Genes, race, and the ethics of belief.

A Troublesome Inheritance, by Nicholas Wade, should be read by anyone interested in race and recent human evolution. Wade deserves credit for challenging the popular dog-ma that biological differences between groups either don't exist or cannot ex-plain the relative success of different groups at different tasks. Wade's work should be read alongside another re-cent book, The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, by Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending. Together, these books represent a ma-jor turning point in the public debate about the speed with which relatively isolated groups can evolve: both books suggest that small genetic differences between members of different groups can have large impacts on their abilities and propensities, which in turn affect the outcomes of the societies in which they live.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

The collision branching process

We consider a branching model, which we call the collision branching process (CBP), that accounts for the effect of collisions, or interactions, between particles or individuals. We establish that there is a unique CBP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive. We review results on extinction probabilities, and obtain explicit expressions for the probability of explosion and the expected hitting times. The upwardly skip-free case is studied in some detail.

Simulating the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire using the CFD fire simulation software SMARTFIRE

At 8.18pm on 2 September 1998, Swissair Flight 111 (SR 111), took off from New York’s JFK airport bound for Geneva, Switzerland. Tragically, the MD-11 aircraft never arrived. According to the crash investigation report, published on 27 March 2003, electrical arcing in the ceiling void cabling was the most likely cause of the fire that brought down the aircraft. No one on board was aware of the disaster unfolding in the ceiling of the aircraft and, when a strange odour entered the cockpit, the pilots thought it was a problem with the air-conditioning system. Twenty minutes later, Swissair Flight 111 plunged into the Atlantic Ocean five nautical miles southwest of Peggy’s Cove, Nova Scotia, with the loss of all 229 lives on board. In this paper, the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the in-flight fire that brought down SR 111 is described. Reconstruction of the wreckage disclosed that the fire pattern was extensive and complex in nature. The fire damage created significant challenges to identify the origin of the fire and to appropriately explain the heat damage observed. The SMARTFIRE CFD software was used to predict the “possible” behaviour of airflow as well as the spread of fire and smoke within SR 111. The main aims of the CFD analysis were to develop a better understanding of the possible effects, or lack thereof, of numerous variables relating to the in-flight fire. Possible fire and smoke spread scenarios were studied to see what the associated outcomes would be. This assisted investigators at Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire & Explosion Group in assessing fire dynamics for cause and origin determination.

CFD fire simulation of the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire - part II: fire spread analysis

In 1998, Swissair Flight I I I (SR111) developed an in-flight fire shortly after take-off which resulted in the loss of the aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas MD-I 1, and all passengers and crew. The Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire and Explosion Group launched a four year investigation into the incident in an attempt to understand the cause and subsequent mechanisms which lead to the rapid spread of the in-flight fire. As part of this investigation, the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software was used to predict the 'possible' development of the fire and associated smoke movement. In this paper the CFD fire simulations are presented and model predictions compared with key findings from the investigation. The model predictions are shown to be consistent with a number of the investigation findings associated with the early stages of the fire development. The analysis makes use of simulated pre-fire airflow conditions within the MD-11 cockpit and above ceiling region presented in an earlier publication (Part 1) which was published in The Aeronautical Journal in January 2006(4).

Probabilistic approach in weighted Markov branching processes

This note provides a new probabilistic approach in discussing the weighted Markov branching process (WMBP) which is a natural generalisation of the ordinary Markov branching process. Using this approach, some important characteristics regarding the hitting times of such processes can be easily obtained. In particular, the closed forms for the mean extinction time and conditional mean extinction time are presented. The explosion behaviour of the process is investigated and the mean explosion time is derived. The mean global holding time and the mean total survival time are also obtained. The close link between these newly developed processes and the well-known compound Poisson processes is investigated. It is revealed that any weighted Markov branching process (WMBP) is a random time change of a compound Poisson process.

A study of the Type II-P supernova 2003gd in M74

We present photometric and spectroscopic data of the Type II-P supernova (SN II-P) 2003gd, which was discovered in M74 close to the end of its plateau phase. SN 2003gd is the first Type II supernova ( SN) to have a directly confirmed red supergiant ( RSG) progenitor. We compare SN 2003gd to SN 1999 em, a similar SN II-P, and estimate an explosion date of 2003 March 18. We determine a reddening towards the SN of E(B-V) = 0.14 +/- 0.06, using three different methods. We also calculate three new distances to M74 of 9.6 +/- 2.8, 7.7 +/- 1.7 and 9.6 +/- 2.2 Mpc. The former was estimated using the standard candle method (SCM), for Type II supernovae (SNe II), and the latter two using the brightest supergiants method (BSM). When combined with existing kinematic and BSM distance estimates, we derive a mean value of 9.3 +/- 1.8 Mpc. SN 2003gd was found to have a lower tail luminosity compared with other normal Type II-P supernovae ( SNe II-P) bringing into question the nature of this SN. We present a discussion concluding that this is a normal SN II-P, which is consistent with the observed progenitor mass of 8(-2)(+4) M-circle dot.

