Optical detection of mealiness in apples using laser TDRS

Mealiness is a textural attribute related to an internal fruit disorder that involves quality loss. It is characterised by the combination of abnormal softness of the fruit and absence of free juiciness in the mouth when eaten by the consumer. Recent research concluded with the development of precise instrumental procedure to measure a scale of mealiness based on the combination of several rheological properties and empirical magnitudes. In this line, time-domain laser reflectance spectroscopy (TDRS) is a medical technology, new in agrofood research, which is capable of obtaining physical and chemical information independently and simultaneously, and this can be of interest to characterise mealiness. Using VIS & NIR lasers as light sources, TDRS was applied in this work to Golden Delicious and Cox apples (n=90), conforming several batches of untreated samples and storage-treated (20°C & 95%RH) to promote the development of mealiness. The collected database was clustered into different groups according to their instrumental test values (Barreiro et al, 1998). The optical coefficients were used as explanatory variables when building discriminant analysis functions for mealiness, achieving a classification score above 80% of correctly identified mealy versus fresh apples.

Metodología para maximizar la rentabilidad de una terminal marítima de contenedores a través de la optimización de su grado de automatización

Son generalmente aceptadas las tendencias actuales de maximización de la automatización para la adaptación de las terminales marítimas de contenedores a las cada vez mayores exigencias competitivas del negocio de transporte de contenedores. En esta investigación, se somete a consideración dichas tendencias a través de un análisis que tenga en cuenta la realidad global de la terminal pero también su propia realidad local que le permita aprovechar sus fortalezas y minimizar sus debilidades en un mercado continuamente en crecimiento y cambio. Para lo cual se ha desarrollado un modelo de análisis en el que se tengan en cuenta los parámetros técnicos, operativos, económicos y financieros que influyen en el diseño de una terminal marítima de contenedores, desde su concepción como ente dependiente para generar negocio, todos ellos dentro de un perímetro definido por el mercado del tráfico de contenedores así como las limitaciones físicas introducidas por la propia terminal. Para la obtención de dicho modelo ha sido necesario llevar a cabo un proceso de estudio del contexto actual del tráfico de contenedores y su relación con el diseño de las terminales marítimas, así como de las metodologías propuestas hasta ahora por los diferentes autores para abordar el proceso de dimensionamiento y diseño de la terminal. Una vez definido el modelo que ha de servir de base para el diseño de una terminal marítima de contenedores desde un planteamiento multicriterio, se analiza la influencia de las diversas variables explicativas de dicho modelo y se cuantifica su impacto en los resultados económicos, financieros y operativos de la terminal. Un paso siguiente consiste en definir un modelo simplificado que vincule la rentabilidad de una concesión de terminal con el tráfico esperado en función del grado de automatización y del tipo de terminal. Esta investigación es el fruto del objetivo ambicioso de aportar una metodología que defina la opción óptima de diseño de una terminal marítima de contenedores apoyada en los pilares de la optimización del grado de automatización y de la maximización de la rentabilidad del negocio que en ella se desarrolla. It is generally accepted current trends in automation to maximize the adaptation of maritime container terminals to the growing competitive demands of the business of container shipping. In this research, is submitted to these trends through an analysis taking into account the global reality of the terminal but also their own local reality it could exploit its strengths and minimize their weaknesses in a market continuously growing and changing. For which we have developed a model analysis that takes into account the technical, operational, financial and economic influence in the design of a container shipping terminal, from its conception as being dependent to generate business, all within a perimeter defined by the market of container traffic and the physical constraints introduced by the terminal. To obtain this model has been necessary to conduct a study process in the current context of container traffic and its relation to the design of marine terminals, as well as the methodologies proposed so far by different authors to address the process sizing and design of the terminal. Having defined the model that will serve as the basis for the design for a container shipping terminal from a multi-criteria approach, we analyze the influence of various explanatory variables of the model and quantify their impact on economic performance, financial and operational of the terminal. A next step is to define a simplified model that links the profitability of a terminal concession with traffic expected on the basis of the degree of automation and the kind of terminal. This research is the result of the ambitious target of providing a methodology to define the optimal choice of designing a container shipping terminal on the pillars of automation optimizing and maximizing the profitability of the business that it develops.

