Improving the health and well-being of women at risk for neural tube defect recurrence

There is growing interest in providing women with internatal care, a package of healthcare and ancillary services that can improve their health during the period after the termination of one pregnancy but before the conception of the next pregnancy. Women who have had a pregnancy affected by a neural tube defect can especially benefit from internatal care because they are at increased risk for recurrence and improvements to their health during the inter-pregnancy period can prevent future negative birth outcomes. The dissertation provides three papers that inform the content of internatal care for women at risk for recurrence by examining descriptive epidemiology to develop an accurate risk profile of the population, assessing whether women at risk for recurrence would benefit from a psychosocial intervention, and determining how to improve health promotion efforts targeting folic acid use.^ Paper one identifies information relevant for developing risk profiles and conducting risk assessments. A number of investigations have found that the risk for neural tube defects differs between non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics. To understand the risk difference, the descriptive epidemiology of spina bifida and anencephaly was examined for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites based on data from the Texas Birth Defects Registry for the years 1999 through 2004. Crude and adjusted birth prevalence ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated between descriptive epidemiologic characteristics and anencephaly and spina bifida for non-Hispanic Whites and for Hispanics. In both race/ethnic groups, anencephaly expressed an inverse relationship with maternal age and a positive linear relationship with parity. Both relationships were stronger in non-Hispanic Whites. Female infants had a higher risk for anencephaly in non-Hispanic Whites. Lower maternal education was associated with increased risk for spina bifida in Hispanics.^ Paper two assesses the need for a psychosocial intervention. For mothers who have children with spina bifida, the transition to motherhood can be stressful. This qualitative study explored the process of becoming a mother to a child with spina bifida focusing particularly on stress and coping in the immediate postnatal environment. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six mothers who have children with spina bifida. Mothers were asked about their initial emotional and problem-based coping efforts, the quality and kind of support provided by health providers, and the characteristics of their meaning-based coping efforts; questions matched Transactional Model of Stress and Coping (TMSC) constructs. Analysis of the responses revealed a number of modifiable stress and coping transactions, the most salient being: health providers are in a position to address beliefs about self-causality and prevent mothers from experiencing the repercussions that stem from maintaining these beliefs. ^ Paper three identifies considerations when creating health promotion materials targeting folic acid use. A brochure was designed using concepts from the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM). Three focus groups comprising 26 mothers of children with spina bifida evaluated the brochure. One focus group was conducted in Spanish-only, the other two focus groups were conducted in English and Spanish combined. Qualitative analysis of coded transcripts revealed that a brochure is a helpful adjunct. Questions about folic acid support the inclusion of an insert with basic information. There may be a need to develop different educational material for Hispanics so the importance of folic acid is provided in a situational context. Some participants blamed themselves for their pregnancy outcome which may affect their receptivity to messages in the brochure. The women's desire for photographs that affect their perception of threat and their identification with the second role model indicate they belong to PAPM Stage 2 and 3. Participants preferred colorful envelopes, high quality paper, intimidating photographs, simple words, conversational style sentences, and positive messages.^ These papers develop the content of risk assessment, psychosocial intervention, and health promotion components of internatal care as they apply to women at risk for recurrence. The findings provided evidence for considering parity and maternal age when assessing nutritional risk. The two dissimilarities between the two race/ethnic groups, infant sex and maternal education lent support to creating separate risk profiles. Interviews with mothers of children with spina bifida revealed the existence of unmet needs-suggesting that a psychosocial intervention provided as part of internatal care can strengthen and support women's well-being. Segmenting the audience according to race/ethnicity and PAPM stage can improve the relevance of print materials promoting folic acid use.^

STRATEGIES FOR THE TRANSFER OF APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE IMPLEMENTATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PROGRAMS IN TUNISIA

