Essays in policy evaluation

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies that aim at providing new evidence in the field of public policy evaluation. In particular, the first two chapters focus on the effects of the European cohesion policy, while the third chapter assesses the effectiveness of Italian labour market incentives in reducing long-term unemployment. The first study analyses the effect of EU funds on life satisfaction across European regions , under the assumption that projects financed by structural funds in the fields of employment, education, health and environment may affect the overall quality of life in recipient regions. Using regional data from the European Social Survey in 2002-2006, it resorts to a regression discontinuity design, where the discontinuity is provided by the institutional framework of the policy. The second study aims at estimating the impact of large transfers from a centralized authority to a local administration on the incidence of white collar crimes. It merges a unique dataset on crimes committed in Italian municipalities between 2007 and 2011 with information on the disbursement of EU structural funds in 2007-2013 programming period, employing an instrumental variable estimation strategy that exploits the variation in the electoral cycle at local level. The third study analyses the impact of an Italian labour market policy that allowed firms to cut their labour costs on open-ended job contracts when hiring long-term unemployed workers. It takes advantage of a unique dataset that draws information from the unemployment lists in Veneto region and it resorts to a regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of the policy on the job finding rate of long-term unemployed workers.

Assessment of in vivo genotoxicity of the rodent carcinogen furan: evaluation of DNA damage and induction of micronuclei in mouse splenocytes

In recent years, several surveys have highlighted the presence of the rodent carcinogen furan in a variety of food items. Even though the evidence of carcinogenicity of furan is unequivocal, the underlying mechanism has not been fully elucidated. In particular, the role of genotoxicity in furan carcinogenicity is still not clear, even though this information is considered pivotal for the assessment of the risk posed by the presence of low doses of furan in food. In this work, the genotoxic potential of furan in vivo has been investigated in mice, under exposure conditions similar to those associated with cancer onset in the National Toxicology Program long-term bioassay. To this aim, male B6C3F1 mice were treated by gavage for 4 weeks with 2, 4, 8 and 15 mg furan/kg b.w./day. Spleen was selected as the target organ for genotoxicity assessment, in view of the capability of quiescent splenocytes to accumulate DNA damage induced by repeat dose exposure. The induction of primary DNA damage in splenocytes was evaluated by alkaline single-cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay) and by the immunofluorescence detection of foci of phosphorylated histone H2AX (gamma-H2AX). The presence of cross-links was probed in a modified comet assay, in which cells were irradiated in vitro with gamma-rays before electrophoresis. Chromosome damage was quantitated through the detection of micronuclei in mitogen-stimulated splenocytes using the cytokinesis-block method. Micronucleus induction was also assessed with a modified protocol, using the repair inhibitor 1-beta-arabinofuranosyl-cytosine to convert single-strand breaks in micronuclei. The results obtained show a significant (P < 0.01) increase of gamma-H2AX foci in mitogen-stimulated splenocytes of mice treated with 8 and 15 mg furan/kg b.w. and a statistically significant (P < 0.001) increases of micronuclei in binucleated splenocytes cultured in vitro. Conversely, no effect of in vivo exposure to furan was observed when freshly isolated quiescent splenocytes were analysed by immunofluorescence and in comet assays, both with standard and radiation-modified protocols. These results indicate that the in vivo exposure to furan gives rise to pre-mutagenic DNA damage in resting splenocytes, which remains undetectable until it is converted in frank lesions during the S-phase upon mitogen stimulation. The resulting DNA strand breaks are visualized by the increase in gamma-H2AX foci and may originate micronuclei at the subsequent mitosis.

Is hatchery stocking a help or harm? Evidence, limitations and future directions in ecological and genetic surveys

