Assessing the impact of the Canadian tax credit for public transit passes.

Rapport de recherche présenté à la Faculté des arts et des sciences en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en sciences économiques.

Essays on numerically efficient inference in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models, and commodity market analysis.

The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm

Analyse géographique des investissements internationaux de la China National Petroleum Corporation

Ce mémoire propose une analyse de l’expansion internationale de la China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) et des impacts de cette expansion sur la sécurité énergétique de la Chine. Dans le cadre de cette recherche, l’approvisionnement énergétique d’un pays est jugé sécuritaire lorsqu’une quantité suffisante de ressources nécessaires pour combler sa demande en énergie sont présentes, disponibles et accessibles et que son approvisionnement en services énergétiques demeure fiable et abordable. La recherche comporte quatre volets. Le premier volet porte sur les étapes de la restructuration de l’industrie pétrolière chinoise depuis 1949. Celle-ci est analysée au travers des changements dans les modes de gestion des compagnies pétrolières nationales et dans leurs relations avec le gouvernement chinois. Le deuxième volet traite de la diversification et des nouvelles spécialisations de CNPC. Ces aspects sont étudiés dans le cadre d’une analyse du pourcentage de ses actifs dans chaque segment industriel (aval, intermédiaire et amont) obtenus grâce à ses rapports annuels. Le troisième volet aborde la répartition géographique des activités de la compagnie que l’on étudie à l’aide d’une analyse approfondie de près de 150 investissements, acquisitions et contrats réalisés à l’étranger entre 1992 et 2014. Le quatrième volet aborde les impacts des investissements à l’étranger de la compagnie sur la sécurité énergétique de la Chine. Ces impacts sont mesurés par l’entremise d’une analyse des flux pétroliers internationaux vers la Chine que l’on compare à la production de CNPC par pays. Ce mémoire permet de déterminer que l’expansion internationale de CNPC sert d’abord et avant tout les intérêts économiques de la compagnie. Ce sont surtout ses investissements dans la construction d’infrastructures de transport (oléoducs, gazoducs ainsi que les usines et terminaux de liquéfaction de gaz naturel liquéfié) qui apportent des bénéfices directs à la sécurité énergétique de la Chine. La contribution des investissements dans les autres secteurs est beaucoup moins systématique et dépend largement de la période au cours de laquelle ils ont été effectués.

Analysis of Some Single and Two Commodity Inventory Problems

This thesis is devoted to the study of some stochastic models in inventories. An inventory system is a facility at which items of materials are stocked. In order to promote smooth and efficient running of business, and to provide adequate service to the customers, an inventory materials is essential for any enterprise. When uncertainty is present, inventories are used as a protection against risk of stock out. It is advantageous to procure the item before it is needed at a lower marginal cost. Again, by bulk purchasing, the advantage of price discounts can be availed. All these contribute to the formation of inventory. Maintaining inventories is a major expenditure for any organization. For each inventory, the fundamental question is how much new stock should be ordered and when should the orders are replaced. In the present study, considered several models for single and two commodity stochastic inventory problems. The thesis discusses two models. In the first model, examined the case in which the time elapsed between two consecutive demand points are independent and identically distributed with common distribution function F(.) with mean  (assumed finite) and in which demand magnitude depends only on the time elapsed since the previous demand epoch. The time between disasters has an exponential distribution with parameter . In Model II, the inter arrival time of disasters have general distribution (F.) with mean  ( ) and the quantity destructed depends on the time elapsed between disasters. Demands form compound poison processes with inter arrival times of demands having mean 1/. It deals with linearly correlated bulk demand two Commodity inventory problem, where each arrival demands a random number of items of each commodity C1 and C2, the maximum quantity demanded being a (< S1) and b(

A Study of Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises with particular reference to Bank of Baroda in state of Kerala

While the quantum of advances from the public sector banks (PSBs) to the MSEs has increased over the years in absolute terms, from Rs.46, 045 crore in March 2000 to Rs.1, 85,208 crore in March 2009, the share of the 7credit to the MSE sector in the Net Bank Credit (NBC) has declined from 12.5 per cent to 10.9 per cent. Similarly, there has been a decline in the share of micro sector as a percentage of Net Bank Credit (NBC) from 7.8 per cent in March 2000 to 4.9% in March 2009. (TKA.Nair, 2010)9.The major reasons for low availability of bank finance to this sector are high risk perception of the banks in lending to MSEs and high transaction costs in processing of loan applications of MSEs. The problem is more serious for micro enterprises requiring small loans and the first generation entrepreneursThe thesis studies the divergence in guidelines by, CGTMSE, RBI & Bank of Baroda on collateral free lending and analyses the awareness of MSE about CGTMSE lending. The researcher tries to assess the problems faced by borrowers in availing advance under CGTMSE from Bank of Baroda, Kerala.

Materials management in state transport undertakings in india with special reference to kerala state road transport corporation

Scientific studies on the materials management systems and practices actually followed in various organizations in India are rather limited. This is particularly true with respect to service industries. In this context ,the present study on the “materials management in state transport undertakings in India, with special reference to kerala state road corporation” assumes particular significance . This study, examines critically, the prevailing set up, procedures and practices of materials management in the Kerala state road transport corporation and compares them with the prevailing practices in other similar state transport undertakings. It indicates several areas for improvement with respect to the organization, materials planning, purchasing, store keeping and other aspects. It also seeks to develop a comprehensive inventory control system for KSRTC.

