946 resultados para Decision Theory


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Detrimental effects of diversity in workgroups has frequently been observed but research identifying the factors that lead to negative or positive effects in heterogeneous groups is lacking. The perceived dissimilarity openness moderator model provides one explanation of the process by which diversity influences group affective, behavioral, and cognitive outcomes. Specifically the model identifies individual, group, and organizational openness as moderating the effects of diversity in workgroups. In this paper evidence is provided from a field study that increased openness to perceived dissimilarity leads to better outcomes in newly formed groups. This study also constitutes a significant building block toward the development of theory concerning the moderating variables of the relationship between diversity and group processes, and outcomes of organizations.<br />

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Research over the last 30 years has examined the way in which young people make decisions about participating in sexual behaviours. This research is limited in that theoretical developments in the area have either not been subjected to empirical scrutiny, or are not consistent with empirical findings. The current study used a modified form of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a theoretical position for a longitudinal exploration (over a 6-month period) of sexual decision making in a group of young adult women. One hundred and fifty-six young women aged between 18 and 21 years were involved in the study. Regression analysis were used to evaluate the predictors of intention to engage in six types of sexual behaviours at time 1, as well as experiences of these behaviours at time 2. The study found that intention to engage in sexual behaviour was reasonably well predicted using the constructs of TPB. However, behaviour was not well predicted using the variables in TPB, with the most important predictors of most sexual behaviours being past experience and perceived behavioural control, but not intention to engage in the behaviours. Implications of these findings and directions for future research are discussed.

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Senior management decisions play a critical role not only in organizational performance but also in the competitiveness of Australia in the international arena. In this conceptual paper, I present a multi-level model of affect in strategic decision-making to understand the impact that emotions have on senior managements' decision-making processes. The aim of the model is to extent on current theory (specifically Affective Events Theory) to minimize the negative impact of emotions on decision-making to produce high quality decisions and, consequently, more effective and competitive organizations. Hypotheses, practical implications and future research opportunities are also discussed.

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Forest policy decisions inherently involve multiple attributes and risk and uncertainty as they largely deal with complex biological, ecological, and socio-political systems. Identifying risk preferences and quantifying their inter-relationships and tradeoffs are useful in formulating better forest policy. Often, technocrats and experts deal with risky decisions, but ideally, stakeholder risk characteristics should be explicitly considered in making policy decisions. This paper analysed societal risk preferences on public forest land-use attributes using multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). The results indicate significant risk-averse behaviour towards old-growth forest conservation and forest-based recreation but less risk-averse behaviour towards native timber extraction. Overall, the respondents preferred a more conservative forest land-use option, which is consistent with their risk attitudes. The method provides insights into risk preferences of forest stakeholders, which could lead to better understanding of forest management conflicts. Moreover, the method explicitly distinguishes the technical and value components of the decision and is useful in unravelling public risk preferences in multiple-use forest planning situations.<br />

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<b>Contents:</b><br />1. Role of multi-criteria decision making in natural resource management /â Gamini Herath and Tony Prato<br />2. Analysis of forest policy using multi-attribute value theory /â Jayanath Ananda and Gamini Herath<br />3. Comparing Riparian revegetation policy options using the analytic hierarchy process /â M. E. Qureshi and S. R. Harrison<br />4. Managing environmental and health risks from a lead and zinc smelter : an application of deliberative multi-criteria evaluation /â Wendy Proctor, Chris McQuade and Anne Dekker<br />5. Multiple attribute evaluation of management alternatives for the Missouri River System /â Tony Prato<br />6. Multi-criteria decision analysis for integrated watershed management /â Zeyuan Qiu<br />7. Fuzzy multiple attribute evaluation of agricultural systems /â Leonie A. Marks and Elizabeth G. Dunn<br />8. Multi-criteria decision support for energy supply assessment /â Bram Noble<br />9. Seaport development in Vietnam : evaluation using the analytic hierarchy process /â Tran Phuong Dong and David M. Chapman<br />10. Valuing wetland aquatic resources using the analytic hierarchy process /â Premachandra Wattage and Simon Mardle<br />11. Multiple attribute evaluation for national park management /â Tony Prato<br />12. The future of MCDA in natural resource management : some generalizations /â Gamini Herath and Tony Prato.<br /><br /><br />

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This paper investigates the decision to engage in a comprehensive corporate hedging strategy for Australian listed companies. Specifically the pursuit of a comprehensive hedging strategy is gauged by jointly investigating the corporate use of foreign currency derivatives; interest rate derivatives; commodity derivatives and foreign debt. The results show that firm size, leverage, dividend yield and block holdings are incentive factors to the comprehensive hedging decision, while executive shares is a disincentive factor. Consistent with hedging theory, the significance of the leverage variables supports the financial distress cost hypothesis. Support is also found for the dividend decision is a substitute for corporate hedging. <br /><br />