This dissertation focuses on Project HOPE, an American medical aid agency, and its work in Tunisia. More specifically this is a study of the implementation strategies of those HOPE sponsored projects and programs designed to solve the problems of high morbidity and infant mortality rates due to environmentally related diarrheal and enteric diseases. Several environmental health programs and projects developed in cooperation with Tunisian counterparts are described and analyzed. These include (1) a paramedical manpower training program; (2) a national hospital sanitation and infection control program; (3) a community sewage disposal project; (4) a well reconstruction project; and (5) a solid-waste disposal project for a hospital.^ After independence, Tunisia, like many developing countries, encountered several difficulties which hindered progress toward solving basic environmental health problems and prompted a request for aid. This study discusses the need for all who work in development programs to recognize and assess those difficulties or constraints which affect the program planning process, including those latent cultural and political constraints which not only exist within the host country but within the aid agency as well. For example, failure to recognize cultural differences may adversely affect the attitudes of the host staff towards their work and towards the aid agency and its task. These factors, therefore, play a significant role in influencing program development decisions and must be taken into account in order to maximize the probability of successful outcomes.^ In 1969 Project HOPE was asked by the Tunisian government to assist the Ministry of Health in solving its health manpower problems. HOPE responded with several programs, one of which concerned the training of public health nurses, sanitary technicians, and aids at Tunisia's school of public health in Nabeul. The outcome of that program as well as the strategies used in its development are analyzed. Also, certain questions are addressed such as, what should the indicators of success be, and when is the time right to phase out?^ Another HOPE program analyzed involved hospital sanitation and infection control. Certain generic aspects of basic hospital sanitation procedures were documented and presented in the form of a process model which was later used as a "microplan" in setting up similar programs in other Tunisian hospitals. In this study the details of the "microplan" are discussed. The development of a nation-wide program without any further need of external assistance illustrated the success of HOPE's implementation strategies.^ Finally, although it is known that the high incidence of enteric disease in developing countries is due to poor environmental sanitation and poor hygiene practices, efforts by aid agencies to correct these conditions have often resulted in failure. Project HOPE's strategy was to maximize limited resources by using a systems approach to program development and by becoming actively involved in the design and implementation of environmental health projects utilizing "appropriate" technology. Three innovative projects and their implementation strategies (including technical specifications) are described.^ It is advocated that if aid agencies are to make any progress in helping developing countries basic sanitation problems, they must take an interdisciplinary approach to progrm development and play an active role in helping counterparts seek and identify appropriate technologies which are socially and economically acceptable. ^

Risk factors of pneumonia in traumatic spinal-cord-injured patients

Pneumonia is a well-documented and common respiratory infection in patients with acute traumatic spinal cord injuries, and may recur during the course of acute care. Using data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) for Spinal Cord Injury, the incidence, timing, and recurrence of pneumonia were analyzed. The two main objectives were (1) to investigate the time and potential risk factors for the first occurrence of pneumonia using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, and (2) to investigate pneumonia recurrence and its risk factors using a Counting Process model that is a generalization of the Cox Proportional Hazards model. The results from survival analysis suggested that surgery, intubation, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) grade, direct admission to a NACTN site and age (older than 65 or not) were significant risks for first event of pneumonia and multiple events of pneumonia. The significance of this research is that it has the potential to identify patients at the time of admission who are at high risk for the incidence and recurrence of pneumonia. Knowledge and the time of occurrence of pneumonias are important factors for the development of prevention strategies and may also provide some insights into the selection of emerging therapies that compromise the immune system. ^

Phytomass and soil carbon storage of different land cover classes in the Usa river basin