Optical detection of mealiness in apples using laser TDRS.

Mealiness is a textural attribute related to an internal fruit disorder that involves quality loss. It is characterised by the combination of abnormal softness of the fruit and absence of free juiciness in the mouth when eaten by the consumer. Recent research concluded with the development of precise instrumental procedure to measure a scale of mealiness based on the combination of several rheological properties and empirical magnitudes. In this line, time-domain laser reflectance spectroscopy (TDRS) is a new medical technology, used to characterise the optical properties of tissues, and to locate affected areas like tumours. Among its advantages compared to more traditional spectroscopic techniques, there is the feasibility to asses simultaneously and independently two optical parameters: the absorption of the light inside the irradiated body, and the scattering of the photons across the tissues, at each wavelength, generating two coefficients (µa, absorption coeff.; and µ's, transport scattering coeff.). If it is assumed that they are related respectively to chemical components and to physical properties of the sample, TDRS can be applied to the quantification of chemicals and the measurement of the rheological properties (i.e. mealiness estimation) at the same time. Using VIS & NIR lasers as light sources, TDRS was applied in this work to Golden Delicious and Cox apples (n=90), conforming several batches of untreated samples and storage-treated (20°C & 95%RH) to promote the development of mealiness. The collected database was clustered into different groups according to their instrumental test values (Barreiro et al, 1998). The optical coefficients were used as explanatory variables when building discriminant analysis functions for mealiness, achieving a classification score above 80% of correctly identified mealy versus fresh apples.

Optimal Combined Forecasts for Electricity Prices: Influence of Clean Energies

In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

Explanation of changes in real estate stock market

The aim of this study is to explain the changes in the real estate prices as well as in the real estate stock market prices, using some macro-economic explanatory variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), the real interest rate and the unemployment rate. Several regressions have been carried out in order to express some types of incremental and absolute deflated real estate lock market indexes in terms of the macro-economic variables. The analyses are applied to the Swedish economy. The period under study is 1984-1994. Time series on monthly data are used. i.e. the number of data-points is 132. If time leads/lags are introduced in the e regressions, significant improvements in the already high correlations are achieved. The signs of the coefficients for IR, UE and GDP are all what one would expect to see from an economic point of view: those for GDP are all positive, those for both IR and UE are negative. All the regressions have high R2 values. Both markets anticipate change in the unemployment rate by 6 to 9 months, which seems reasonable because such change can be forecast quite reliably. But, on the contrary, there is no reason why they should anticipate by 3-6 months changes in the interest rate that can hardly be reliably forecast so far in advance.

Custos de procedimentos de saúde e associação com nível de atividade física e estado nutricional de idosos hipertensos e diabéticos: análise do Estudo SABE - Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento, 2010