Hatchery fish stocking for stock enhancement has been operated at a massive and global scale. However, the use of hatchery fish as a means of stock enhancement is highly controversial, and little is known about its effects on wild stock and consequences for stock enhancement. Here we review the scientific literature on this subject in order to address a fundamental - question is hatchery stocking a help or harm for wild stock and stock enhancement? We summarized 266 peer-reviewed papers that were published in the last 50 years, which describe empirical case studies on ecology and genetics of hatchery stocks and their effects on stock enhancement. Specifically, we asked whether hatchery stock and wild stock differed in fitness and the level of genetic variation, and whether stocking affected population abundance. Seventy studies contained comparisons between hatchery and wild stocks, out of which 23 studies showed significantly negative effects of hatchery rearing on the fitness of stocked fish, and 28 studies showed reduced genetic variation in hatchery populations. None of these studies suggested a positive genetic effect on the fitness of hatchery-reared individuals after release. These results suggest that negative effects of hatchery rearing are not just a concern but undeniably present in many aquaculture species. In a few cases, however, no obvious effect of hatchery rearing was observed, and a positive contribution of hatchery stock to the abundance of fish populations was indicated. These examples suggest that there is a chance to improve hatchery practices and mitigate the negative effects on wild stocks, although scientific data supporting the positive effect on stock enhancement are largely missing at this moment. Technically, microsatellite-based parentage assignments have been proven as a useful tool for the evaluation of reproductive fitness in natural settings, which is a key for stock enhancement by hatchery-based stocking. We discuss implications of these results, as well as their limitations and future directions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Prophylaxis and therapy of postdural puncture headache--a critical evaluation of treatment options]

Since the first description of spinal and epidural anaesthesia, postdural puncture headache (PDPH) is a well known complication. Its prophylaxis and treatment has been studied and discussed for more than 100 years, but the evidence is still limited. Due to relatively low prevalence of PDPH, prospective RCTs are often missing, and the frequently self-limiting character of PDPH impedes an adequate interpretation of results from studies without a control group. Taking side effects and complications into account, a prophylactic treatment of PDPH cannot be recommended. In case of PDPH, non-opioid analgesics are the first choice treatment. The epidural blood patch remains the mainstay of severe PDPH therapy. Noninvasive therapies like theophylline, sumatriptan and ACTH can be an alternative. However, an evidence-based recommendation is lacking. The development of standard operating procedures for accidental dural punctures and PDPH is recommended.

Xenotransplantation of cryopreserved ovarian tissue from patients with ovarian tumors into SCID mice--no evidence of malignant cell contamination

This study examined the possible presence of malignant cells in ovarian cortex from patients with ovarian tumors after xenografting of the ovarian tissue into severe combined immunodeficiency mice. None of the mice presented symptoms of reintroduced malignancy nor did microscopic and immunohistochemical evaluation of the grafts raise any suspicion of residual malignant disease.

Genetic evidence supporting the association of protease and protease inhibitor genes with inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review

As part of the European research consortium IBDase, we addressed the role of proteases and protease inhibitors (P/PIs) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), characterized by chronic mucosal inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract, which affects 2.2 million people in Europe and 1.4 million people in North America. We systematically reviewed all published genetic studies on populations of European ancestry (67 studies on Crohn's disease [CD] and 37 studies on ulcerative colitis [UC]) to identify critical genomic regions associated with IBD. We developed a computer algorithm to map the 807 P/PI genes with exact genomic locations listed in the MEROPS database of peptidases onto these critical regions and to rank P/PI genes according to the accumulated evidence for their association with CD and UC. 82 P/PI genes (75 coding for proteases and 7 coding for protease inhibitors) were retained for CD based on the accumulated evidence. The cylindromatosis/turban tumor syndrome gene (CYLD) on chromosome 16 ranked highest, followed by acylaminoacyl-peptidase (APEH), dystroglycan (DAG1), macrophage-stimulating protein (MST1) and ubiquitin-specific peptidase 4 (USP4), all located on chromosome 3. For UC, 18 P/PI genes were retained (14 proteases and 4 protease inhibitors), with a considerably lower amount of accumulated evidence. The ranking of P/PI genes as established in this systematic review is currently used to guide validation studies of candidate P/PI genes, and their functional characterization in interdisciplinary mechanistic studies in vitro and in vivo as part of IBDase. The approach used here overcomes some of the problems encountered when subjectively selecting genes for further evaluation and could be applied to any complex disease and gene family.

