99], p = 0.029) were independently associated with postoperative complications. The optimal value of mean ScvO2 to discriminate between patients who did or did not develop complications was 73% (sensitivity 72%, specificity 61%). Conclusion Low ScvO2 perioperatively is related to increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. This warrants trials with goal-directed therapy using ScvO2 as a target in high-risk surgery patients.

International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis score for overt disseminated intravascular coagulation predicts organ dysfunction and fatality in sepsis patients

We evaluated the score for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) recently published by the International Society for Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) in a well-defined series of sepsis patients. Thirty-two patients suffering from severe sepsis and eight patients with septic shock were evaluated following the ISTH DIC score. Fibrin monomer and D-dimer were chosen as fibrin-related markers (FRM), respectively. DIC scores for nonsurvivors (n = 13) as well as for septic shock patients were higher (P < 0.04) compared with survivors and patients with severe sepsis, respectively. Using fibrin monomer and D-dimer, 30 and 25% of patients suffered from overt DIC. Overt DIC was associated with significantly elevated thrombin-antithrombin complexes and plasminogen activator inhibitor type-1 levels as well as with significantly lower factor VII clotting activity. Patients with overt DIC had a significantly higher risk of death and of developing septic shock. Since more than 95% of the sepsis patients had elevated FRM, the DIC score was strongly dependent on prolongation of the prothrombin time and platelet counts. The ISTH DIC score is useful to identify patients with coagulation activation, predicting fatality and disease severity. It mainly depends on the prolongation of the prothrombin time and platelet counts.

Snoring in preschool children: prevalence, severity and risk factors

Epidemiological data on snoring from preschool children are scarce, although habitual snoring (snoring on almost all nights) has been associated with poor long-term outcomes. In a population survey of 6,811 children aged 1-4 yrs (from Leicestershire, UK) the present authors determined prevalence, severity and risk factors for snoring, especially habitual snoring. In 59.7% of the children, parents reported snoring in the previous 12 months, including 7.9% with habitual snoring and 0.9% with habitual snoring and sleep disturbance. Prevalence of habitual snoring increased with age from 6.6% in 1-yr-olds to 13.0% in 4-yr-olds. Habitual snoring was associated with: one and both parents smoking (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.46 and 2.09, respectively); road traffic (OR 1.23); single parent (OR 1.60); and in White but not South Asian children, socioeconomic deprivation (OR 1.25 and 2.03 for middle and upper thirds of Townsend score, respectively). Respiratory tract symptoms related to atopic disorders and to respiratory infections were strongly associated with snoring; however, body mass index was not. In conclusion, habitual snoring is common in preschool children with one-third of cases attributable to avoidable risk factors. The strong association with atopic disorders, viral infections and environmental exposures suggests a complex aetiology, based on a general vulnerability of the respiratory tract.

Osteoporosis case finding in the general practice: phalangeal radiographic absorptiometry with and without risk factors for osteoporosis to select postmenopausal women eligible for lumbar spine and hip densitometry

Mass screening for osteoporosis using DXA measurements at the spine and hip is presently not recommended by health authorities. Instead, risk factor questionnaires and peripheral bone measurements may facilitate the selection of women eligible for axial bone densitometry. The aim of this study was to validate a case finding strategy for postmenopausal women who would benefit most from subsequent DXA measurement by using phalangeal radiographic absorptiometry (RA) alone or in combination with risk factors in a general practice setting. The sensitivity and specificity of this strategy in detecting osteoporosis (T-score < or =2.5 SD at the spine and/or the hip) were compared with those of the current reimbursement criteria for DXA measurements in Switzerland. Four hundred and twenty-three postmenopausal women with one or more risk factors for osteoporosis were recruited by 90 primary care physicians who also performed the phalangeal RA measurements. All women underwent subsequent DXA measurement of the spine and the hip at the Osteoporosis Policlinic of the University Hospital of Berne. They were allocated to one of two groups depending on whether they matched with the Swiss reimbursement conditions for DXA measurement or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the likelihood of osteoporosis versus "no osteoporosis" and to derive ROC curves for the various strategies. Differences in the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were tested for significance. In women lacking reimbursement criteria, RA achieved a significantly larger AUC (0.81; 95% CI 0.72-0.89) than the risk factors associated with patients' age, height and weight (0.71; 95% C.I. 0.62-0.80). Furthermore, in this study, RA provided a better sensitivity and specificity in identifying women with underlying osteoporosis than the currently accepted criteria for reimbursement of DXA measurement. In the Swiss environment, RA is a valid case finding tool for patients with risk factors for osteoporosis, especially for those who do not qualify for DXA reimbursement.

