Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability

The distributional consequences of a fiscal food policy: evidence from the UK

The literature on fiscal food policies focuses on their effectiveness in altering diets and improving health, while this paper focuses on their welfare costs. A formal welfare economics framework is developed to calculate the combined individualistic and distributional impacts of a tax-subsidy. Distributional characteristics of foods targeted by a tax tend to be concentrated in lower-income households. Further, consumption of fruit and vegetables tends to be concentrated in higher-income households; therefore, a subsidy on such foods increases regressivity. Aggregate welfare changes that result from a fiscal food policy are found to range from an increase of 1.41 per cent to a reduction of 2.06 per cent according to whether a subsidy is included, the degree of inequality aversion, and whether substitution among foods is allowed.

The politics of fiscal policy during economic downturns, 1981-2010

This article investigates fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession in historical perspective. We explore general trends in the frequency, size and composition of fiscal stimulus as well as the impact of government partisanship on fiscal policy outputs during the four international recessions of 1980-81, 1990-91, 2001-02 and 2008-09. Encompassing 17-23 OECD countries, our analysis calls into question the idea of a general retreat from fiscal policy activism since the early 1980s. The propensity of governments to respond to economic downturns by engaging in fiscal stimulus has increased over time and we do not observe any secular trend in the size of stimulus measures. At the same time, OECD governments have relied more on tax cuts to stimulate demand in the two recessions of the 2000s than they did in the early 1980s or early 1990s. Regarding government partisanship, we do not find any significant direct partisan effects on either the size or the composition of fiscal stimulus for any of the four recession episodes. However, the size of the welfare state conditioned the impact of government partisanship in the two recessions of the 2000s, with Left-leaning governments distinctly more prone to engage in discretionary fiscal stimulus and/or spending increases in large welfare states, but not in small welfare states.

Fiscal responsibility and Australian Commonwealth, State and Territory government budgets

The government sector in Australia has seen the introduction of accrual accounting principles in recent years. However, this process has been complicated by the presence of two alternative financial reporting frameworks in the form of a) the Government Finance Statistics (OFS) uniform framework and b) the accrual accounting rules specified in Australian professional accounting standards, principally AAS 31. While a variety of cash and accrual based measurements are available pursuant to these frameworks, there has been no prescription of the manner in which the alternative measures should be presented. This paper presents the findings from a case study of the 2005-06 annual budgets prepared by the Australian Commonwealth government and the governments of the six Australian States and the two Australian Territories. The study examined the headlined financial outcome (general government sector budget surplus or deficit) announced in the budget papers of the nine governments. Findings indicate the adoption of varying measurement bases and a consequent lack of inter-government comparability. A number of variations to the measurements prescribed in the accounting frameworks were also observed. The paper analyses these government budget surplus and deficit numbers in the context of fiscal responsibility, the Commonwealth government's Charter of Budget Honesty and the AASB's current GAAPIGFS Convergence project.

Aid, economic reform, and public sector fiscal behaviour in developing countries

This paper looks at interactions between foreign development aid, economic reform, and public sector fiscal behavior. It proposes a model of the public sector fiscal response to aid inflows, which allows for changes in structural relationships due to an exogenously imposed program of economic reform. This model is applied to 1960–99 time series data for the Philippines, which embarked on an IMF- and World Bank-funded structural adjustment program in 1980. Estimates of structural and reduced-form equations paint a dismal picture of the effectiveness of foreign aid to, and the structural adjustment program in, the Philippines so far as fiscal impacts are concerned. Both bilateral and multilateral aid inflows, and the presence of an economic reform program, are associated with decreases in public fixed capital expenditure, decreases in taxation and other recurrent revenue, and decreases in public sector saving. Multilateral aid also appears to be highly fungible.

Aid, debt burden and government fiscal behaviour in Côte d'Ivoire

This paper examines the impact of foreign aid on public sector fiscal behaviour in Co^te d’Ivoire. A special interest is the relationship between aid, debt servicing and debt, given that Coˆte d’Ivoire is a highly indebted country. The theoretical model employed differs from those of previous studies by highlighting the interaction between debt servicing and the other fiscal variables, providing information on aid and fiscal behaviour that its predecessors cannot. This model is estimated using 1975–99 time series data. Two key findings emerge: (i) the majority of aid inflows are allocated to expenditure on debt servicing; and (ii) these inflows are associated with increases in the level of public debt.

The effect of fiscal policy on diet, obesity and chronic disease : a systematic review

Objective To assess the effect of food taxes and subsidies on diet, body weight and health through a systematic review of the literature.

Methods We searched the English-language published and grey literature for empirical and modelling studies on the effects of monetary subsidies or taxes levied on specific food products on consumption habits, body weight and chronic conditions. Empirical studies were dealing with an actual tax, while modelling studies predicted outcomes based on a hypothetical tax or subsidy.

Findings Twenty-four studies met the inclusion criteria: 13 were from the peer-reviewed literature and 11 were published on line. There were 8 empirical and 16 modelling studies. Nine studies assessed the impact of taxes on food consumption only, 5 on consumption and body weight, 4 on consumption and disease and 6 on body weight only. In general, taxes and subsidies influenced consumption in the desired direction, with larger taxes being associated with more significant changes in consumption, body weight and disease incidence. However, studies that focused on a single target food or nutrient may have overestimated the impact of taxes by failing to take into account shifts in consumption to other foods. The quality of the evidence was generally low. Almost all studies were conducted in high-income countries.

Conclusion Food taxes and subsidies have the potential to contribute to healthy consumption patterns at the population level. However, current evidence is generally of low quality and the empirical evaluation of existing taxes is a research priority, along with research into the effectiveness and differential impact of food taxes in developing countries.