Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

The Southern Ocean and South Pacific Region

The Region comprises three sub-regions (FAO Statistical Areas) with very different characteristics. The South Pacific includes the vast and virtually unpopulated Southern Ocean surrounding the Antarctic. It has the world’s largest fisheries off Peru and Chile and some of the world’s best managed fisheries in Australia and New Zealand. The Region has over 27% of the world’s ocean area and over 98% of the Region’s total area of 91 million km2 is ‘open ocean’. The Region contains less than 5% of the global continental shelf area and only a fraction of this area is covered by three large marine ecosystems (the New Zealand Shelf, the Humboldt Current and the Antarctic large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is the world’s largest upwelling which provides nutrients for the world’s largest fisheries. The Region also has a high number of seamounts. The marine capture fisheries of the Region produce over 13 million tons annually and an expanding aquaculture industry produces over 1.5 million tons. Peru’s anchoveta fishery provides about half the world’s supply of fish meal and oil, key ingredients of animal and fish feeds. El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSOs), known more generally as El Niños, can substantially change the species composition of the key small pelagic catches (anchovy, sardine, horse mackerel and jack mackerel) causing production to fluctuate from about 4-8 million tons. Partly due to the lack of upwelling and shelf areas, fisheries production in the Southern Ocean and Area 81 is relatively small but supports economically important commercial and recreational fisheries and aquaculture in New Zealand and in New South Wales (Australia). Krill remains a major underexploited resource, but is also a keystone species in the Antarctic food web. The Region is home to numerous endangered species of whales, seals and seabirds and has a high number of seamounts, vulnerable ecosystems fished for high-value species such as orange roughy.

The Southern Ocean and South Pacific Region

The Region comprises three sub-regions (FAO Statistical Areas) with very different characteristics. The South Pacific includes the vast and virtually unpopulated Southern Ocean surrounding the Antarctic. It has the world’s largest fisheries off Peru and Chile and some of the world’s best managed fisheries in Australia and New Zealand. The Region has over 27% of the world’s ocean area and over 98% of the Region’s total area of 91 million km2 is ‘open ocean’. The Region contains less than 5% of the global continental shelf area and only a fraction of this area is covered by three large marine ecosystems (the New Zealand Shelf, the Humboldt Current and the Antarctic large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is the world’s largest upwelling which provides nutrients for the world’s largest fisheries. The Region also has a high number of seamounts. The marine capture fisheries of the Region produce over 13 million tons annually and an expanding aquaculture industry produces over 1.5 million tons. Peru’s anchoveta fishery provides about half the world’s supply of fish meal and oil, key ingredients of animal and fish feeds. El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSOs), known more generally as El Niños, can substantially change the species composition of the key small pelagic catches (anchovy, sardine, horse mackerel and jack mackerel) causing production to fluctuate from about 4-8 million tons. Partly due to the lack of upwelling and shelf areas, fisheries production in the Southern Ocean and Area 81 is relatively small but supports economically important commercial and recreational fisheries and aquaculture in New Zealand and in New South Wales (Australia). Krill remains a major underexploited resource, but is also a keystone species in the Antarctic food web. The Region is home to numerous endangered species of whales, seals and seabirds and has a high number of seamounts, vulnerable ecosystems fished for high-value species such as orange roughy.

Assessing the Legacy of Red Mud Pollution in a Shallow Freshwater Lake: Arsenic Accumulation and Speciation in Macrophytes

Little is known about long-term ecological responses in lakes following red mud pollution. Among red mud contaminants, arsenic (As) is of considerable concern. Determination of the species of As accumulated in aquatic organisms provides important information about the biogeochemical cycling of the element and transfer through the aquatic food-web to higher organisms. We used coupled ion chromatography and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to assess As speciation in tissues of five macrophyte taxa in Kinghorn Loch, UK, 30 years following the diversion of red mud pollution from the lake. Toxic inorganic As was the dominant species in the studied macrophytes, with As species concentrations varying with macrophyte taxon and tissue type. The highest As content measured in roots of Persicaria amphibia (L.) Gray (87.2 mg kg-1) greatly exceeded the 3 - 10 mg kg-1 range suggested as a potential phytotoxic level. Accumulation of toxic As species by plants suggested toxicological risk to higher organisms known to utilise macrophytes as a food source.

