From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Computational fluid dynamics evaluation of liquid food thermal process in a brick shaped package

Food processes must ensure safety and high-quality products for a growing demand consumer creating the need for better knowledge of its unit operations. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been widely used for better understanding the food thermal processes, and it is one of the safest and most frequently used methods for food preservation. However, there is no single study in the literature describing thermal process of liquid foods in a brick shaped package. The present study evaluated such process and the influence of its orientation on the process lethality. It demonstrated the potential of using CFD to evaluate thermal processes of liquid foods and the importance of rheological characterization and convection in thermal processing of liquid foods. It also showed that packaging orientation does not result in different sterilization values during thermal process of the evaluated fluids in the brick shaped package.

The association of faculty's teaching philosophy and teaching behaviour, and critical thinking and self- direction in learning

The intent in this study was to investigate in what ways teachers· beliefs about education and teaching are expressed in the specific teaching behaviours they employ, and whether teaching behaviours, as perceived by their students, are correlated with students· critical thinking and self-directed learning. To this end the relationships studied were: among faCUlty members· philosophy of teaching, locus of control orientation, psychological type, and observed teaching behaviour; and among students· psychological type, perceptions of teaching behaviour, self-directed learning readiness, and critical thinking. The overall purpose of the study was to investigate whether the implicit goals of higher education, critical thinking and self-direction, were actually accounted for in the university classroom. The research was set within the context of path-goal theory, adapted from the leadership literature. Within this framework, Mezirow·s work on transformative learning, including the influences of Habermas· writings, was integrated to develop a theoretical perspective upon which to base the research methodology. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies were incorporated. Four faCUlty and a total of 142 students participated in the study. Philosophy of teaching was described through faCUlty interviews and completion of a repertory grid. Faculty completed a descriptive locus of control scale, and a psychological type test. Observations of their teaching behaviour were conducted. Students completed a Teaching Behaviour Assessment Scale, the Self-Directed Learning Readiness Scale, a psychological type test, and the Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal. A small sample of students were interviewed. Follow-up discussions with faculty were used to validate the interview, observation, teaching behaviour, and repertory grid data. Results indicated that some discrepancies existed between faculty's espoused philosophy of teaching and their observed teaching behaviour. Instructors' teaching behaviour, however, was a function of their personal theory of practice. Relationships were found between perceived teaching behaviour and students· self-directed learning and critical thinking, but these varied across situations, as would be predicted from path-goal theory. Psychological type of students and instructor also accounted for some of the variability in the relationships studied. Student psychological type could be shown as a partial predictor of self-directed learning readiness. The results were discussed in terms of theory development and implications for further research and practice.

A computational fluid dynamic study on the filtering mechanics in suspension feeding marine invertebrates

Les suspensivores ont la tâche importante de séparer les particules de l'eau. Bien qu'une grande gamme de morphologies existe pour les structures d'alimentation, elles sont pratiquement toutes constituées de rangées de cylindres qui interagissent avec leur environnement fluide. Le mécanisme de capture des particules utilisé dépend des contraintes morphologiques, des besoins énergétiques et des conditions d'écoulement. Comme nos objectifs étaient de comprendre ces relations, nous avons eu recours à des études de comparaison pour interpréter les tendances en nature et pour comprendre les conditions qui provoquent de nouveaux fonctionnements. Nous avons utilisé la dynamique des fluides numérique (computational fluid dynamics, CFD) pour créer des expériences contrôlées et pour simplifier les analyses. Notre première étude démontre que les coûts énergétiques associés au pompage dans les espaces petits sont élevés. De plus, le CFD suggère que les fentes branchiales des ptérobranches sont des structures rudimentaires, d'un ancêtre plus grande. Ce dernier point confirme l'hypothèse qu'un ver se nourrit par filtration tel que l'ancêtre des deuterostomes. Notre deuxième étude détermine la gamme du nombre de Reynolds number critique où la performance d'un filtre de balane change. Quand le Re est très bas, les différences morphologiques n'ont pas un grand effet sur le fonctionnement. Cependant, une pagaie devient une passoire lorsque le Re se trouve entre 1 et 3,5. Le CFD s’est dévoilé être un outil très utile qui a permis d’obtenir des détails sur les microfluides. Ces études montrent comment la morphologie et les dynamiques des fluides interagissent avec la mécanisme de capture ou de structures utilisées, ainsi que comment des petits changements de taille, de forme, ou de vitesse d'écoulement peuvent conduire à un nouveau fonctionnement.

