Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP) and export production (EP) of particulate organic carbon (POC). Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR) are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation). Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006) with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST) being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL) also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST) and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

Efforts and Models of Education for Parents: the Danish Approach

The report examines the relationship between day care institutions, schools and so called “parents unfamiliar to education” as well as the relationship between the institutions. With in Danish public and professional discourse concepts like parents unfamiliar to education are usually referring to environments, parents or families with either no or just very restricted experience of education except for the basic school (folkeskole). The “grand old man” of Danish educational research, Prof. Em. Erik Jørgen Hansen, defines the concept as follows: Parents who are distant from or not familiar with education, are parents without tradition of education and by that fact they are not able to contribute constructively in order to back up their own children during their education. Many teachers and pedagogues are not used to that term; they rather prefer concepts like “socially exposed” or “socially disadvantaged” parents or social classes or strata. The report does not only focus on parents who are not capable to support the school achievements of their children, since a low level of education is usually connected with social disadvantage. Such parents are often not capable of understanding and meeting the demands from side of the school when sending their children to school. They lack the competencies or the necessary competence of action. For the moment being much attention is done from side of the Ministries of Education and Social Affairs (recently renamed Ministry of Welfare) in order to create equal possibilities for all children. Many kinds of expertise (directions, counsels, researchers, etc.) have been more than eager to promote recommendations aiming at achieving the ambitious goal: 2015 95% of all young people should complement a full education (classes 10.-12.). Research results are pointing out the importance of increased participation of parents. In other word the agenda is set for ‘parents’ education’. It seems necessary to underline that Danish welfare policy has been changing rather radical. The classic model was an understanding of welfare as social assurance and/or as social distribution – based on social solidarity. The modern model looks like welfare as social service and/or social investment. This means that citizens are changing role – from user and/or citizen to consumer and/or investor. The Danish state is in correspondence with decisions taken by the government investing in a national future shaped by global competition. The new models of welfare – “service” and “investment” – imply severe changes in hitherto known concepts of family life, relationship between parents and children etc. As an example the investment model points at a new implementation of the relationship between social rights and the rights of freedom. The service model has demonstrated that weakness that the access to qualified services in the field of health or education is becoming more and more dependent of the private purchasing power. The weakness of the investment model is that it represents a sort of “The Winner takes it all” – since a political majority is enabled to make agendas in societal fields former protected by the tripartite power and the rights of freedom of the citizens. The outcome of the Danish development seems to be an establishment of a political governed public service industry which on one side are capable of competing on market conditions and on the other are able being governed by contracts. This represents a new form of close linking of politics, economy and professional work. Attempts of controlling education, pedagogy and thereby the population are not a recent invention. In European history we could easily point at several such experiments. The real news is the linking between political priorities and exercise of public activities by economic incentives. By defining visible goals for the public servants, by introducing measurement of achievements and effects, and by implementing a new wage policy depending on achievements and/or effects a new system of accountability is manufactured. The consequences are already perceptible. The government decides to do some special interventions concerning parents, children or youngsters, the public servants on municipality level are instructed to carry out their services by following a manual, and the parents are no longer protected by privacy. Protection of privacy and minority is no longer a valuable argumentation to prevent further interventions in people’s life (health, food, school, etc.). The citizens are becoming objects of investment, also implying that people are investing in their own health, education, and family. This means that investments in changes of life style and development of competences go hand in hand. The below mentioned programmes are conditioned by this shift.

Dose–effect relationship in routine outpatient psychotherapy: Does treatment duration matter?

Objective: There is an ongoing debate concerning how outcome variables change during the course of psychotherapy. We compared the dose–effect model, which posits diminishing effects of additional sessions in later treatment phases, against a model that assumes a linear and steady treatment progress through termination. Method: Session-by-session outcome data of 6,375 outpatients were analyzed, and participants were categorized according to treatment length. Linear and log-linear (i.e., negatively accelerating) latent growth curve models (LGCMs) were estimated and compared for different treatment length categories. Results: When comparing the fit of the various models, the log-linear LGCMs assuming negatively accelerating treatment progress consistently outperformed the linear models irre- spective of treatment duration. The rate of change was found to be inversely related to the length of treatment. Conclusion: As proposed by the dose–effect model, the expected course of improvement in psychotherapy appears to follow a negatively accelerated pattern of change, irrespective of the duration of the treatment. However, our results also suggest that the rate of change is not constant across various treatment lengths. As proposed by the “good enough level” model, longer treatments are associated with less rapid rates of change.

