883 resultados para Fractional regression models
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Abstract BACKGROUND: An examination of melanoma incidence according to anatomical region may be one method of monitoring the impact of public health initiatives. OBJECTIVES: To examine melanoma incidence trends by body site, sex and age at diagnosis or body site and morphology in a population at high risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Population-based data on invasive melanoma cases (n = 51473) diagnosed between 1982 and 2008 were extracted from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated using the direct method (2000 world standard population) and joinpoint regression models were used to fit trend lines. RESULTS: Significantly decreasing trends for melanomas on the trunk and upper limbs/shoulders were observed during recent years for both sexes under the age of 40 years and among males aged 40-59years. However, in the 60 and over age group, the incidence of melanoma is continuing to increase at all sites (apart from the trunk) for males and on the scalp/neck and upper limbs/shoulders for females. Rates of nodular melanoma are currently decreasing on the trunk and lower limbs. In contrast, superficial spreading melanoma is significantly increasing on the scalp/neck and lower limbs, along with substantial increases in lentigo maligna melanoma since the late 1990s at all sites apart from the lower limbs. CONCLUSIONS: In this large study we have observed significant decreases in rates of invasive melanoma in the younger age groups on less frequently exposed body sites. These results may provide some indirect evidence of the impact of long-running primary prevention campaigns.
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Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of weather variables in influencing the incidence of influenza. However, the role of air pollution is often ignored in identifying the environmental drivers of influenza. This research aims to examine the impacts of air pollutants and temperature on the incidence of pediatric influenza in Brisbane, Australia. Lab-confirmed daily data on influenza counts among children aged 0-14years in Brisbane from 2001 January 1st to 2008 December 31st were retrieved from Queensland Health. Daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures for the same period were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Winter was chosen as the main study season due to it having the highest pediatric influenza incidence. Four Poisson log-linear regression models, with daily pediatric seasonal influenza counts as the outcome, were used to examine the impacts of air pollutants (i.e., ozone (O3), particulate matter≤10μm (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) and temperature (using a moving average of ten days for these variables) on pediatric influenza. The results show that mean temperature (Relative risk (RR): 0.86; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.82-0.89) was negatively associated with pediatric seasonal influenza in Brisbane, and high concentrations of O3 (RR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.25-1.31) and PM10 (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.10-1.13) were associated with more pediatric influenza cases. There was a significant interaction effect (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.95) between PM10 and mean temperature on pediatric influenza. Adding the interaction term between mean temperature and PM10 substantially improved the model fit. This study provides evidence that PM10 needs to be taken into account when evaluating the temperature-influenza relationship. O3 was also an important predictor, independent of temperature.
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BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.
Access to commercial destinations within the neighbourhood and walking among Australian older adults
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BACKGROUND: Physical activity, particularly walking, is greatly beneficial to health; yet a sizeable proportion of older adults are insufficiently active. The importance of built environment attributes for walking is known, but few studies of older adults have examined neighbourhood destinations and none have investigated access to specific, objectively-measured commercial destinations and walking. METHODS: We undertook a secondary analysis of data from the Western Australian state government's health surveillance survey for those aged 65--84 years and living in the Perth metropolitan region from 2003--2009 (n = 2,918). Individual-level road network service areas were generated at 400 m and 800 m distances, and the presence or absence of six commercial destination types within the neighbourhood service areas identified (food retail, general retail, medical care services, financial services, general services, and social infrastructure). Adjusted logistic regression models examined access to and mix of commercial destination types within neighbourhoods for associations with self-reported walking behaviour. RESULTS: On average, the sample was aged 72.9 years (SD = 5.4), and was predominantly female (55.9%) and married (62.0%). Overall, 66.2% reported some weekly walking and 30.8% reported sufficient walking (>=150 min/week). Older adults with access to general services within 400 m (OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.07-1.66) and 800 m (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.02-1.42), and social infrastructure within 800 m (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.01-1.40) were more likely to engage in some weekly walking. Access to medical care services within 400 m (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.63-0.93) and 800 m (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70-0.99) reduced the odds of sufficient walking. Access to food retail, general retail, financial services, and the mix of commercial destination types within the neighbourhood were all unrelated to walking. CONCLUSIONS: The types of neighbourhood commercial destinations that encourage older adults to walk appear to differ slightly from those reported for adult samples. Destinations that facilitate more social interaction, for example eating at a restaurant or church involvement, or provide opportunities for some incidental social contact, for example visiting the pharmacy or hairdresser, were the strongest predictors for walking among seniors in this study. This underscores the importance of planning neighbourhoods with proximate access to social infrastructure, and highlights the need to create residential environments that support activity across the life course.