This study describes detailed partitioning of phytomass carbon (C) and soil organic carbon (SOC) for four study areas in discontinuous permafrost terrain, Northeast European Russia. The mean aboveground phytomass C storage is 0.7 kg C/m**2. Estimated landscape SOC storage in the four areas varies between 34.5 and 47.0 kg C/m**2 with LCC (land cover classification) upscaling and 32.5-49.0 kg C/m**2 with soil map upscaling. A nested upscaling approach using a Landsat thematic mapper land cover classification for the surrounding region provides estimates within 5 ± 5% of the local high-resolution estimates. Permafrost peat plateaus hold the majority of total and frozen SOC, especially in the more southern study areas. Burying of SOC through cryoturbation of O- or A-horizons contributes between 1% and 16% (mean 5%) of total landscape SOC. The effect of active layer deepening and thermokarst expansion on SOC remobilization is modeled for one of the four areas. The active layer thickness dynamics from 1980 to 2099 is modeled using a transient spatially distributed permafrost model and lateral expansion of peat plateau thermokarst lakes is simulated using geographic information system analyses. Active layer deepening is expected to increase the proportion of SOC affected by seasonal thawing from 29% to 58%. A lateral expansion of 30 m would increase the amount of SOC stored in thermokarst lakes/fens from 2% to 22% of all SOC. By the end of this century, active layer deepening will likely affect more SOC than thermokarst expansion, but the SOC stores vulnerable to thermokarst are less decomposed.

Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

Limits of the Southern Ocean

The knowledge about processes concerning perception and understanding is of paramount importance for designing means of communication like maps and charts. This is especially the case, if one does not want to lose sight of the map-user and if map-design is to be orientated along the map-users needs and preferences in order to improve the cartographic product's usability. A scientific approach to visualization can help to achieve useable results. The insights achieved by such an approach can lead to modes of visualization that are superior to those, which have seemingly proved their value in praxis - so-called "bestpractices" -, concerning their utility and efficiency. This thesis shows this by using the example of visualizing the limits of bodies of waters in the Southern Ocean. After making some introductorily remarks on the chosen mode of problem-solution in chapter one, which simultaneously illustrate the flow of work while working on the problem, in chapter two the relevant information concerning the drawing of limits in the Southern Ocean is outlined. Chapter 3 builds the theoretical framework, which is a multidisciplinary approach to representation. This theoretical framework is based on "How Maps Work" by the American Cartographer MacEachren (1995/2004). His "scientific approach to visualization" is amended and adjusted by the knowledge gained from recent findings of the social sciences where necessary. So, the approach suggested in this thesis represents a synergy of psychology, sociology, semiotics, linguistics, communication theory and cartography. It follows the tradition of interdisciplinary research getting over the boundaries of a single scientific subject. The achieved holistic approach can help to improve the usability of cartographic products. It illustrates on the one hand those processes taking place while perceiving and recognizing cartographic information - so-called bottom-up-processes. On the other hand it illuminates the processes which happen during understanding this information in so-called top-down-processes. Bottom-up- and top-down-processes are interdependent and inseparably interrelated and therefore cannot be understood without each other. Regarding aspects of usability the approach suggested in this thesis strongly focuses on the map-user. This is the reason why the phenomenon of communication gains more weight than in MacEachren's map-centered approach. Because of this, in chapter 4 a holistic approach to communication is developed. This approach makes clear that only the map-user can evaluate the usability of a cartographic product. Only if he can extract the information relevant for him from the cartographical product, it is really useable. The concept of communication is well suited to conceive that. In case of the visualization of limits of bodies of water in the Southern Ocean, which is not complex enough to illustrate all results of the theoretical considerations, it is suggested to visualize the limits with red lines. This suggestion deviates from the commonly used mode of visualization. So, this thesis shows how theory is able to ameliorate praxis. Chapter 5 leads back to the task of fixing limits of the bodies of water in the area of concern. A convention by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) states that those limits should be drawn by using meridians, parallels, rhumb lines and bathymetric data. Based on the available bathymetric data both a representation and a process model are calculated, which should support the drawing of the limits. The quality of both models, which depends on the quality of the bathymetric data at hand, leads to the decision that the representation model is better suited to support the drawing of limits.