Impact of Agricultural Credit in the.Agricultural Development of Kuttanad

Introduction of agrarian reforms and introduction of new technology increased dependence on casual labourers. High labour absorption in the subsistence agriculture and increased price of input resulted in high cost of cultivation. Price of paddy did not rise correspondingly. As a result subsistence economy's future is bleak. The purpose of the _study is to examine these arguments and related issues with the help of empirical evidence from Kuttanad. The credit schemes are designed to help farmers to earn higher incomes by larger output brought either by an increase in area or by an improvement in yield rates or both. It is difficult to isolate the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural development. Because agricultural development is the combined effect of all inputs. The specific .criteria selected for analysing the impact of agricultural icredit are how increased supply of credit would bring changes ‘in capital formation, agrarian relations, informal lending and its cost and the changes in area, output, introduction of new technology, income, savings and employment of farm households.

“Documentary Credit Law : An Indian Perspective"

This is a study in international trade law. Documentary credits are the most common method of payment for goods in international trade. In India also these instruments are used both in national and international trade. The law governing these transactions remains haphazard. This study identifies the deficiencies in the regulatory framework for documentary credits in India. It primarily focuses on those areas which exhibits a lack of equality and justice in its operation. An attempt has also been made to identify the rights and duties of parties involved in the transaction. The reasons for the increase of fraudulent activities associated with the documents executed in the documentary credit transactions are also examined. How far the law in India is sufficient to ensure fair business practice in international trade financing is also examined. Methodology adopted for the study is analytical. The statutory provisions, rules and case laws under these provisions have been examined. An empirical study by personal interview with the bankers is also made to ascertain the practice of bankers in India.

Fishery Commodity Chain Trap vis-à-vis Global Quality Standards: An Analysis of the Kerala Marine Fishery

The article examines the commodity chain trap of marine fishery in Kerala, at both material and value terms, and its ramifications in the globalised fishery chains. The marketing chains both material and value, are very complex in nature since they involve many types of markets and large number of intermediaries and participants. The article also scrutinizes the sensitivity of consumers’ and country’s responses in terms of dietary and hygienic standards relating to seafood trade. In addition, it discusses the devastating effect about the recent stipulations like the US Bio- Terrorism Act and Shrimp anti-dumping duty on the Kerala fishery products

The impact of the working of the Kerala State Bamboo Corporation in the development of the bamboo industry in Kerala

Cochin University of Science & Technology

A Study on Futures Trading in Commodities With Special Reference to Rubber

Futures trading in Commodities has three specific economic functions viz. price discovery, hedging and reduction in volatility. Natural rubber possesses all the specifications required for futures trading. Commodity futures trading in India attained momentum after the starting of national level commodity exchanges in 2003. The success of futures trading depends upon effective price risk management, price discovery and reduced volatility which in turn depends upon the volume of trading. In the case of rubber futures market, the volume of trading depends upon the extent of participation by market players like growers, dealers, manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS). The extent of participation by market players has a direct bearing on their awareness level and their perception about futures trading. In the light of the above facts and the review of literature available on rubber futures market, it is felt that a study on rubber futures market is necessary to fill the research gap, with specific focus on (1) the awareness and perception of rubber futures market participants viz. (i) rubber growers, (ii) dealers, (iii) rubber product manufacturers, (iv) rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS) about futures trading and (2) whether the rubber futures market is fulfilling the economic functions of futures market viz. hedging, reduction in volatility and price discovery or not. The study is confined to growers, dealers, rubber goods manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and RPS in Kerala. In order to achieve the stated objectives, the study utilized secondary data for the period from 2003 to 2013 from different published sources like bulletins, newsletters, circulars from NMCE, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Warehousing Corporation and traders. The primary data required for this study were collected from rubber growers, rubber dealers, RPS & Rubber Marketing Co-operative Societies and rubber goods manufacturers in Kerala. Data pertaining to the awareness and perception of futures trading, participation in the futures trading, use of spot and futures prices and source of price information by dealers, farmers, manufacturers and cooperative societies also were collected. Statistical tools used for analysis include percentage, standard deviation, Chi-square test, Mann – Whitney U test, Kruskal Wallis test, Augmented Dickey – Fuller test statistic, t- statistic, Granger causality test, F- statistic, Johansen co – integration test, Trace statistic and Max –Eigen statistic. The study found that 71.5 per cent of the total hedges are effective and 28.5 per cent are ineffective for the period under study. It implies that futures market in rubber reduced the impact of price risks by approximately 71.5 per cent. Further, it is observed that, on 54.4 per cent occasions, the futures market exercised a stabilizing effect on the spot market, and on 45.6 per cent occasions futures trading exercised a destabilizing effect on the spot market. It implies that elasticity of expectation of futures market in rubber has a predominant stabilizing effect on spot prices. The market, as a whole, exhibits a bias in favour of long hedges. Spot price volatility of rubber during futures suspension period is more than that of the pre suspension period and post suspension period. There is a bi-directional association-ship or bi-directional causality or pair- wise causality between spot price and futures price of rubber. From the results of the hedging efficiency, spot price volatility, and price discovery, it can be concluded that rubber futures market fulfils all the economic functions expected from a commodity futures market. Thus in India, the future of rubber futures is Bright…!!!