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BACKGROUND: Variations in 'slope' (how steep or flat the ground is) may be good for health. As walking up hills is a physiologically vigorous physical activity and can contribute to weight control, greater neighbourhood slopes may provide a protective barrier to weight gain, and help prevent Type 2 diabetes onset. We explored whether living in 'hilly' neighbourhoods was associated with diabetes prevalence among the Australian adult population. METHODS: Participants ([greater than or equal to]25years; n=11,406) who completed the Western Australian Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System Survey (2003-2009) were asked whether or not they had medically-diagnosed diabetes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software was used to calculate a neighbourhood mean slope score, and other built environment measures at 1600m around each participant's home. Logistic regression models were used to predict the odds of self-reported diabetes after progressive adjustment for individual measures (i.e., age, sex), socioeconomic status (i.e., education, income), built environment, destinations, nutrition, and amount of walking. RESULTS: After full adjustment, the odds of self-reported diabetes was 0.72 (95% CI 0.55-0.95) and 0.52 (95% CI 0.39-0.69) for adults living in neighbourhoods with moderate and higher levels of slope, respectively, compared with adults living in neighbourhoods with the lowest levels of slope. The odds of having diabetes was 13% lower (odds ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.80-0.94) for each increase of one percent in mean slope. CONCLUSIONS: Living in a hilly neighbourhood may be protective of diabetes onset or this finding is spurious. Nevertheless, the results are promising and have implications for future research and the practice of flattening land in new housing developments.
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Aim Physical activity (PA) patterns of retirement village residents were investigated using self-report and objective measures. Methods Residents (n = 323) from retirement villages in Perth, Australia, were surveyed on PA behaviour and various demographic, residency, health-related and mobility factors. Most participants wore accelerometers for 7 days. Retirement village managers (n = 32) were surveyed on village descriptive characteristics, including the provision of amenities and facilities. Logistic regression models examined village and resident characteristics associated with PA. Results Based on objective measurement, only 27.1% of participants were sufficiently active (n = 288). Walking was one of the most popular PA modes. Few village characteristics were associated with PA; however, villages located in more walkable neighbourhoods increased participants’ odds of transport walking. Travelling outside the village daily also increased PA odds. Conclusions Most residents were insufficiently active to gain health benefits. Considering individual and environmental factors, within the retirement village and neighbourhood settings, and associations with PA, warrants attention.
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OBJECTIVES To investigate and describe the relationship between indigenous Australian populations, residential aged care services, and community-onset Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) among patients admitted to public hospitals in Queensland, Australia. DESIGN Ecological study. METHODS We used administrative healthcare data linked to microbiology results from patients with SAB admitted to Queensland public hospitals from 2005 through 2010 to identify community-onset infections. Data about indigenous Australian population and residential aged care services at the local government area level were obtained from the Queensland Office of Economic and Statistical Research. Associations between community-onset SAB and indigenous Australian population and residential aged care services were calculated using Poisson regression models in a Bayesian framework. Choropleth maps were used to describe the spatial patterns of SAB risk. RESULTS We observed a 21% increase in relative risk (RR) of bacteremia with methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA; RR, 1.21 [95% credible interval, 1.15-1.26]) and a 24% increase in RR with nonmultiresistant methicillin-resistant S. aureus (nmMRSA; RR, 1.24 [95% credible interval, 1.13-1.34]) with a 10% increase in the indigenous Australian population proportion. There was no significant association between RR of SAB and the number of residential aged care services. Areas with the highest RR for nmMRSA and MSSA bacteremia were identified in the northern and western regions of Queensland. CONCLUSIONS The RR of community-onset SAB varied spatially across Queensland. There was increased RR of community-onset SAB with nmMRSA and MSSA in areas of Queensland with increased indigenous population proportions. Additional research should be undertaken to understand other factors that increase the risk of infection due to this organism.