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

Triple-junction solar cell performance under Fresnel-based concentrators taking into account chromatic aberration and off-axis operation

Concentration photovoltaic (CPV) systems might produce quite uneven irradiance distributions (both on their level and on their spectral distribution) on the solar cell. This effect can be even more evident when the CPV system is slightly off-axis, since they are often designed to assure good uniformity only at normal incidence. The non-uniformities both in absolute irradiance and spectral content produced by the CPV systems, can originate electrical losses in multi-junction solar cells (MJSC). This works is focused on the integration of ray-tracing methods for simulating the irradiance and spectrum maps produced by different optic systems throughout the solar cell surface, with a 3D fully distributed circuit model which simulates the electrical behavior of a state-of-the-art triple-junction solar cell under the different light distributions obtained with ray-tracing. In this study four different CPV system (SILO, XTP, RTP, and FK) comprising Fresnel lenses concentrating sunlight onto the same solar cell are modeled when working on-axis and 0.6 degrees off-axis. In this study the impact of non-uniformities on a CPV system behavior is revealed. The FK outperforms other Fresnel-based CPV systems in both on-axis and off-axis conditions.

Structural challenges in multijunction solar cells for ultra-high CPV

The paths towards high efficiency multijunction solar cells operating inside real concentrators at ultra high concentration (>1000 suns) are described. The key addressed factors comprehend: 1) the development of an optimized tunnel junction with a high peak current density (240 A/cm2) to mitigate the non-uniform light profiles created by concentrators, 2) the inclusion of highly conductive semiconductor lateral layers to minimize the effects of the non-uniform light profiles in general, and the chromatic aberration in particular; and 3) an adequate design of reliability studies to test multijunction solar cells for real operation conditions in order to determine the fragile parts in the device and improve them. These challenges are faced by means of experimental and theoretical investigation using a quasi-3D distributed circuital model.

Experimental confirmation of FK concentrator insensitivity to chromatic aberrations

The FK concentrator has demonstrated during the last years that compares very well with other Fresnel-based concentrator optics for CPV. There are several features that provide the FK high performance: (1) high optical efficiency; (2) large tolerance to tracking misalignment and manufacturing errors, thanks to a high CAP (Concentration-Acceptance Product); (3) good irradiance uniformity and low chromatic dispersion on the cell surface. Non-uniformities in terms of absolute irradiance and spectral content produced by conventional CPV systems can originate electrical losses in multi-junction (MJ) solar cells. The aim of this work is to analyze the influence of these non-uniformities in the FK concentrator performance and how FK concentrator provides high electrical efficiencies thanks to its insensitivity to chromatic aberrations, especially when components move away from the module nominal position due to manufacturing misalignments. This analysis has been done here by means of both, experimental on-sun measurements and simulations based on 3D fully distributed circuit model for MJ cells.