Introdução O nível de atividade física (NAF) insuficiente e estado nutricional (EN) inadequado conferem risco de desenvolvimento de hipertensão arterial e diabete, bem como dificultam o controle destas doenças. Assim, infere-se que os custos despendidos pelo SUS com medicamentos, internações e consultas de hipertensos e diabéticos apresentem relação inversa com NAF, incluindo a prática de caminhada e EN. Entretanto, estudos epidemiológicos que descrevam estes custos e analisem essas associações na população idosa são inexistentes no Brasil, o que dificulta a fundamentação para a implementação de políticas publicas para a economia de recursos. Objetivo Descrever os custos com procedimentos de saúde de idosos hipertensos e diabéticos e verificar qual a sua associação com NAF e EN, segundo sexo e grupos etários. Métodos A amostra foi constituída por 806 idosos com autorreferência à hipertensão e/ou diabete ( 60 anos) residentes no município de São PauloSP, participantes das três coortes do Estudo Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento SABE - em 2010. A variável dependente custo total anual (em Reais), foi estimada com base nos dados autorreferidos sobre uso de medicamentos, uso dos serviços ambulatoriais e internações hospitalares, retroativos a um ano da coleta de dados. A variáveis explanatórias: i) NAF foi estimada a partir de entrevista utilizando o International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, versão curta), classificando os idosos segundo duração da realização de atividades físicas moderada, em ativos ( 150 minutos/semana) e insuficientemente ativos (< 150 minutos/semana); ii) Prática de caminhada, categorizada segundo frequência semanal: a) 4 dias/ semana; b) 1 a 3 dias/semana; c) não caminha. iii) EN, identificado pelo índice de massa corporal (IMC), classificando os idosos em dois grupos: a) IMC < 28 kg/ m²; b) IMC 28 kg/ m² (excesso de peso); as variáveis de controle foram o sexo, grupos etários (a. 70 anos; b. 65 a 69 anos; c. 60 a 64 anos); estado civil (a. casado; b. outros) e, escolaridade (a. sem escolaridade; b. 1 ano). A descrição dos custos segundo as NAF e EN foi representada pelos valores de média e IC95 por cento , mediana e P25 P75, valores mínimos e máximos. Modelos de regressão logística múltipla foram empregados para analisar as associações entre variáveis dependentes e explanatórias. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 5 por cento e todas as análises foram realizadas considerando amostras complexas, por meio do software Stata, 13.0. 9 Resultados: A média de custo total anual por pessoa foi de R$ 732,54 e a soma dos custos relativa a 12 meses para os 806 idosos foi de R$ 609.587,20, sempre superiores para idosos em excesso de peso, com NAF insuficiente e para idosos que não caminham. Idosos em excesso de peso apresentaram chance 50 por cento superior de estarem no grupo de maior custo total anual (OR 1.49, IC95 por cento 1.01 2.18) e mais de 70 por cento superior de maior custo com medicamentos (OR 1.71, IC95 por cento 1.18 2.47). A ausência de caminhada significou a chance superior para maiores custos anuais com medicamentos (OR 1.63, IC95 por cento 1.06 2.51) e custos totais (OR 1.82, IC95 por cento 1.17 2.81). Todas as análises ajustadas por sexo e idade. O NAF não se associou aos custos totais e custo com medicamentos (p>0.05). Conclusão: Os custos para o controle de HAS e DM em idosos são altos e se associam inversamente à prática de caminhada e ao estado nutricional, especialmente em relação ao custo com o uso de medicamentos antihipertensivos e hipoglicemiantes.

Prevalência e incidência de obesidade sarcopênica em coorte de idosos domiciliados no município de São Paulo

