Characteristics of WWW Client-based Traces

The explosion of WWW traffic necessitates an accurate picture of WWW use, and in particular requires a good understanding of client requests for WWW documents. To address this need, we have collected traces of actual executions of NCSA Mosaic, reflecting over half a million user requests for WWW documents. In this paper we describe the methods we used to collect our traces, and the formats of the collected data. Next, we present a descriptive statistical summary of the traces we collected, which identifies a number of trends and reference patterns in WWW use. In particular, we show that many characteristics of WWW use can be modelled using power-law distributions, including the distribution of document sizes, the popularity of documents as a function of size, the distribution of user requests for documents, and the number of references to documents as a function of their overall rank in popularity (Zipf's law). Finally, we show how the power-law distributions derived from our traces can be used to guide system designers interested in caching WWW documents.

Diversity of Forwarding Paths in Pocket Switched Networks

Forwarding in DTNs is a challenging problem. We focus on the specific issue of forwarding in an environment where mobile devices are carried by people in a restricted physical space (e.g. a conference) and contact patterns are not predictable. We show for the first time a path explosion phenomenon between most pairs of nodes. This means that, once the first path reaches the destination, the number of subsequent paths grows rapidly with time, so there usually exist many near-optimal paths. We study the path explosion phenomenon both analytically and empirically. Our results highlight the importance of unequal contact rates across nodes for understanding the performance of forwarding algorithms. We also find that a variety of well-known forwarding algorithms show surprisingly similar performance in our setting and we interpret this fact in light of the path explosion phenomenon.

Forewarding in Mobile Opportunistic Networks

Recent advances in processor speeds, mobile communications and battery life have enabled computers to evolve from completely wired to completely mobile. In the most extreme case, all nodes are mobile and communication takes place at available opportunities – using both traditional communication infrastructure as well as the mobility of intermediate nodes. These are mobile opportunistic networks. Data communication in such networks is a difficult problem, because of the dynamic underlying topology, the scarcity of network resources and the lack of global information. Establishing end-to-end routes in such networks is usually not feasible. Instead a store-and-carry forwarding paradigm is better suited for such networks. This dissertation describes and analyzes algorithms for forwarding of messages in such networks. In order to design effective forwarding algorithms for mobile opportunistic networks, we start by first building an understanding of the set of all paths between nodes, which represent the available opportunities for any forwarding algorithm. Relying on real measurements, we enumerate paths between nodes and uncover what we refer to as the path explosion effect. The term path explosion refers to the fact that the number of paths between a randomly selected pair of nodes increases exponentially with time. We draw from the theory of epidemics to model and explain the path explosion effect. This is the first contribution of the thesis, and is a key observation that underlies subsequent results. Our second contribution is the study of forwarding algorithms. For this, we rely on trace driven simulations of different algorithms that span a range of design dimensions. We compare the performance (success rate and average delay) of these algorithms. We make the surprising observation that most algorithms we consider have roughly similar performance. We explain this result in light of the path explosion phenomenon. While the performance of most algorithms we studied was roughly the same, these algorithms differed in terms of cost. This prompted us to focus on designing algorithms with the explicit intent of reducing costs. For this, we cast the problem of forwarding as an optimal stopping problem. Our third main contribution is the design of strategies based on optimal stopping principles which we refer to as Delegation schemes. Our analysis shows that using a delegation scheme reduces cost over naive forwarding by a factor of O(√N), where N is the number of nodes in the network. We further validate this result on real traces, where the cost reduction observed is even greater. Our results so far include a key assumption, which is unbounded buffers on nodes. Next, we relax this assumption, so that the problem shifts to one of prioritization of messages for transmission and dropping. Our fourth contribution is the study of message prioritization schemes, combined with forwarding. Our main result is that one achieves higher performance by assigning higher priorities to young messages in the network. We again interpret this result in light of the path explosion effect.

Methane contamination of drinking water accompanying gas-well drilling and hydraulic fracturing.

Directional drilling and hydraulic-fracturing technologies are dramatically increasing natural-gas extraction. In aquifers overlying the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York, we document systematic evidence for methane contamination of drinking water associated with shale-gas extraction. In active gas-extraction areas (one or more gas wells within 1 km), average and maximum methane concentrations in drinking-water wells increased with proximity to the nearest gas well and were 19.2 and 64 mg CH(4) L(-1) (n = 26), a potential explosion hazard; in contrast, dissolved methane samples in neighboring nonextraction sites (no gas wells within 1 km) within similar geologic formations and hydrogeologic regimes averaged only 1.1 mg L(-1) (P < 0.05; n = 34). Average δ(13)C-CH(4) values of dissolved methane in shallow groundwater were significantly less negative for active than for nonactive sites (-37 ± 7‰ and -54 ± 11‰, respectively; P < 0.0001). These δ(13)C-CH(4) data, coupled with the ratios of methane-to-higher-chain hydrocarbons, and δ(2)H-CH(4) values, are consistent with deeper thermogenic methane sources such as the Marcellus and Utica shales at the active sites and matched gas geochemistry from gas wells nearby. In contrast, lower-concentration samples from shallow groundwater at nonactive sites had isotopic signatures reflecting a more biogenic or mixed biogenic/thermogenic methane source. We found no evidence for contamination of drinking-water samples with deep saline brines or fracturing fluids. We conclude that greater stewardship, data, and-possibly-regulation are needed to ensure the sustainable future of shale-gas extraction and to improve public confidence in its use.