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Purpose To investigate the application of retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness as a marker for severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in people with Type 2 diabetes. Methods This was a cross-sectional study whereby 61 participants (mean age 61 [41-75 years], mean duration of diabetes 14 [1-40 years], 70% male) with Type 2 diabetes and DPN underwent optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans. Global and 4 quadrant (TSNI) RNFL thicknesses were measured at 3.45mm around the optic nerve head of one eye. Neuropathy disability score (NDS) was used to assess the severity of DPN on a 0 to 10 scale. Participants were divided into three age-matched groups representing mild (NDS=3-5), moderate (NDS=6-8) and severe (NDS=9-10) neuropathy. Two regression models were fitted for statistical analysis: 1) NDS scores as co-variate for global and quadrant RNFL thicknesses, 2) NDS groups as a factor for global RNFL thickness only. Results Mean (SD) RNFL thickness (µm) was 103(9) for mild neuropathy (n=34), 101(10) for moderate neuropathy (n=16) and 95(13) in the group with severe neuropathy (n=11). Global RNFL thickness and NDS scores were statistically significantly related (b=-1.20, p=0.048). When neuropathy was assessed across groups, a trend of thinner mean RNFL thickness was observed with increasing severity of neuropathy; however, this result was not statistically significant (F=2.86, p=0.065). TSNI quadrant analysis showed that mean RNFL thickness reduction in the inferior quadrant was 2.55 µm per 1 unit increase in NDS score (p=0.005). However, the regression coefficients were not statistically significant for RNFL thickness in the superior (b=-1.0, p=0.271), temporal (b=-0.90, p=0.238) and nasal (b=-0.99, p=0.205) quadrants. Conclusions RNFL thickness was reduced with increasing severity of DPN and the effect was most evident in the inferior quadrant. Measuring RNFL thickness using OCT may prove to be a useful, non-invasive technique for identifying severity of DPN and may also provide additional insight into common mechanisms for peripheral neuropathy and RNFL damage.
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The global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008 rocked local, regional, and state economies throughout the world. Several intermediate outcomes of the GFC have been well documented in the literature including loss of jobs and reduced income. Relatively little research has, however, examined the impacts of the GFC on individual level travel behaviour change. To address this shortcoming, HABITAT panel data were employed to estimate a multinomial logit model to examine mode switching behaviour between 2007 (pre-GFC) and 2009 (post-GFC) of a baby boomers cohort in Brisbane, Australia—a city within a developed country that has been on many metrics the least affected by the GFC. In addition, a Poisson regression model was estimated to model the number of trips made by individuals in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The South East Queensland Travel Survey datasets were used to develop this model. Four linear regression models were estimated to assess the effects of the GFC on time allocated to travel during a day: one for each of the three travel modes including public transport, active transport, less environmentally friendly transport; and an overall travel time model irrespective of mode. The results reveal that individuals were more likely to switch to public transport who lost their job or whose income reduced between 2007 and 2009. Individuals also made significantly fewer trips in 2008 and 2009 compared to 2007. Individuals spent significantly less time using less environmentally friendly transport but more time using public transport in 2009. Baby boomers switched to more environmentally friendly travel modes during the GFC.
