The Learning Component of Dynamic Allocation Indices

For a multiarmed bandit problem with exponential discounting the optimal allocation rule is defined by a dynamic allocation index defined for each arm on its space. The index for an arm is equal to the expected immediate reward from the arm, with an upward adjustment reflecting any uncertainty about the prospects of obtaining rewards from the arm, and the possibilities of resolving those uncertainties by selecting that arm. Thus the learning component of the index is defined to be the difference between the index and the expected immediate reward. For two arms with the same expected immediate reward the learning component should be larger for the arm for which the reward rate is more uncertain. This is shown to be true for arms based on independent samples from a fixed distribution with an unknown parameter in the cases of Bernoulli and normal distributions, and similar results are obtained in other cases.

A robust approach to design a single facility layout plan in dynamic manufacturing environments using a permutation-based genetic algorithm

During the past few decades, developing efficient methods to solve dynamic facility layout problems has been focused on significantly by practitioners and researchers. More specifically meta-heuristic algorithms, especially genetic algorithm, have been proven to be increasingly helpful to generate sub-optimal solutions for large-scale dynamic facility layout problems. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of the manufacturing factors in addition to the scale of the layout problem calls for a mixed genetic algorithm–robust approach that could provide a single unlimited layout design. The present research aims to devise a customized permutation-based robust genetic algorithm in dynamic manufacturing environments that is expected to be generating a unique robust layout for all the manufacturing periods. The numerical outcomes of the proposed robust genetic algorithm indicate significant cost improvements compared to the conventional genetic algorithm methods and a selective number of other heuristic and meta-heuristic techniques.

Modeling of dynamic material behavior in hot deformation: Forging of Ti-6242

A new method of modeling material behavior which accounts for the dynamic metallurgical processes occurring during hot deformation is presented. The approach in this method is to consider the workpiece as a dissipator of power in the total processing system and to evaluate the dissipated power co-contentJ = ∫o σ ε ⋅dσ from the constitutive equation relating the strain rate (ε) to the flow stress (σ). The optimum processing conditions of temperature and strain rate are those corresponding to the maximum or peak inJ. It is shown thatJ is related to the strain-rate sensitivity (m) of the material and reaches a maximum value(J max) whenm = 1. The efficiency of the power dissipation(J/J max) through metallurgical processes is shown to be an index of the dynamic behavior of the material and is useful in obtaining a unique combination of temperature and strain rate for processing and also in delineating the regions of internal fracture. In this method of modeling, noa priori knowledge or evaluation of the atomistic mechanisms is required, and the method is effective even when more than one dissipation process occurs, which is particularly advantageous in the hot processing of commercial alloys having complex microstructures. This method has been applied to modeling of the behavior of Ti-6242 during hot forging. The behavior of α+ β andβ preform microstructures has been exam-ined, and the results show that the optimum condition for hot forging of these preforms is obtained at 927 °C (1200 K) and a strain rate of 1CT•3 s•1. Variations in the efficiency of dissipation with temperature and strain rate are correlated with the dynamic microstructural changes occurring in the material.

1H and 13C dynamic NMR studies of NN-diethyl N'-aryl thioureas

The variable temperature 1H and 13C NMR behaviour of two trisubstituted thioureas, namely N,N-diethyl N'-(2-thiazolyl) thiourea and N,N-diethyl N'-(3-pyridyl)thiourea has been investigated. The barrier to rotation of the diethylamino group has been obtained.

A fuzzy logic based dynamic wave model inversion algorithm for canal regulation

A fuzzy logic based centralized control algorithm for irrigation canals is presented. Purpose of the algorithm is to control downstream discharge and water level of pools in the canal, by adjusting discharge release from the upstream end and gates settings. The algorithm is based on the dynamic wave model (Saint-Venant equations) inversion in space, wherein the momentum equation is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on fuzzification of a new mathematical model for wave velocity, the derivational details of which are given. The advantages of the fuzzy control algorithm, over other conventional control algorithms, are described. It is transparent and intuitive, and no linearizations of the governing equations are involved. Timing of the algorithm and method of computation are explained. It is shown that the tuning is easy and the computations are straightforward. The algorithm provides stable, realistic and robust outputs. The disadvantage of the algorithm is reduced precision in its outputs due to the approximation inherent in the fuzzy logic. Feed back control logic is adopted to eliminate error caused by the system disturbances as well as error caused by the reduced precision in the outputs. The algorithm is tested by applying it to water level control problem in a fictitious canal with a single pool and also in a real canal with a series of pools. It is found that results obtained from the algorithm are comparable to those obtained from conventional control algorithms.