Acculturation and Global Mindsponge

Much research on acculturation around global experiences has focused on the “type” of overseas experience—e.g. expatriate, repatriate, inpatriate, flexpatriate. The experiences of people in those categories and across various demographics (single/married/divorced; gender; sexual orientation) can differ dramatically. In addition, given the explosion of people working in global business, some global business citizens could well fit into several of those various types of experiences over the course of their careers. In this paper, we propose to push in a somewhat different direction and explore something that for us would be quite new. Rather than focusing on the various categories and their resulting experiences, we take a step back to consider what attributes and ways of thinking a global citizen may need to become better as a global business citizen, regardless of type of experience. The question is less one of “Who am I” than “How can I become better?”. Essentially, we would like to explore what might be required in moving the global citizen from thinking about “global mindset” to “global mindsponge.” When we hear the term mindset, we think of a certain way of thinking that stays rather fixed. So part of the challenge of the paper will be to define and examine what mindsponge might mean in the global context—what does it take to unlearn or squeeze out certain ways of thinking or behaving before absorbing and reshaping new ways of thinking and behaving? Moreover, how might that become part of a natural and regular way of operating, especially in a rapidly changing developing country like Vietnam, in particular? At this early stage, we think of mind sponge as a mechanism that encourages flexibility and receptiveness through a process of using multiple filters and more focus on creativity, or doing things differently to improve an organization or individual performance. Our goal is to develop a basic conceptual framework for “mindsponge,” drawing upon a broad literature review as well as several unstructured interviews, to assess whether the idea of mindsponge helps people perceive that they are more culturally versatile and culturally mobile, regardless of whether they work in or outside of their “home environment.” We hope this would enhance their ability to shape an emerging set of cultural values that erases the divide between “foreign” and “local” cultural differences that so often dominates in emerging economies.

Genes, race, and the ethics of belief.

A Troublesome Inheritance, by Nicholas Wade, should be read by anyone interested in race and recent human evolution. Wade deserves credit for challenging the popular dog-ma that biological differences between groups either don't exist or cannot ex-plain the relative success of different groups at different tasks. Wade's work should be read alongside another re-cent book, The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, by Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending. Together, these books represent a ma-jor turning point in the public debate about the speed with which relatively isolated groups can evolve: both books suggest that small genetic differences between members of different groups can have large impacts on their abilities and propensities, which in turn affect the outcomes of the societies in which they live.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

The collision branching process

We consider a branching model, which we call the collision branching process (CBP), that accounts for the effect of collisions, or interactions, between particles or individuals. We establish that there is a unique CBP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive. We review results on extinction probabilities, and obtain explicit expressions for the probability of explosion and the expected hitting times. The upwardly skip-free case is studied in some detail.

Simulating the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire using the CFD fire simulation software SMARTFIRE

At 8.18pm on 2 September 1998, Swissair Flight 111 (SR 111), took off from New York’s JFK airport bound for Geneva, Switzerland. Tragically, the MD-11 aircraft never arrived. According to the crash investigation report, published on 27 March 2003, electrical arcing in the ceiling void cabling was the most likely cause of the fire that brought down the aircraft. No one on board was aware of the disaster unfolding in the ceiling of the aircraft and, when a strange odour entered the cockpit, the pilots thought it was a problem with the air-conditioning system. Twenty minutes later, Swissair Flight 111 plunged into the Atlantic Ocean five nautical miles southwest of Peggy’s Cove, Nova Scotia, with the loss of all 229 lives on board. In this paper, the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the in-flight fire that brought down SR 111 is described. Reconstruction of the wreckage disclosed that the fire pattern was extensive and complex in nature. The fire damage created significant challenges to identify the origin of the fire and to appropriately explain the heat damage observed. The SMARTFIRE CFD software was used to predict the “possible” behaviour of airflow as well as the spread of fire and smoke within SR 111. The main aims of the CFD analysis were to develop a better understanding of the possible effects, or lack thereof, of numerous variables relating to the in-flight fire. Possible fire and smoke spread scenarios were studied to see what the associated outcomes would be. This assisted investigators at Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire & Explosion Group in assessing fire dynamics for cause and origin determination.

CFD fire simulation of the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire - part II: fire spread analysis

In 1998, Swissair Flight I I I (SR111) developed an in-flight fire shortly after take-off which resulted in the loss of the aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas MD-I 1, and all passengers and crew. The Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire and Explosion Group launched a four year investigation into the incident in an attempt to understand the cause and subsequent mechanisms which lead to the rapid spread of the in-flight fire. As part of this investigation, the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software was used to predict the 'possible' development of the fire and associated smoke movement. In this paper the CFD fire simulations are presented and model predictions compared with key findings from the investigation. The model predictions are shown to be consistent with a number of the investigation findings associated with the early stages of the fire development. The analysis makes use of simulated pre-fire airflow conditions within the MD-11 cockpit and above ceiling region presented in an earlier publication (Part 1) which was published in The Aeronautical Journal in January 2006(4).

