Road Design for Future Maintenance : Life-cycle Cost Analyses for Road Barriers

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of design, quality of construction as well as maintenance strategies and operations. An optimal life-cycle cost for a road requires evaluations of the above mentioned components. Unfortunately, road designers often neglect a very important aspect, namely, the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. Focus is mainly directed towards other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This doctoral thesis presents the results of a research project aimed to increase consideration of road maintenance aspects in the planning and design process. The following subgoals were established: Identify the obstacles that prevent adequate consideration of future maintenance during the road planning and design process; and Examine optimisation of life-cycle costs as an approach towards increased efficiency during the road planning and design process. The research project started with a literature review aimed at evaluating the extent to which maintenance aspects are considered during road planning and design as an improvement potential for maintenance efficiency. Efforts made by road authorities to increase efficiency, especially maintenance efficiency, were evaluated. The results indicated that all the evaluated efforts had one thing in common, namely ignorance of the interrelationship between geometrical road design and maintenance as an effective tool to increase maintenance efficiency. Focus has mainly been on improving operating practises and maintenance procedures. This fact might also explain why some efforts to increase maintenance efficiency have been less successful. An investigation was conducted to identify the problems and difficulties, which obstruct due consideration of maintainability during the road planning and design process. A method called “Change Analysis” was used to analyse data collected during interviews with experts in road design and maintenance. The study indicated a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects when planning and designing roads. The identified problems were classified into six categories: insufficient consulting, insufficient knowledge, regulations and specifications without consideration of maintenance aspects, insufficient planning and design activities, inadequate organisation and demands from other authorities. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. One of the problems identified in the above mentioned study as an obstacle for due consideration of maintenance aspects during road design was the absence of a model for calculating life-cycle costs for roads. Because of this lack of knowledge, the research project focused on implementing a new approach for calculating and analysing life-cycle costs for roads with emphasis on the relationship between road design and road maintainability. Road barriers were chosen as an example. The ambition is to develop this approach to cover other road components at a later stage. A study was conducted to quantify repair rates for barriers and associated repair costs as one of the major maintenance costs for road barriers. A method called “Case Study Research Method” was used to analyse the effect of several factors on barrier repairs costs, such as barrier type, road type, posted speed and seasonal effect. The analyses were based on documented data associated with 1625 repairs conducted in four different geographical regions in Sweden during 2006. A model for calculation of average repair costs per vehicle kilometres was created. Significant differences in the barrier repair costs were found between the studied barrier types. In another study, the injuries associated with road barrier collisions and the corresponding influencing factors were analysed. The analyses in this study were based on documented data from actual barrier collisions between 2005 and 2008 in Sweden. The result was used to calculate the cost for injuries associated with barrier collisions as a part of the socio-economic cost for road barriers. The results showed significant differences in the number of injuries associated with collisions with different barrier types. To calculate and analyse life-cycle costs for road barriers a new approach was developed based on a method called “Activity-based Life-cycle Costing”. By modelling uncertainties, the presented approach gives a possibility to identify and analyse factors crucial for optimising life-cycle costs. The study showed a great potential to increase road maintenance efficiency through road design. It also showed that road components with low investment costs might not be the best choice when including maintenance and socio-economic aspects. The difficulties and problems faced during the collection of data for calculating life-cycle costs for road barriers indicated a great need for improving current data collecting and archiving procedures. The research focused on Swedish road planning and design. However, the conclusions can be applied to other Nordic countries, where weather conditions and road design practices are similar. The general methodological approaches used in this research project may be applied also to other studies.

Photovoltaic System Design for a Contaminated Area in Falun – Comparison of South and East- West Layout