Research and teaching: a holy or an unholy alliance?

Much of the self-image of the Western university hangs on the idea that research and teaching are intimately connected. The central axiom here is that research and teaching are mutually supportive of each other. An institution lacking such a set of relationships between research and teaching falls short of what it means to be a university. This set of beliefs raises certain questions: Is it the case that the presence of such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is a necessary condition of the fulfilment of the idea of the university? (A conceptual question). And is it true that, in practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching characterises universities? (An empirical question). In my talk, I want to explore these matters in a critical vein. I shall suggest that: a) In practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is in jeopardy. Far from supporting each other, very often research and teaching contend against each other. Research and teaching are becoming two separate ideologies, with their own interest structures. b) Historically, the supposed tight link between research and teaching is both of recent origin and far from universally achieved in universities. Institutional separateness between research and teaching is and has been evident, both across institutions and even across departments in the same institution. c) Conceptually, research and teaching are different activities: each is complex and neither is reducible to the other. In theory, therefore, research and teaching may be said to constitute a holy alliance but in practice, we see more of an unholy alliance. If, then, in an ideal world, a positive relationship between research and teaching is still a worthwhile goal, how might it be construed and worked for? Seeing research and teaching as two discrete and unified sets of activity is now inadequate. Much better is a construal of research and teaching as themselves complexes, as intermingling pools of activity helping to form the liquid university that is emerging today. On this view, research and teaching are fluid spaces, ever on the move, taking up new shapes, and themselves dividing and reforming, as the university reworks its own destiny in modern society. On such a perspective, working out a productive relationship between research and teaching is a complex project. This is an alliance that is neither holy nor unholy. It is an uneasy alliance, with temporary accommodations and continuous new possibilities

Viscous Flow and Fluid Dynamics

Exam questions and solutions for a third year maths course. Diagrams for the questions are all together in the support.zip file, as .eps files

Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

LDA or GGA? A combined experimental inelastic neutron scattering and ab initio lattice dynamics study of alkali metal hydrides

In a previous work, we carried out inelastic neutron scattering (INS) spectroscopy experiments and preliminary first principles calculations on alkali metal hydrides. The complete series of alkali metal hydrides, LiH, NaH, KH, RbH and CsH was measured in the high-resolution TOSCA INS spectrometer at ISIS. Here, we present the results of ab initio electronic structure calculations of the properties of the alkali metal hydrides using both the local density approximation (LDA) and the generalized gradient approximation (GGA), using the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE) parameterization. Properties calculated were lattice parameters, bulk moduli, dielectric constants, effective charges, electronic densities and inelastic neutron scattering (INS) spectra. We took advantage of the currently available computer power to use full lattice dynamics theory to calculate thermodynamic properties for these materials. For the alkali metal hydrides (LiH, NaH, KH, RbH and CsH) using lattice dynamics, we found that the INS spectra calculated using LDA agreed better with the experimental data than the spectra calculated using GGA. Both zero-point effects and thermal contributions to free energies had an important effect on INS and several thermodynamic properties.

Selectivity of bis(calix[4]diquinone) ionophores towards metal ions in solvent dimethylsulfoxide: a molecular mechanics and molecular dynamics study