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Automatic events classification is an essential requirement for constructing an effective sports video summary. It has become a well-known theory that the high-level semantics in sport video can be &ldquo;computationally interpreted&rdquo; based on the occurrences of specific audio and visual features which can be extracted automatically. State-of-the-art solutions for features-based event classification have only relied on either manual-knowledge based heuristics or machine learning. To bridge the gaps, we have successfully combined the two approaches by using learning-based heuristics. The heuristics are constructed automatically using decision tree while manual supervision is only required to check the features and highlight contained in each training segment. Thus, fully automated construction of classification system for sports video events has been achieved. A comprehensive experiment on 10 hours video dataset, with five full-match soccer and five full-match basketball videos, has demonstrated the effectiveness/robustness of our algorithms.<br />

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<b>Aims and objectives</b>. To present a model that explicates the dimensions of change and adaptation as revealed by people who are diagnosed and live with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease.<br /><br /><b>Background</b>. Most research about amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease is medically focused on cause and cure for the illness. Although psychological studies have sought to understand the illness experience through questionnaires, little is known about the experience of living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease as described by people with the disease.<br /><br /><b>Design</b>. A grounded theory method of simultaneous data collection and constant comparative analysis was chosen for the conduct of this study.<br /><br /><b>Methods</b>. Data collection involved in-depth interviews, electronic correspondence, field notes, as well as stories, prose, songs and photographs important to participants. QSR NVivo 2&reg; software was used to manage the data and modelling used to illustrate concepts.<br /><br /><b>Findings</b>. Participants used a cyclic, decision-making pattern about 'ongoing change and adaptation' as they lived with the disease. This pattern formed the basis of the model that is presented in this paper.<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b>. The lives of people living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease revolve around the need to make decisions about how to live with the disease progression and their deteriorating abilities. Life decisions were negotiated by participants to maintain a sense of self and well-being in the face of change.<br /><br /><b>Relevance to clinical practice</b>. The 'ongoing change and adaptation' model is a framework that can guide practitioners to understand the decision-making processes of people living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease. Such understanding will enhance caring and promote models of care that are person-centred. The model may also have relevance for people with other life limiting diseases and their care.<br />

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This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of object classification and illustrates the potential use of this technique for the analysis of a range of biological data, using avian morphometric data as an example. The nascent variable precision rough sets (VPRS) model is introduced and compared with the decision tree method ID3 (through a &lsquo;leave n out&rsquo; approach), using the same dataset of morphometric measures of European barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) and assessing the accuracy of gender classification based on these measures. The results demonstrate that the VPRS model, allied with the use of a modern method of discretization of data, is comparable with the more traditional non-parametric ID3 decision tree method. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve classification and to a lesser extent prediction aspects over ID3. Furthermore, through the &lsquo;leave n out&rsquo; approach, some indication can be produced of the relative importance of the different morphometric measures used in this problem. In this case we suggest that VPRS has advantages over ID3, as it intelligently uses more of the morphometric data available for the data classification, whilst placing less emphasis on variables with low reliability. In biological terms, the results suggest that the gender of swallows can be determined with reasonable accuracy from morphometric data and highlight the most important variables in this process. We suggest that both analysis techniques are potentially useful for the analysis of a range of different types of biological datasets, and that VPRS in particular has potential for application to a range of biological circumstances.<br />

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<b>Purpose</b> &ndash; The paper critiques a range of theories and evaluates their ability to provide a lens for explaining the idiosyncratic nature of small firms and their e-business adoption decisions.<br /><b><br />Design/methodology/approach</b> &ndash; This literature review firstly summarises the existing research evidence that shows that small firms are idiosyncratic when it comes to e-business adoption. It then critiques theories commonly used in the literature in this field to examine the extent to which they take this small firm idiosyncrasy into account when explaining e-business adoption decisions.<br /><b><br />Findings </b>&ndash; The critical analysis shows that no commonly-used theory adequately explains small firm adoption of e-business because each omits important aspects of small firm idiosyncrasy. The analysis suggests that an integrated theoretical framework is needed. Preliminary ideas on this framework are provided.<br /><br /><b>Originality/value</b> &ndash; Existing research generally applies a small number of selected theories and formulates research models of adoption factors. However, there is no systematic analysis of theories in this field and no consensus about theoretical frameworks. This paper addresses this limitation of the literature by critically evaluating the commonly used theories in terms of their individual suitability as lenses for explaining small firm e-business adoption. <br />

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This paper discusses the concept of 'Corruption Related Decision-Making' (CRDM) in the context of management decision-making in corruption-related situations in business. CRDM is a potential contribution to the overall contemporary process of re-conceptualising the role of business and the market economy in management theory and practice. This paper addresses a significant gap in current management literature dealing with corruption in business.<br />

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This study examined the criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate business plans in order to make investment decisions. A literature survey revealed two competing theories: 'espoused criteria' where evaluation decisions are based on what venture capitalists say are the decisive factors, versus the use of 'known attributes' that successful ventures actually possess. Brunswik's Lens Model from Social Judgment Theory guided an empirical investigation of several different evaluation methods based on information contained in 129 business plans submitted for venture capital over a three-year period. Data evaluation culminated in the comparison of the percentage of correct decisions ('hit rate') for each method. We found that decisions based on the known attributes of successful ventures have significantly better hit rates than decisions made using espoused criteria. Discussion centered on the goal of achieving consistency in the conduct of venture analysis. Process standardization can aid in the achievement of consistency. Future research will both deepen and broaden insights.