The neurotoxin β-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) : Sources, bioaccumulation and extraction procedures

β-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) is a neurotoxin linked to neurodegeneration, which is manifested in the devastating human diseases amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease. This neurotoxin is known to be produced by almost all tested species within the cyanobacterial phylum including free living as well as the symbiotic strains. The global distribution of the BMAA producers ranges from a terrestrial ecosystem on the Island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean to an aquatic ecosystem in Northern Europe, the Baltic Sea, where annually massive surface blooms occur. BMAA had been shown to accumulate in the Baltic Sea food web, with highest levels in the bottom dwelling fish-species as well as in mollusks. One of the aims of this thesis was to test the bottom-dwelling bioaccumulation hypothesis by using a larger number of samples allowing a statistical evaluation. Hence, a large set of fish individuals from the lake Finjasjön, were caught and the BMAA concentrations in different tissues were related to the season of catching, fish gender, total weight and species. The results reveal that fish total weight and fish species were positively correlated with BMAA concentration in the fish brain. Therefore, significantly higher concentrations of BMAA in the brain were detected in plankti-benthivorous fish species and heavier (potentially older) individuals. Another goal was to investigate the potential production of BMAA by other phytoplankton organisms. Therefore, diatom cultures were investigated and confirmed to produce BMAA, even in higher concentrations than cyanobacteria. All diatom cultures studied during this thesis work were show to contain BMAA, as well as one dinoflagellate species. This might imply that the environmental spread of BMAA in aquatic ecosystems is even higher than previously thought. Earlier reports on the concentration of BMAA in different organisms have shown highly variable results and the methods used for quantification have been intensively discussed in the scientific community. In the most recent studies, liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has become the instrument of choice, due to its high sensitivity and selectivity. Even so, different studies show quite variable concentrations of BMAA. In this thesis, three of the most common BMAA extraction protocols were evaluated in order to find out if the extraction could be one of the sources of variability. It was found that the method involving precipitation of proteins using trichloroacetic acid gave the best performance, complying with all in-house validation criteria. However, extractions of diatom and cyanobacteria cultures with this validated method and quantified using LC-MS/MS still resulted in variable BMAA concentrations, which suggest that also biological reasons contribute to the discrepancies. The current knowledge on the environmental factors that can induce or reduce BMAA production is still limited. In cyanobacteria, production of BMAA was earlier shown to be negative correlated with nitrogen availability – both in laboratory cultures as well as in natural populations. Based on this observation, it was suggested that in unicellular non-diazotrophic cyanobacteria, BMAA might take part in nitrogen metabolism. In order to find out if BMAA has a similar role in diatoms, BMAA was added to two diatom species in culture, in concentrations corresponding to those earlier found in the diatoms. The results suggest that BMAA might induce a nitrogen starvation signal in diatoms, as was earlier observed in cyanobacteria. However, diatoms recover shortly by the extracellular presence of excreted ammonia. Thus, also in diatoms, BMAA might be involved in the nitrogen balance in the cell.

Massive loggerhead nest predation by ghost crabs in Boavista Island (Cape Verde): implications of the absence of large predators.

[EN] The impact of nest predators on sea turtle hatching success is highly variable depending on predator abundance and also on interactions among different predators. Food web connectivity usually makes it difficult to understand predator-prey interactions and develop efficient conservation strategies. In the Cape Verde archipelago there is an important nesting area for loggerheads where ghost crabs are the only described nest predator. We have studied the impact of ghost crabs on loggerhead nests on this threatened population as well as the efficiency of several management practices to reduce this impact.

Typologie biosédimentaire de la baie de Saint-Brieuc (Manche ouest), et estimation de la biomasse des catégories trophiques macrozoobenthiques.

The aim of this report is to provide biomass estimates (AFDW, g.m-2 ) of the four main components of the benthic food web in the southern part of the Bay of St-Brieuc: suspension-feeders, deposit-feeders, herbivores and carnivores. Patterns in the environmental data (i.e., sedimentary characters) are first analysed, and then related to the spatial distribution of communities ; both approaches use classical ordination techniques (PCA, correspondence analysis). A second typology, based on a review of published litterature concerning coastal macrozoobenthos feeding, ascribes each taxonomic unit to a trophic group. Finally, quantitative results are thus given per biota ; suspension-feeders appear to dominate (in terms of biomass) most of fine-sand habitats of the studied area.