In this thesis the solar part of a large grid-connected photovoltaic system design has been done. The main purpose was to size and optimize the system and to present figures helping to evaluate the prospective project rationality, which can potentially be constructed on a contaminated area in Falun. The methodology consisted in PV market study and component selection, site analysis and defining suitable area for solar installation; and system configuration optimization based on PVsyst simulations and Levelized Cost of Energy calculations. The procedure was mainly divided on two parts, preliminary and detailed sizing. In the first part the objective was complex, which included the investigation of the most profitable component combination and system optimization due to tilt and row distance. It was done by simulating systems with different components and orientations, which were sized for the same 100kW inverter in order to make a fair comparison. For each simulated result a simplified LCOE calculation procedure was applied. The main results of this part show that with the price of 0.43 €/Wp thin-film modules were the most cost effective solution for the case with a great advantage over crystalline type in terms of financial attractiveness. From the results of the preliminary study it was possible to select the optimal system configuration, which was used in the detailed sizing as a starting point. In this part the PVsyst simulations were run, which included full scale system design considering near shadings created by factory buildings. Additionally, more complex procedure of LCOE calculation has been used here considered insurances, maintenance, time value of money and possible cost reduction due to the system size. Two system options were proposed in final results; both cover the same area of 66000 m2. The first one represents an ordinary South faced design with 1.1 MW nominal power, which was optimized for the highest performance. According to PVsyst simulations, this system should produce 1108 MWh/year with the initial investment of 835,000 € and 0.056 €/kWh LCOE. The second option has an alternative East-West orientation, which allows to cover 80% of occupied ground and consequently have 6.6 MW PV nominal power. The system produces 5388 MWh/year costs about 4500,000 € and delivers electricity with the same price of 0.056 €/kWh. Even though the EW solution has 20% lower specific energy production, it benefits mainly from lower relative costs for inverters, mounting and annual maintenance expenses. After analyzing the performance results, among the two alternatives none of the systems showed a clear superiority so there was no optimal system proposed. Both, South and East-West solutions have own advantages and disadvantages in terms of energy production profile, configuration, installation and maintenance. Furthermore, the uncertainty due to cost figures assumptions restricted the results veracity.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default

This dissertation analyses quantitatively the costs of sovereign default for the economy, in a model where banks with long positions in government debt play a central role in the financial intermediation for private sector's investments and face financial frictions that limit their leverage ability. Calibration tries to resemble some features of the Eurozone, where discussions about bailout schemes and default risk have been central issues. Results show that the model captures one important cost of default pointed out by empirical and theoretical literature on debt crises, namely the fall in investment that follows haircut episodes, what can be explained by a worsening in banks' balance sheet conditions that limits credit for the private sector and raises their funding costs. The cost in terms of output decrease is though not significant enough to justify the existence of debt markets and the government incentives for debt repayment. Assuming that the government is able to alleviate its constrained budget by imposing a restructuring on debt repayment profile that allows it to cut taxes, our model generates an important difference for output path comparing lump-sum taxes and distortionary. For our calibration, quantitative results show that in terms of output and utility, it is possible that the effect on the labour supply response generated by tax cuts dominates investment drop caused by credit crunch on financial markets. We however abstract from default costs associated to the breaking of existing contracts, external sanctions and risk spillovers between countries, that might also be relevant in addition to financial disruption effects. Besides, there exist considerable trade-offs for short and long run path of economic variables related to government and banks' behaviour.

Bank relationships: effect on the availability and marginal cost of credit for firms in Argentina

The paper provides evidence on what affects at the margin the cost and availability of bank credit for firms in Argentina. We study in particular how banks use different pieces of private and public information to screen firms and overcome informational asymmetries in the credit market. Some private information is transferable, like balance sheet data. Private information generated in relationships is not. To capture the closeness of bank relationships, we resort to the concentration of bank credit and the number of credit lines in a bank. We also consider public information available in the Central de Deudores. The cost of credit is measured using overdrafts, the most expensive line of credit, at the bank that charges the highest rate for overdrafts. We find that the cost of credit is smaller for a firm with a close relationship to the marginal bank. Firms with large assets, a high sales/assets ratio, and a low debt/assets ratio pay a lower interest rate at the margin. A good credit history (no debt arrears and no bounced checks) and collateral also reduce the marginal interest rate. The availability of credit is measured by unused credit lines as a proportion of total liabilities with the main bank. The availability of credit depends positively on a close relationship with the main bank. Large assets, a high return over assets, a high sales/assets ratio, a low debt/assets ratio, a good credit history, and collateral lead to higher credit availability. Our measure of unused credit lines is less ambiguous than traditional measures like leverage, which may indicate financial distress rather than availability of credit.

Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Diagnóstico para implantação do sistema de gestão ambiental em postos revendedores de combustíveis no município de Paranamirim RN: um estudo de caso

natural resources that still enjoy, in the certainty that if we do not, could culminate at the end of that remains. The environmental contamination by fuels in the retail service of oil and biofuels, has been a subject of growing research in Brazil, due to the large pollution potential of this activity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of implementing the Environmental Management System (EMS) in fuel retail service stations in the city of Parnamirim-RN, but also describe the current situation the same as licensing and environmental characterization; identify existing barriers to implementation of EMS on the costs, technologies, knowledge, vision, present the potential benefits for the implementation of the EMS (social, economic and environmental), to identify the existence of plans for future action to implement the EMS , as a subsidy to promote the implementation of it. The methodology was developed through analysis of documents provided by the environmental agency responsible for licensing of retail service stations and fuel pala ANP. For data collection, we used the questionnaire was applied directly to managers or managers of sub-stations. Data were collected in 12 of 30 posts in the municipality. For purposes of data treatment was performed a descriptive analysis with respect to the opinion of twelve managers (respondents). The data acquired, according to the Likert scale were tabulated and analyzed using software SPSS 17.0 and Excel 2003, it was generated tables and graphs to observe the behavior of the data. The results showed that most respondents have a schooling level higher (58.3%) of the jobs surveyed 50% work on average 6 to 10 years and 41.6% are in operation for over 11 years , 75.0% do not have a license to operate and 12 stations, 58.3% were sued for not having a license to operate and are therefore in full commercial activity, 83% of jobs have some practice environmentally responsible, 75% agree in making planning future action to implement 8 the EMS in their ventures, 70% in full agreement that the high cost is a form of impediment to implementation of EMS; 66.67% agreed that resistance to change is an impediment to implementation of EMS; 90.91% agreed that the implementation of EMS is very complex, 80% of respondents agreed in a very significant environmental legislation is also a key factor preventing the implementation of EMS is noteworthy that 100% of respondents agreed that the knowledge about the use of the EMS will help to solve environmental problems in the fuel retail service stations, the implementation of the EMS will benefit with increased efficiency of resources applied to the findings by the agreement of 91.66% of respondents, where only 8, 33% disagreed, there was also a percentage of 100%, agreed that the company's image will be a great benefit, but also a contribution to solving environmental problems in the fuel retail service stations. Thus, the importance of the implementation of EMS in the fuel retail service stations in the city of Parnamirim-RN, with an urgent need to be deployed. And the bodies responsible for policy on state-run and supervise more tightly and action, this type of activity, in order to regulate the sustainable functioning of retail service stations of fuel, thus promoting a better quality of life for the population of the municipality of natal-RN

Electricity, hot water and cold water production from biomass. Energetic and economical analysis of the compact system of cogeneration run with woodgas from a small downdraft gasifier

Wood gasification technologies to convert the biomass into fuel gas stand out. on the other hand, producing electrical energy from stationary engine is widely spread, and its application in rural communities where the electrical network doesn't exist is very required. The recovery of exhaust gases (engine) is a possibility that makes the system attractive when compared with the same components used to obtain individual heat such as electric power. This paper presents an energetic alternative to adapt a fixed bed gasifier with a compact cogeneration system in order to cover electrical and thermal demands in a rural area and showing an energy solution for small social communities using renewable fuels. Therefore, an energetic and economical analysis from a cogeneration system producing electric energy, hot and cold water, using wooden gas as fuel from a small-sized gasifier was calculated. The energy balance that includes the energy efficiency (electric generation as well as hot and cold water system; performance coefficient and the heat exchanger, among other items), was calculated. Considering the annual interest rates and the amortization periods, the costs of production of electrical energy, hot and cold water were calculated, taking into account the investment, the operation and the maintenance cost of the equipments. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic-statistical design of the (X)over-bar chart used to control a wandering process mean using genetic algorithm

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Double sampling (x)over-bar control chart for a first-order autoregressive moving average process model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Negative chronotropic response to adenosine receptor stimulation in rat right atria after run training