Diseño de una metodología CASE de desarrollo de software

En la actualidad existe una gran expectación ante la introducción de nuevas herramientas y métodos para el desarrollo de productos software, que permitirán en un futuro próximo un planteamiento de ingeniería del proceso de producción software. Las nuevas metodologías que empiezan a esbozarse suponen un enfoque integral del problema abarcando todas las fases del esquema productivo. Sin embargo el grado de automatización conseguido en el proceso de construcción de sistemas es muy bajo y éste está centrado en las últimas fases del ciclo de vida del software, consiguiéndose así una reducción poco significativa de sus costes y, lo que es aún más importante, sin garantizar la calidad de los productos software obtenidos. Esta tesis define una metodología de desarrollo software estructurada que se puede automatizar, es decir una metodología CASE. La metodología que se presenta se ajusta al modelo de ciclo de desarrollo CASE, que consta de las fases de análisis, diseño y pruebas; siendo su ámbito de aplicación los sistemas de información. Se establecen inicialmente los principios básicos sobre los que la metodología CASE se asienta. Posteriormente, y puesto que la metodología se inicia con la fijación de los objetivos de la empresa que demanda un sistema informático, se emplean técnicas que sirvan de recogida y validación de la información, que proporcionan a la vez un lenguaje de comunicación fácil entre usuarios finales e informáticos. Además, estas mismas técnicas detallarán de una manera completa, consistente y sin ambigüedad todos los requisitos del sistema. Asimismo, se presentan un conjunto de técnicas y algoritmos para conseguir que desde la especificación de requisitos del sistema se logre una automatización tanto del diseño lógico del Modelo de Procesos como del Modelo de Datos, validados ambos conforme a la especificación de requisitos previa. Por último se definen unos procedimientos formales que indican el conjunto de actividades a realizar en el proceso de construcción y cómo llevarlas a cabo, consiguiendo de esta manera una integridad en las distintas etapas del proceso de desarrollo.---ABSTRACT---Nowdays there is a great expectation with regard to the introduction of new tools and methods for the software products development that, in the very near future will allow, an engineering approach in the software development process. New methodologies, just emerging, imply an integral approach to the problem, including all the productive scheme stages. However, the automatization degree obtained in the systems construction process is very low and focused on the last phases of the software lifecycle, which means that the costs reduction obtained is irrelevant and, which is more important, the quality of the software products is not guaranteed. This thesis defines an structured software development methodology that can be automated, that is a CASE methodology. Such a methodology is adapted to the CASE development cycle-model, which consists in analysis, design and testing phases, being the information systems its field of application. Firstly, we present the basic principies on which CASE methodology is based. Secondly, since the methodology starts from fixing the objectives of the company demanding the automatization system, we use some techniques that are useful for gathering and validating the information, being at the same time an easy communication language between end-users and developers. Indeed, these same techniques will detail completely, consistently and non ambiguously all the system requirements. Likewise, a set of techniques and algorithms are shown in order to obtain, from the system requirements specification, an automatization of the Process Model logical design, and of the Data Model logical design. Those two models are validated according to the previous requirement specification. Finally, we define several formal procedures that suggest which set of activities to be accomplished in the construction process, and how to carry them out, getting in this way integrity and completness for the different stages of the development process.

Methodology for developing and application outsourcing in the cloud using SOA

New technologies such as, the new Information and Communication Technology ICT, break new paths and redefines the way we understand business, the Cloud Computing is one of them. The on demand resource gathering and the per usage payment scheme are now commonplace, and allows companies to save on their ICT investments. Despite the importance of this issue, we still lack methodologies that help companies, to develop applications oriented for its exploitation in the Cloud. In this study we aim to fill this gap and propose a methodology for the development of ICT applications, which are directed towards a business model, and further outsourcing in the Cloud. In the former the Development of SOA applications, we take, as a baseline scenario, a business model from which to obtain a business process model. To this end, we use software engineering tools; and in the latter The Outsourcing we propose a guide that would facilitate uploading business models into the Cloud; to this end we describe a SOA governance model, which controls the SOA. Additionally we propose a Cloud government that integrates Service Level Agreements SLAs, plus SOA governance, and Cloud architecture. Finally we apply our methodology in an example illustrating our proposal. We believe that our proposal can be used as a guide/pattern for the development of business applications.