Age-dependent differences in demographics, risk factors, co-morbidity, etiology, management, and clinical outcome of acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND : Comparisons between younger and older stroke patients including comorbidities are limited. METHODS : Prospective data of consecutive patients with first ever acute ischemic stroke were compared between younger ( 45 years). RESULTS : Among 1004 patients, 137 (14 %) were score (p < 0.0001), diabetes (p = 0.041), and CCI (p = 0.002) independently predicted an unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS : Younger patients were more likely to be female, had different risk factors and etiologies and fewer co-morbidities. There was no independent association between age and clinical outcome or mortality.

Increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with hepatitis C cirrhosis and diabetes mellitus

Recent studies suggest that diabetes mellitus increases the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study is to quantify the risk of HCC among patients with both diabetes mellitus and hepatitis C in a large cohort of patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis. We included 541 patients of whom 85 (16%) had diabetes mellitus. The median age at inclusion was 50 years. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus was 10.5% for patients with Ishak fibrosis score 4, 12.5% for Ishak score 5, and 19.1% for Ishak score 6. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed an increased risk of diabetes mellitus for patients with an elevated body mass index (BMI) (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.11; P = 0.060) and a decreased risk of diabetes mellitus for patients with higher serum albumin levels (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.63-1.04; P = 0.095). During a median follow-up of 4.0 years (interquartile range, 2.0-6.7), 11 patients (13%) with diabetes mellitus versus 27 patients (5.9%) without diabetes mellitus developed HCC, the 5-year occurrence of HCC being 11.4% (95% CI, 3.0-19.8) and 5.0% (95% CI, 2.2-7.8), respectively (P = 0.013). Multivariate Cox regression analysis of patients with Ishak 6 cirrhosis showed that diabetes mellitus was independently associated with the development of HCC (hazard ratio, 3.28; 95% CI, 1.35-7.97; P = 0.009). CONCLUSION: For patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus increases the risk of developing HCC.

Effect of once-yearly zoledronic acid 5 mg on fracture risk and change in femoral neck bone mineral density

Context: In the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly - Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg significantly reduced fracture risk. Objective: To identify factors associated with greater efficacy during ZOL 5 mg treatment. Design, Setting and Patients: Subgroup analysis (preplanned and post hoc) of a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 36-month trial in 7765 women with postmenopausal osteoporosis. Intervention: Single infusion of ZOL 5 mg or placebo at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Main Outcome Measures: Primary endpoints: new vertebral fracture and hip fracture. Secondary endpoints: non-vertebral fracture, change in femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline risk factor subgroups: age, BMD T-score and vertebral fracture status, total hip BMD, race, weight, geographical region, smoking, height loss, history of falls, physical activity, prior bisphosphonates, creatinine clearance, body mass index (BMI), concomitant osteoporosis medications. Results: Greater ZOL induced effects on vertebral fracture risk with younger age (treatment-by-subgroup interaction P=0.05), normal creatinine clearance (P=0.04), and BMI >/=25 kg/m(2) (P=0.02). There were no significant treatment-factor interactions for hip or non-vertebral fracture or for change in BMD. Conclusions: ZOL appeared more effective in preventing vertebral fracture in younger women, overweight/obese women and women with normal renal function. ZOL had similar effects irrespective of fracture risk factors or femoral neck BMD.

Validation of the estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) score in liver surgery

BACKGROUND: The estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) has been used to produce a numerical estimate of expected mortality and morbidity after elective gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was to validate E-PASS in a selected cohort of patients requiring liver resections (LR). METHODS: In this retrospective study, E-PASS predictor equations for morbidity and mortality were applied to the prospective data from 243 patients requiring LR. The observed rates were compared with predicted rates using Fisher's exact test. The discriminative capability of E-PASS was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The observed and predicted overall mortality rates were both 3.3% and the morbidity rates were 31.3 and 26.9%, respectively. There was a significant difference in the comprehensive risk scores for deceased and surviving patients (p = 0.043). However, the scores for patients with or without complications were not significantly different (p = 0.120). Subsequent ROC curve analysis revealed a poor predictive accuracy for morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The E-PASS score seems to effectively predict mortality in this specific group of patients but is a poor predictor of complications. A new modified logistic regression might be required for LR in order to better predict the postoperative outcome.