Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Can a climate record be extracted from giant sequoia tree rings?

Extreme low growth events in giant sequoia ring-width index series coincide with severe droughts in the San Joaquin drainage, on whose eastern flank the sequoia groves stand. Comparison with a network of 102 largely moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from western North America suggests that this relationship has been stable for at least 380 years. The twentieth century is not unusual in the frequency of these events. We expect the growth record will soon be replicated for over 2000 years at two locations.

Interactions between climatic variables controlling subalpine tree growth: implications for climatic history of the Sierra Nevada, California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tree-ring records from foxtail pine (Pinus balfouriana) and western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) growing near tree line in the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, show strong correlations with summer temperature and winter precipitation. Response surfaces portraying tree growth as a function of summer temperature and winter precipitation indicate a strong interaction between these variables in controlling growth. ... Above average growth for both foxtail pine and western juniper from AD 1480 to 1570 can be interpreted as indicating an extended period of warm, moist conditions unequalled during the 20th century.

Inferences from tree rings on low frequency variations in runoff in the interior western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Low frequency variations in runoff, AD 1700-1964, in the interior western United States are inferred from smoothed tree-ring series averaged over north, central, and south regions. ... Relative locations of peaks and troughs in streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and tree-ring series suggest that annual precipitation and warm season evapotranspiration variations may both be important to low frequency fluctuations in tree growth and in streamflow.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

Modeling North Pacific temperature and pressure changes from coastal tree-ring chronologies

Climate modeling using coastal tree-ring chronologies has yielded the first summer temperature reconstructions for coastal stations along the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. These land temperature reconstructions are strongly correlated with nearby sea surface temperatures, indicating large-scale ocean-atmospheric influences. Significant progress has also been made in modeling winter land temperatures and sea surface temperatures from coastal and shipboard stations. In addition to temperature, the pressure variability center over the central North Pacific Ocean (PAC), which is related to the strength and location of the Aleutian Low pressure system, could be extended using coastal tree rings.

Integrating varve and tree-ring time series for southern California climate reconstruction: a 20th century outlook [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Our objective is to combine terrestrial and oceanic records for reconstructing West Coast climate. Tree rings and marine laminated sediments provide high-resolution, accurately dated proxy data on the variability of climate and on the productivity of the ocean and have been used to reconstruct precipitation, temperature, sea level pressure, primary productivity, and other large-scale parameters. We present here the latest Santa Barbara basin varve chronology for the twentieth century as well as a newly developed tree-ring chronology for Torrey pine.

Synoptic dendroclimatology: a process-based approach for linking tree-ring information to atmospheric circulation over the Pacific and western North America [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Synoptic dendroclimatology uses dated tree rings to study and reconstruct climate from the viewpoint of the climate's weather components and their relationship to atmospheric circulation. This approach defines a connection between large-scale circulation and ring-width variation at local sites using correlation fields, composite maps, indexing, and other circulation-based methodologies.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with tree growth anomalies in the central and southern Sierra Nevada mountains [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): In this work, I examine patterns of atmospheric circulation associated with tree growth anomalies at mid-to-high latitudes (2000-3500 meters).