966 resultados para Environmental variability


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The purpose of this research was to investigate the influence of elevation and other terrain characteristics over the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. A comparative analysis was conducted between several methods of spatial interpolations using mean monthly precipitation values in order to select the best. Following those previous results it was possible to fit an Artificial Neural Network model for interpolation of monthly precipitation values for a period of 20 years, with input values such as longitude, latitude, elevation, four geomorphologic characteristics and anchored by seven weather stations, it reached a high correlation coefficient (r=0.85). This research demonstrated a strong influence of elevation and other geomorphologic variables over the spatial distribution of precipitation and the agreement that there are nonlinear relationships. This model will be used to fill gaps in time-series of monthly precipitation, and to generate maps of spatial distribution of monthly precipitation at a resolution of 1km2.

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Estuaries are dynamic on many spatial and temporal scales. Distinguishing effects of unpredictable events from cyclical patterns can be challenging but important to predict the influence of press and pulse drivers in the face of climate change. Diatom assemblages respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions and characterize change on multiple time scales. The goals of this research were to 1) characterize diatom assemblages in the Charlotte Harbor watershed, their relationships with water quality parameters, and how they change in response to climate; and 2) use assemblages in sediment cores to interpret past climate changes and tropical cyclone activity. ^ Diatom assemblages had strong relationships with salinity and nutrient concentrations, and a quantitative tool was developed to reconstruct past values of these parameters. Assemblages were stable between the wet and dry seasons, and were more similar to each other than to assemblages found following a tropical cyclone. Diatom assemblages following the storm showed a decrease in dispersion among sites, a pattern that was consistent on different spatial scales but may depend on hydrological management regimes. ^ Analysis of sediment cores from two southwest Florida estuaries showed that locally-developed diatom inference models can be applied with caution on regional scales. Large-scale climate changes were suggested by environmental reconstructions in both estuaries, but with slightly different temporal pacing. Estimates of salinity and nutrient concentrations suggested that major hydrological patterns changed at approximately 5.5 and 3 kyrs BP. A highly temporally-resolved sediment core from Charlotte Harbor provided evidence for past changes that correspond with known climate records. Diatom assemblages had significant relationships with the three-year average index values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Assemblages that predicted low salinity and high total phosphorus also had the lowest dispersion and corresponded with some major storms in the known record, which together may provide a proxy for evidence of severe storms in the paleoecological record. ^

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Marine phytoplankton can evolve rapidly when confronted with aspects of climate change because of their large population sizes and fast generation times. Despite this, the importance of environment fluctuations, a key feature of climate change, has received little attention-selection experiments with marine phytoplankton are usually carried out in stable environments and use single or few representatives of a species, genus or functional group. Here we investigate whether and by how much environmental fluctuations contribute to changes in ecologically important phytoplankton traits such as C:N ratios and cell size, and test the variability of changes in these traits within the globally distributed species Ostreococcus. We have evolved 16 physiologically distinct lineages of Ostreococcus at stable high CO2 (1031±87?µatm CO2, SH) and fluctuating high CO2 (1012±244?µatm CO2, FH) for 400 generations. We find that although both fluctuation and high CO2 drive evolution, FH-evolved lineages are smaller, have reduced C:N ratios and respond more strongly to further increases in CO2 than do SH-evolved lineages. This indicates that environmental fluctuations are an important factor to consider when predicting how the characteristics of future phytoplankton populations will have an impact on biogeochemical cycles and higher trophic levels in marine food webs.

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The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

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We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 °C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ?D 'unknown' and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

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A high-resolution continuous record of diatom census counts and diatom specific biomarkers in sediment core NBP0101-JPC24 allows assessment of oceanographic and environmental conditions in eastern Prydz Bay during the deglaciation (11 100-9000 cal yr BP) at decadal timescale. Our study improves previous snapshots investigations based on resin-embedded thin sections and presents a new proxy that compliments the diatom census counts. Our results suggest that the ice sheet retreat over the core site is dated at ~11 100 cal yr BP, setting the onset of local deglaciation and subsequent open marine conditions. The glacial retreat in Prydz Bay is due to global warming initiated at 18 cal ka BP and the regional development of the Prydz Bay cyclonic gyre. Our results further demonstrate that the deglaciation in eastern Prydz Bay can be separated in four phases: the first between 11 100 and 10 900 cal yr BP when the ice shelf was proximal and sea ice was almost perennial; the second and the third phases between 10 900-10 400 cal yr BP and 10 400-9900 cal yr BP, respectively, when the ice shelf retreated and seasonal sea ice cycle consequently developed promoting warmer water to pump into the bay within the gyre, which in turn forced the ice shelf recession and the yearly sea ice cycle establishment; and the fourth between 9900 and 9000 cal yr BP when Holocene condition were set with a recurrent seasonal sea ice cycle and a well established Prydz Bay gyre.

