Saving the Australian War Effort in 1916? The Significance and Impact of Global Climatic Conditions and Pests on William Morris Hughes’ Negotiations with the British Government

Taking up the thesis of Dipesh Chakrabarty (2009) that human history (including cultural history) on the one hand and natural history on the other must be brought into conversation more than has been done so in the past, this presentation will focus more closely on the significance and the impact of global climatic conditions and pests on the negotiations that Australian Prime Minister William Morris Hughes carried on with the British government between March and November 1916. Whereas Australia had been able to sell most of its produce in 1914 and 1915 the situation looked more serious in 1916, not least due to the growing shortage in shipping. It was therefore imperative for the Australian government to find a way to solve this problem, not least because it wanted to keep up its own war effort at the pace it had been going so far. In this context intentions to make or press ahead with a contribution to a war perceived to be more total those of the past interacted with natural phenomena such as the declining harvest in many parts of the world in 1916 as a consequence of climatic conditions as well as pests in many parts of the world.

Links between atmospheric carbon dioxide, the land carbon reservoir and climate over the past millennium

The stability of terrestrial carbon reservoirs is thought to be closely linked to variations in climate 1, but the magnitude of carbon–climate feedbacks has proved dificult to constrain for both modern 2–4 and millennial 5–13 timescales. Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the past thousand years have shown fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales 5–7, but the causes of these fluctuations are unclear. Here we report high-resolution carbon isotope measurements of CO2 trapped within the ice of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core for the past 1,000 years. We use a deconvolution approach 14 to show that changes in terrestrial organic carbon stores best explain the observed multidecadal variations in the 13 C of CO2 and in CO2 concentrations from 755 to 1850 CE. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes over this interval, the emissions must have been offset by a natural terrestrial sink for 13 C-depleted carbon, such as peatlands. We find that on multidecadal timescales, carbon cycle changes seem to vary with reconstructed regional climate changes. We conclude that climate variability could be an important control of fluctuations in land carbon storage on these timescales.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Depositional modes and lake-level variability at Lake Towuti, Indonesia, during the past ~29 kyr BP

Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121.5°E) is a long-lived, tectonic lake located on the Island of Sulawesi, Indonesia, and in the center of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Lake Towuti is connected with upstream lakes Matano and Mahalona through the Mahalona River, which constitutes the largest inlet to the lake. The Mahalona River Delta is prograding into Lake Towuti’s deep northern basin thus exerting significant control on depositional processes in the basin. We combine high-resolution seismic reflection and sedimentological datasets from a 19.8-m-long sediment piston core from the distal edge of this delta to characterize fluctuations in deltaic sedimentation during the past ~29 kyr BP and their relation to climatic change. Our datasets reveal that, in the present, sedimentation is strongly influenced by deposition of laterally transported sediments sourced from the Mahalona River Delta. Variations in the amount of laterally transported sediments, as expressed by coarse fraction amounts in pelagic muds and turbidite recurrence rates and cumulative thicknesses, are primarily a function of lake-level induced delta slope instability and delta progradation into the basin. We infer lowest lake-levels between ~29 and 16, a gradual lake level rise between ~16 and 11, and high lake-levels between ~11 and 0 kyr BP. Periods of highest turbidite deposition, ~26 to 24 and ~18 to 16 kyr BP coincide with Heinrich events 2 and 1, respectively. Our lake-level reconstruction therefore supports previous observations based on geochemical hydroclimate proxies of a very dry last glacial and a wet Holocene in the region, and provides new evidence of millennial-scale variations in moisture balance in the IPWP.

Complex geomorphologic assemblage of terrains in association with the banded terrain in Hellas basin, Mars

Hellas basin acts as a major sink for the southern highlands of Mars and is likely to have recorded several episodes of sedimentation and erosion. The north-western part of the basin displays a potentially unique Amazonian landscape domain in the deepest part of Hellas, called “banded terrain”, which is a deposit characterized by an alternation of narrow band shapes and inter-bands displaying a sinuous and relatively smooth surface texture suggesting a viscous flow origin. Here we use high-resolution (HiRISE and CTX) images to assess the geomorphological interaction of the banded terrain with the surrounding geomorphologic domains in the NW interior of Hellas to gain a better understanding of the geological evolution of the region as a whole. Our analysis reveals that the banded terrain is associated with six geomorphologic domains: a central plateau named Alpheus Colles, plain deposits (P1 and P2), reticulate (RT1 and RT2) and honeycomb terrains. Based on the analysis of the geomorphology of these domains and their cross-cutting relationships, we show that no widespread deposition post-dates the formation of the banded terrain, which implies that this domain is the youngest and latest deposit of the interior of Hellas. Therefore, the level of geologic activity in the NW Hellas during the Amazonian appears to have been relatively low and restricted to modification of the landscape through mechanical weathering, aeolian and periglacial processes. Thermophysical data and cross-cutting relationships support hypotheses of modification of the honeycomb terrain via vertical rise of diapirs such as ice diapirism, and the formation of the plain deposits through deposition and remobilization of an ice-rich mantle deposit. Finally, the observed gradual transition between honeycomb and banded terrain suggests that the banded terrain may have covered a larger area of the NW interior of Hellas in the past than previously thought. This has implications on the understanding of the evolution of the deepest part of Hellas.