Introdução: Evidências epidemiológicas mostram que a obesidade sarcopênica (OS) em idosos está associada a um acelerado declínio funcional e alto risco de morbimortalidade, sendo que seu impacto tem se tornado grande preocupação dos profissionais de saúde. Objetivo: Estimar a prevalência e a incidência de obesidade sarcopênica, em coorte de idosos domiciliados no município de São Paulo/Brasil 2000 e 2010. Casuística e Métodos: Foram utilizados dados do Estudo SABE (Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento), realizado no município de São Paulo em 2000 (2.143 idosos), e em 2010 (795 idosos). A população deste estudo foi constituída por idosos ( 70 anos), de ambos os sexos, que apresentaram todos os dados necessários para este estudo e que concordaram em participar, totalizando 871 idosos analisados em 2000 e 656 idosos em 2010. As variáveis de estudo foram: 1. Dependente - obesidade sarcopênica, identificada segundo: obesidade, diagnosticada pelo valor da circunferência da cintura (CC 94 cm e CC 80 cm para homens e mulheres, respectivamente); sarcopenia, identificada por: 1- força muscular, pelo teste de preensão manual (FPM - kg) (baixa P25; normal > P25, da mesma população), 2- massa muscular (MM), obtida pelo índice de massa muscular (IMM=MM/altura²) (baixa P20; normal > P20, da mesma população) e 3- desempenho físico, identificado pelo teste (tempo dependente segundos) de sentar e levantar 5 vezes de uma cadeira (SeL) , com os braços cruzados sobre o peito (baixo P75; normal < P75); 2. Explanatórias - sexo e grupos etários (70 79 e 80). Foram classificados com OS idosos que apresentaram, simultaneamente, valores de CC adotados e baixo desempenho e baixa MM, ou então, desempenho normal, mas baixas FPM e MM. A prevalência de obesidade sarcopênica em 2000 e em 2010 foi estimada pelo número de casos de OS identificados nos dois momentos, onde foram realizadas comparações entre os intervalos de confiança, para verificar diferença estatística em idosos ( por cento ) com OS, segundo variáveis explanatórias, com nível de significância de 5 por cento . Para o cálculo do coeficiente de incidência de OS, em 2010, foi considerado o tempo de observação de cada indivíduo, determinado de maneira específica para cada caso. Para os cálculos foi utilizado o programa: Stata/SE ® 10.0 for Windows. Resultados: Dos 871 idosos analisados em 2000, 85 (7,4 por cento ) foram identificados com OS [6,5 por cento mulheres (IC 5,08,4) e 4,8 por cento 80 anos (IC 3,6-6,4)] (p 5 por cento ), e, em 2010, (n=656), 73 (9,2 por cento ) foram identificados com OS [7,2 por cento mulheres (IC 5,5-9,4) e 5,3 por cento 80 anos (IC 4,0-7,0)] (p 5 por cento ). Em 10 anos, foram identificados 43 novos casos de OS. O coeficiente de incidência foi 15,29/1000 pessoas/ano entre 2000 e 2010. Conclusões: A prevalência de OS em 2000 e 2010 foi maior nas mulheres e nos idosos mais longevos, sendo que, em ambos os casos, foi maior em 2010, quando comparada a 2000. Não houve diferença significativa entre os coeficientes de incidência, segundo as variáveis explanatórias.

Los límites entre el turismo y la migración residencial: una tipología

En los procesos de movilidad internacional de jubilados desde el norte de Europa hasta las costas mediterráneas, se reconocen nuevos estilos de vida relacionados con fenómenos de naturaleza en ocasiones turística y a veces migratoria. Las sociedades que acogen a esta población requieren la definición de criterios para categorizar a estas personas como turistas o inmigrantes, pues la financiación y la gestión de sus recursos depende de ello. En este trabajo, se construye una tipología creada a partir de una encuesta realizada a 872 ciudadanos europeos en la provincia de Alicante. El empadronamiento y la forma de tenencia de la vivienda ocupada se revelan como las variables explicativas de la relación existente entre el turismo de larga estancia y la migración residencial.

Self-rated health and mortality: a follow-up study of a Spanish population

Objectives: Self-rated health (SRH) is known to be a valid indicator for the prediction of health outcomes. The aims of this study were to describe and analyse the associations between SRH and health status, socio-economic and demographic characteristics; and between SRH and mortality in a Spanish population. Study design: Longitudinal study. Methods: A sample of 5275 adults (age ≥21 years) residing in the Valencian Community (Spanish Mediterranean region) was surveyed in 2005 and followed for four years. SRH was categorized into good and poor health. The response variable was mortality (dead/alive), obtained from the local mortality register. Logistic regression models were adjusted in order to analyse the associations between SRH and health status, socio-economic and demographic characteristics; odds ratios were calculated to measure the associations. Poisson regression models were adjusted in order to analyse the associations between mortality and explanatory variables; the relative risk of death was calculated to measure the associations. Results: Poor SRH was reported by 25.9% of respondents, and the mortality rate after four years of follow-up was 3.6%. An association was found between SRH and the presence of chronic disease and disability in men and women. A perception of poor health vs good health led to a mortality risk of 3.0 in men and 2.7 in women. SRH was predictive of mortality, even after adjusting for all other variables. In men and women, the presence of disability provided additional predictive ability. Conclusions: SRH was predictive of mortality in both men and women, and acted as a mediator between socio-economic, demographic and health conditions and mortality.

