Endemic malaria: an 'indoor' disease in northern Europe

Background: Endemic northern malaria reached 68°N latitude in Europe during the 19th century, where the summer mean temperature only irregularly exceeded 16°C, the lower limit needed for sporogony of Plasmodium vivax. Because of the available historical material and little use of quinine, Finland was suitable for an analysis of endemic malaria and temperature. Methods: Annual malaria death frequencies during 1800–1870 extracted from parish records were analysed against long-term temperature records in Finland, Russia and Sweden. Supporting data from 1750–1799 were used in the interpretation of the results. The life cycle and behaviour of the anopheline mosquitoes were interpreted according to the literature. Results: Malaria frequencies correlated strongly with the mean temperature of June and July of the preceding summer, corresponding to larval development of the vector. Hatching of imagoes peaks in the middle of August, when the temperature most years is too low for the sporogony of Plasmodium. After mating some of the females hibernate in human dwellings. If the female gets gametocytes from infective humans, the development of Plasmodium can only continue indoors, in heated buildings. Conclusion: Northern malaria existed in a cold climate by means of summer dormancy of hypnozoites in humans and indoor transmission of sporozoites throughout the winter by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climatic conditions did not affect this relationship. The epidemics, however, were regulated by the population size of the mosquitoes which, in turn, ultimately was controlled by the temperatures of the preceding summer.

Molecular and serological studies on the recent seal virus epizootics in Europe and Siberia

The virus epizootics which occurred in seals in both Europe and Siberia during 1987/1988 were caused by two different morbillivirus, referred to as phocid distemper virus (PDV) 1 and 2, respectively. Molecular and serological studies have shown that the European virus is quite distinct from canine distemper virus (CDV), its closest relative in the morbillivirus group. Analysis of tissues obtained from infected seals from a wide geographical distrubution over Northern Europe showed that the infectious agent (PDV 1) was identical in all cases. Nucleotide sequence analysis of one of the virus genes suggested that this virus has evolved away from CDV over a long time period and is most probably an enzootic virus of marine mammals. In contrast, the virus (PDV 2) which caused the deaths of many Siberian seals was indistinguishable, both serologically and at the molecular level, from CDV and must have originated from a land source.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Jatropha cultivation in southern India: assessing farmers' experiences

Together with 106 farmers who started growing Jatropha (Jatropha curcas L.) in 20042006, this research sought to increase the knowledge around the real-life experience of Jatropha farming in the southern India states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Launched as an alternative for diesel in India, Jatropha has been promoted as a non-edible plant that could grow on poor soils, yield oil-rich seeds for production of bio-diesel, and not compete directly with food production. Through interviews with the farmers, information was gathered regarding their socio-economic situation, the implementation and performance of their Jatropha plantations, and their reasons for continuing or discontinuing Jatropha cultivation. Results reveal that 82% of the farmers had substituted former cropland for their Jatropha cultivation. By 2010, 85% (n = 90) of the farmers who cultivated Jatropha in 2004 had stopped. Cultivating the crop did not give the economic returns the farmers anticipated, mainly due to a lack of information about the crop and its maintenance during cultivation and due to water scarcity. A majority of the farmers irrigated and applied fertilizer, and even pesticides. Many problems experienced by the farmers were due to limited knowledge about cultivating Jatropha caused by poor planning and implementation of the national Jatropha program. Extension services, subsidies, and other support were not provided as promised. The farmers who continued cultivation had means of income other than Jatropha and held hopes of a future Jatropha market. The lack of market structures, such as purchase agreements and buyers, as well as a low retail price for the seeds, were frequently stated as barriers to Jatropha cultivation. For Jatropha biodiesel to perform well, efforts are needed to improve yield levels and stability through genetic improvements and drought tolerance, as well as agriculture extension services to support adoption of the crop. Government programs will -probably be more effective if implementing biodiesel production is conjoined with stimulating the demand for Jatropha biodiesel. To avoid food-biofuel competition, additional measures may be needed such as land-use restrictions for Jatropha producers and taxes on biofuels or biofuel feedstocks to improve the competitiveness of the food sector compared to the bioenergy sector. (c) 2012 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Farmers' vulnerability to climate variability in Dimapur district of Nagaland, India

Certain parts of the State of Nagaland situated in the northeastern region of India have been experiencing rainfall deficit over the past few years leading to severe drought-like conditions, which is likely to be aggravated under a climate change scenario. The state has already incurred considerable losses in the agricultural sector. Regional vulnerability assessments need to be carried out in order to help policy makers and planners formulate and implement effective drought management strategies. The present study uses an 'index-based approach' to quantify the climate variability-induced vulnerability of farmers in five villages of Dimapur district, Nagaland. Indicators, which are reflective of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the farmers to drought, were quantified on the basis of primary data generated through household surveys and participatory rural appraisal supplemented by secondary data in order to calculate a composite vulnerability index. The composite vulnerability index of village New Showba was found to be the least, while Zutovi, the highest. The overall results reveal that biophysical characteristics contribute the most to overall vulnerability. Some potential adaptation strategies were also identified based on observations and discussions with the villagers.

Comment peut-on encore philosopher après la Révélation?

Résumé: Le défi vital que la Révélation pose à la philosophie légitime la question de leurs rapports possibles. La raison considère d’abord l’absence de rapport en distinguant radicalement ce qui relève de chacune. Mais l’élan fondamental orienté vers le divin qui anime cette faculté, la rend naturellement théologique. Pour éviter le scepticisme, incompatible avec son dynamisme naturel, la raison finit par dévaloriser la Révélation. Cette attitude signifie l’unicité de l’autorité théologique de la raison, alors naturellement divine. Développée à partir du XVIIIème siècle, elle culmine avec l’homme démiurgique des XIX et XXème siècles. Mais, ne pouvant justifier l’universalité de ses élaborations idéologiques, la raison hésite entre le scepticisme ou le totalitarisme, deux renoncements à l’exercice philosophique. L’acceptation du soutien lumineux de la Révélation, qui suppose l’humble reconnaissance des limites de la raison, ne nuit pas à cet exercice, mais le féconde, et, seule, en permet l’épanouissement. Eclairée par la Révélation, la philosophie contribue au bonheur suprême des hommes, qui demeure son intention fondamentale.

La fiesta, socialización y prevención del conflicto : Castilla, siglos XIV y XV

Integran este número de la revista ponencias presentadas en Studia Hispanica Medievalia VIII: Actas de las IX Jornadas Internacionales de Literatura Española Medieval, 2008, y de Homenaje al Quinto Centenario de Amadis de Gaula.

The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe

Revised: 2006-07

Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Encouraging them to come to us: changing the way that information is made available to farmers

Recommendations for changes to service provision and fisheries policy in support of poverty alleviation emerged recently in India from a process know as facilitated advocacy (see Case Study SI 2) that helped to negotiate and support a role for poor people and their service providers, to contribute to changes in services and policies. Two of the key recommendations to emerge from farmers and fishers, which were prioritized by Fisheries Departments, were to change the way that information is made available and to simplify procedures for accessing government schemes and bank loans. This case which identifies the origin of these recommendations to change the way that information is made available, shows how different models of the concept have emerged, and follows the development of the One-stop Aqua Shops (OAS) in the eastern Indian states of Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, that represent a new and vital tier in communications in aquaculture. (12 p.)