Development and evaluation of a spatial decision support system for malaria elimination in Bhutan

Background: Bhutan has reduced its malaria incidence significantly in the last 5 years, and is aiming for malaria elimination by 2016. To assist with the management of the Bhutanese malaria elimination programme a spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed. The current study aims to describe SDSS development and evaluate SDSS utility and acceptability through informant interviews. Methods: The SDSS was developed based on the open-source Quantum geographical information system (QGIS) and piloted to support the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar District. It was subsequently used to support reactive case detection (RACD) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar and two additional sub-districts in Sarpang District. Interviews were conducted to ascertain perceptions on utility and acceptability of 11 informants using the SDSS, including programme and district managers, and field workers. Results: A total of 1502 households with a population of 7165 were enumerated in the four sub-districts, and a total of 3491 LLINs were distributed with one LLIN per 1.7 persons. A total of 279 households representing 728 residents were involved with RACD. Informants considered that the SDSS was an improvement on previous methods for organizing LLIN distribution, IRS and RACD, and could be easily integrated into routine malaria and other vector-borne disease surveillance systems. Informants identified some challenges at the programme and field level, including the need for more skilled personnel to manage the SDSS, and more training to improve the effectiveness of SDSS implementation and use of hardware. Conclusions: The SDSS was well accepted and informants expected its use to be extended to other malaria reporting districts and other vector-borne diseases. Challenges associated with efficient SDSS use included adequate skills and knowledge, access to training and support, and availability of hardware including computers and global positioning system receivers.

Simulation and modelling tools for quantitative safety assessments of unmanned aircraft systems and operations

This paper presents two simple simulation and modelling tools designed to aid in the safety assessment required for unmanned aircraft operations within unsegregated airspace. First, a fast pair-wise encounter generator is derived to simulate the See and Avoid environment. The utility of the encounter generator is demonstrated through the development of a hybrid database and a statistical performance evaluation of an autonomous See and Avoid decision and control strategy. Second, an unmanned aircraft mission generator is derived to help visualise the impact of multiple persistent unmanned operations on existing air traffic. The utility of the mission generator is demonstrated through an example analysis of a mixed airspace environment using real traffic data in Australia. These simulation and modelling approaches constitute a useful and extensible set of analysis tools, that can be leveraged to help explore some of the more fundamental and challenging problems facing civilian unmanned aircraft system integration.

Assessment of crop insect damage using unmanned aerial systems: A machine learning approach

Agricultural pests are responsible for millions of dollars in crop losses and management costs every year. In order to implement optimal site-specific treatments and reduce control costs, new methods to accurately monitor and assess pest damage need to be investigated. In this paper we explore the combination of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), remote sensing and machine learning techniques as a promising technology to address this challenge. The deployment of UAVs as a sensor platform is a rapidly growing field of study for biosecurity and precision agriculture applications. In this experiment, a data collection campaign is performed over a sorghum crop severely damaged by white grubs (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). The larvae of these scarab beetles feed on the roots of plants, which in turn impairs root exploration of the soil profile. In the field, crop health status could be classified according to three levels: bare soil where plants were decimated, transition zones of reduced plant density and healthy canopy areas. In this study, we describe the UAV platform deployed to collect high-resolution RGB imagery as well as the image processing pipeline implemented to create an orthoimage. An unsupervised machine learning approach is formulated in order to create a meaningful partition of the image into each of the crop levels. The aim of the approach is to simplify the image analysis step by minimizing user input requirements and avoiding the manual data labeling necessary in supervised learning approaches. The implemented algorithm is based on the K-means clustering algorithm. In order to control high-frequency components present in the feature space, a neighbourhood-oriented parameter is introduced by applying Gaussian convolution kernels prior to K-means. The outcome of this approach is a soft K-means algorithm similar to the EM algorithm for Gaussian mixture models. The results show the algorithm delivers decision boundaries that consistently classify the field into three clusters, one for each crop health level. The methodology presented in this paper represents a venue for further research towards automated crop damage assessments and biosecurity surveillance.

BER-optimized linear parallel interference cancellers for multicarrier DS-CDMA systems

In this paper, we consider the design and bit-error performance analysis of linear parallel interference cancellers (LPIC) for multicarrier (MC) direct-sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems. We propose an LPIC scheme where we estimate and cancel the multiple access interference (MAT) based on the soft decision outputs on individual subcarriers, and the interference cancelled outputs on different subcarriers are combined to form the final decision statistic. We scale the MAI estimate on individual subcarriers by a weight before cancellation. In order to choose these weights optimally, we derive exact closed-form expressions for the bit-error rate (BER) at the output of different stages of the LPIC, which we minimize to obtain the optimum weights for the different stages. In addition, using an alternate approach involving the characteristic function of the decision variable, we derive BER expressions for the weighted LPIC scheme, matched filter (MF) detector, decorrelating detector, and minimum mean square error (MMSE) detector for the considered multicarrier DS-CDMA system. We show that the proposed BER-optimized weighted LPIC scheme performs better than the MF detector and the conventional LPIC scheme (where the weights are taken to be unity), and close to the decorrelating and MMSE detectors.