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potency and maximal responses (E-max) to the adenosine receptor agonists N-6-cyclopentyladenosine (CPA), N-ethylcarboxamidoadenosine (NECA) and N-6-(3-iodobenzyl)-5'-N-methylcarbaxamidoadenosine (IB-MECA) in right atria from trained rats. We also investigated the interaction between the training bradycardia and the sensitivity of the chronotropic response mediated by adenosine receptor stimulation.2. Animals were submitted to run training for 60 min, 5 days a week, over a period of 8 weeks. Mean blood pressure and heart rate were measured in conscious animals. Right atria were isolated and concentration-response curves to CPA, NECA and IB-MECA were obtained.3. A reduction in heart rate was found in trained rats, indicating that the training programme was successful in inducing physical conditioning. The three adenosine receptor agonists induced a concentration-dependent negative chronotropic response. The rank order of potency and E-max for the three adenosine receptor agonists was CPA>NECA>IB-MECA.4. Dynamic exercise for 8 weeks did not alter the E a, for CPA, NECA and IB-MECA. Similarly, the potencies of CPA and NECA were not affected by run training, whereas the potency of IB-MECA was reduced (6.10+/-0.09 vs 5.66+/-0.10 for sedentary and trained groups, respectively).5. In conclusion, run training for 8 weeks induced a desensitization of the chronotropic response to IB-MECA without changing the potency of CPA and NECA. These findings exclude the participation of adenosine receptors in the training bradycardia.

Search for the flavour-changing neutral current B-s(0)->mu+mu- in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV with the D0 dectector

We present the results of a search for the flavor-changing neutral current decay B-s(0)-->mu(+)mu(-) using a data set with integrated luminosity of 240 pb(-1) of p (p) over bar collisions at roots=1.96 TeV collected with the D0 detector in run II of the Fermilab Tevatron collider. We find the upper limit on the branching fraction to be B(B-s(0)-->mu(+)mu(-))less than or equal to5.0x10(-7) at the 95% C.L. assuming no contributions from the decay B-d(0)-->mu(+)mu(-) in the signal region. This limit is the most stringent upper bound on the branching fraction B-s(0)-->mu(+)mu(-) to date.

Measurement of the WW production cross section in p(p)over-bar collisions at root(s)over-bar=1.96 TeV

We present a measurement of the W boson pair-production cross section in p(p) over bar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of root s=1.96 TeV. The data, collected with the Run II D0 detector at Fermilab, correspond to an integrated luminosity of 224-252 pb(-1) depending on the final state (ee, e mu, or mu mu). We observe 25 candidates with a background expectation of 8.1 +/- 0.6(stat)+/- 0.6(syst)+/- 0.5(lum) events. The probability for an upward fluctuation of the background to produce the observed signal is 2.3x10(-7), equivalent to 5.2 standard deviations. The measurement yields a cross section of 13.8(-3.8)(+4.3)(stat)(-0.9)(+1.2)(syst)+/- 0.9(lum) pb, in agreement with predictions from the standard model.

Search for stopped gluinos from p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV

Long-lived, heavy particles are predicted in a number of models beyond the standard model of particle physics. We present the first direct search for such particles' decays, occurring up to 100 h after their production and not synchronized with an accelerator bunch crossing. We apply the analysis to the gluino (g), predicted in split supersymmetry, which after hadronization can become charged and lose enough momentum through ionization to come to rest in dense particle detectors. Approximately 410 pb(-1) of p (p) over bar collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV collected with the D0 detector during Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron collider are analyzed in search of such stopped gluinos decaying into a gluon and a neutralino ((chi) over tilde (0)(1)). Limits are placed on the (gluino cross section) x (probability to stop) x [BR((g) over tilde -> g (chi) over tilde (0)(1))] as a function of the gluino and (chi) over tilde (0)(1) masses, for gluino lifetimes from 30 mu s-100 h.

Search for pair production of scalar bottom quarks in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV

A search for direct production of scalar bottom quarks ((b) over bar) is performed with 310 pb(-1) of data collected by the D0 experiment in p (p) over bar collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The topology analyzed consists of two b jets and an imbalance in transverse momentum due to undetected neutralinos (chi(0)(1)), with chi(0)(1) assumed to be the lightest supersymmetric particle. We find the data consistent with standard model expectations, and set a 95% C.L. exclusion domain in the (m(b), m(chi 1)(0)) mass plane, improving significantly upon the results from run I of the Tevatron.