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This study investigated the relative contribution of individual, workplace, psychosocial and physiological features associated with neck pain in female office workers towards developing appropriate intervention programs. Workers without disability (Neck Disability Index (NDI) score≤8, n=33); workers with neck pain and disability (NDI≥9/100, n=52) and 22 controls (women who did not work and without neck pain) participated in this study. Two logistic regression models were constructed to test the association between various measures in (1) workers with and without disability, and (2) workers without disability and controls. Measures included those found to be significantly associated with higher NDI in our previous studies: psychosocial domains; individual factors; task demands; quantitative sensory measures and measures of motor function. In the final model, higher score on negative affectivity scale (OR=4.47), greater activity in the neck flexors during cranio-cervical flexion (OR=1.44), cold hyperalgesia (OR=1.27) and longer duration of symptoms (OR=1.19) remained significantly associated with neck pain in workers. Workers without disability and controls could only be differentiated by greater muscle activity in the cervical flexors and extensors during a typing task. No psychosocial domains remained in either regression model. These results suggest that impairments in the sensory and motor system should be considered in any assessment of the office worker with neck pain and may have stronger influences on the presenting symptoms than workplace and psychosocial features.
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OBJECTIVE Although the survival outcomes among women diagnosed with endometrial cancer are very favorable, little is known about the long-term impact of their cancer experience. This study identifies the extent of positive and negative impacts of cancer and factors associated with this, amongst long-term survivors of endometrial cancer. METHODS Australian women diagnosed with endometrial cancer (N=632) were sent questionnaires at the time of diagnosis and 3-5 years later. Hierarchical multiple regression models were used to examine whether a range of variables at diagnosis/treatment predicted subsequent scores on the Impact of Cancer Scale, which examines positive (e.g. health awareness) and negative (e.g. appearance concerns) impacts amongst cancer survivors. RESULTS Overall, women had a higher mean score for the positive than negative impact scales (M=3.5 versus M=2.5, respectively). An intermediate grade of endometrial cancer, a prior diagnosis of cancer and lower levels of education were significant, but weak, predictors of higher scores on the positive impact scale. Higher scores on the negative impact scale were predicted by a higher grade of cancer, poor physical and mental health, a younger age, being single or having lower levels of education. CONCLUSIONS The study demonstrates that factors that predict positive impact in cancer survivors differ to those that predict negative impact, suggesting that interventions to optimize cancer survivors' quality of life will need to be multi-dimensional, and this supports the need for tailored intervention.
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To better understand how freshwater ecosystems respond to changes in catchment land-use, it is important to develop measures of ecological health that include aspects of both ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated measures of nutrient processes as potential indicators of stream ecosystem health across a land-use gradient from relatively undisturbed to highly modified. A total of seven indicators (potential denitrification; an index of denitrification potential relative to sediment organic matter; benthic algal growth on artificial substrates amended with (a) N only, (b) P only, and (c) N and P; and δ15N of aquatic plants and benthic sediment) were measured at 53 streams in southeast Queensland, Australia. The indicators were evaluated by their response to a defined gradient of agricultural land-use disturbance as well as practical aspects of using the indicators as part of a monitoring program. Regression models based on descriptors of the disturbance gradient explained a large proportion of the variation in six of the seven indicators. Denitrification index, algal growth in N amended substrate, and δ15N of aquatic plants demonstrated the best regression. However, the δ15N value of benthic sediment was found to be the best indicator overall for incorporation into a monitoring program, as samples were relatively easy to collect and process, and were successfully collected at more than 90% of the study sites.
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Food neophobia is a highly heritable trait characterized by the rejection of foods that are novel or unknown and potentially limits dietary variety, with lower intake and preference particularly for fruits and vegetables. Understanding non-genetic (environmental) factors that may influence the expression of food neophobia is essential to improving children’s consumption of fruits and vegetables and encouraging the adoption of healthier diets. The aim of this study was to examine whether maternal infant feeding beliefs (at four months) were associated with the expression of food neophobia in toddlers and whether controlling feeding practices mediated this relationship. Participants were 244 first-time mothers (M = 30.4, SD = 5.1 years) allocated to the control group of the NOURISH randomized controlled trial. The relationships between infant feeding beliefs (Infant Feeding Questionnaire) at four months and controlling child feeding practices (Child Feeding Questionnaire) and food neophobia (Child Food Neophobia Scale) at 24 months were tested using correlational and multiple linear regression models (adjusted for significant covariates). Higher maternal Concern about infant under-eating and becoming underweight at four months was associated with higher child food neophobia at two years. Similarly, lower Awareness of infant hunger and satiety cues was associated with higher child food neophobia. Both associations were significantly mediated by mothers’ use of Pressure to eat. Intervening early to promote positive feeding practices to mothers may help reduce the use of controlling practices as children develop. Further research that can further elucidate the bi-directional nature of the mother-child feeding relationship is still required.