Decision support requirements for intelligent operation of southern grid in India

Control centers (CC) play a very important role in power system operation. An overall view of the system with information about all existing resources and needs is implemented through SCADA (Supervisory control and data acquisition system) and an EMS (energy management system). As advanced technologies have made their way into the utility environment, the operators are flooded with huge amount of data. The last decade has seen extensive applications of AI techniques, knowledge-based systems, Artificial Neural Networks in this area. This paper focuses on the need for development of an intelligent decision support system to assist the operator in making proper decisions. The requirements for realization of such a system are recognized for the effective operation and energy management of the southern grid in India The application of Petri nets leading to decision support system has been illustrated considering 24 bus system that is a part of southern grid.

Information and Decision Technologies

Production scheduling in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is a real-time combinatorial optimization problem that has been proved to be NP-complete. Solving this problem needs on-line monitoring of plan execution and requires real-time decision-making in selecting alternative routings, assigning required resources, and rescheduling when failures occur in the system. Expert systems provide a natural framework for solving this kind of NP-complete problems.In this paper an expert system with a novel parallel heuristic approach is implemented for automatic short-term dynamic scheduling of FMS. The principal features of the expert system presented in this paper include easy rescheduling, on-line plan execution, load balancing, an on-line garbage collection process, and the use of advanced knowledge representational schemes. Its effectiveness is demonstrated with two examples.

BER Analysis of Weighted Interference Cancellation in Multicarrier DS-CDMA Systems

In this paper, we present the design and bit error performance analysis of weighted linear parallel interference cancellers (LPIC) for multicarrier (MC) DS-CDMA systems. We propose an LPIC scheme where we estimate (and cancel) the multiple access interference (MAI) based on the soft outputs on individual subcarriers, and the interference cancelled outputs on different subcarriers are combined to form the final decision statistic. We scale the MAI estimate on individual subcarriers by a weight before cancellation; these weights are so chosen to maximize the signal-to-interference ratios at the individual subcarrier outputs. For this weighted LPIC scheme, using an approach involving the characteristic function of the decision variable, we derive exact bit error rate (BER) expressions for different cancellation stages. Using the same approach, we also derive exact BER expressions for the matched filter (MF) and decorrelating detectors for the considered MC DS-CDMA system. We show that the proposed weighted LPIC scheme performs better than the MF detector and the conventional LPIC (where the weights are taken to be unity), and close to the decorrelating detector.

An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes

We develop in this article the first actor-critic reinforcement learning algorithm with function approximation for a problem of control under multiple inequality constraints. We consider the infinite horizon discounted cost framework in which both the objective and the constraint functions are suitable expected policy-dependent discounted sums of certain sample path functions. We apply the Lagrange multiplier method to handle the inequality constraints. Our algorithm makes use of multi-timescale stochastic approximation and incorporates a temporal difference (TD) critic and an actor that makes a gradient search in the space of policy parameters using efficient simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) gradient estimates. We prove the asymptotic almost sure convergence of our algorithm to a locally optimal policy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India

The production of rainfed crops in semi-arid tropics exhibits large variation in response to the variation in seasonal rainfall. There are several farm-level decisions such as the choice of cropping pattern, whether to invest in fertilizers, pesticides etc., the choice of the period for planting, plant population density etc. for which the appropriate choice (associated with maximum production or minimum risk) depends upon the nature of the rainfall variability or the prediction for a specific year. In this paper, we have addressed the problem of identifying the appropriate strategies for cultivation of rainfed groundnut in the Anantapur region in a semi-arid part of the Indian peninsula. The approach developed involves participatory research with active collaboration with farmers, so that the problems with perceived need are addressed with the modern tools and data sets available. Given the large spatial variation of climate and soil, the appropriate strategies are necessarily location specific. With the approach adopted, it is possible to tap the detailed location specific knowledge of the complex rainfed ecosystem and gain an insight into the variety of options of land use and management practices available to each category of stakeholders. We believe such a participatory approach is essential for identifying strategies that have a favourable cost-benefit ratio over the region considered and hence are associated with a high chance of acceptance by the stakeholders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal scheduling of multiple chlorine sources in water distribution systems

The specified range of free chlorine residual (between minimum and maximum) in water distribution systems needs to be maintained to avoid deterioration of the microbial quality of water, control taste and/or odor problems, and hinder formation of carcino-genic disinfection by-products. Multiple water quality sources for providing chlorine input are needed to maintain the chlorine residuals within a specified range throughout the distribution system. The determination of source dosage (i.e., chlorine concentrations/chlorine mass rates) at water quality sources to satisfy the above objective under dynamic conditions is a complex process. A nonlinear optimization problem is formulated to determine the chlorine dosage at the water quality sources subjected to minimum and maximum constraints on chlorine concentrations at all monitoring nodes. A genetic algorithm (GA) approach in which decision variables (chlorine dosage) are coded as binary strings is used to solve this highly nonlinear optimization problem, with nonlinearities arising due to set-point sources and non-first-order reactions. Application of the model is illustrated using three sample water distribution systems, and it indicates that the GA,is a useful tool for evaluating optimal water quality source chlorine schedules.