Social relationship correlates of major depressive disorder and depressive symptoms in Switzerland: nationally representative cross sectional study

BACKGROUND The quality and quantity of social relationships are associated with depression but there is less evidence regarding which aspects of social relationship are most predictive. We evaluated the relative magnitude and independence of the association of four social relationship domains with major depressive disorder and depressive symptoms. METHODS We analyzed a cross-sectional telephone interview and postal survey of a probability sample of adults living in Switzerland (N = 12,286). Twelve-month major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview over the telephone using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The postal survey assessed depressive symptoms as well as variables representing emotional support, tangible support, social integration, and loneliness. RESULTS Each individual social relationship domain was associated with both outcome measures, but in multivariate models being lonely and perceiving unmet emotional support had the largest and most consistent associations across depression outcomes (incidence rate ratios ranging from 1.55-9.97 for loneliness and from 1.23-1.40 for unmet support, p's < 0.05). All social relationship domains except marital status were independently associated with depressive symptoms whereas only loneliness and unmet support were associated with depressive disorder. CONCLUSIONS Perceived quality and frequency of social relationships are associated with clinical depression and depressive symptoms across a wide adult age spectrum. This study extends prior work linking loneliness to depression by showing that a broad range of social relationship domains are associated with psychological well-being.

Relationship between threshold and suprathreshold perception of position and stereoscopic depth.

We seek to determine the relationship between threshold and suprathreshold perception for position offset and stereoscopic depth perception under conditions that elevate their respective thresholds. Two threshold-elevating conditions were used: (1) increasing the interline gap and (2) dioptric blur. Although increasing the interline gap increases position (Vernier) offset and stereoscopic disparity thresholds substantially, the perception of suprathreshold position offset and stereoscopic depth remains unchanged. Perception of suprathreshold position offset also remains unchanged when the Vernier threshold is elevated by dioptric blur. We show that such normalization of suprathreshold position offset can be attributed to the topographical-map-based encoding of position. On the other hand, dioptric blur increases the stereoscopic disparity thresholds and reduces the perceived suprathreshold stereoscopic depth, which can be accounted for by a disparity-computation model in which the activities of absolute disparity encoders are multiplied by a Gaussian weighting function that is centered on the horopter. Overall, the statement "equal suprathreshold perception occurs in threshold-elevated and unelevated conditions when the stimuli are equally above their corresponding thresholds" describes the results better than the statement "suprathreshold stimuli are perceived as equal when they are equal multiples of their respective threshold values."

Crossing borders: Ethnic minorities matter? A meta analytic examionation of the alliance-outcome relationship

Objectives: The purpose of this meta analysis was to examine the moderating impact of substance use disorder as inclusion/exclusion criterion as well as the percentage of racial/ethnic minorities on the strength of the alliance-outcome relationship in psychotherapy. It was hypothesized that the presence of a dsm axis i substance use disorders as a criterion and the presence of racial/ethnic minority as a psychosocial indicator are confounded client factors reducing the relationship between alliance and outcome. Methods: A random effects restricted maximum-likelihood estimator was used for omnibus and moderator models (k = 94). results: the presence of (a) substance use disorder and, (b) racial/ethnic minorities (overall and specific to african americans) partially moderated the alliance-outcome correlation. The percentage of substance use disorders and racial/ethnic minority status was highly correlated. Conclusions: Socio-cultural contextual variables should be considered along with dsm axis i diagnosis of substance use disorders in analyzing and interpreting mechanisms of change.

A study of the relationship between physical activity and cardiovascular fitness and coronary heart disease risk factors in female adolescents

The association of measures of physical activity with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in children, especially those for atherosclerosis, is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness with blood lipids and lipoproteins in pre-adolescent and adolescent girls.^ The study population was comprised of 131 girls aged 9 to 16 years who participated in the Children's Nutrition Research Center's Adolescent Study. The dependent variables, blood lipids and lipoproteins, were measured by standard techniques. The independent variables were physical activity measured as the difference between total energy expenditure (TEE) and basal metabolic rate (BMR), and cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg). TEE was measured by the doubly-labeled water (DLW) method, and BMR by whole-room calorimetry. Cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg), was measured on a motorized treadmill. The potential confounding variables were sexual maturation (Tanner breast stage), ethnic group, body fat percent, and dietary variables. A systematic strategy for data analysis was used to isolate the effects of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness on blood lipids, beginning with assessment of confounding and interaction. Next, from regression models predicting each blood lipid and controlling for covariables, hypotheses were evaluated by the direction and value of the coefficients for physical activity and cardiovascular fitness.^ The main result was that cardiovascular fitness appeared to be more strongly associated with blood lipids than physical activity. An interaction between cardiovascular fitness and sexual maturation indicated that the effect of cardiovascular fitness on most blood lipids was dependent on the stage of sexual maturation.^ A difference of 760 kcal/d physical activity (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile of physical activity) was associated with negligible differences in blood lipids. In contrast, a difference in 10 ml/min/kg of VO$\rm\sb{2max}$ or cardiovascular fitness (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile in cardiovascular fitness) in the early stages of sexual maturation was associated with an average positive difference of 15 mg/100 ml ApoA-1 and 10 mg/100 ml HDL-C. ^