Probabilistic approach in weighted Markov branching processes

This note provides a new probabilistic approach in discussing the weighted Markov branching process (WMBP) which is a natural generalisation of the ordinary Markov branching process. Using this approach, some important characteristics regarding the hitting times of such processes can be easily obtained. In particular, the closed forms for the mean extinction time and conditional mean extinction time are presented. The explosion behaviour of the process is investigated and the mean explosion time is derived. The mean global holding time and the mean total survival time are also obtained. The close link between these newly developed processes and the well-known compound Poisson processes is investigated. It is revealed that any weighted Markov branching process (WMBP) is a random time change of a compound Poisson process.

A study of the Type II-P supernova 2003gd in M74

We present photometric and spectroscopic data of the Type II-P supernova (SN II-P) 2003gd, which was discovered in M74 close to the end of its plateau phase. SN 2003gd is the first Type II supernova ( SN) to have a directly confirmed red supergiant ( RSG) progenitor. We compare SN 2003gd to SN 1999 em, a similar SN II-P, and estimate an explosion date of 2003 March 18. We determine a reddening towards the SN of E(B-V) = 0.14 +/- 0.06, using three different methods. We also calculate three new distances to M74 of 9.6 +/- 2.8, 7.7 +/- 1.7 and 9.6 +/- 2.2 Mpc. The former was estimated using the standard candle method (SCM), for Type II supernovae (SNe II), and the latter two using the brightest supergiants method (BSM). When combined with existing kinematic and BSM distance estimates, we derive a mean value of 9.3 +/- 1.8 Mpc. SN 2003gd was found to have a lower tail luminosity compared with other normal Type II-P supernovae ( SNe II-P) bringing into question the nature of this SN. We present a discussion concluding that this is a normal SN II-P, which is consistent with the observed progenitor mass of 8(-2)(+4) M-circle dot.

Detection of a Red Supergiant Progenitor Star of a Type II-Plateau Supernova

We present the discovery of a red supergiant star that exploded as supernova 2003gd in the nearby spiral galaxy M74. The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Gemini Telescope imaged this galaxy 6 to 9 months before the supernova explosion, and subsequent HST images confirm the positional coincidence of the supernova with a single resolved star that is a red supergiant of 8+4-2 solar masses. This confirms both stellar evolution models and supernova theories predicting that cool red supergiants are the immediate progenitor stars of type II-plateau supernovae.

The massive binary companion star to the progenitor of supernova 1993J

The massive star that underwent a collapse of its core to produce supernova (SN)1993J was subsequently identified as a non-variable red supergiant star in images of the galaxy M81 taken before explosion(1, 2). It showed an excess in ultraviolet and B-band colours, suggesting either the presence of a hot, massive companion star or that it was embedded in an unresolved young stellar association1. The spectra of SN1993J underwent a remarkable transformation from the signature of a hydrogen-rich type II supernova to one of a helium-rich (hydrogen-deficient) type Ib(3, 4). The spectral and photometric peculiarities were best explained by models in which the 13�20 solar mass supergiant had lost almost its entire hydrogen envelope to a close binary companion(5, 6, 7), producing a 'type IIb' supernova, but the hypothetical massive companion stars for this class of supernovae have so far eluded discovery. Here we report photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN1993J ten years after the explosion. At the position of the fading supernova we detect the unambiguous signature of a massive star: the binary companion to the progenitor.

From Quality Management to Socially Responsible Organisations: the Case for CSR

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the growing interest of the role of business in society, commonly referred to as CSR. Historically CSR can be traced back to the 1950s, although in very recent times there has been a virtual explosion of interest in its use and applicability in organisations. However, there are many unresolved issues, most notably in terms of how CSR should or can be implemented and embedded in an organisation. This paper therefore seeks to explore the relationship and potential synergies between quality management and CSR. Design/methodology/approach – The qualitative exploratory study in this paper represents the first stage of an ongoing research programme, and is based on an in-depth analysis of quality award submission documentation from six case organisations that have recently been recognised as winners in relation to their quest for business improvement. Findings – The paper finds that substantial evidence from each of the case organisations demonstrates the breadth and depth of activities in which they are engaging under the broad headings of workplace, environment, social impact, and economic impact. However, whilst there is no doubting the sincerity of the actions, the approaches and activities, a strategic focus on CSR is still very much in its infancy. Research limitations/implications – In this paper there is a paucity of empirical research examining how existing management tools, techniques and methodologies can be used to further the CSR debate. This paper represents an important first step in redressing this imbalance. Practical implications – The paper suggests that the quality management and business excellence frameworks can offer a strong foundation from which to develop CSR strategies, behaviours and activities in an organisation. Originality/value – This paper represents an important first step in understanding how and where CSR “fits” into an organisation and potentially how existing quality methodologies, tools and frameworks can be used to aid the implementation of CSR.