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Learning objectives: To contribute to mental health nurses understanding and knowledge of mental health triage practice through the presentation of current research findings on the topic. A specific focus of the paper will be an overview of how mental health triage practice differs across the lifespan.<br /><br />Mental health triage is a highly specialised area of clinical practice for mental health nursing that is in its infancy in terms of articulating practice and theory. This paper addresses the conference theme of mental health nursing practice: new roles, new challenges by presenting the findings of a qualitative research project that investigated mental health triage/duty/intake practices across the five community mental health agencies of The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne. The overall aim of the project was to work collaboratively with clinicians to further develop the quality and consistency of mental health triage, duty, and intake clinical practice across all arms of Alfred Psychiatry. The project was designed to facilitate the expansion of the mental health triage knowledge base, and thus contribute to the further development of triage clinical practice. One of the unique aspects of the project was its triangulation across the adult triage service (acute), the two Continuing Care Teams, and the specialist psychiatric services such as the Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service, the Homeless and Outreach Psychiatric Service, and the Mobile Aged Psychiatric Service. The project employed focus group method to collect in-depth, qualitative data. A series of nine focus groups were conducted at each site, which concentrated on eliciting data on the core areas of mental health triage practice such as telephone consultation skills, mental status examination, risk assessment, decision-making, negotiation, crisis assessment, secondary consultation, and documentation. The investigation produced a considerable amount of high quality, in-depth data that was analysed using content analysis methods. The project produced data that will make a significant contribution to the expanding body of knowledge on mental health triage practice.<br />

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Electronic commerce and the Internet have created demand for automated systems that can make complex decisions utilizing information from multiple sources. Because the information is uncertain, dynamic, distributed, and heterogeneous in nature, these systems require a great diversity of intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, in complex decision making, many different components or sub-tasks are involved, each of which requires different types of processing. Thus multiple such techniques are required resulting in systems called hybrid intelligent systems. That is, hybrid solutions are crucial for complex problem solving and decision making. There is a growing demand for these systems in many areas including financial investment planning, engineering design, medical diagnosis, and cognitive simulation. However, the design and development of these systems is difficult because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. From a multi-agent perspective, agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) are autonomous and can engage in flexible, high-level interactions. MASs are good at complex, dynamic interactions. Thus a multi-agent perspective is suitable for modeling, design, and construction of hybrid intelligent systems. The aim of this thesis is to develop an agent-based framework for constructing hybrid intelligent systems which are mainly used for complex problem solving and decision making. Existing software development techniques (typically, object-oriented) are inadequate for modeling agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. There is a fundamental mismatch between the concepts used by object-oriented developers and the agent-oriented view. Although there are some agent-oriented methodologies such as the Gaia methodology, there is still no specifically tailored methodology available for analyzing and designing agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. To this end, a methodology is proposed, which is specifically tailored to the analysis and design of agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. The methodology consists of six models - role model, interaction model, agent model, skill model, knowledge model, and organizational model. This methodology differs from other agent-oriented methodologies in its skill and knowledge models. As good decisions and problem solutions are mainly based on adequate information, rich knowledge, and appropriate skills to use knowledge and information, these two models are of paramount importance in modeling complex problem solving and decision making. Follow the methodology, an agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent system construction used in complex problem solving and decision making was developed. The framework has several crucial characteristics that differentiate this research from others. Four important issues relating to the framework are also investigated. These cover the building of an ontology for financial investment, matchmaking in middle agents, reasoning in problem solving and decision making, and decision aggregation in MASs. The thesis demonstrates how to build a domain-specific ontology and how to access it in a MAS by building a financial ontology. It is argued that the practical performance of service provider agents has a significant impact on the matchmaking outcomes of middle agents. It is proposed to consider service provider agents' track records in matchmaking. A way to provide initial values for the track records of service provider agents is also suggested. The concept of â˜reasoning with multimedia informationâ is introduced, and reasoning with still image information using symbolic projection theory is proposed. How to choose suitable aggregation operations is demonstrated through financial investment application and three approaches are proposed - the stationary agent approach, the token-passing approach, and the mobile agent approach to implementing decision aggregation in MASs. Based on the framework, a prototype was built and applied to financial investment planning. This prototype consists of one serving agent, one interface agent, one decision aggregation agent, one planning agent, four decision making agents, and five service provider agents. Experiments were conducted on the prototype. The experimental results show the framework is flexible, robust, and fully workable. All agents derived from the methodology exhibit their behaviors correctly as specified.