Towards optimal treatment with growth hormone in short children and adolescents: evidence and theses

Treatment with growth hormone (GH) has become standard practice for replacement in GH-deficient children or pharmacotherapy in a variety of disorders with short stature. However, even today, the reported adult heights achieved often remain below the normal range. In addition, the treatment is expensive and may be associated with long-term risks. Thus, a discussion of the factors relevant for achieving an optimal individual outcome in terms of growth, costs, and risks is required. In the present review, the heterogenous approaches of treatment with GH are discussed, considering the parameters available for an evaluation of the short- and long-term outcomes at different stages of treatment. This discourse introduces the potential of the newly emerging prediction algorithms in comparison to other more conventional approaches for the planning and evaluation of the response to GH. In rare disorders such as those with short stature, treatment decisions cannot easily be deduced from personal experience. An interactive approach utilizing the derived experience from large cohorts for the evaluation of the individual patient and the required decision-making may facilitate the use of GH. Such an approach should also lead to avoiding unnecessary long-term treatment in unresponsive individuals.

Clinical evaluation of 3 overdenture concepts with tooth roots and implants: 2-year results

PURPOSE: In the present cohort study, overdentures with a combined root and implant support were evaluated and compared with either exclusively root- or implant-supported overdentures. Results of a 2-year follow-up period are reported, namely survival of implants, root copings, and prostheses, plus prosthetic complications, maintenance service, and patient satisfaction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fourteen patients were selected for the combined overdenture therapy and were compared with 2 patient groups in which either roots or implants provided overdenture support. Altogether, 14, 17, and 15 patients (in groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively) were matched with regard to age, sex, treatment time, and observation period. The mean age was around 67 years. Periodontal parameters were recorded, radiographs were taken, and all complications and failures were registered during the entire observation time. The patients answered a 9-item questionnaire by means of a visual analogue scale (VAS). RESULTS: One implant failed and 1 tooth root was removed following longitudinal root fracture. Periodontal/peri-implant parameters gave evidence of good oral hygiene for roots and implants, and slight crestal bone resorption was measured for both. Technical complications and service performed were significantly higher in the first year (P < .04) in all 3 groups and significantly higher in the tooth root group (P < .03). The results of the VAS indicated significantly lower scores for satisfaction, speaking ability, wearing comfort, and denture stability with combined or exclusive root support (P < .05 and .02, respectively). Initial costs of overdentures with combined or root support were 10% lower than for implant overdentures. CONCLUSION: The concept of combined root and implant support can be integrated into treatment planning and overdenture design for patients with a highly reduced dentition.

New evidence for involvement of the entorhinal region in schizophrenia: a combined MRI volumetric and DTI study

Postmortem examinations and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies suggest involvement of the entorhinal cortex (EC) in schizophrenic psychoses. However, the extent and nature of the possible pathogenetical process underlying the observed alterations of this limbic key region for processing of multimodal sensory information remains unclear. Three-dimensional high-resolution MRI volumetry and evaluation of the regional diffusional anisotropy based on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) were performed on the EC of 15 paranoid schizophrenic patients and 15 closely matched control subjects. In schizophrenic patients, EC volumes showed a slight, but not significant, decrease. However, the anisotropy values, expressed as inter-voxel coherences (COH), were found to be significantly decreased by 17.9% (right side) and 12.5% (left side), respectively, in schizophrenics. Reduction of entorhinal diffusional anisotropy can be hypothesized to be functionally related to disturbances in the perforant path, the principal efferent EC fiber tract supplying the limbic system with neuronal input from multimodal association centers. Combinations of different MRI modalities are a promising approach for the detection and characterization of subtle brain tissue alterations.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Infrared Thermography Enhancements for Concrete Bridge Evaluation

