Identification of Francisella tularensis cluster in central and western Europe

We conducted a molecular analysis of Francisella tularensis strains isolated in Switzerland and identified a specific subpopulation belonging to a cluster of F. tularensis subsp. holarctica that is widely dispersed in central and western continental Europe. This subpopulation was present before the tularemia epidemics on the Iberian Peninsula.

Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. METHODS We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (facq, 1/fdur). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. RESULTS The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VEˆacq.dur, (1-POR)×100) best estimates the true VE (VEacq.dur, (1-facq×fdur)×100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VEˆacq.dur first approximates VEacq.dur: if the mean duration of carriage is 1-1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2-3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VEˆacq.dur approximates VEacq.dur. CONCLUSION The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.

Identification of animal Pasteurellaceae by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry

Species of the family Pasteurellaceae play an important role as primary or opportunistic, predominantly respiratory, pathogens in domestic and wild animals. Some of them cause severe disease with high economic losses in commercial animal husbandry. Hence, rapid and accurate differentiation of Pasteurellaceae is important and signifies a particular challenge to diagnostic laboratories. Identification and differentiation of Pasteurellaceae is mostly done using phenotypic tests or genetic identification based on sequence similarity of housekeeping genes, such as the rrs gene encoding the 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA). Both approaches are time consuming, laborious, and costly, therefore often delaying the final diagnosis of disease or epidemics. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry represents an alternative rapid and reliable method for the differentiation of most members of the family Pasteurellaceae. It is able to differentiate within a few minutes the currently known 18 genera and most of the over 60 species and subspecies of Pasteurellaceae including many members encountered in veterinary diagnostic laboratories. A few closely related species and subspecies that cannot be discriminated by MALDI-TOF are easily identified further by complementary simple tests, such as hemolysis done simultaneously or routinely during pathogen isolation.

Hepatitis C: a changing epidemic.

Approximately 3% of the world population is estimated to have a chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and 500,000 individuals die from its consequences yearly. Persons who inject drugs (PWID) bear the majority of the disease burden in high-income countries. Drug substitution programmes have helped reduce HCV transmissions among PWID. However, recent epidemics of sexually transmitted HCV infections in HIV-infected men who have sex with men demonstrated the changing nature of the HCV epidemic. HCV therapy is undergoing a revolution, as new interferon-free, oral treatments eradicate HCV infections in almost all treated patients. As a consequence, the eradication of HCV has become a matter of debate and is becoming an important future public health target. However, for this to be achieved, many challenges need to be addressed, including the poor uptake of HCV testing, the high cost of the new antiviral combinations and the high frequency of re-infections after treatment in some populations.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

Hepatocellular carcinoma and lifestyles.

The majority of hepatocellular carcinoma occurs over pre-existing chronic liver diseases that share cirrhosis as an endpoint. In the last decade, a strong association between lifestyle and hepatocellular carcinoma has become evident. Abundance of energy-rich food and sedentary lifestyles have caused metabolic conditions such as obesity and diabetes mellitus to become global epidemics. Obesity and diabetes mellitus are both tightly linked to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and also increase hepatocellular carcinoma risk independent of cirrhosis. Emerging data suggest that physical activity not only counteracts obesity, diabetes mellitus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, but also reduces cancer risk. Physical activity exerts significant anticancer effects in the absence of metabolic disorders. Here, we present a systematic review on lifestyles and hepatocellular carcinoma.

Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: A nationwide study.

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that infections may be involved and that mini-epidemics thereof could result in space-time clustering of incident cases. Most previous studies support spatio-temporal clustering for leukaemia, while results for other diagnostic groups remain mixed. Few studies have corrected for uneven regional population shifts which can lead to spurious detection of clustering. We examined whether there is space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland identifying cases diagnosed at age <16 years between 1985 and 2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Knox tests were performed on geocoded residence at birth and diagnosis separately for leukaemia, acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL), lymphomas, tumours of the central nervous system, neuroblastomas and soft tissue sarcomas. We used Baker's Max statistic to correct for multiple testing and randomly sampled time-, sex- and age-matched controls from the resident population to correct for uneven regional population shifts. We observed space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia at birth (Baker's Max p = 0.045) but not at diagnosis (p = 0.98). Clustering was strongest for a spatial lag of <1 km and a temporal lag of <2 years (Observed/expected close pairs: 124/98; p Knox test = 0.003). A similar clustering pattern was observed for ALL though overall evidence was weaker (Baker's Max p = 0.13). Little evidence of clustering was found for other diagnostic groups (p > 0.2). Our study suggests that childhood leukaemia tends to cluster in space-time due to an etiologic factor present in early life.

Temporal association between childhood leukaemia and population growth in Swiss municipalities.