GPS-PYMEs: Marco de Gestión de Proyectos para el desarrollo Seguro en PYMEs

En la actualidad no se concibe una empresa, por pequeña que esta sea, sin algún tipo de servicio TI. Se presenta para cada empresa el reto de emprender proyectos para desarrollar o contratar servicios de TI que soporten los diferentes procesos de negocio de la empresa. Por otro lado, a menos que los servicios de TI estén aislados de toda red, lo cual es prácticamente imposible en la actualidad, no existe un servicio o un proyecto que lo desarrolle garantizando el 100% de seguridad. Así la empresa maneja una dualidad entre desarrollar productos/servicios de TI seguros y el mantenimiento constante de sus servicios TI en estado seguro. La gestión de los proyectos para el desarrollo de los servicios de TI se aborda, en la mayoría de las empresas, aplicando distintas prácticas, utilizadas en otros proyectos y recomendadas, a tal efecto, por marcos y estándares con mayor reconocimiento. Por lo general, estos marcos incluyen, entre sus procesos, la gestión de los riesgos orientada al cumplimiento de plazos, de costes y, a veces, de la funcionalidad del producto o servicio. Sin embargo, en estas prácticas se obvian los aspectos de seguridad (confidencialidad, integridad y disponibilidad) del producto/servicio, necesarios durante el desarrollo del proyecto. Además, una vez entregado el servicio, a nivel operativo, cuando surge algún fallo relativo a estos aspectos de seguridad, se aplican soluciones ad-hoc. Esto provoca grandes pérdidas y, en ocasiones, pone en peligro la continuidad de la propia empresa. Este problema, se va acrecentando cada día más, en cualquier tipo de empresa y, son las PYMEs, por su la falta de conocimiento del problema en sí y la escasez de recursos metodológicos y técnicos, las empresas más vulnerables. Por todo lo anterior, esta tesis doctoral tiene un doble objetivo. En primer lugar, demostrar la necesidad de contar con un marco de trabajo que, integrado con otros posibles marcos y estándares, sea sencillo de aplicar en distintos tipos y envergaduras de proyectos, y que guíe a las PYMEs en la gestión de proyectos para el desarrollo seguro y posterior mantenimiento de la seguridad de sus servicios de TI. En segundo lugar, cubrir esta necesidad desarrollando un marco de trabajo que ofrezca un modelo de proceso genérico aplicable sobre distintos patrones de proyecto y una librería de activos de seguridad que sirva a las PYMEs de guía durante el proceso de gestión del proyecto para el desarrollo seguro. El modelo de proceso del marco propuesto describe actividades en los tres niveles organizativos de la empresa (estratégico, táctico y operativo). Está basado en el ciclo de mejora continua (PDCA) y en la filosofía Seguridad por Diseño, propuesta por Siemens. Se detallan las prácticas específicas de cada actividad, las entradas, salidas, acciones, roles, KPIs y técnicas aplicables para cada actividad. Estas prácticas específicas pueden aplicarse o no, a criterio del jefe de proyecto y de acuerdo al estado de la empresa y proyecto que se quiera desarrollar, estableciendo así distintos patrones de proceso. Para la validación del marco se han elegido dos PYMEs. La primera del sector servicios y la segunda del sector TIC. El modelo de proceso ha sido aplicado sobre un mismo patrón de proyecto que responde a necesidades comunes a ambas empresas. El patrón de proceso ha sido valorado en los proyectos elegidos en ambas empresas, antes y después de su aplicación. Los resultados del estudio, después de su aplicación en ambas empresas, han permitido la validación del patrón de proceso, en la mejora de la gestión de proyecto para el desarrollo seguro de TI en las PYMEs. ABSTRACT Today a company without any IT service is not conceived, even if it is small either. It presents the challenge for each company to undertake projects to develop or contract IT services that support the different business processes of the company. On the other hand, unless IT services are isolated from whole network, which is virtually impossible at present, there is no service or project, which develops guaranteeing 100% security. So the company handles a duality, develop products / insurance IT services and constant maintenance of their IT services in a safe state. The project management for the development of IT services is addressed, in most companies, using different practices used in other projects and recommended for this purpose by frameworks and standards with greater recognition. Generally, these frameworks include, among its processes, risk management aimed at meeting deadlines, costs and, sometimes, the functionality of the product or service. However, safety issues such as confidentiality, integrity and availability of the product / service, necessary for the project, they are ignored in these practices. Moreover, once the service delivered at the operational level, when a fault on these safety issues arise, ad-hoc solutions are applied. This causes great losses and sometimes threatens the continuity of the company. This problem is adding more every day, in any kind of business and SMEs are, by their lack of knowledge of the problem itself and the lack of methodological and technical resources, the most vulnerable companies. For all these reasons, this thesis has two objectives. Firstly demonstrate the need for a framework that integrated with other possible frameworks and standards, it is simple to apply in different types and wingspans of projects, and to guide SMEs in the management of development projects safely, and subsequent maintenance of the security of their IT services. Secondly meet this need by developing a framework that provides a generic process model applicable to project different patterns and a library of security assets, which serve to guide SMEs in the process of project management for development safe. The process model describes the proposed activities under the three organizational levels of the company (strategic, tactical and operational). It is based on the continuous improvement cycle (PDCA) and Security Design philosophy proposed by Siemens. The specific practices, inputs, outputs, actions, roles, KPIs and techniques applicable to each activity are detailed. These specific practices can be applied or not, at the discretion of the project manager and according to the state of the company and project that the company wants to develop, establishing different patterns of process. Two SMEs have been chosen to validate the frame work. The first of the services sector and the second in the ICT sector. The process model has been applied on the same pattern project that responds to needs common to both companies. The process pattern has been valued at the selected projects in both companies before and after application. The results of the study, after application in both companies have enabled pattern validation process, improving project management for the safe development of IT in SMEs.