Dominance and the maintenance of polymorphism in multiallelic migration-selection models with two demes

The maintenance of genetic variation in a spatially heterogeneous environment has been one of the main research themes in theoretical population genetics. Despite considerable progress in understanding the consequences of spatially structured environments on genetic variation, many problems remain unsolved. One of them concerns the relationship between the number of demes, the degree of dominance, and the maximum number of alleles that can be maintained by selection in a subdivided population. In this work, we study the potential of maintaining genetic variation in a two-deme model with deme-independent degree of intermediate dominance, which includes absence of G x E interaction as a special case. We present a thorough numerical analysis of a two-deme three-allele model, which allows us to identify dominance and selection patterns that harbor the potential for stable triallelic equilibria. The information gained by this approach is then used to construct an example in which existence and asymptotic stability of a fully polymorphic equilibrium can be proved analytically. Noteworthy, in this example the parameter range in which three alleles can coexist is maximized for intermediate migration rates. Our results can be interpreted in a specialist-generalist context and (among others) show when two specialists can coexist with a generalist in two demes if the degree of dominance is deme independent and intermediate. The dominance relation between the generalist allele and the specialist alleles play a decisive role. We also discuss linear selection on a quantitative trait and show that G x E interaction is not necessary for the maintenance of more than two alleles in two demes.

Motive-Oriented Psychotherapeutic Relationship Facing a Patient Presenting with Narcissistic Personality Disorder: A Case Study

Motive-oriented therapeutic relationship (MOTHER), a prescriptive concept based on an integrative form of case formulation, the Plan Analysis (PA) method (Caspar, in: Eells (ed.), Handbook of psychotherapy case formulations, 2007), has shown to be of particular relevance for the treatment of patients presenting with personality disorders, in particular contributing to better therapeutic outcome and to a more constructive development of the therapeutic alliance over time (Kramer et al., J Nerv Ment Dis 199:244–250, 2011). Several therapy models refer to MOTHER as intervention principle with regard to borderline and Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) (Sachse et al., Clarification-oriented psychotherapy of narcissistic personality disorder, 2011; Caspar and Berger, in: Dulz et al. (eds.), Handbuch der Borderline-Störungen, 2011). The present case study discusses the case of Mark, a 40-year-old patient presenting with NPD, along with anxious, depressive and anger problems. This patient underwent a seven-session long pre-therapy process, based on psychiatric and psychotherapeutic principles complemented with PA and MOTHER, in preparation for further treatment. MOTHER will be illustrated with patient–therapist verbatim from session 4 and the links between MOTHER and confrontation techniques will be discussed in the context of process-outcome hypotheses, in particular the effect of MOTHER on symptom reduction.

Elucidating the Functional Relationship Between Working Memory Capacity and Psychometric Intelligence: A Fixed-Links Modeling Approach for Experimental Repeated-Measures Designs

Numerous studies reported a strong link between working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (Gf), although views differ in respect to how close these two constructs are related to each other. In the present study, we used a WMC task with five levels of task demands to assess the relationship between WMC and Gf by means of a new methodological approach referred to as fixed-links modeling. Fixed-links models belong to the family of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and are of particular interest for experimental, repeated-measures designs. With this technique, processes systematically varying across task conditions can be disentangled from processes unaffected by the experimental manipulation. Proceeding from the assumption that experimental manipulation in a WMC task leads to increasing demands on WMC, the processes systematically varying across task conditions can be assumed to be WMC-specific. Processes not varying across task conditions, on the other hand, are probably independent of WMC. Fixed-links models allow for representing these two kinds of processes by two independent latent variables. In contrast to traditional CFA where a common latent variable is derived from the different task conditions, fixed-links models facilitate a more precise or purified representation of the WMC-related processes of interest. By using fixed-links modeling to analyze data of 200 participants, we identified a non-experimental latent variable, representing processes that remained constant irrespective of the WMC task conditions, and an experimental latent variable which reflected processes that varied as a function of experimental manipulation. This latter variable represents the increasing demands on WMC and, hence, was considered a purified measure of WMC controlled for the constant processes. Fixed-links modeling showed that both the purified measure of WMC (β = .48) as well as the constant processes involved in the task (β = .45) were related to Gf. Taken together, these two latent variables explained the same portion of variance of Gf as a single latent variable obtained by traditional CFA (β = .65) indicating that traditional CFA causes an overestimation of the effective relationship between WMC and Gf. Thus, fixed-links modeling provides a feasible method for a more valid investigation of the functional relationship between specific constructs.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Effect sizes and standardization in neighbourhood models of forest stands: potential biases and misinterpretations

