Constant coefficient tests for random coefficient regression

Random coefficient regression models have been applied in differentfields and they constitute a unifying setup for many statisticalproblems. The nonparametric study of this model started with Beranand Hall (1992) and it has become a fruitful framework. In thispaper we propose and study statistics for testing a basic hypothesisconcerning this model: the constancy of coefficients. The asymptoticbehavior of the statistics is investigated and bootstrapapproximations are used in order to determine the critical values ofthe test statistics. A simulation study illustrates the performanceof the proposals.

In vivo targeting of an anti-tumor antibody coupled to antigenic MHC class I complexes induces specific growth inhibition and regression of established syngeneic tumor grafts.

The concept of antibody-mediated targeting of antigenic MHC/peptide complexes on tumor cells in order to sensitize them to T-lymphocyte cytotoxicity represents an attractive new immunotherapy strategy. In vitro experiments have shown that an antibody chemically conjugated or fused to monomeric MHC/peptide can be oligomerized on the surface of tumor cells, rendering them susceptible to efficient lysis by MHC-peptide restricted specific T-cell clones. However, this strategy has not yet been tested entirely in vivo in immunocompetent animals. To this aim, we took advantage of OT-1 mice which have a transgenic T-cell receptor specific for the ovalbumin (ova) immunodominant peptide (257-264) expressed in the context of the MHC class I H-2K(b). We prepared and characterized conjugates between the Fab' fragment from a high-affinity monoclonal antibody to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the H-2K(b) /ova peptide complex. First, we showed in OT-1 mice that the grafting and growth of a syngeneic colon carcinoma line transfected with CEA could be specifically inhibited by systemic injections of the conjugate. Next, using CEA transgenic C57BL/6 mice adoptively transferred with OT-1 spleen cells and immunized with ovalbumin, we demonstrated that systemic injections of the anti-CEA-H-2K(b) /ova conjugate could induce specific growth inhibition and regression of well-established, palpable subcutaneous grafts from the syngeneic CEA-transfected colon carcinoma line. These results, obtained in a well-characterized syngeneic carcinoma model, demonstrate that the antibody-MHC/peptide strategy can function in vivo. Further preclinical experimental studies, using an anti-viral T-cell response, will be performed before this new form of immunotherapy can be considered for clinical use.

Endogenous price leadership

We consider a linear price setting duopoly game with differentiated products and determine endogenously which of the players will lead and which will follow. While the follower role is most attractive for each firm, we show that waiting is more risky for the low cost firm so that, consequently, risk dominance considerations, as in Harsanyi and Selten (1988), allow the conclusion that only the highcost firm will choose to wait. Hence, the low cost firm will emerge as the endogenous price leader.

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

Solving higher-dimensional continuous time stochastic control problems by value function regression

The paper develops a method to solve higher-dimensional stochasticcontrol problems in continuous time. A finite difference typeapproximation scheme is used on a coarse grid of low discrepancypoints, while the value function at intermediate points is obtainedby regression. The stability properties of the method are discussed,and applications are given to test problems of up to 10 dimensions.Accurate solutions to these problems can be obtained on a personalcomputer.

Weighted Kernel regression

In the fixed design regression model, additional weights areconsidered for the Nadaraya--Watson and Gasser--M\"uller kernel estimators.We study their asymptotic behavior and the relationships between new andclassical estimators. For a simple family of weights, and considering theIMSE as global loss criterion, we show some possible theoretical advantages.An empirical study illustrates the performance of the weighted estimatorsin finite samples.

How wide is the gap? An investigation of gender wage differences using quantile regression

In this paper we examine the determinants of wages and decompose theobserved differences across genders into the "explained by differentcharacteristics" and "explained by different returns components"using a sample of Spanish workers. Apart from the conditionalexpectation of wages, we estimate the conditional quantile functionsfor men and women and find that both the absolute wage gap and thepart attributed to different returns at each of the quantiles, farfrom being well represented by their counterparts at the mean, aregreater as we move up in the wage range.

Country asymmetries, endogenous product choice and the speed of trade liberalization

In a world with two countries which differ in size, we study theimpact of (the speed of) trade liberalization on firms' profitsand total welfare of the countries involved. Firms correctlyanticipate the pace of trade liberalization and take it intoaccount when deciding on their product choices, which areendogenously determined at the beginning of the game. Competitionin the marketplace then occurs either on quantities or on prices.As long as the autarkic phase continues, local firms are nationalmonopolists. When trade liberalization occurs, firms compete in aninternational duopoly. We analyze trade effects by using twodifferent models of product differentiation. Across all thespecifications adopted (and independently of the price v. quantitycompetition hypothesis), total welfare always unambiguously riseswith the speed of trade liberalization: Possible losses by firmsare always outweighed by consumers' gains, which come under theform of lower prices, enlarged variety of higher average qualitiesavailable. The effect on profits depends on the type of industryanalyzed. Two results in particular seem to be worth of mention.With vertical product differentiation and fixed costs of qualityimprovements, the expected size of the market faced by the firmsdetermines the incentive to invest in quality. The longer the periodof autarky, the lower the possibility that the firm from the smallcountry would be producing the high quality and be the leader in theinternational market when it opens. On the contrary, when trade opensimmediately, national markets do not play any role and firms fromdifferent countries have the same opportunity to become the leader.Hence, immediate trade liberalization might be in the interest ofproducers in the small country. In general, the lower the size of thesmall country, the more likely its firm will gain from tradeliberalization. Losses from the small country firm can arise when itis relegated to low quality good production and the domestic marketsize is not very small. With horizontal product differentiation (thehomogeneous good case being a limit case of it when costs ofdifferentiation tend to infinity), investments in differentiationbenefit both firms in equal manner. Firms from the small country do notrun the risk of being relegated to a lower competitive position undertrade. As a result, they would never lose from it. Instead, firms fromthe large country may still incur losses from the opening of trade whenthe market expansion effect is low (i.e. when the country is very largerelative to the other).