Detection of a Red Supergiant Progenitor Star of a Type II-Plateau Supernova

We present the discovery of a red supergiant star that exploded as supernova 2003gd in the nearby spiral galaxy M74. The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Gemini Telescope imaged this galaxy 6 to 9 months before the supernova explosion, and subsequent HST images confirm the positional coincidence of the supernova with a single resolved star that is a red supergiant of 8+4-2 solar masses. This confirms both stellar evolution models and supernova theories predicting that cool red supergiants are the immediate progenitor stars of type II-plateau supernovae.

The massive binary companion star to the progenitor of supernova 1993J

The massive star that underwent a collapse of its core to produce supernova (SN)1993J was subsequently identified as a non-variable red supergiant star in images of the galaxy M81 taken before explosion(1, 2). It showed an excess in ultraviolet and B-band colours, suggesting either the presence of a hot, massive companion star or that it was embedded in an unresolved young stellar association1. The spectra of SN1993J underwent a remarkable transformation from the signature of a hydrogen-rich type II supernova to one of a helium-rich (hydrogen-deficient) type Ib(3, 4). The spectral and photometric peculiarities were best explained by models in which the 13�20 solar mass supergiant had lost almost its entire hydrogen envelope to a close binary companion(5, 6, 7), producing a 'type IIb' supernova, but the hypothetical massive companion stars for this class of supernovae have so far eluded discovery. Here we report photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN1993J ten years after the explosion. At the position of the fading supernova we detect the unambiguous signature of a massive star: the binary companion to the progenitor.

From Quality Management to Socially Responsible Organisations: the Case for CSR

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the growing interest of the role of business in society, commonly referred to as CSR. Historically CSR can be traced back to the 1950s, although in very recent times there has been a virtual explosion of interest in its use and applicability in organisations. However, there are many unresolved issues, most notably in terms of how CSR should or can be implemented and embedded in an organisation. This paper therefore seeks to explore the relationship and potential synergies between quality management and CSR. Design/methodology/approach – The qualitative exploratory study in this paper represents the first stage of an ongoing research programme, and is based on an in-depth analysis of quality award submission documentation from six case organisations that have recently been recognised as winners in relation to their quest for business improvement. Findings – The paper finds that substantial evidence from each of the case organisations demonstrates the breadth and depth of activities in which they are engaging under the broad headings of workplace, environment, social impact, and economic impact. However, whilst there is no doubting the sincerity of the actions, the approaches and activities, a strategic focus on CSR is still very much in its infancy. Research limitations/implications – In this paper there is a paucity of empirical research examining how existing management tools, techniques and methodologies can be used to further the CSR debate. This paper represents an important first step in redressing this imbalance. Practical implications – The paper suggests that the quality management and business excellence frameworks can offer a strong foundation from which to develop CSR strategies, behaviours and activities in an organisation. Originality/value – This paper represents an important first step in understanding how and where CSR “fits” into an organisation and potentially how existing quality methodologies, tools and frameworks can be used to aid the implementation of CSR.

The Diversity of Type Ia Supernovae: Evidence for Systematics?

The photometric and spectroscopic properties of 26 well-observed Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) were analyzed with the aim of exploring SN Ia diversity. The sample includes (Branch) normal SNe, as well as extreme events such as SN 1991T and SN 1991bg, while the truly peculiar SNe Ia, SN 2000cx and SN 2002cx, are not included in our sample. A statistical treatment reveals the existence of three different groups. The first group (FAINT) consists of faint SNe Ia similar to SN 1991bg, with low expansion velocities and rapid evolution of Si II velocity. A second group consists of normal SNe Ia, also with high temporal velocity gradient (HVG), but with brighter mean absolute magnitude =-19.3 and higher expansion velocities than the FAINT SNe. The third group includes both normal and SN 1991T-like SNe Ia: these SNe populate a narrow strip in the Si II velocity evolution plot, with a low-velocity gradient (LVG), but have absolute magnitudes similar to HVGs. While the FAINT and HVG SNe Ia together seem to define a relation between R(Si II) and ���m15(B), the LVG SNe either do not conform to that relation or define a new, looser one. The R(Si II) premaximum evolution of HVGs is strikingly different from that of LVGs. We discuss the impact of this evidence on the understanding of SN Ia diversity, in terms of explosion mechanisms, degree of ejecta mixing, and ejecta-circumstellar material interaction.

