The use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model for selecting the fire origin room

Over the last three decades, the fire safety codes have been changing from a prescriptive approach to a performance-based one. Some countries, such as the USA, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia and the UK, are in an advanced stage of development and implementation of the performance-based codes. However, there are some difficulties in this process. Most of them are due to the uncertainties associated with fire design. For instance, one of the questions that need to be answered is how to select the most probable fire origin room (FOR)? On the other hand, to know where the FOR is located is also an important aspect in terms of forensic issues. Given that, to address this question is an important step for the establishment of fire designs (i.e., pre-fire phases) and also for fire investigations (i.e., post-fire phases). This paper proposes a methodology for selecting the FOR through the use of a mathematical multicriteria decision-making model: the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The proposed method is then applied to a hypothetical study case. The results are presented and discussed in this paper.

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Evaluating the SEVIRI Fire Thermal Anomaly Detection Algorithm across the Central African Republic Using the MODIS Active Fire Product

Satellite-based remote sensing of active fires is the only practical way to consistently and continuously monitor diurnal fluctuations in biomass burning from regional, to continental, to global scales. Failure to understand, quantify, and communicate the performance of an active fire detection algorithm, however, can lead to improper interpretations of the spatiotemporal distribution of biomass burning, and flawed estimates of fuel consumption and trace gas and aerosol emissions. This work evaluates the performance of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) Fire Thermal Anomaly (FTA) detection algorithm using seven months of active fire pixels detected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) across the Central African Republic (CAR). Results indicate that the omission rate of the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm relative to MODIS varies spatially across the CAR, ranging from 25% in the south to 74% in the east. In the absence of confounding artifacts such as sunglint, uncertainties in the background thermal characterization, and cloud cover, the regional variation in SEVIRI's omission rate can be attributed to a coupling between SEVIRI's low spatial resolution detection bias (i.e., the inability to detect fires below a certain size and intensity) and a strong geographic gradient in active fire characteristics across the CAR. SEVIRI's commission rate relative to MODIS increases from 9% when evaluated near MODIS nadir to 53% near the MODIS scene edges, indicating that SEVIRI errors of commission at the MODIS scene edges may not be false alarms but rather true fires that MODIS failed to detect as a result of larger pixel sizes at extreme MODIS scan angles. Results from this work are expected to facilitate (i) future improvements to the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm; (ii) the assimilation of the SEVIRI and MODIS active fire products; and (iii) the potential inclusion of SEVIRI into a network of geostationary sensors designed to achieve global diurnal active fire monitoring.

Attitudes to community relations in Northern Ireland: signs of optimisim in the post-cease fire period?

This article uses attitudinal data to explore Catholic and Protestant perspectives on community relations and equality since the paramilitary cease fires in 1994. Although attitudes tend to fluctuate with the‘headline grabbing'events of the day, the article argues that there are signs that some fundamental changes have taken place in the post cease fire period. Of particular importance in this regard is the positive response recorded by the Catholic community towards government measures to tackle disadvantage and inequality. Equally significant is the protestant response to many of these measures which is often one of ambivalence rather than derision. In so far as the data appear to challenge the‘zero-sum'game that traditionally underpins relations between the two communities in Northern Ireland, they provide some grounds for optimism. Yet such optimism is tempered somewhat by the seeds of discontent which are manifest within the protestant community, particularly around issues of equality in employment and cultural traditions. Despite the more positive assessment of community relations and equality in 2002, it is argued that further monitoring will be required to determine the long-term effects of policy reform on relationships between the two communit

Bradykinins and their precursor Cdnas from the skin of the Fire-Bellied Toad (Bombina orientalis)

Bradykinin and (Thr6)-bradykinin have been identified in the defensive skin secretion of the fire-bellied toad, Bombina orientalis. The homologous cDNAs for both peptides were cloned from a skin library using a 3'- and 5'-RACE strategy. Kininogen-1 (BOK-1) contained an open-reading frame of 167 amino acid residues encoding four repeats of bradykinin, and kininogen-2 (BOK-2) contained an open-reading frame of 161 amino acid residues encoding two repeats of (Thr6)-bradykinin. Alignment of both precursor nucleotide and amino acid sequences revealed a high degree of structural similarity. These amphibian skin kininogens/preprobradykinins are not biologically analogous to mammalian kininogens.

Identification and molecular cloning of novel trypsin inhibitors from the dermal venom of the Oriental fire-bellied toad (Bombina orientalis) and the European yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata).

The structural diversity of polypeptides in amphibian skin secretion probably reflects different roles in dermal regulation or in defense against predators. Here we report the structures of two novel trypsin inhibitor analogs, BOTI and BVTI, from the dermal venom of the toads, Bombina orientalis and Bombina variegata. Cloning of their respective precursors was achieved from lyophilized venom cDNA libraries for the first time. Amino acid alignment revealed that both deduced peptides, consisting of 60 amino acid residues, including 10 cysteines and the reactive center motif, -CDKKC-, can be affirmed as structural homologs of the trypsin inhibitor from Bombina bombina skin.

Sandstone response to salt weathering following simulated fire damage: a comparison of furnace heating and fire.

Fire has long been recognized as an agent of rock weathering. Our understanding of the impact of fire on stone comes either from early anecdotal evidence, or from more recent laboratory simulation studies, using furnaces to simulate the effects of fire. This paper suggests that knowledge derived from simulated heating experiments is based on the preconceptions of the experiment designer – when using a furnace to simulate fire, the operator decides on the maximum temperature and the duration of the experiment. These are key factors in determining the response of the stone to fire, and if these are removed from realworld observations then knowledge based on these simulations must be questioned. To explore the differences between heating sandstone in a furnace and a real fire, sample blocks of Peakmoor Sandstone were subjected to different stress histories in combination (lime rendering and removal, furnace heating or fire, frost and salt weathering). Block response to furnace heating and fire is discussed, with emphasis placed on the non-uniformity of the fire and of block response to fire in contrast to the uniform response to surface heating in a furnace. Subsequent response to salt weathering (by a 10% solution of sodium chloride and magnesium sulphate) was then monitored by weight loss. Blocks that had experienced fire showed a more unpredictable response to salt weathering than those that had undergone furnace heating – spalling of corners and rapid catastrophic weight loss were evidenced in blocks that had been subjected to fire, after periods of relative quiescence. An important physical side-effect of the fire was soot accumulation, which created a waxy, relatively impermeable layer on some blocks. This layer repelled water and hindered salt ingress, but eventually detached when salt, able to enter the substrate through more permeable areas, concentrated and crystallized behind it, resulting in rapid weight loss and accelerated decay. Copyright ©2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.