Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

Diagenetic processes in a partially dolomitized carbonate reservoir: Casablanca oil field, Valencia Trough, offshore Spain.

Mesozoic and Neogene carbonates located in the Valencia Trough (offshore Spain, western Mediterranean Sea)are oil reservoirs. This paper investigates the diagenetic evolution of the Upper Jurassic limestones, currently dolomitized, that constitute the main reservoir of the Casablanca oil field. Core samples from Casablanca-1A well have been studied to determine the diagenetic products and their relation with porosity evolution, and to reconstruct the fluid flow history prior to and during oil emplacement. On the basis of petrological observations and geochemical analyses (major, minor and trace element composition and oxygen, carbon and strontium isotope composition), a major dolomitization event is recognized postdating subaerial exposure, erosion and karstification. The dolomitization event originated two replacive dolomites (RD1 and RD2) and two dolomite cements (saddle dolomite cement, SDC, and milky-white dolomite cement, MDC)which are partially cogenetic. RD1, RD2 and SDC precipitated at increasing temperatures (over 60ºC and below 110ºC), probably from meteoric water mixed with marine water. The last dolomite type milky-white dolomite cement) precipitated with increasing burial conditions and by arrival of hydrothermal fluids during the Miocene. The post-dolomitization sequence comprises precipitation of calcite cement and partial calcitization of all previous dolomites. The oxygen, carbon and strontium isotope compositions suggest that this calcite cementation occurred from meteoric waters mixed with Burdigalian - Langhian marine waters trapped in the sediments and expelled by compaction in the moderate to deep burial realm. Normal faults were the conduits for upward migration of these fluids as well as for later oil expulsion from the Burdigalian - Langhian source rocks. Late corrosion associated with organic acid-enriched fluids took place prior or simultaneously to oil migration during the Pliocene, enhancing porosity and increasing eservoir quality.

Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

Changes in the phenolic content of low density lipoprotein after olive oil consumption in men. A randomized crossover controlled trial

Olive oil decreases the risk of CVD. This effect may be due to the fatty acid profile of the oil, but it may also be due to its antioxidant content which differs depending on the type of olive oil. In this study, the concentrations of oleic acid and antioxidants (phenolic compounds and vitamin E) in plasma and LDL were compared after consumption of three similar olive oils, but with differences in their phenolic content. Thirty healthy volunteers participated in a placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover, randomized supplementation trial. Virgin, common, and refined olive oils were administered during three periods of 3 weeks separated by a 2-week washout period. Participants were requested to ingest a daily dose of 25 ml raw olive oil, distributed over the three meals of the day, during intervention periods. All three olive oils caused an increase in plasma and LDL oleic acid (P,0·05) content. Olive oils rich in phenolic compounds led to an increase in phenolic compounds in LDL (P,0·005). The concentration of phenolic compounds in LDL was directly correlated with the phenolic concentration in the olive oils. The increase in the phenolic content of LDL could account for the increase of the resistance of LDL to oxidation, and the decrease of the in vivo oxidized LDL, observed in the frame of this trial. Our results support the hypothesis that a daily intake of virgin olive oil promotes protective LDL changes ahead of its oxidation.

Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador

This paper investigates the fiscal sustainability of an emerging, dollarized, oil-exporting country: Ecuador. A cointegrated VAR approach is adopted in testing, first, if the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied in Ecuador and, second, in identifying the permanent and transitory shocks that affect a fiscal policy characterized by inertia and a heavy dependence on oil revenues. Following confirmation that the debt-GDP ratio does not place the Ecuadorian budget under any pressure, we reformulate the model and identify two forces that push the fiscal system out of equilibrium, namely, economic activity and oil revenues implemented in the government budget. We argue that Ecuador needs to recover control of its monetary policy and to promote the diversification of its economy in order that non-oil tax revenues can replace oil revenues as a pushing force. Finally, we calculate quarterly elasticities of tax revenues with respect to Ecuador’s GDP and that of eight Eurozone countries. We illustrate graphically how the Eurozone countries with low positive or high negative elasticities’ levels suffer debt problems after the crisis. This finding emphasizes the pressing need for Ecuador to strengthen the connection between its tax revenues and output, and also suggests that the convergence of these elasticities in the Eurozone might contribute to the success of an eventually future fiscal union.

Polymorphisms cyclooxygenase-2 -765G>C and interleukin-6 -174G>C are associated with serum inflammation markers in a high cardiovascular risk population and do not modify the response to a Mediterranean diet supplemented with virgin olive oil or nuts