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A multicentennial and absolutely-dated shell-based chronology for the marine environment of the North Icelandic Shelf has been constructed using annual growth increments in the shell of the long-lived bivalve clam Arctica islandica. The region from which the shells were collected is close to the North Atlantic Polar Front and is highly sensitive to the varying influences of Atlantic and Arctic water masses. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths, and although the correlations between the growth increment indices and regional sea surface temperatures are significant at the 95% confidence level, they are low (r ~ 0.2), indicating that a more complex combination of environmental forcings is driving growth. Remarkable longevities of individual animals are apparent in the increment-width series used in the chronology, with several animals having lifetimes in excess of 300 years and one, at 507 years, being the longest-lived non-colonial animal so far reported whose age at death can be accurately determined. The sample depth is at least three shells after AD 1175, and the time series has been extended back to AD 649 with a sample depth of one or two by the addition of two further series, thus providing a 1357-year archive of dated shell material. The statistical and spectral characteristics of the chronology are investigated by using two different methods of removing the age-related trend in shell growth. Comparison with other proxy archives from the same region reveals several similarities in variability on multidecadal timescales, particularly during the period surrounding the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age.

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This article will review major features of the 'giant' Cape Blanc filament off Mauritania with regard to the transport of chlorophyll and organic carbon from the shelf to the open ocean. Within the filament, chlorophyll is transported about 400 km offshore. Modelled particle distributions along a zonal transect at 21°N showed that particles with a sinking velocity of 5 m d**-1 are advected offshore by up to 600 km in subsurface particle clouds generally located between 400 m and 800 m water depth, forming an Intermediate Nepheloid Layer (INL). It corresponds to the depth of the oxygen minimum zone. Heavier particles with a sinking velocity of 30 m d**-1 are transported from the shelf within the Bottom Layer (BL) of more than 1000 m thickness, largely following the topography of the bottom slope. The particles advected within the BL contribute to the enhanced winter-spring mass fluxes collected at the open-ocean mesotrophic sediment trap site CB-13 (200 nm offshore), due to a long distance advection in deeper waters. The lateral contribution to the deep sediment trap in winter-spring is estimated to be 63% and 72% for organic carbon and total mass, respectively, whereas the lateral input for both components on an annual basis is estimated to be in the order of 15%. Biogenic opal increases almost fivefold from the upper to the lower mesotrophic CB-13 trap, also pointing to an additional source for biogenic silica from eutrophic coastal waters. Blooms obviously sink in smaller, probably mesoscale-sized patches with variable settling rates, depending on the type of aggregated particles and their ballast content. Generally, particle sinking rates are exceptionally high off NW Africa. Very high chlorophyll values and a large size of the Cape Blanc filament in 1998-1999 are also documented in enhanced total mass and organic carbon fluxes. An increasing trend in satellite chlorophyll concentrations and the size of the Cape Blanc filament between 1997 and 2008 as observed for other coastal upwelling areas is not documented.

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The Mediterranean Sea constitutes a unique environment to study cold-seep ecosystems due to the presence of different geodynamic settings, from an active margin along the Mediterranean Ridge (MR) to a passive margin in the Nile Deep-Sea Fan (NDSF). We attempted to identify the structure of benthic communities associated with the Napoli and Amsterdam mud volcanoes (MVs) located on the MR and to establish the links between faunal distribution and environmental conditions at different spatial scales. Comparison between the 2 MVs revealed that the faunal distribution seemed to be mainly controlled by the characteristics of the microhabitats. On both geological structures, the variability between the different microhabitats was higher than the variability observed between replicates of the same microhabitat, and the distribution of macro-fauna was apparently linked to gradients in physico-chemical conditions. The peripheral sites from Napoli were generally more oxygenated and harboured lower species richness than the active sites. The reduced sediment microhabitat from Amsterdam presented the highest methane concentrations and was mainly colonised by symbiont-bearing vesicomyid bivalves and heterotrophic dorvilleid polychaetes. Overall, a higher taxonomic diversity was observed on Napoli. Sub-stratum type was hypothesised to be the second factor influencing faunal distribution. The results of this study highlight the high heterogeneity of faunal communities associated with seep ecosystems within this region and the need to pursue investigations at various spatial and temporal scales.