Social determinants of sexual satisfaction in Spain considered from the gender perspective

Aims: To describe gender- and social class-related inequalities in sexual satisfaction and analyze their relationship with self-perceived health status. Methods: This population-based, cross-sectional study included 7384 sexually active people aged 16 years and over residing in Spain in 2009 (3951 men and 3433 women). The explanatory variables were gender, age, social class, share in performing domestic tasks, spend time looking after oneself, collaborate economically in supporting the family, caring for children, self-perceived health status, and the desire to increase or decrease frequency of having sexual relations. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted. Results: Among women, sexual satisfaction declines progressively after age 45. Sexual satisfaction is 1.7 times higher among women who look after themselves and who feel good compared with those who do not. The odds of wanting to increase sex is 3.3 times higher for women who are satisfied compared with women who desire a lower frequency of sexual intercourses; and good perceived health was associated with sexual satisfaction. In satisfied men, the corresponding odds is 1.9 times that of men desiring to reduce their frequency of sex. Conclusions: Gender and social class inequalities are found in sexual satisfaction. This is associated with perceived health status, adding evidence in support of the World Health Organization definition of sexual health.

Changes in Access to Health Services of the Immigrant and Native-Born Population in Spain in the Context of Economic Crisis

Aim: To analyze changes in access to health care and its determinants in the immigrant and native-born populations in Spain, before and during the economic crisis. Methods: Comparative analysis of two iterations of the Spanish National Health Survey (2006 and 2012). Outcome variables were: unmet need and use of different healthcare levels; explanatory variables: need, predisposing and enabling factors. Multivariate models were performed (1) to compare outcome variables in each group between years, (2) to compare outcome variables between both groups within each year, and (3) to determine the factors associated with health service use for each group and year. Results: unmet healthcare needs decreased in 2012 compared to 2006; the use of health services remained constant, with some changes worth highlighting, such as the decline in general practitioner visits among autochthons and a narrowed gap in specialist visits between the two populations. The factors associated with health service use in 2006 remained constant in 2012. Conclusion: Access to healthcare did not worsen, possibly due to the fact that, until 2012, the national health system may have cushioned the deterioration of social determinants as a consequence of the financial crisis. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the effects of health policy responses to the crisis after 2012.

Comparative regional perspectives: the Bologna process and higher education attainment. Jean Monnet/Robert Schumann Paper Series Vol 13 No. 11, August 2013

Since 1999, countries have voluntarily chosen to reform their higher education systems to join the European Higher Education Area. This paper compares Bologna Process implementation across four regions within the European Union. While there are 47 countries participating in the Bologna Process, this paper uses statistical analysis to consider 25 of the 28 EU Member States. The time period of analysis is 2000-2011, prior to Croatia’s accession to the EU on 1 July 2013. Across Europe there are inter-regional differences in how the Bologna Process has been implemented and in the political economy contexts that influence higher education reform for policy convergence. There are three explanatory variables in the political economy context: 1. competitive economic pressures and globalization 2. domestic politics at the national level 3. leadership from the supranational European Union that socially constructs regional norms Tertiary education attainment is the dependent variable of interest in this research. The objective of 40%, for 30-34 year olds, is Europe 2020 benchmark target. There are additional higher education reform criteria encompassed in the Bologna Process. These criteria concern Credit and Degree Structure, Quality Assurance, and Recognition of academic degrees among countries in the EHEA. This tertiary education attainment variable, which is of interest in this paper, does not capture the entire implementation process. Nevertheless, it is a measure of one important indicator of success in providing higher education access to populations within the context of democratic governance. This research finds that statistically GDP Per Capita is the most significant variable in relationship to tertiary education attainment across four regional areas in the European Union.