Stable isotope ratios in bentho-demersal biota along a depth gradient in the bay of biscay: A multitrophic study

Although stable isotope ratios are increasingly used to investigate the trophic ecology of marine organisms, their spatial variations are still poorly understood in the coastal environment. In this study, we measured the stable isotope composition (δ13C, δ15N) of suspended particulate organic matter (SPOM) (primary producer), a suspension feeder, the great scallop Pecten maximus (primary consumer), megabenthic decapods and benthic fishes (secondary consumers) along a depth gradient (from 5m to 155m depth) across the continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay. Although the three trophic levels exhibited similar δ13C patterns along the gradient, the δ15N patterns varied between SPOM, scallops and carnivores. The δ15N difference between SPOM and scallops decreased with increasing depth, suggesting that non trophic factors may affect the stable isotope composition of scallops at deepest sampling stations. An opposed trend was found between scallops and carnivores, suggesting that the trophic level of these carnivores increased at higher depth, possibly as an adaptation to lower prey abundances. Although our results suggest that primary consumers are suitable to establish isotopic baselines in coastal environments, we stress the need for further studies aiming at characterizing the variability of stable isotopes in coastal biota, and the respective effects of baseline, trophic and metabolic factors in their isotopic composition.

Ecotoxicological assessment of sediments from the Santos and São Vicente estuarine system- Brazil

O sedimento representa um importante depósito de contaminantes e uma fonte de contaminação para a cadeia alimentar aquática. Testes de toxicidade usando anfípodos como organismos-teste são empregados para avaliar sedimentos marinhos e estuarinos, juntamente com análises químicas. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a qualidade de sedimentos de seis estações situadas no Sistema Estuarino e Portuário de Santos e São Vicente (São Paulo-Brasil), usando testes de toxicidade aguda com sedimento com anfípodos (Tiburonella viscana) e análises químicas de metais, PCB, e PAH. Outros parâmetros do sedimento foram analisados, como carbono orgânico e granulometria. Foram observados níveis de contaminação mais altos na porção interna do estuário onde se localiza o Porto de Santos e a zona industrial. Os testes de toxicidade mostraram resultados adversos significantes para a maioria das amostras testadas, e os sedimentos da porção interna do estuário apresentaram toxicidade mais alta. As análises de componentes principais indicaram uma relação forte entre contaminação do sedimento e toxicidade. As correlações positivas destes fatores nas amostras estudadas foram usadas para estabelecer os pesos das concentrações químicas que estão associadas com os efeitos adversos. Tais análises permitiram estimar valores limiares de efeito para a contaminação de sedimento através de análises multivariadas, identificando os contaminantes associados com o efeito biológico. Estes valores sugeridos são: Cu, 69.0; Pb, 17.4; Zn, 73.3(mg.kg-1); PAHs, 0.5 (mg.kg-1) e PCBs, 0.1 (µg.kg-1).

Arthropoda de solo em um ecossistema semi-árido da região neotropical: composição, variabilidade temporal e estratificação

Caatinga is an important laboratory for studies about arthropods adaptations and aclimatations because its precipitation is highly variable in time. We studied the effects of time variability over the composition of Arthropods in a caatinga area. The study was carried out at a preservation area on Almas Farm, São José dos Cordeiros, Paraíba. Samples were collected in two 100 m long parallel transects, separated for a 30 m distance, in a dense tree dominated caatinga area, between August 2007 and July 2008. Samples were collected in each transect every 10 m. Ten soil samples were taken from each transect, both at 0-5 cm (A) and 5-10 cm (B) depth, resulting in 40 samples each month. The Berlese funnel method was used for fauna extraction. We registered 26 orders and the arthropods density in the soil ranged from 3237 to 22774 individuals.m-2 from January 2007 to March 2008, respectively. There was no difference between layers A and B regarding orders abundance and richness. The groups recorded include groups with few records or that had no records in the Caatinga region yet as Pauropoda, Psocoptera, Thysanoptera, Protura and Araneae. Acari was the most abundant group, with 66,7% of the total number of individuals. Soil Arthropods presented a positive correlation with soil moisture, vegetal cover, precipitation and real evapotranspiration. Increases in fauna richness and abundance were registered in February, a month after the beginning of the rainy season. A periodic rain events in arid and semiarid ecosystems triggers physiological responses in edafic organisms, like arthropods. Edafic arthropods respond to time variability in the Caatinga biome. This fauna variation has to be considered in studies of this ecosystem, because the variation of Arthropods composition in soil can affect the dynamics of the food web through time