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Environmental changes are some of the factors that affect fisheries and biological characteristics of fishes. The African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) has biological characteristics that enable it to persist under various stressful environmental conditions. However, few studies have examined how the African catfish responds to conditions created by a changing climate. The study examined some of the fishery and biological characteristics of African catfish in Lake Wamala (Uganda) to provide an understanding of their response to changing climatic conditions using data for the period 1950 - 2013. Temperature around the lake increased by 0.02ºC/year since 1980, commensurate with the regional trend, while rainfall was above average since 1996, except in 2004 and 2008. Lake depth was strongly positively correlated with rainfall (r =0.83, n= 6, p<0.05) up to 2000, after which, lake depth decreased amidst increase in rainfall. The contribution of African catfish increased from 20% to 85% and 17% to 78% respectively to commercial and experimental catches respectively between 1975 and 2013 despite the decrease in lake depth. The modal total length, condition factor, food, and fecundity did not change. Only size at first maturity decreased from 37.5 to 30 cm TL in females and 39.5 to 34.2 cm TL in males between 1999/2000 and 2012/2013. The biological characteristics of the African catfish were comparable with those of the same species in other lakes and remained relatively stable. The results suggested that the African catfish has the capacity to persist and/or adjust appropriately under conditions created by climate variability and change, and if properly managed, can sustain the fisheries of Lake Wamala.

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During the late Miocene, exchange between the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean changed dramatically, culminating in the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC). Understanding Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange at that time could answer the enigmatic question of how so much salt built up within the Mediterranean, while furthering the development of a framework for future studies attempting to understand how changes may have impacted global thermohaline circulation. Due to their association with specific water masses at different scales, radiogenic Sr, Pb, and Nd isotope records were generated from various archives contained within marine deposits to endeavour to understand better late Miocene Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange. The archives used include foraminiferal calcite (Sr), fish teeth and bone (Nd), dispersed authigenic ferromanganese oxyhydroxides (Nd, Pb), and a ferromanganese crust (Pb). The primary focus is on sediments preserved at one end of the Betic corridor, a gateway that once connected the Mediterranean to the Atlantic through southern Spain, although other locations are investigated. The Betic gateway terminated within several marginal sub-basins before entering the Western Mediterranean; one of these is the Sorbas Basin, a well-studied location whose sediments have been astronomically tuned at high temporal resolution, providing the necessary age control for sub-precessional resolution records. Since the climatic history of the Mediterranean is strongly controlled by precessional changes in regional climate, the aim was to produce records at high (sub-precessional) temporal resolution, to be able to observe clearly any precessional cyclicity driven by regional climate which could be superimposed over longer trends. This goal was achieved for all records except the ferromanganese crust record. The 87Sr/86Sr isotope record (Ch. 3) shows precessional frequency excursions away from the global seawater curve. As precessional frequency oscillations are unexpected for this setting, a numerical box model was used to determine the mechanisms causing the excursions. To enable parameterisation of model variables, regional Sr characteristics, data from general circulation model HadCM3L, and new benthic foraminiferal assemblage data are employed. The model results imply that the Sorbas Basin likely had a positive hydrologic budget in the late Miocene, very different to that of today. Moreover, the model indicates that the mechanism controlling the Sr isotope ratio of Sorbas Basin seawater was not restriction, but a lack of density-driven exchange with the Mediterranean. Beyond improving our understanding of how marginal Mediterranean sub-basins may evolve different isotope signatures, these results have implications for astronomical tuning and stratigraphy in the region, findings which are crucial considering the geological and climatic history of the late Miocene Mediterranean is based entirely on marginal deposits. An improved estimate for the Nd isotope signature of late Miocene Mediterranean Outflow (MO) was determined by comparing Nd isotope signatures preserved in the deeper Alborán Sea at ODP Site 978 with literature data as well as the signature preserved in the Sorbas Basin (Ch. 4; -9.34 to -9.92 ± 0.37 εNd(t)). It was also inferred that it is unlikely that Nd isotopes can be used reliably to track changes in circulation within the shallow settings characteristic of the Mediterranean-Atlantic connections; this is significant in light of a recent publication documenting corridor closure using Nd isotopes. Both conclusions will prove useful for future studies attempting to understand changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange. Excursions to high values, with precessional frequency, are also observed in the radiogenic Pb isotope record for the Sorbas Basin (Ch. 5). Widening the scope to include locations further away from the gateways, records were produced for late Miocene sections on Sicily and Northern Italy, and similar precessional frequency cyclicity was observed in the Pb isotope records for these sites as well. Comparing these records to proxies for Saharan dust and available whole rock data indicates that, while further analysis is necessary to draw strong conclusions, enhanced dust production during insolation minima may be driving the observed signal. These records also have implications for astronomical tuning; peaks in Pb isotope records driven by Saharan dust may be easier to connect directly to the insolation cycle, providing improved astronomical tuning points. Finally, a Pb isotope record derived using in-situ laser ablation performed on ferromanganese crust 3514-6 from the Lion Seamount, located west of Gibraltar within the MO plume, has provided evidence that plume depth shifted during the Pliocene. The record also suggests that Pb isotopes may not be a suitable proxy for changes in late Miocene Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange, since the Pb isotope signatures of regional water masses are too similar. To develop this record, the first published instance of laser ablation derived 230Thexcess measurements are combined with 10Be dating.

