The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Evaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing data in Southern Ontario, Canada

Grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important agrometeorological parameter for climatological and hydrological studies, as well as for irrigation planning and management. There are several methods to estimate ETo, but their performance in different environments is diverse, since all of them have some empirical background. The FAO Penman-Monteith (FAD PM) method has been considered as a universal standard to estimate ETo for more than a decade. This method considers many parameters related to the evapotranspiration process: net radiation (Rn), air temperature (7), vapor pressure deficit (Delta e), and wind speed (U); and has presented very good results when compared to data from lysimeters Populated with short grass or alfalfa. In some conditions, the use of the FAO PM method is restricted by the lack of input variables. In these cases, when data are missing, the option is to calculate ETo by the FAD PM method using estimated input variables, as recommended by FAD Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Based on that, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the FAO PM method to estimate ETo when Rn, Delta e, and U data are missing, in Southern Ontario, Canada. Other alternative methods were also tested for the region: Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, and Thornthwaite. Data from 12 locations across Southern Ontario, Canada, were used to compare ETo estimated by the FAD PM method with a complete data set and with missing data. The alternative ETo equations were also tested and calibrated for each location. When relative humidity (RH) and U data were missing, the FAD PM method was still a very good option for estimating ETo for Southern Ontario, with RMSE smaller than 0.53 mm day(-1). For these cases, U data were replaced by the normal values for the region and Delta e was estimated from temperature data. The Priestley-Taylor method was also a good option for estimating ETo when U and Delta e data were missing, mainly when calibrated locally (RMSE = 0.40 mm day(-1)). When Rn was missing, the FAD PM method was not good enough for estimating ETo, with RMSE increasing to 0.79 mm day(-1). When only T data were available, adjusted Hargreaves and modified Thornthwaite methods were better options to estimate ETo than the FAO) PM method, since RMSEs from these methods, respectively 0.79 and 0.83 mm day(-1), were significantly smaller than that obtained by FAO PM (RMSE = 1.12 mm day(-1). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Genetic population data of 12 STR loci of the PowerPlex (R) Y system in the state of Sao Paulo population (Southeast of Brazil)

Allele frequency distributions and population data for 12 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) included in the PowerPlex (R) Y Systems (Promega) were obtained for a sample of 200 healthy unrelated males living in S (a) over tildeo Paulo State (Southeast of Brazil). A total of 192 haplotypes were identified, of which 184 were unique and 8 were found in 2 individuals. The average gene diversity of the 12 Y-STR was 0.6746 and the haplotype diversity was 0.9996. Pairwise analysis confirmed that our population is more similar with the Italy, North Portugal and Spain, being more distant of the Japan. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bioequivalence Evaluation of Single Doses of Two Tramadol Formulations: A Randomized, Open-Label, Two-Period Crossover Study in Healthy Brazilian Volunteers