Twenty years' experience with the Swiss data registry for assisted reproductive medicine: outcomes, key trends and recommendations for improved practice.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY The impact of assisted reproductive technology (ART) on Swiss demography was quantified. From 1993 to 2012 the number of deliveries, including multiples, generated by ART was compared with overall delivery numbers. Swiss experts in ART collaborated in a consensus to increase successful outcomes, to reduce the incidence of complications of ART and to validate recommendations through statistical review of available data. METHODS Data generated between 1993 and 2012 and published by the Federal Office of Statistics (BfS) were compared with the Swiss database on ART (FIVNAT-CH) as organised by the Swiss Society of Reproductive Medicine (SGRM). From these analyses a panel of Swiss experts in ART extracted recommendations to improve current practice, to prevent complications related to ART and to recommend changes in current Swiss legislation dealing with ART. RESULTS Since 1993 the age of women giving birth rose together with the number of women asking for ART. This demographic trend was reflected in a rise in the number of deliveries generated by ART (in 2012: 2.2%) and the proportion of multiple births (in 2012: 17.6%). The outcome of ART was most negatively influenced by the age of the treated patient. The number of retrieved oocytes decisively impacted the likelihood of delivery, the risk of multiple births and the incidence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Optimal ovarian stimulation should be designed for the retrieval of 10 to 15 oocytes per treatment. Swiss legislation should enable and stimulate a policy of elective single embryo transfer to avoid multiple births.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Ocean dynamics, not dust, have controlled equatorial Pacific productivity over the past 500,000 years

Biological productivity in the equatorial Pacific is relatively high compared with other low-latitude regimes, especially east of the dateline, where divergence driven by the trade winds brings nutrient rich waters of the Equatorial Undercurrent to the surface. The equatorial Pacific is one of the three principal high-nutrient low chlorophyll ocean regimes where biological utilization of nitrate and phosphate is limited, in part, by the availability of iron. Throughout most of the equatorial Pacific, upwelling of water from the Equatorial Undercurrent supplies far more dissolved iron than is delivered by dust, by as much as two orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, recent studies have inferred that the greater supply of dust during ice ages stimulated greater utilization of nutrients within the region of upwelling on the equator, thereby contributing to the sequestration of carbon in the ocean interior. Here we present proxy records for dust and for biological productivity over the past 500 ky at three sites spanning the breadth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to test the dust fertilization hypothesis. Dust supply peaked under glacial conditions, consistent with previous studies, whereas proxies of export production exhibit maxima during ice age terminations. Temporal decoupling between dust supply and biological productivity indicates that other factors, likely involving ocean dynamics, played a greater role than dust in regulating equatorial Pacific productivity.

The illness experience of persons with Parkinson's Disease

Background. Parkinson's disease is a chronic, progressive, age-related, neurodegenerative disorder with no known cause or promising cure. While substantial information is known about the pathophysiology of Parkinson's disease, little is known about the illness experience of persons living with the disease. The purpose of this study was to understand how persons with Parkinson's disease construct their illness experience and manage living with their illness on a daily basis. ^ Method. A qualitative study with an ethnographic approach employed the strategies of participant observations and fieldwork. Field data were generated from a two year exposure to two Parkinson's disease support groups in east Texas. Open-ended semi-structured interviews with seven men and seven women with Parkinson's disease were also conducted. These data were combined and analyzed using thematic analysis. ^ Findings. The illness experience is described through the metaphor "Sailing the Sea in The Eye of the Storm." This metaphor served as the overarching theme that covered the two interacting content themes of the voyage of Daily Negotiations in the Midst of Uncertainty and Reconstruction of the Self with Parkinson's Disease. Daily negotiations incorporated navigating daily activities with the uncertainty of both the progression and daily vicissitudes of the disease. Participants described their symptoms as progressive imprisonment that interfered with daily activities. The progressive nature of the disease required the participants to reconstruct their perceptions of themselves. Reconstructing the self involved the paradoxical balancing of preserving the self while simultaneously releasing aspects of the former self to reconstruct the self with Parkinson's disease. This process was reflected in four exemplars: I Know Me." "It's Still Me," "See Me." and "Remember Me." ^ Conclusions. This qualitative study illuminated the struggle of persons in dealing with the uncertainties and fluctuations of Parkinson's disease and the process of reconstructing their perceptions of themselves. The meaning and reconstruction of the illness experience expressed by participants will inform understanding beyond the disease itself to the illness experience that these participants must deal with on a daily basis. ^