Computación celular con membranas: un estudio de modelos de cómputo bioinspirados

Los resultados presentados en la memoria de esta tesis doctoral se enmarcan en la denominada computación celular con membranas una nueva rama de investigación dentro de la computación natural creada por Gh. Paun en 1998, de ahí que habitualmente reciba el nombre de sistemas P. Este nuevo modelo de cómputo distribuido está inspirado en la estructura y funcionamiento de la célula. El objetivo de esta tesis ha sido analizar el poder y la eficiencia computacional de estos sistemas de computación celular. En concreto, se han analizado dos tipos de sistemas P: por un lado los sistemas P de neuronas de impulsos, y por otro los sistemas P con proteínas en las membranas. Para el primer tipo, los resultados obtenidos demuestran que es posible que estos sistemas mantengan su universalidad aunque muchas de sus características se limiten o incluso se eliminen. Para el segundo tipo, se analiza la eficiencia computacional y se demuestra que son capaces de resolver problemas de la clase de complejidad ESPACIO-P (PSPACE) en tiempo polinómico. Análisis del poder computacional: Los sistemas P de neuronas de impulsos (en adelante SN P, acrónimo procedente del inglés «Spiking Neural P Systems») son sistemas inspirados en el funcionamiento neuronal y en la forma en la que los impulsos se propagan por las redes sinápticas. Los SN P bio-inpirados poseen un numeroso abanico de características que ha cen que dichos sistemas sean universales y por tanto equivalentes, en poder computacional, a una máquina de Turing. Estos sistemas son potentes a nivel computacional, pero tal y como se definen incorporan numerosas características, quizás demasiadas. En (Ibarra et al. 2007) se demostró que en estos sistemas sus funcionalidades podrían ser limitadas sin comprometer su universalidad. Los resultados presentados en esta memoria son continuistas con la línea de trabajo de (Ibarra et al. 2007) y aportan nuevas formas normales. Esto es, nuevas variantes simplificadas de los sistemas SN P con un conjunto mínimo de funcionalidades pero que mantienen su poder computacional universal. Análisis de la eficiencia computacional: En esta tesis se ha estudiado la eficiencia computacional de los denominados sistemas P con proteínas en las membranas. Se muestra que este modelo de cómputo es equivalente a las máquinas de acceso aleatorio paralelas (PRAM) o a las máquinas de Turing alterantes ya que se demuestra que un sistema P con proteínas, es capaz de resolver un problema ESPACIOP-Completo como el QSAT(problema de satisfacibilidad de fórmulas lógicas cuantificado) en tiempo polinómico. Esta variante de sistemas P con proteínas es muy eficiente gracias al poder de las proteínas a la hora de catalizar los procesos de comunicación intercelulares. ABSTRACT The results presented at this thesis belong to membrane computing a new research branch inside of Natural computing. This new branch was created by Gh. Paun on 1998, hence usually receives the name of P Systems. This new distributed computing model is inspired on structure and functioning of cell. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the efficiency and computational power of these computational cellular systems. Specifically there have been analyzed two different classes of P systems. On the one hand it has been analyzed the Neural Spiking P Systems, and on the other hand it has been analyzed the P systems with proteins on membranes. For the first class it is shown that it is possible to reduce or restrict the characteristics of these kind of systems without loss of computational power. For the second class it is analyzed the computational efficiency solving on polynomial time PSACE problems. Computational Power Analysis: The spiking neural P systems (SN P in short) are systems inspired by the way of neural cells operate sending spikes through the synaptic networks. The bio-inspired SN Ps possess a large range of features that make these systems to be universal and therefore equivalent in computational power to a Turing machine. Such systems are computationally powerful, but by definition they incorporate a lot of features, perhaps too much. In (Ibarra et al. in 2007) it was shown that their functionality may be limited without compromising its universality. The results presented herein continue the (Ibarra et al. 2007) line of work providing new formal forms. That is, new SN P simplified variants with a minimum set of functionalities but keeping the universal computational power. Computational Efficiency Analisys: In this thesis we study the computational efficiency of P systems with proteins on membranes. We show that this computational model is equivalent to parallel random access machine (PRAM) or alternating Turing machine because, we show P Systems with proteins can solve a PSPACE-Complete problem as QSAT (Quantified Propositional Satisfiability Problem) on polynomial time. This variant of P Systems with proteins is very efficient thanks to computational power of proteins to catalyze inter-cellular communication processes.