Inflammation is involved in cardiovascular diseases. Some studies have found that the Mediterranean diet (MD) can reduce serum concentrations of inflammation markers. However, none of these studies have analyzed the influence of genetic variability in such a response. Our objective was to study the effect of the -765G.C polymorphism in the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) gene and the -174G.C polymorphism in the interleukin-6 (IL-6) gene on serum concentrations of IL-6, C-reactive protein, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 as well as their influence on the response toa nutritional interventionwithMD.An intervention study ina high cardiovascular riskMediterranean population (314 men and 407 women) was undertaken. Participants were randomly assigned to consume a low-fat control diet or a MD supplementedwith virgin olive oil ornuts.Measureswereobtained at baseline and after a 3-mointervention period.At baseline, the COX-2 -765G.C polymorphismwas associated with lower serum IL-6 (5.85 6 4.82 in GG vs. 4.74 6 4.14 ng/L in C-allele carriers; P ¼ 0.002) and ICAM-1 (265.8 6 114.8 in GG vs. 243.0 6 107.1 mg/L in C-carriers; P ¼ 0.018) concentrations. These differences remained significant aftermultivariate adjustment. The IL-6 -174G.C polymorphism was associatedwith higher (CC vs. G-carriers) serumICAM-1concentrations in bothmenandwomenandwithhigherserumIL-6 concentrations inmen.Following the dietary intervention, no significant gene x diet interactions were found. In conclusion, although COX-2 -765G.C and IL-6 -174G.C polymorphismswere associatedwith inflammation, consuming aMD(either supplemented with virgin olive oil or nuts) reduced the concentration of inflammation markers regardless of these polymorphisms.

Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union -EMU-, with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries -Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain-, covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt -domestic and foreign- in each country.

Forward Looking Banking Stress in EMU Countries

Based on contingent claims analysis, CCA, this paper tries to estimate the systemic risk build-up in the European Economic and Monetary Union, EMU countries using a market based measure distance-to-default, DtD. It analyzes the individual and aggregated series for a comprehensive set of banks in each eurozone country over the period 2004-Q4 to 2013-Q2. Given the structural differences in financial sector and banking regulations at national level, the indices provide a useful indicator for monitoring country specific banking vulnerability and stress. We find that average DtD indicators are intuitive, forward-looking and timely risk indicators. The underlying trend, fluctuations and correlations among indices help us analyze the interdependence while cross-sectional differences in DtD prior to crisis suggest banking sector fragility in peripheral EMU countries.

Immediate ecotoxicological effects of short-lived oil spills on marine biota.

Marine environments are frequently exposed to oil spills as a result of transportation, oil drilling or fuel usage. Whereas large oil spills and their effects have been widely documented, more common and recurrent small spills typically escape attention. To fill this important gap in the assessment of oil-spill effects, we performed two independent supervised full sea releases of 5 m(3) of crude oil, complemented by on-board mesocosm studies and sampling of accidentally encountered slicks. Using rapid on-board biological assays, we detect high bioavailability and toxicity of dissolved and dispersed oil within 24 h after the spills, occurring fairly deep (8 m) below the slicks. Selective decline of marine plankton is observed, equally relevant for early stages of larger spills. Our results demonstrate that, contrary to common thinking, even small spills have immediate adverse biological effects and their recurrent nature is likely to affect marine ecosystem functioning.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: a connectedness analysis

This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each country and apply panel model techniques to investigate its determinants. Finally, to gain further insights, we examine the timevarying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness at different stages of the recent sovereign debt crisis.

Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets

We analyse volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets. First, we examine the unconditional patterns during the full sample (April 1999-January 2014) using a measure recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2012). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate net directional volatility spillovers for each of the eleven countries under study, and to determine whether core and peripheral markets present differences. Finally, we apply a panel analysis to empirically investigate the determinants of net directional spillovers of this kind.

Sustainability of palm oil production and opportunities for Finnish technology and know-how transfer

The global demand for palm oil is growing, thus prompting an increase in the global production particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia. Such increasing demand for palm oil is due to palm oil’s relatively cheap price and versatile advantage both in edible and non-edible applications. Along with the increasing demand for palm oil, particularly for the production of biofuel, is a heated debate on its sustainability. Ecological degradation, climate change and social issues are among the main sustainability issues pressing the whole palm oil industry today. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects fulfilling the imperatives of the Kyoto Protocol are starting to gain momentum in Malaysia as reflected by the increasing registration of CDM projects in the palm oil mills. Most CDM projects in palm oil mills are on waste-to-energy, cocomposting, and methane recovery with the latter being the most common. The study on greenhouse gases (GHG) in the milling process points that biogas collection and energy utilisation has the greatest positive effect on GHG balance. On the other hand, empty fruit bunches (EFB) end-use as energy and high energy efficiency of the mill have the least effect on GHG balance of the mill. The range of direct GHG emissions from the palm oil mill is from 2.5 to 27 gCO2e/MJCPO, while the range of GHG emissions with all indirect and avoided emissions included is from -9 to 29 gCO2e/MJCPO. Comparing this GHG balance result with that of the EU RES-Directive suggests a further check on the values and emissions consideration of the latter.

Explosion-proof requirements for Electrical Machines in Chemical, Oil and Gas Industry in Russia and CIS Countries

One of the main industries which form the basis of Russian Economical structure is oil and gas. This industry is also playing a significant role for CIS countries. Oil and gas industry is developing intensively attracting foreign investments. This situation is providing sustainable development of machinery production for hazardous areas. Operating in oil and gas areas is always related with occurrence of explosion gas atmospheres. Machines for hazardous areas must be furnished with additional protection of different types. Explosion protection is regulated with standards according to which equipment must be manufactured. In Russia and CIS countries explosion-proof equipment must be constructed in compliance with GOST standards. To confirm that equipment is manufactured according to standards’ requirements and is safe and reliable it must undergo the approval procedure. Certification in Russia is governed by Federal Laws and legislation. Each CIS country has its own approval certificates and permissions for operating in hazardous areas.