Molecular modelling studies have been carried out on two bis(calix[4]diqu(inone) ionophores, each created from two (calix[4]diquinone)arenes bridged at their bottom rims via alkyl chains (CH2)(n), 1: n = 3, 2; n = 4, in order to understand the reported selectivity of these ligands towards different sized metal ions such as Na+, K+, Rb+, and Cs+ in dmso solution. Conformational. analyses have been carried out which show that in the lowest energy conformations of the two macrocycles, the individual calix[4]diquinones exhibit a combination of partial cone, 1,3-alternate and cone conformations. The interactions of these alkali metals with the macrocycles have been studied in the gas phase and in a periodic box of solvent dmso by molecular mechanics and molecular dynamics calculations. Molecular mechanics calculations have been carried out on the mode of entry of the ions into the macrocycles and suggest that this is likely to occur from the side of the central cavity, rather than through the main axis of the calix[4]diquinones. There are energy barriers of ca. 19 kcal mol(-1) for this entry path in the gas phase, but in solution no energy barrier is found. Molecular dynamics simulations show that in both 1 and 2, though particularly in the latter macrocycle, one or two solvent molecules are bonded to the metal throughout the course of the simulation, often to the exclusion, of one or more of the ether oxygen atoms. By contrast the carbonyl oxygen atoms remain bonded to the metal atoms throughout with bond lengths that remain significantly less than those to the ether oxygen atoms. Free energy perturbation studies have been carried out in dmso and indicate that for 1, the selectivity follows the order Rb+ approximate to K+ > Cs+ >> Na+, which is partially in agreement with the experimental results. The energy differences are small and indeed the ratio between stability constants found for Cs+ and K+ complexes is only 0.60, showing that 1 has only a slight preference for K+. For the larger receptor 2, which is better suited to metal complexation, the binding affinity follows the pattern Cs+ >> Rb+ >> K+ >> Na+, with energy differences of 5.75, 2.61, 2.78 kcal mol(-1) which is perfectly consistent with experimental results.

Mg/Ca partitioning between aqueous solution and aragonite mineral: a molecular dynamics study

We have calculated the concentrations of Mg in the bulk and surfaces of aragonite CaCO3 in equilibrium with aqueous solution, based on molecular dynamics simulations and grand-canonical statistical mechanics. Mg is incorporated in the surfaces, in particular in the (001) terraces, rather than in the bulk of aragonite particles. However, the total Mg content in the bulk and surface of aragonite particles was found to be too small to account for the measured Mg/Ca ratios in corals. We therefore argue that most Mg in corals is either highly metastable in the aragonite lattice, or is located outside the aragonite phase of the coral skeleton, and we discuss the implications of this finding for Mg/Ca paleothermometry.

Scanning tunneling microscopy and molecular dynamics study of the Li2TiO3(001) surface

We have investigated the (001) surface structure of lithium titanate (Li2TiO3) using auger electron spectroscopy (AES), low-energy electron diffraction (LEED), and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). Li2TiO3 is a potential fusion reactor blanket material. After annealing at 1200 K, LEED demonstrated that the Li2TiO3(001) surface was well ordered and not reconstructed. STM imaging showed that terraces are separated in height by about 0.3 nm suggesting a single termination layer. Moreover, hexagonal patterns with a periodicity of ∼0.4 nm are observed. On the basis of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, these are interpreted as a dynamic arrangement of Li atoms.

Structure and magnetic properties of polydisperse ferrofluids: a molecular dynamics study

We study by Langevin molecular dynamics simulations systematically the influence of polydispersity in the particle size, and subsequently in the dipole moment, on the physical properties of ferrofluids. The polydispersity is in a first approximation modeled by a bidisperse system that consists of small and large particles at different ratios of their volume fractions. In the first part of our investigations the total volume fraction of the system is fixed, and the volume fraction phi(L) of the large particles is varied. The initial susceptibility chi and magnetization curve of the systems show a strong dependence on the value of phi(L). With the increase of phi(L), the magnetization M of the system has a much faster increment at weak fields, and thus leads to a larger chi. We performed a cluster analysis that indicates that this is due to the aggregation of the large particles in the systems. The average size of these clusters increases with increasing phi(L). In the second part of our investigations, we fixed the volume fraction of the large particles, and increased the volume fraction phi(S) of the small particles in order to study their influence on the chain formation of the large ones. We found that the average aggregate size formed by large particles decreases when phi(S) is increased, demonstrating a significant effect of the small particles on the structural properties of the system. A topological analysis of the structure reveals that the majority of the small particles remain nonaggregated. Only a small number of them are attracted to the ends of the chains formed by large particles.