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S-f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub-reach is obtained from discharge-area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub-reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro-fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub-reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM Outputs are comparable to those of the HEC-RAS model.

Seismic reliability assessment of external stability of reinforced soil walls using pseudo-dynamic method

The paper presents a method for the evaluation of external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquakes in the framework of the pseudo-dynamic method. The seismic reliability of the wall is evaluated by considering the different possible failure modes such as sliding along the base, overturning about the toe point of the wall, bearing capacity and the eccentricity of the resultant force. The analysis is performed considering properties of the reinforced backfill, foundation soil below the base of the wall, length of the geosynthetic reinforcement and characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as shear wave and primary wave velocity as random variables. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain stability against four modes of failure by targeting various component reliability indices is obtained. Differences between pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methods are clearly highlighted in the paper. A complete analysis of pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methodologies shows that the pseudodynamic method results in realistic design values for the length of geosynthetic reinforcement under earthquake conditions.

Multi Pattern Dynamic Time Warping For Automatic Speech Recognition

We are addressing the problem of jointly using multiple noisy speech patterns for automatic speech recognition (ASR), given that they come from the same class. If the user utters a word K times, the ASR system should try to use the information content in all the K patterns of the word simultaneously and improve its speech recognition accuracy compared to that of the single pattern based speech recognition. T address this problem, recently we proposed a Multi Pattern Dynamic Time Warping (MPDTW) algorithm to align the K patterns by finding the least distortion path between them. A Constrained Multi Pattern Viterbi algorithm was used on this aligned path for isolated word recognition (IWR). In this paper, we explore the possibility of using only the MPDTW algorithm for IWR. We also study the properties of the MPDTW algorithm. We show that using only 2 noisy test patterns (10 percent burst noise at -5 dB SNR) reduces the noisy speech recognition error rate by 37.66 percent when compared to the single pattern recognition using the Dynamic Time Warping algorithm.

Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Non-linear dynamic analysis of rotors by finite element method

Non-linear natural vibration characteristics and the dynamic response of hingeless and fully articulated rotors of rectangular cross-section are studied by using the finite element method. In the formulation of response problems, the global variables are augmented with appropriate additional variables, facilitating direct determination of sub-harmonic response. Numerical results are given showing the effect of the geometric non-linearity on the first three natural frequencies. Response analysis of typical rotors indicates a possibility of substantial sub-harmonic response especially in the fully articulated rotors widely adopted in helicopters.

The Alpha-Method Direct Transcription In Path Constrained Dynamic Optimization

Numerically discretized dynamic optimization problems having active inequality and equality path constraints that along with the dynamics induce locally high index differential algebraic equations often cause the optimizer to fail in convergence or to produce degraded control solutions. In many applications, regularization of the numerically discretized problem in direct transcription schemes by perturbing the high index path constraints helps the optimizer to converge to usefulm control solutions. For complex engineering problems with many constraints it is often difficult to find effective nondegenerat perturbations that produce useful solutions in some neighborhood of the correct solution. In this paper we describe a numerical discretization that regularizes the numerically consistent discretized dynamics and does not perturb the path constraints. For all values of the regularization parameter the discretization remains numerically consistent with the dynamics and the path constraints specified in the, original problem. The regularization is quanti. able in terms of time step size in the mesh and the regularization parameter. For full regularized systems the scheme converges linearly in time step size.The method is illustrated with examples.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

Correction factors for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators

This paper presents an approach for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators by introducing a new correction factor for equivalent inter-area power flows. The spread of generators from the center of inertia of each area is summarized by the correction term α on the equivalent power flow between the areas and is applied to the identification and estimation process. A nonlinear time varying Kalman filter is applied to estimate the equivalent angles and velocities of coherent areas by reducing the effect of local modes on the estimated states. The approach is simulated on two test systems and the results show the effect of the correction factor and the performance of the state estimation by estimating the inter-area dynamics of the system.

PMU measurement based dynamic load modeling using SVC devices in online environment

Online dynamic load modeling has become possible with the availability of Static Voltage Compensator (SVC) and Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) devices. The power of the load response to the small random bounded voltage fluctuations caused from SVC can be measured by PMU for modelling purposes. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the capability of identifying an aggregated load model from high voltage substation level in the online environment. The induction motor is used as the main test subject since it contributes the majority of the dynamic loads. A test system representing simple electromechanical generator model serving dynamic loads through the transmission network is used to verify the proposed method. Also, dynamic load with multiple induction motors are modeled to achieve a better realistic load representation.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.