Are free condoms associated with the frequent use of condoms among men who have sex with men?

Introduction. The National Behavioral HIV Surveillance (NHBS) is a self-reported cross-sectional survey that monitors the spread of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). The 2004 survey asked if the participant received a free condom, used it, and if receiving a free condom made him more likely to use a condom. The aim of this cross-sectional study is to examine the Houston MSA sub-dataset to determine if there was a self-expressed association between receiving a free condom and likelihood of using a condom at next intercourse, and to determine if the strength of that association varied by demographic subgroup.^ Methods. The Houston MSA 2004 NHBS had 502 participants who were men who have sex with men (MSM). The present analysis examined the answers to the questions: "In the past 12 months, have you received free condoms?" "Have you used any of the free condoms you received?" and "Did getting these free condoms make you more likely to use condoms during sex?".^ Results. Out of 502 participants, 500 answered the question about receiving free condoms, 406 (81.2%) answered all three questions, and 204 (50.2%) answered "yes" to all three questions. In the subgroup analyses, Hispanics were significantly less likely and men under 29 years of age were significantly more likely to report that their condom use behavior was influenced by receiving a free condom. ^ Conclusion. The effect of receipt of free condoms on likelihood of condom use varies by demographic subgroup, but these potentially important preliminary findings will require further investigation to validate them and further explicate the possible underlying dynamics.^

Association of exogenous hormonal intake with the risk of development of hepatocellular carcinoma in women

Background. Primary liver cancer, the majority of which is hepatocellular carcinoma, is the third most common cause of mortality from cancer. It has one of the worst prognosis outcomes and an overall 5-year survival of only 5-6%. Hepatocellular carcinoma has been shown to have wide variations in geographic distribution and there is a marked difference in the incidence between different races and gender. Previously low-rate countries, including the US, have shown to have doubled the incidence of HCC during the past two decades. Even though the incidence of HCC is higher in males as compared to females, female hormones, especially estrogens have been postulated to have a role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma on a molecular level. Despite the frequent usage of oral contraceptive pills (OCP) and previously, hormone replacement therapy (HRT), their role on HCC development has not been studied thoroughly. We aim to examine the association between exogenous hormone intake (oral contraceptives and post-menopausal hormone replacement therapy) and the development of HCC. Methods. This study is part of an ongoing hospital-based case-control study which is conducted at the Department of Gastrointestinal Oncology at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. From January 2005 up to January 2008, a total of 77 women with pathologically confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (cases) and 277 healthy women (controls) were included in the investigation. Information about the use of hormonal contraceptives, hormone replacement therapy and risk factors of hepatocellular cancer was collected by personal interview. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to estimate the crude odds ratios (OR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR). Results. We found statistically significant protective effect for the use of HRT on the development of HCC, AOR=0.42 (95% CI, 0.21, 0.81). The significance was observed for estrogen replacement, AOR=0.43 (95% CI, 0.22, 0.83) and not for progesterone replacement, AOR=0.49 (95% CI, 0.10, 2.35). On the other hand, any hormonal contraceptive use, which encompasses oral contraceptive pills, implants and injections, did not show a statistical significance either in the crude OR=0.58 (95% CI, 0.33, 1.01) or AOR=0.56 (95% CI 0.26, 1.18). Conclusions. As corroborated by previous studies, HRT confers 58% HCC risk reduction among American women. The more important question of the association between hormonal contraceptives and HCC remains controversial. Further studies are warranted to explore the mechanism of the protective effect of HRT and the relationship between hormonal contraception and HCC.^

Demographic analysis of Certified Industrial Hygienists (CIH) with the use of survival analysis techniques