Effects of conspecific neighbours on survival and growth of trees have been found to be related to species abundance. Both positive and negative relationships may explain observed abundance patterns. Surprisingly, it is rarely tested whether such relationships could be biased or even spurious due to transforming neighbourhood variables or influences of spatial aggregation, distance decay of neighbour effects and standardization of effect sizes. To investigate potential biases, communities of 20 identical species were simulated with log-series abundances but without species-specific interactions. No relationship of conspecific neighbour effects on survival or growth with species abundance was expected. Survival and growth of individuals was simulated in random and aggregated spatial patterns using no, linear, or squared distance decay of neighbour effects. Regression coefficients of statistical neighbourhood models were unbiased and unrelated to species abundance. However, variation in the number of conspecific neighbours was positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformations of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Consequently, effect sizes and standardized regression coefficients, often used in model fitting across large numbers of species, were also positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformation of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Tests using randomized tree positions and identities provide the best benchmarks by which to critically evaluate relationships of effect sizes or standardized regression coefficients with tree species abundance. This will better guard against potential misinterpretations.

Global models of planet formation and evolution

Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.

The Relationship Among Resilience, Forgiveness, and Anger Expression in Adolescents

This study was designed to investigate and describe the relationship among resilience, forgiveness and anger expression in adolescents. The purpose of the study was to explore whether certain adolescent resiliencies significantly related to positive or negative affective, behavioral, or cognitive levels of forgiveness and certain types of anger expression in adolescents. This study also investigated whether there were certain adolescent resiliencies and types of forgiveness that can predict lower levels of negative anger expression in adolescents. This research was built on two conceptual models: Wolin and Wolin's (1993) Challenge Model and the Forgiveness Process Model (Enright & Human Development Study Group, 1991). It was based on a quantitative, single-subject correlational research design. A multiple regression analysis was also used to explore possible effects of resilience and forgiveness on anger expression in adolescents. In addition, two demographic variables, Age and Gender, were examined for possible effects on anger expression. Data were gathered from a convenience sample sample of 70 students in three Maine public high schools using three separate assessment instruments: the Adolescent Resiliency Attitudes Scale (ARAS), the Adolescent Version of the Enright Forgiveness Inventory (EFI), and the Adolescent Anger Rating Scale (AARS). Correlational analyses were done on the scales and subscales of these surveys. Significant relationships were found between several adolescent resiliencies and forms of forgiveness as well as between some adolescent resiliencies and types of anger expression. The data indicated that Total Resiliency significantly correlated with Total Forgiveness as well as Total Anger. The findings also identified particular adolescent resiliencies that significantly predicted types of anger expression, while forgiveness did not predict types of anger expression. The data revealed that Age and Gender had no significant affect on anger expression. These findings suggest that the constructs of adolescent resilience and forgiveness have commonalities that can influence how adolescents express anger, and further suggest that intervention and prevention programs expand their focus to incorporate forgiveness skills. The findings from this study can provide critical information to counselors, therapists, and other helping professionals working with adolescents, on approaches to designing and implementing therapy modalities or developmental school guidance programs for adolescents.

Relationship of Turfgrass Growth and Quality to Soil Nitrate Desorbed from Anion Exchange Membranes

Anion exchange membranes (AEMs) are a potential method for determining the plant available N status of soils; however, their capacity for use with turfgrass has not been researched extensively. The main objective of this experiment was to determine the relationship between soil nitrate desorbed from AEMs and growth response and quality of turfgrass managed as a residential lawn. Two field experiments were conducted with a bluegrass-ryegrass-fescue mixture receiving four rates of N fertilizer (0, 98, 196, and 392 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) with clippings returned or removed. The soils at the two sites were a Paxton fine sandy loam (coarse-loamy, mixed, active, mesic Oxyaquic Dystrudepts) and a variant of a Hinckley gravelly sandy loam (sandy-skeletal, mixed, mesic Typic Udorthents). Anion exchange membranes were inserted into plots and exchanged weekly during the growing seasons of 1998 and 1999. Nitrate-N was desorbed from AEMs and quantified. As N fertilization rates increased, desorbed NO3-N increased. The relationship of desorbed NO3-N from AEMs to clipping yield and turfgrass quality was characterized using quadratic response plateau (QRP) and Cate-Nelson models (C-Ns). Critical levels of desorbed NO3-N ranged from 0.86 to 8.0 microgram cm(-2) d(-1) for relative dry matter yield (DMY) and from 2.3 to 12 microgram cm(-2) d(-1) for turfgrass quality depending upon experimental treatment. Anion exchange membranes show promise of indicating the critical levels of soil NO3-N desorbed from AEMs necessary to achieve maximum turfgrass quality and yield without overapplication of N.