Background: Tramadol is a well tolerated and effective analgesic used to treat moderate to severe pain. Several generic formulations of tramadol are available in Brazil; however, published information regarding their bioequivalence in the Brazilian population is not available. A study was designed for Brazilian regulatory authorities to allow marketing of a generic formulation. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the bioequivalence of 2 commercial tablet preparations containing tramadol 100 mg marketed for use in Brazil. Methods: A randomized, open-label, 2 x 2 crossover study was performed in healthy Brazilian volunteers under fasting conditions with a washout period of 12 days. Two tablet formulations of tramadol 100 mg (test and reference formulations) were administered as a single oral dose, and blood samples were collected over 24 hours. Tramadol plasma concentrations were quantified using a validated HPLC method. A plasma concentration time profile was generated for each volunteer and then mean values were determined, from which C(max), T(max), AUC(0-t), AUC(0-infinity), k(e), and t(1/2) were calculated using a noncompartmental model. Bioequivalence between the products was determined by calculating 90% CIs for the ratios of C(max), AUC(0-t), and AUC(0-infinity) values for the test and reference products using log-transformed data. Tolerability was assessed by monitoring vital signs (temperature, blood pressure, heart rate), laboratory tests (hematology, blood biochemistry, hepatic function, urinalysis), and interviews with the volunteers before medication administration and every 2 hours during the study. Results: Twenty-six healthy volunteers (13 men, 13 women) were enrolled in and completed the study. Mean (SD) age was 30 (6.8) years (range, 21-44 years), mean weight was 64 (8.3) kg (range, 53-79 kg), and mean height was 166 (6.4) cm (range, 155-178 cm). The 90% CIs for the ratios of C(max) (1.01-1.17), AUC(0-t) (1.00-1.13), and AUC(0-infinity) (1.00-1.14) values for the test and reference products fell within the interval of 0.80 to 1.25 proposed by most regulatory agencies, including the Brazilian regulatory body. No clinically important adverse effects were reported; only mild somnolence was reported by 4 volunteers and mild headaches by 5 volunteers, and there was no need to use medication to treat these symptoms. Conclusion: Pharmacokinetic analysis in these healthy Brazilian volunteers suggested that the test and reference formulations of tramadol 100-mg tablets met the regulatory requirements to assume bio-equivalence based on the Brazilian regulatory definition. (Clin Ther 2010;32:758-765) (C) 2010 Excerpta Medica Inc.

Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems and LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee: Food composition activities (2006-2009)

The Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems (BRASILFOODS) has been keeping the Brazilian Food Composition Database-USP (TBCA-USP) (http://www.fcf.usp.br/tabela) since 1998. Besides the constant compilation, analysis and update work in the database, the network tries to innovate through the introduction of food information that may contribute to decrease the risk for non-transmissible chronic diseases, such as the profile of carbohydrates and flavonoids in foods. In 2008, data on carbohydrates, individually analyzed, of 112 foods, and 41 data related to the glycemic response produced by foods widely consumed in the country were included in the TBCA-USP. Data (773) about the different flavonoid subclasses of 197 Brazilian foods were compiled and the quality of each data was evaluated according to the USDAs data quality evaluation system. In 2007, BRASILFOODS/USP and INFOODS/FAO organized the 7th International Food Data Conference ""Food Composition and Biodiversity"". This conference was a unique opportunity for interaction between renowned researchers and participants from several countries and it allowed the discussion of aspects that may improve the food composition area. During the period, the LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee and BRASILFOODS disseminated to Latin America the Form and Manual for Data Compilation, version 2009, ministered a Food Composition Data Compilation course and developed many activities related to data production and compilation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Migrating eprints.org data to a Fez repository

This document records the process of migrating eprints.org data to a Fez repository. Fez is a Web-based digital repository and workflow management system based on Fedora (http://www.fedora.info/). At the time of migration, the University of Queensland Library was using EPrints 2.2.1 [pepper] for its ePrintsUQ repository. Once we began to develop Fez, we did not upgrade to later versions of eprints.org software since we knew we would be migrating data from ePrintsUQ to the Fez-based UQ eSpace. Since this document records our experiences of migration from an earlier version of eprints.org, anyone seeking to migrate eprints.org data into a Fez repository might encounter some small differences. Moving UQ publication data from an eprints.org repository into a Fez repository (hereafter called UQ eSpace (http://espace.uq.edu.au/) was part of a plan to integrate metadata (and, in some cases, full texts) about all UQ research outputs, including theses, images, multimedia and datasets, in a single repository. This tied in with the plan to identify and capture the research output of a single institution, the main task of the eScholarshipUQ testbed for the Australian Partnership for Sustainable Repositories project (http://www.apsr.edu.au/). The migration could not occur at UQ until the functionality in Fez was at least equal to that of the existing ePrintsUQ repository. Accordingly, as Fez development occurred throughout 2006, a list of eprints.org functionality not currently supported in Fez was created so that programming of such development could be planned for and implemented.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

Test–retest repeatability of self-reported environmental exposures in Parkinson’s disease cases and healthy controls