Ten years of protein kinase B signalling: a hard Akt to follow

It is ten years since the publication of three papers describing the cloning of a new proto-oncogene serine/threonine kinase termed protein kinase B (PKB)/Akt. Key roles for this protein kinase in cellular processes such as glucose metabolism, cell proliferation, apoptosis, transcription and cell migration are now well established. The explosion of publications involving PKB/Akt in the past three years emphasizes the high level of current interest in this signalling molecule. This review focuses on tracing the characterization of this kinase, through the elucidation of its mechanism of regulation, to its role in regulating physiological and pathophysiological processes,to our current understanding of the biology of PKB/Akt, and prospects for the future.

SN 2008S: an electron-capture SN from a super-AGB progenitor?

We present comprehensive photometric and spectroscopic observations of the faint transient SN 2008S discovered in the nearby galaxy NGC 6946. SN 2008S exhibited slow photometric evolution and almost no spectral variability during the first nine months, implying a long photon diffusion time and a high-density circumstellar medium. Its bolometric luminosity (similar or equal to 10(41) erg s(-1) at peak) is low with respect to most core-collapse supernovae but is comparable to the faintest Type II-P events. Our quasi-bolometric light curve extends to 300 d and shows a tail phase decay rate consistent with that of Co-56. We propose that this is evidence for an explosion and formation of Ni-56 (0.0014 +/- 0.0003 M-circle dot). Spectra of SN 2008S show intense emission lines of H alpha, [Ca II] doublet and Ca II near-infrared (NIR) triplet, all without obvious P-Cygni absorption troughs. The large mid-infrared (MIR) flux detected shortly after explosion can be explained by a light echo from pre-existing dust. The late NIR flux excess is plausibly due to a combination of warm newly formed ejecta dust together with shock-heated dust in the circumstellar environment. We reassess the progenitor object detected previously in Spitzer archive images, supplementing this discussion with a model of the MIR spectral energy distribution. This supports the idea of a dusty, optically thick shell around SN 2008S with an inner radius of nearly 90 AU and outer radius of 450 AU, and an inferred heating source of 3000 K. The luminosity of the central star is L similar or equal to 10(4.6) L-circle dot. All the nearby progenitor dust was likely evaporated in the explosion leaving only the much older dust lying further out in the circumstellar environment. The combination of our long-term multiwavelength monitoring data and the evidence from the progenitor analysis leads us to support the scenario of a weak electron-capture supernova explosion in a super-asymptotic giant branch progenitor star (of initial mass 6-8 M-circle dot) embedded within a thick circumstellar gaseous envelope. We suggest that all of main properties of the electron-capture SN phenomenon are observed in SN 2008S and future observations may allow a definitive answer.

Dust and the Type II-Plateau Supernova 2004et

We present mid-infrared (MIR) observations of the Type II-plateau supernova (SN) 2004et, obtained with the Spitzer Space Telescope between 64 and 1406 days past explosion. Late-time optical spectra are also presented. For the period 300-795 days past explosion, we argue that the spectral energy distribution (SED) of SN 2004et comprises (1) a hot component due to emission from optically thick gas, as well as free-bound radiation; (2) a warm component due to newly formed, radioactively heated dust in the ejecta; and (3) a cold component due to an IR echo from the interstellar-medium dust of the host galaxy, NGC 6946. There may also have been a small contribution to the IR SED due to free-free emission from ionized gas in the ejecta. We reveal the first-ever spectroscopic evidence for silicate dust formed in the ejecta of a supernova. This is supported by our detection of a large, but progressively declining, mass of SiO. However, we conclude that the mass of directly detected ejecta dust grew to no more than a few times 10(-4) M-circle dot. We also provide evidence that the ejecta dust formed in comoving clumps of fixed size. We argue that, after about two years past explosion, the appearance of wide, box-shaped optical line profiles was due to the impact of the ejecta on the progenitor circumstellar medium and that the subsequent formation of a cool, dense shell was responsible for a later rise in the MIR flux. This study demonstrates the rich, multifaceted ways in which a typical core-collapse supernova and its progenitor can produce and/or interact with dust grains. The work presented here adds to the growing number of studies that do not support the contention that SNe are responsible for the large mass of observed dust in high-redshift galaxies.