FACTORS AFFECTING DIPOREIA GROWTH RATES IN LAKE SUPERIOR

An ability to predict population dynamics of the amphipod Diporeia is important in understanding how energy pathways in the Lake Superior food web might be altered by disturbances to the ecosystem. Estimating growth rates for this prominent prey item for fish requires information on the physiological effects of changes to its environment. These effects have been investigated for Diporeia in other Great Lakes, but little is known about Lake Superior populations. The primary objective of this study is to obtain quantitative data for rates of Diporeia respiration and consumption that can be incorporated into a bioenergetics model for Lake Superior. Benthic communities in Lake Superior were sampled bimonthly from April through September during 2011 and 2012 to investigate spatial and temporal trends of Diporeia abundances as well as size class structures of the population. Additional samples of Diporeia were collected and kept alive in natural sediment for laboratory experiments. Respiration rates for Diporeia were measured by monitoring dissolved oxygen concentrations in microcosoms using microelectrodes. Additionally, a series of experiments to estimate consumption rates based on food availability were conducted using 14C-labeled algae (Selenastrum capricornutum). Amphipod population densities are highest between 30-110 m (slope) compared to 0-30 m (shelf) or >110 m (profundal) regions in Lake Superior. This heterogeneous distribution of Diporeia in Lake Superior is an important component to quantifying lake-wide biomass. Rates of oxygen consumption by Diporeia range from 32.0 to 44.7 mgO2*gDW-1*d-1, and do not vary significantly with body size per individual. The predicted consumption rate corresponding to average Lake Superior algal carbon fluxes was 0.08 ± SE mgC*gDW-1*d-1. Data on Lake Superior Diporeia biomass and bioenergetics found in this study can be incorporated in a model used to estimate the viability of this population under potential future environmental stressors.

Does Landscape Context Affect Habitat Value? The Importance of Seascape Ecology in Back-reef Systems

Seascape ecology provides a useful framework from which to understand the processes governing spatial variability in ecological patterns. Seascape context, or the composition and pattern of habitat surrounding a focal patch, has the potential to impact resource availability, predator-prey interactions, and connectivity with other habitats. For my dissertation research, I combined a variety of approaches to examine how habitat quality for fishes is influenced by a diverse range of seascape factors in sub-tropical, back-reef ecosystems. In the first part of my dissertation, I examined how seascape context can affect reef fish communities on an experimental array of artificial reefs created in various seascape contexts in Abaco, Bahamas. I found that the amount of seagrass at large spatial scales was an important predictor of community assembly on these reefs. Additionally, seascape context had differing effects on various aspects of habitat quality for the most common reef species, White grunt Haemulon plumierii. The amount of seagrass at large spatial scales had positive effects on fish abundance and secondary production, but not on metrics of condition and growth. The second part of my dissertation focused on how foraging conditions for fish varied across a linear seascape gradient in the Loxahatchee River estuary in Florida, USA. Gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus, traded food quality for quantity along this estuarine gradient, maintaining similar growth rates and condition among sites. Additional work focused on identifying major energy flow pathways to two consumers in oyster-reef food webs in the Loxahatchee. Algal and microphytobenthos resource pools supported most of the production to these consumers, and body size for one of the consumers mediated food web linkages with surrounding mangrove habitats. All of these studies examined a different facet of the importance of seascape context in governing ecological processes occurring in focal habitats and underscore the role of connectivity among habitats in back-reef systems. The results suggest that management approaches consider the surrounding seascape when prioritizing areas for conservation or attempting to understand the impacts of seascape change on focal habitat patches. For this reason, spatially-based management approaches are recommended to most effectively manage back-reef systems.