Endogenous Stackelberg leadership

We consider a linear quantity setting duopoly game and analyzewhich of the players will commit when both players have the possibility todo so. To that end, we study a 2-stage game in which each player caneither commit to a quantity in stage 1 or wait till stage 2. We show thatcommitting is more risky for the high cost firm and that, consequently,risk dominance considerations, as in Harsanyi and Selten (1988), allowthe conclusion that only the low cost firm will choose to commit.Hence, the low cost firm will emerge as the endogenous Stackelberg leader.

Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing

We analyze risk sharing and fiscal spending in a two-region model withcomplete markets. Fiscal policy determines tax rates for each state ofnature. When fiscal policy is decentralized, it can be used to affect prices of securities. To manipulate prices to their beneffit, regionschoose pro-cyclical fiscal spending. This leads to incomplete risk sharing,despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregaterisk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, securities pricescan no longer be manipulated and complete risk sharing ensues. If regionsare homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscalunion. If they are heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich regionprefers the decentralized setting.

Endogenous constitutions

We present a theory of the choice of alternative democratic constitutions, a majoritarian or a consensual one, in an unequal society. A majoritarian democracy redistributes resources from the collectivity toward relatively few people, and has a relatively small government and low level of taxation. A consensual democracy redistributes resources toward a broader spectrum of social groups but also has a larger government and a higher level of taxation. We show that a consensual system turns out to be preferred by society when ex ante income inequality is relatively low, while a majoritarian system is chosen when income inequality is relatively high. We also obtain that consensual democracies should be expected to be ruled more often by center-left coalitions while the right should have an advantage in majoritarian constitutions. The implications for the relationship between inequality and redistribution are discussed. Historical evidence and a cross-sectional analysis support our results.

Ignorance promotes competition: An auction model with endogenous private valuations

We study a situation in which an auctioneer wishes to sell an object toone of N risk-neutral bidders with heterogeneous preferences. Theauctioneer does not know bidders preferences but has private informationabout the characteristics of the ob ject, and must decide how muchinformation to reveal prior to the auction. We show that the auctioneerhas incentives to release less information than would be efficient andthat the amount of information released increases with the level ofcompetition (as measured by the number of bidders). Furthermore, in aperfectly competitive market the auctioneer would provide the efficientlevel of information.

Fat oxidation and adiposity in prepubertal children: exogenous versus endogenous fat utilization.

Fat balance plays an important role in fat mass regulation. The mechanisms by which fat intake and fat oxidation are controlled are poorly understood. In particular, no data are available on the origin, i.e. exogenous (meal intake) or endogenous (adipose tissue lipolysis), of fat oxidized during the postprandial period in children and the proportion between these two components. In this study we tested the hypothesis that there is a relationship between adiposity and the oxidative fate of fat taken with a mixed meal in a group of 15 children with a wide range of fat mass (9-64%). The combination of stable isotope analysis ([13C] enriched fatty acids added to a mixed meal) and indirect calorimetry allowed us to differentiate between the exogenous and endogenous resting fat oxidation rate over the 9-h postprandial period. During the 9 hours of the postprandial period, the children oxidized an amount of fat comparable to that ingested with the meal [26.8 (+/-2.31) g vs. 26.4 (+/-2.3) g, respectively, P = ns]. On average, exogenous fat oxidation [2.99 (+/-3.0) g/9 h] represented 10.8% (+/-0.9) of total fat oxidation. Endogenous fat oxidation, calculated as the difference between total fat oxidation and exogenous fat oxidation, averaged 23.4 (+/-1.9) g/9 h and represented 88.2% (+/-0.9) of total fat oxidation. Endogenous fat oxidation as well as exogenous fat oxidation were highly correlated to total fat oxidation (r = 0.83, P < 0.001; r = 0.84, P < 0.001, respectively). Exogenous fat oxidation expressed as a proportion of total fat oxidation was directly related to fat mass (r = 0.56, P < 0.03), while endogenous fat oxidation expressed as a proportion of total fat oxidation was inversely related (r = -0.57, P < 0.03) to the degree of adiposity. The enhanced exogenous fat oxidation observed when adiposity increases in the dynamic phase of obesity may be viewed as a protective mechanism to prevent further increase in fat mass and hence to maintain fat oxidation at a sufficient rate when the body is exposed to a high amount of dietary fat, as typically encountered in obese children.

Endogenous bargaining power

We present a novel approach to N-person bargaining, based on the idea thatthe agreement reached in a negotiation is determined by how the directconflict resulting from disagreement would be resolved. Our basic buildingblock is the disagreement function, which maps each set of feasible outcomesinto a disagreement point. Using this function and a weak axiom basedon individual rationality we reach a unique solution: the agreement inthe shadow of conflict, ASC. This agreement may be construed as the limitof a sequence of partial agreements, each of which is reached as a functionof the parties relative power. We examine the connection between ASC andasymmetric Nash solutions. We show the connection between the power ofthe parties embodied in the ASC solution and the bias in the SWF thatwould select ASC as an asymmetric Nash solution.

Endogenous labor market participation and the business cycle

Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show analytically how variations in the participation rate are driven by the cross-sectional density of home productivity near the participation threshold, andhow this density translates into an extensive-margin labor supply elasticity. A calibration of the model to macro data not only matches employment and participation variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches unemployment variations well. Furthermore, the labor supply elasticity implied by our calibration is consistent with microeconometric evidence for the US.