There is substantial disagreement among published epidemiological studies regarding environmental risk factors for Parkinson’s disease (PD). Differences in the quality of measurement of environmental exposures may contribute to this variation. The current study examined the test–retest repeatability of self-report data on risk factors for PD obtained from a series of 32 PD cases recruited from neurology clinics and 29 healthy sex-, age-and residential suburb-matched controls. Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire derived from previous epidemiological studies. High repeatability was demonstrated for ‘lifestyle’ exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70–1.00). Environmental exposures that involved some action by the person, such as pesticide application and use of solvents and metals, also showed high repeatability (kappas>0.78). Lower repeatability was seen for rural residency and bore water consumption (kappa 0.39–0.74). In general, we found that case and control participants provided similar rates of incongruent and missing responses for categorical and continuous occupational, domestic, lifestyle and medical exposures.

A simple data logger for student-designed rocket experiments.

The final-year project for Mechanical & Space Engineering students at UQ often involves the design and flight testing of an experiment. This report describes the design and use of a simple data logger that should be suitable for collecting data from the students' flight experiments. The exercise here was taken as far as the construction of a prototype device that is suitable for ground-based testing, say, the static firing of a hybrid rocket motor.

Rich task implementation: modernism meets postmodernism

School renewal', 'productive pedagogies', 'rich tasks', 'New Basics', 'key learning areas'--these are some of the discourses of change in selected Queensland schools. This paper will report on teaching as an insider/outsider in a school's Health and Physical Education department during a time of intense pressure for structural, curriculum and pedagogical shifts. As a teacher/researcher, I spent ten weeks in a government secondary school attempting to implement rich tasks as well as collect data using formal and informal interviews, field note, and document analyses, with a focus upon teachers', students' and administrators' sense of change processes and outcomes. It is suggested that the processes of, and barriers to, curriculum change in this context are best explained in terms of tensions between modernist and postmodernist phenomena.

Elite athletes: Why does the 'fire' burn so brightly?

Background and Purpose: What drives some athletes to achieve at the highest level whilst other athletes fail to achieve their physical potential? Why does the ‘fire’ burn so brightly for some elite athletes and not for others? A good understanding of an athlete’s motivation is critical to a coach designing an appropriate motivational climate to realize an athlete’s physical talent. This paper examines the motivational processes of elite athletes within the framework of three major social-cognitive theories of motivation. Method: Participants were five male and five female elite track and field athletes from Australia who had finished in the top ten at either the Olympic Games and/or the World Championships in the last six years. Qualitative data were collected using semi-structured interviews. Results and Discussion: Inductive analyses revealed several major themes associated with the motivational processes of elite athletes: (a) they were highly driven by personal goals and achievement, (b) they had strong self-belief, and (c) track and field was central to their lives. The findings are discussed in light of recent social-cognitive theories of motivation, namely, self-determination theory, the hierarchical model of motivation, and achievement goal theory. Self-determined forms of motivation characterised the elite athletes in this study and, consistent with social-cognitive theories of motivation, it is suggested that goal accomplishment enhances perceptions of competence and consequently promotes self-determined forms of motivation.

Formal performance appraisal interviews: Can they really be objective, and are they useful anyway?

This paper reports on a qualitative field study conducted in Australia which examined what is occurring in formal performance appraisal interviews in relation to their objectivity and resultant outcomes. Supervisors and subordinates who had recently been involved in performance appraisals were interviewed about their experiences of the process. Perceptions of the utility of, and satisfaction with the interview process were examined. Further, the effect of the relationship between the participants on objectivity was investigated. Results indicated that formal appraisal interviews were not perceived to be of great utility, and that the relationship of the participants influenced the interview.

Equational Reasoning as a Tool for Data Analysis

A combination of deductive reasoning, clustering, and inductive learning is given as an example of a hybrid system for exploratory data analysis. Visualization is replaced by a dialogue with the data.