Infrared thermography is a well-recognized non-destructive testing technique for evaluating concrete bridge elements such as bridge decks and piers. However, overcoming some obstacles and limitations are necessary to be able to add this invaluable technique to the bridge inspector's tool box. Infrared thermography is based on collecting radiant temperature and presenting the results as a thermal infrared image. Two methods considered in conducting an infrared thermography test include passive and active. The source of heat is the main difference between these two approaches of infrared thermography testing. Solar energy and ambient temperature change are the main heat sources in conducting a passive infrared thermography test, while active infrared thermography involves generating a temperature gradient using an external source of heat other than sun. Passive infrared thermography testing was conducted on three concrete bridge decks in Michigan. Ground truth information was gathered through coring several locations on each bridge deck to validate the results obtained from the passive infrared thermography test. Challenges associated with data collection and processing using passive infrared thermography are discussed and provide additional evidence to confirm that passive infrared thermography is a promising remote sensing tool for bridge inspections. To improve the capabilities of the infrared thermography technique for evaluation of the underside of bridge decks and bridge girders, an active infrared thermography technique using the surface heating method was developed in the laboratory on five concrete slabs with simulated delaminations. Results from this study demonstrated that active infrared thermography not only eliminates some limitations associated with passive infrared thermography, but also provides information regarding the depth of the delaminations. Active infrared thermography was conducted on a segment of an out-of-service prestressed box beam and cores were extracted from several locations on the beam to validate the results. This study confirms the feasibility of the application of active infrared thermography on concrete bridges and of estimating the size and depth of delaminations. From the results gathered in this dissertation, it was established that applying both passive and active thermography can provide transportation agencies with qualitative and quantitative measures for efficient maintenance and repair decision-making.

Evaluation and stages of surgical innovations

Surgical innovation is an important part of surgical practice. Its assessment is complex because of idiosyncrasies related to surgical practice, but necessary so that introduction and adoption of surgical innovations can derive from evidence-based principles rather than trial and error. A regulatory framework is also desirable to protect patients against the potential harms of any novel procedure. In this first of three Series papers on surgical innovation and evaluation, we propose a five-stage paradigm to describe the development of innovative surgical procedures.

Target difficulty, intra-year target revisions and firm performance: evidence from business units' targets

Target difficulty is often argued to increase performance. While this association is well established in experimental research, empirical evidence in field research is rather mixed. We attempt to explain this inconsistency by analyzing the importance of intra-year target revisions, which are especially prevalent in real-world field settings. Using survey and archival data from 97 firms, we find that firms with more challenging business unit targets revise targets more often, in line with asymmetric, downward target revisions. Results further show that the degree to which targets are revised during a period results in negative effects on firm performance, as the anticipation of revision negatively affects the business unit management’s performance incentives. Additionally, we find that using targets predominantly for either decision-making or control influences the overall performance effects of target revisions. Our findings may partially explain the mixed field study evidence regarding the effects of target difficulty.

Evaluation of pet contact as a risk factor for carriage of multidrug-resistant staphylococci in nursing home residents

BACKGROUND Pets, often used as companionship and for psychological support in the therapy of nursing home residents, have been implicated as reservoirs for antibiotic-resistant bacteria. We investigated the importance of pets as reservoirs of multidrug-resistant (MDR) staphylococci in nursing homes. METHODS We assessed the carriage of MDR staphylococci in pets and in 2 groups of residents, those living in nursing homes with pets and those living without pet contacts. We collected demographic, health status, and human-pet contact data by means of questionnaires. We assessed potential bacteria transmission pathways by investigating physical resident-to-pet contact. RESULTS The observed prevalence of MDR staphylococci carriage was 84/229 (37%) in residents living with pets and 99/216 (46%) in those not living with pets (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4-0.9). Active pet contact was associated with lower carriage of MDR staphylococci (aOR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8). Antibiotic treatment during the previous 3 months was associated with significantly increased risk for MDR carriage in residents (aOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.8-5.7). CONCLUSIONS We found no evidence that the previously reported benefits of pet contact are compromised by the increased risk of carriage of MDR staphylococci in residents associated with interaction with these animals in nursing homes. Thus, contact with pets, always under good hygiene standards, should be encouraged in these settings.

How do indirect measures of evaluation work? Evaluating the inference of prejudice in the Implicit Association Test

There has been significant interest in indirect measures of attitudes like the Implicit Association Test (IAT), presumably because of the possibility of uncovering implicit prejudices. The authors derived a set of qualitative predictions for people's performance in the IAT on the basis of random walk models. These were supported in 3 experiments comparing clearly positive or negative categories to nonwords. They also provided evidence that participants shift their response criterion when doing the IAT. Because of these criterion shifts, a response pattern in the IAT can have multiple causes. Thus, it is not possible to infer a single cause (such as prejudice) from IAT results. A surprising additional result was that nonwords were treated as though they were evaluated more negatively than obviously negative items like insects, suggesting that low familiarity items may generate the pattern of data previously interpreted as evidence for implicit prejudice.