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Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and occupational exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are the major proven risk factors for human head and neck squamous-cell cancer (HNSCC). Major research focus on gene-environment interactions concerning HNSCC has been on genes encoding enzymes of metabolism for tobacco smoke constituents and repair enzymes. To investigate the role of genetically determined individual predispositions in enzymes of xenobiotic metabolism and in repair enzymes under the exogenous risk factor tobacco smoke in the carcinogenesis of HNSCC, we conducted a case-control study on 312 cases and 300 noncancer controls. We focused on the impact of 22 sequence variations in CYP1A1, CYP1B1, CYP2E1, ERCC2/XPD, GSTM1, GSTP1, GSTT1, NAT2, NQO1, and XRCC1. To assess relevant main and interactive effects of polymorphic genes on the susceptibility to HNSCC we used statistical models such as logic regression and a Bayesian version of logic regression. In subgroup analysis of nonsmokers, main effects in ERCC2 (Lys751Gln) C/C genotype and combined ERCC2 (Arg156Arg) C/A and A/A genotypes were predominant. When stratifying for smokers, the data revealed main effects on combined CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) C/G and G/G genotypes, followed by CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) G/G genotype and CYP2E1 (-70G>T) G/T genotype. When fitting logistic regression models including relevant main effects and interactions in smokers, we found relevant associations of CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) C/G genotype and CYP2E1 (-70G>T) G/T genotype (OR, 10.84; 95% CI, 1.64-71.53) as well as CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) G/G genotype and GSTM1 null/null genotype (OR, 11.79; 95% CI, 2.18-63.77) with HNSCC. The findings underline the relevance of genotypes of polymorphic CYP1B1 combined with exposures to tobacco smoke.
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In recent years, the beauty leaf plant (Calophyllum Inophyllum) is being considered as a potential 2nd generation biodiesel source due to high seed oil content, high fruit production rate, simple cultivation and ability to grow in a wide range of climate conditions. However, however, due to the high free fatty acid (FFA) content in this oil, the potential of this biodiesel feedstock is still unrealized, and little research has been undertaken on it. In this study, transesterification of beauty leaf oil to produce biodiesel has been investigated. A two-step biodiesel conversion method consisting of acid catalysed pre-esterification and alkali catalysed transesterification has been utilized. The three main factors that drive the biodiesel (fatty acid methyl ester (FAME)) conversion from vegetable oil (triglycerides) were studied using response surface methodology (RSM) based on a Box-Behnken experimental design. The factors considered in this study were catalyst concentration, methanol to oil molar ratio and reaction temperature. Linear and full quadratic regression models were developed to predict FFA and FAME concentration and to optimize the reaction conditions. The significance of these factors and their interaction in both stages was determined using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The reaction conditions for the largest reduction in FFA concentration for acid catalysed pre-esterification was 30:1 methanol to oil molar ratio, 10% (w/w) sulfuric acid catalyst loading and 75 °C reaction temperature. In the alkali catalysed transesterification process 7.5:1 methanol to oil molar ratio, 1% (w/w) sodium methoxide catalyst loading and 55 °C reaction temperature were found to result in the highest FAME conversion. The good agreement between model outputs and experimental results demonstrated that this methodology may be useful for industrial process optimization for biodiesel production from beauty leaf oil and possibly other industrial processes as well.