Integrated Reservoir Operation Modeling for Irrigation Systems - A Multi-Objective Approach

An integrated reservoir operation model is presented for developing effective operational policies for irrigation water management. In arid and semi-arid climates, owing to dynamic changes in the hydroclimatic conditions within a season, the fixed cropping pattern with conventional operating policies, may have considerable impact on the performance of the irrigation system and may affect the economics of the farming community. For optimal allocation of irrigation water in a season, development of effective mathematical models may guide the water managers in proper decision making and consequently help in reducing the adverse effects of water shortage and crop failure problems. This paper presents a multi-objective integrated reservoir operation model for multi-crop irrigation system. To solve the multi-objective model, a recent swarm intelligence technique, namely elitist-mutated multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (EM-MOPSO) has been used and applied to a case study in India. The method evolves effective strategies for irrigation crop planning and operation policies for a reservoir system, and thereby helps farming community in improving crop benefits and water resource usage in the reservoir command area.

Solar energy decision support system

Energy plays a prominent role in human society. As a result of technological and industrial development,the demand for energy is rapidly increasing. Existing power sources that are mainly fossil fuel based are leaving an unacceptable legacy of waste and pollution apart from diminishing stock of fuels.Hence, the focus is now shifted to large-scale propagation of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies are clean sources of energy that have a much lower environmental impact than conventional energy technologies. Solar energy is one such renewable energy. Most renewable energy comes either directly or indirectly from the sun. Estimation of solar energy potential of a region requires detailed solar radiation climatology, and it is necessary to collect extensive radiation data of high accuracy covering all climatic zones of the region. In this regard, a decision support system (DSS)would help in estimating solar energy potential considering the region’s energy requirement.This article explains the design and implementation of DSS for assessment of solar energy. The DSS with executive information systems and reporting tools helps to tap vast data resources and deliver information. The main hypothesis is that this tool can be used to form a core of practical methodology that will result in more resilient in time and can be used by decision-making bodies to assess various scenarios. It also offers means of entering, accessing, and interpreting the information for the purpose of sound decision making.

WEPA: Wind energy potential assessment-spatial decision support system

Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) assist in strategic decision-making activities considering spatial and temporal variables, which help in Regional planning. WEPA is a SDSS designed for assessment of wind potential spatially. A wind energy system transforms the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical or electrical energy that can be harnessed for practical use. Wind energy can diversify the economies of rural communities, adding to the tax base and providing new types of income. Wind turbines can add a new source of property value in rural areas that have a hard time attracting new industry. Wind speed is extremely important parameter for assessing the amount of energy a wind turbine can convert to electricity: The energy content of the wind varies with the cube (the third power) of the average wind speed. Estimation of the wind power potential for a site is the most important requirement for selecting a site for the installation of a wind electric generator and evaluating projects in economic terms. It is based on data of the wind frequency distribution at the site, which are collected from a meteorological mast consisting of wind anemometer and a wind vane and spatial parameters (like area available for setting up wind farm, landscape, etc.). The wind resource is governed by the climatology of the region concerned and has large variability with reference to space (spatial expanse) and time (season) at any fixed location. Hence the need to conduct wind resource surveys and spatial analysis constitute vital components in programs for exploiting wind energy. SDSS for assessing wind potential of a region / location is designed with user friendly GUI’s (Graphic User Interface) using VB as front end with MS Access database (backend). Validation and pilot testing of WEPA SDSS has been done with the data collected for 45 locations in Karnataka based on primary data at selected locations and data collected from the meteorological observatories of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Wind energy and its characteristics have been analysed for these locations to generate user-friendly reports and spatial maps. Energy Pattern Factor (EPF) and Power Densities are computed for sites with hourly wind data. With the knowledge of EPF and mean wind speed, mean power density is computed for the locations with only monthly data. Wind energy conversion systems would be most effective in these locations during May to August. The analyses show that coastal and dry arid zones in Karnataka have good wind potential, which if exploited would help local industries, coconut and areca plantations, and agriculture. Pre-monsoon availability of wind energy would help in irrigating these orchards, making wind energy a desirable alternative.