Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

Canada/U.S. border crossing: facilitation and constraint

Abstract The aim of this research project is to draw on accounts of experiences ofborder crossing and regulation at the Canada/U.S. border at Niagara in order to illuminate the dynamics of differentiation and inequality at this site. The research is informed by claims that the world is turning into a global village due to transnational flows oftechnology, infonnation, capital and people. Much of the available literature on globalization shows that while the transfer of technology, information, and capital are enhanced, the transnational movement of people is both facilitated and constrained in complex and unequal ways. In this project, the workings of facilitation and constraint were explored through an analysis often interviews with people who had spent a substantial portion oftheir childhood (e.g. 5 years) in a Canadian border community. The interviewees were at the time ofthe research between the ages of 19 and 25. Because most ofthe respondents were 'white' Canadians of working to upper middle class status, my focus was to explore how 'whiteness' as privilege may translate into enhanced movement across borders and how 'white' people may internalize and enjoy this privilege but may often deny its reality. I was also interested in how inequality is perceived, understood, and legitimated by these relatively privileged people. My analysis ofthe ten accounts ofborder crossing and regulation suggests that differentially situated people experience border crossing differently. An important finding is that while relatively privileged border crossers perceived and often problernatized differential treatment based on external factors such as physical appearance, and especially race, most did not challenge such treatment but rather saw it as acceptable. These findings are located within newer literature that addresses the increasing securitization ofborders and migration in western societies.

The Informational Value of Corporate Credit Ratings

This thesis examines the quality of credit ratings issued by the three major credit rating agencies - Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch. If credit ratings are informative, then prices of underlying credit instruments such as fixed-income securities and credit default insurance should change to reflect the new credit risk information. Using data on 246 different major fixed income securities issuers and spanning January 2000 to December 2011, we find that credit default swaps (CDS) spreads do not react to changes in credit ratings. Hence credit ratings for all three agencies are not price informative. CDS prices are mostly determined by historical CDS prices while ratings are mostly determined by historical ratings. We find that credit ratings are marginally more sensitive to CDS than CDS are sensitive to ratings.

Letter from the Chairman of the Committee of Ways and Means to the Secretary of the Treasurer on the subject of a system of revenue to revive and maintain unimpaired the public credit, with the answer of the Secretary thereto. (1814)

October 18, 1814. Read, and committed to the Committee of the whole House on the report of the Committee of Ways and Means on so much of the President's message as relates to the finances of the United States.

Region Connection Calculus: Composition Tables and Constraint Satisfaction Problems

Qualitative spatial reasoning (QSR) is an important field of AI that deals with qualitative aspects of spatial entities. Regions and their relationships are described in qualitative terms instead of numerical values. This approach models human based reasoning about such entities closer than other approaches. Any relationships between regions that we encounter in our daily life situations are normally formulated in natural language. For example, one can outline one's room plan to an expert by indicating which rooms should be connected to each other. Mereotopology as an area of QSR combines mereology, topology and algebraic methods. As mereotopology plays an important role in region based theories of space, our focus is on one of the most widely referenced formalisms for QSR, the region connection calculus (RCC). RCC is a first order theory based on a primitive connectedness relation, which is a binary symmetric relation satisfying some additional properties. By using this relation we can define a set of basic binary relations which have the property of being jointly exhaustive and pairwise disjoint (JEPD), which means that between any two spatial entities exactly one of the basic relations hold. Basic reasoning can now be done by using the composition operation on relations whose results are stored in a composition table. Relation algebras (RAs) have become a main entity for spatial reasoning in the area of QSR. These algebras are based on equational reasoning which can be used to derive further relations between regions in a certain situation. Any of those algebras describe the relation between regions up to a certain degree of detail. In this thesis we will use the method of splitting atoms in a RA in order to reproduce known algebras such as RCC15 and RCC25 systematically and to generate new algebras, and hence a more detailed description of regions, beyond RCC25.

Effects of credit rating change on risk-taking

This thesis investigates whether there are changes in risk-taking behavior following an upgrade or downgrade in credit ratings. Research on effects of rating changes on capital markets is well-documented but the literature on how rating changes may affect firm behavior is sparse. Following, a downgrade in credit rating, managers may increase risk-taking to improve their overall performance or reduce risk-taking following upgrades to ensure that their performance is assessed more on the basis of what they may deem success in the form of an upgrade. Using a sample of firms trading in the U.S from 1994-2013, we find evidence of change in risk-taking behavior. We use cross-sectional regressions and matching using propensity scores and Barber and Lyon (1997) methodology to measure changes in risk-taking and we do find evidence of changes in managerial risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, we find that the direction of change (increase or decrease) in some cases is dependent on the type of measure rather than the type of rating change.

Credit to S.D. Woodruff from Pratt and Company for $150.00

Credit to S.D. Woodruff from Pratt and Company for $150.00, Sept. 7, 1876.

Credit to S.D. Woodruff from Pratt and Company for $62.00

Credit to S.D. Woodruff from Pratt and Company for $62.00, Nov. 6, 1876.

Bureaucratic Corruption As a Constraint on Voter Choice

It Has Often Been Assumed That a Country's Tax Level, Tax Structure Progressivity and After-Tax Income Distribution Are Chosen by Voters Subject Only to Their Budget Constraints. This Paper Argues That At Certain Income Levels Voters' Decisions May Be Constrained by Bureaucratic Corruption. the Theoretical Arguments Are Developed in Asymmetry Limits the Capacity of the Fiscal System to Generate Revenues by Means of Direct Taxes. This Hypothesis Is Tested Witha Sample of International Data by Means of a Simultaneous Equation Model. the Distortions Resulting From Corruption Ar Captured Through Their Effects on a Latent Variable Defined As the Overall Fiscal Structure. Evidence Is Found of Causality Running From This Latent Variable to the Level of Taxes and the Degree of After Tax Inequality.