O nexo causal entre crédito rural e crescimento do produto agropecuário na economia brasileira

O nexo causal entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico vem ganhando destaque na literatura desde o início dos anos 1990. As principais linhas teóricas nessa área buscam demonstrar qual a significância da relação e o sentido da causalidade, se houver. Causalidade unidirecional no sentido do desenvolvimento financeiro para o crescimento econômico, bicausalidade entre ambos, e causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento para o desenvolvimento financeiro, são as principais hipóteses testadas nas pesquisas empíricas. O presente trabalho de tese tem por objetivo avaliar o nexo causal entre crédito (como um indicador do desenvolvimento financeiro) e crescimento no setor agropecuário brasileiro. O crédito rural como proporção do PIB agropecuário cresceu substancialmente desde meados da década de 90, passando de 15,44% em 1996 para 65,24% em 2014. Ao longo do período 1969-2014, a razão média anual entre crédito rural e PIB agropecuário foi de 43,87%. No mesmo período, o produto agropecuário cresceu em média 3,76% ao ano. Questiona-se se no mercado rural o crédito causa o crescimento agropecuário, se ocorre causalidade reversa ou se se opera a hipótese de bicausalidade. Para avaliar o nexo causal entre essas duas variáveis econômica foram empregados quatro procedimentos metodológicos: teste de causalidade de Granger em uma representação VAR com a abordagem de Toda e Yamamoto, teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS), teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) e teste de causalidade de Granger no domínio da frequência, com o uso do método de Breitung e Candelon. Os resultados mostram de forma uniforme a presença de causalidade unidirecional do crédito rural para o crescimento do produto agropecuário. Causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento agropecuário para o crédito rural, não foi detectada de forma significativa em nenhum dos quatro métodos empregados. A não detecção de bicausalidade pode ser uma evidência do impacto da forte política de subsídio governamental ao crédito rural. A decisão do Governo quanto ao montante anual de crédito rural disponível a taxas de juros subsidiadas pode estar impedindo que o desempenho do setor, medido pela sua taxa de crescimento, exerça uma influência significativa na dinâmica do crédito rural. Os resultados também abrem a possibilidade a testar a hipótese de exogeneidade do crédito rural, o que seria uma extensão direta dos resultados obtidos.