The population mixing hypothesis proposes that childhood leukaemia (CL) might be a rare complication of a yet unidentified subclinical infection. Large population influxes into previously isolated rural areas may foster localised epidemics of the postulated infection causing a subsequent increase of CL. While marked population growth after a period of stability was central to the formulation of the hypothesis and to the early studies on population mixing, there is a lack of objective criteria to define such growth patterns. We aimed to determine whether periods of marked population growth coincided with increases in the risk of CL in Swiss municipalities. We identified incident cases of CL aged 0-15 years for the period 1985-2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Annual data on population counts in Swiss municipalities were obtained for 1980-2010. As exposures, we defined (1) cumulative population growth during a 5-year moving time window centred on each year (1985-2010) and (2) periods of 'take-off growth' identified by segmented linear regression. We compared CL incidence across exposure categories using Poisson regression and tested for effect modification by degree of urbanisation. Our study included 1500 incident cases and 2561 municipalities. The incident rate ratio (IRR) comparing the highest to the lowest quintile of 5-year population growth was 1.18 (95 % CI 0.96, 1.46) in all municipalities and 1.33 (95 % CI 0.93, 1.92) in rural municipalities (p value interaction 0.36). In municipalities with take-off growth, the IRR comparing the take-off period (>6 % annual population growth) with the initial period of low or negative growth (<2 %) was 2.07 (95 % CI 0.95, 4.51) overall and 2.99 (1.11, 8.05) in rural areas (p interaction 0.52). Our study provides further support for the population mixing hypothesis and underlines the need to distinguish take-off growth from other growth patterns in future research.

Dengue risk factor distribution in Harris County, Texas

As an important emerging arboviral disease in Texas and throughout the world, dengue fever has the potential to make a re-emergence in the Harris County/Houston metropolitan area. Harris County has seen dengue epidemics in the past. The area has a competent vector, Aedes aegypti, capable of transmission of the virus should it be introduced. It is important to examine areas of highest risk for dengue emergence and transmission in Harris County so that surveillance and educational programs can be properly implemented. This study uses mapping software to visually represent risk factor information with areas of known Ae. aegypti populations. This study focused on known demographic risk factors such as race/ethnicity, place of birth, gender as well as socioeconomic status represented by educational attainment and income. This study found that there are several areas, particularly in central Harris County that are at particular risk for dengue transmission. The findings support the hypothesis that in areas of lower socioeconomic status there were increased populations of foreign born populations, Hispanic populations, and identified locations of a competent vector present. These findings suggest that more specific surveillance of Ae. aegypti, testing of the mosquitoes for dengue virus, and active surveillance for human cases should be implemented in these areas. ^

Emerging arboviruses in Harris County, Texas

Harris County, which includes Houston, Texas, is an endemic and epidemic area for two viruses transmitted by arthropods (arboviruses). These viruses are maintained in cycles involving mosquitoes and wild birds, and transmission to humans is accidental. The majority of human infections is asymptomatic or may result in a flu-like syndrome. However, some infections can result in meningitis or encephalitis. These neuroinvasive infections may cause death, and those who survive may experience serious neurological complications requiring costly and lengthy medical care. The most important arboviruses in terms of morbidity are St. Louis encephalitis (SLEV) and West Nile (WNV) viruses. In fact, Harris County reports more SLEV encephalitis cases than any other county in the U.S. Most arboviral human cases occur from July through September, when mosquitoes are most active. Those at risk for encephalitis and death are the elderly and those with a history of hypertension or immunosuppresion. There is no specific treatment and no human vaccines are commercially available in the U.S. The approach for control of arboviruses in Harris County during epidemics is multidisciplinary and executed by several agencies. It includes surveillance, vector control, and educational messages for the population. Prevention of outbreaks consists of elimination of the vector and its breeding grounds, and practicing personal protective measures to prevent exposure to mosquitoes. ^ Current findings indicate that mosquito-borne viruses other than SLEV and WNV could pose an additional threat for the population. Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) activity has been detected in dogs and sentinel chickens in Houston and surrounding areas. Several serotypes of dengue virus have caused recent outbreaks in south Texas, and some locally-acquired cases have been detected in Houston. Since the clinical presentation of all arboviruses that cause encephalitis is very similar, and current surveillance is focused on detecting SLEV and WNV, there is a possibility that other arboviruses could be present in the area but are not being detected. Additionally, Harris County's ample annual rainfall and flooding problems, warm weather, multiple mosquito species, local and migrating birds that are susceptible to arboviral infection, and a constant flow of goods and travelers from many parts of the world could favor the emergence or re-emergence of other arboviruses. ^ The aims of this project were to determine if other arboviruses were circulating in the county, to assess the knowledge and attitudes about mosquito-borne viruses in a sample of the population, and to conduct an analysis of the initial WNV epidemic in Harris County. Through the retrospective analysis of clinical specimens collected during the 2002-2005 epidemic seasons, serologic evidence of dengue infection was detected suggesting the possibility that this virus may be co-circulating with SLEV and WNV. A cross-sectional survey revealed high awareness about arboviruses but not a consistent use of protective measures to avoid mosquitoes. The third component for this project included a retrospective review and geographical analysis of the 2002 WNV epidemic. ^ Overall, this study documented valuable information about the dengue virus, a potentially emerging arbovirus in Texas, revealed the need for more educational preventative programs, reinforced the value of mosquito and avian surveillance, and indicated the importance of continuing to investigate the factors that contribute to the development of outbreaks. ^