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BACKGROUND:Tackling inequalities in overweight, obesity and related determinants has become a top priority for the European research and policy agendas. Although it has been established that such inequalities accumulate from early childhood onward, they have not been studied extensively in children. The current article discusses the results of an explorative analysis for the identification of inequalities in behaviours and their determinants between groups with high and low socio-economic status. METHODS: This study is part of the Epode for the Promotion of Health Equity (EPHE) evaluation study, the overall aim of which is to assess the impact and sustainability of EPODE methodology to diminish inequalities in childhood obesity and overweight. Seven community-based programmes from different European countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Greece, Portugal, Romania, The Netherlands) participate in the EPHE study. In each of the communities, children aged 6-8 years participated, resulting in a total sample of 1266 children and their families. A parental self-administrated questionnaire was disseminated in order to assess the socio-economic status of the household, selected energy balance-related behaviours (1. fruit and vegetable consumption; 2. soft drink/ fruit juices and water consumption; 3. screen time and 4. sleep duration) of the children and associated family environmental determinants. The Mann-Whitney U test and Pearson's chi-square test were used to test differences between the low and high education groups. The country-specific median was chosen as the cut-off point to determine the educational level, given the different average educational level in every country. RESULTS: Children with mothers of relatively high educational level consumed fruits and vegetables more frequently than their peers of low socio-economic status. The latter group of children had a higher intake of fruit juices and/or soft drinks and had higher screen time. Parental rules and home availability were consistently different between the two socio-economic groups in our study in all countries. However we did not find a common pattern for all behaviours and the variability across the countries was large. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are indicative of socio-economic inequalities in our samples, although the variability across the countries was large. The effectiveness of interventions aimed at chancing parental rules and behaviour on health inequalities should be studied.

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Coastal lagoons are semi-isolated ecosystems exposed to wide fluctuations of environmental conditions and showing habitat fragmentation. These features may play an important role in separating species into different populations, even at small spatial scales. In this study, we evaluate the concordance between mitochondrial (previous published data) and nuclear data analyzing the genetic variability of Pomatoschistus marmoratus in five localities, inside and outside the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain) using eight microsatellites. High genetic diversity and similar levels of allele richness were observed across all loci and localities, although significant genic and genotypic differentiation was found between populations inside and outside the lagoon. In contrast to the FST values obtained from previous mitochondrial DNA analyses (control region), the microsatellite data exhibited significant differentiation among samples inside the Mar Menor and between lagoonal and marine samples. This pattern was corroborated using Cavalli-Sforza genetic distances. The habitat fragmentation inside the coastal lagoon and among lagoon and marine localities could be acting as a barrier to gene flow and contributing to the observed genetic structure. Our results from generalized additive models point a significant link between extreme lagoonal environmental conditions (mainly maximum salinity) and P. marmoratus genetic composition. Thereby, these environmental features could be also acting on genetic structure of coastal lagoon populations of P. marmoratus favoring their genetic divergence. The mating strategy of P. marmoratus could be also influencing our results obtained from mitochondrial and nuclear DNA. Therefore, a special consideration must be done in the selection of the DNA markers depending on the reproductive strategy of the species.

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The complex three-dimensional (3-D) structure of tropical forests generates a diversity of light environments for canopy and understory trees. Understanding diurnal and seasonal changes in light availability is critical for interpreting measurements of net ecosystem exchange and improving ecosystem models. Here, we used the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model to simulate leaf absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (lAPAR) for an Amazon forest. The 3-D model scene was developed from airborne lidar data, and local measurements of leaf reflectance, aerosols, and PAR were used to model lAPAR under direct and diffuse illumination conditions. Simulated lAPAR under clear-sky and cloudy conditions was corrected for light saturation effects to estimate light utilization, the fraction of lAPAR available for photosynthesis. Although the fraction of incoming PAR absorbed by leaves was consistent throughout the year (0.80?0.82), light utilization varied seasonally (0.67?0.74), with minimum values during the Amazon dry season. Shadowing and light saturation effects moderated potential gains in forest productivity from increasing PAR during dry-season months when the diffuse fraction from clouds and aerosols was low. Comparisons between DART and other models highlighted the role of 3-D forest structure to account for seasonal changes in light utilization. Our findings highlight how directional illumination and forest 3-D structure combine to influence diurnal and seasonal variability in light utilization, independent of further changes in leaf area, leaf age, or environmental controls on canopy photosynthesis. Changing illumination geometry constitutes an alternative biophysical explanation for observed seasonality in Amazon forest productivity without changes in canopy phenology.