Objective. The goal of this study is to characterize the current workforce of CIHs, the lengths of professional practice careers of the past and current CIHs.^ Methods. This is a secondary data analysis of data compiled from all of the nearly 50 annual roster listings of the American Board of Industrial Hygiene (ABIH) for Certified Industrial Hygienists active in each year since 1960. Survival analysis was performed as a technique to measure the primary outcome of interest. The technique which was involved in this study was the Kaplan-Meier method for estimating the survival function.^ Study subjects: The population to be studied is all Certified Industrial Hygienists (CIHs). A CIH is defined by the ABIH as an individual who has achieved the minimum requirements for education, working experience and through examination, has demonstrated a minimum level of knowledge and competency in the prevention of occupational illnesses. ^ Results. A Cox-proportional hazards model analysis was performed by different start-time cohorts of CIHs. In this model we chose cohort 1 as the reference cohort. The estimated relative risk of the event (defined as retirement, or absent from 5 consecutive years of listing) occurred for CIHs for cohorts 2,3,4,5 relative to cohort 1 is 0.385, 0.214, 0.234, 0.299 relatively. The result show that cohort 2 (CIHs issued from 1970-1980) has the lowest hazard ratio which indicates the lowest retirement rate.^ Conclusion. The manpower of CIHs (still actively practicing up to the end of 2009) increased tremendously starting in 1980 and grew into a plateau in recent decades. This indicates that the supply and demand of the profession may have reached equilibrium. More demographic information and variables are needed to actually predict the future number of CIHs needed. ^

Factors associated with the retention of HIV-infected children in care in Botswana

Lost to follow up (LTFU) in the care and treatment of HIV/AIDS represents a particularly problematic aspect when evaluating the success of treatment programs. Identifying modifiable factors that lead to LTFU would be important if we are to design effective retention interventions. The purpose of this study was to identify the challenges faced by children seeking care and treatment at a large HIV Clinic in Botswana. In order to identify those factors, we used mixed methods from different sources of information available at the Baylor Clinic. The first method involved a case-control study through which we interviewed a select representation of children 1-18 years who, at some point in time, have attended clinic at Baylor Clinic in Gaborone, Botswana. We document this in detail using the first journal article. We defined LTFU as patients who had not attended clinic for more than 6 months at the onset of the study; the comparison group was recruited from among those who have attended clinic at any point in the 6 months leading to the start of study. Factors were compared between the cases and controls. The second methodology involved conducting in-depth interviews with health providers to elicit their opinions and experiences dealing with patients at the at the Baylor clinic in general and the LTFU patients in particular. We document this methodology and its findings in the second journal article. ^ We found that most patients that are LTFU failed to engage with the clinic. Most of the LTFU made only one visit to the clinic (47.66%) as compared to less than 1% in the control group (P<0.01, 2-tailed Fisher's exact test). Among the interviewed patients, psychosocial factors such as stigma, religious beliefs, child rebellion and disclosure of HIV status concerns were characteristic of the LTFU population, but psychosocial issues were not cited among the comparison group. We also found that these psychosocial aspects of the patients point towards a bigger problem of mental health that needs to be addressed. Socioeconomic factors such as lack of transport, school-related activities and forgetting check-up dates were cited predominantly by the controls than cases. ^ From these findings, there is need to target interventions towards engaging pediatric patients at their initial clinic visit. Such interventions would focus on psychosocial support, as well as involving faith-based organizations in planning joint responses.^

Women’s experiences with the use of medical abortion in a legally restricted context: the case of Argentina

This article presents the findings of a qualitative study exploring the experiences of women living in Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area, Argentina, with the use of misoprostol for inducing an abortion. We asked women about the range of decisions they had to make, their emotions, the physical experience, strategies they needed to use, including seeking health care advice and in dealing with a clandestine medical abortion, and their overall evaluation of the experience. An in-depth interview schedule was used. The women had either used misoprostol and sought counselling or care at a public hospital (n=24) or had used misoprostol based on the advice of a local hotline, information from the internet or from other women (n=21). Four stages in the women’s experiences were identified: how the decision to terminate the pregnancy was taken, how the medication was obtained, how the tablets were used, and reflections on the outcome whether or not they sought medical advice. Safety and privacy were key in deciding to use medical abortion. Access to the medication was the main obstacle, requiring a prescription or a friendly drugstore. Correct information about the number of pills to use and dosage intervals was the least easy to obtain and caused concerns. The possibility of choosing a time of privacy and having the company of a close one was highlighted as a unique advantage of medical abortion. Efforts to improve abortion law, policy and service provision in Argentina in order to ensure the best possible conditions for use of medical abortion by women should be redoubled.