The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain

We estimate the impact of the different climate variables on the value of Spanish farmland. We distinguish between irrigated and non-irrigated lands and use data on temperature, precipitations, physical and socioeconomic characteristics to measure these effects on farm prices and in the number of hectares of farmland. We conclude presenting the main results of our analysis, region by region, and examining the policies that could be more effective to prevent undesired effects.

Relationships between climate and winter cereal grain quality in Finland and their potential for forecasting

Selostus: Sään vaikutus syysviljojen hehtolitran painoon ennusteen laadinnan näkökulmasta

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

Leaf nutritional levels in peach and nectarine grown in subtropical climate

The study evaluated the leaf nutritional levels of peach and nectarine trees under subtropical climate in order to improve the fertilization practices. The experiment was carried out in São Paulo state University, Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. The experimental design consisted of subdivided plots, in which plots corresponded to cultivars and subplots to the leaf sample periods. The evaluated peach cultivars were: Marli, Turmalina, Precocinho, Jubileu, Cascata 968, Cascata 848, CP 951C, CP 9553CYN, and Tropic Beauty, and that of nectarine was 'Sun Blaze'. The sample periods were: after harvest, plants in vegetative period; dormancy; beginning of flowering and fruiting (standard sample). Results indicated significant variations in the levels of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn for the sampling period and in N, Ca, Mg, S, B, Fe and Mn levels for the cultivars.

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Mating disruption with low density diffusers for the management of oriental fruit moths (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in apple orchards under subtropical climate in southern Brazil

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta Busck, and fruit flies, Anastrepha fraterculus L., are the important apple pests under Subtropical climate in Southern Brazil, and control is normally accomplished with insecticides. An alternative strategy for the control of G. molesta is mating disruption, through the use of pheromones. Mating disruption strategies using a low density of dispensers (20) per hectare were tested in comparison with conventional pesticides for control of G. molesta in commercial Gala apple orchards in Fraiburgo, SC, for a period of five years. The average field efficiency period of mating disruption formulation over five years was 113 days. In this period the mating interruption index on mating disruption plots was 84.8% over five years. Damage to Gala apples by oriental moth larvae was low (<0.1%) in mating disruption plots but did not differ from conventional plots, except in the third year. The use of mating disruption allowed for an average reduction of 5.2 insecticide treatments per year in Gala orchards during field efficiency period. It was necessary to apply 1.0 and 1.2 applications of insecticide to control of G. molesta and A. fraterculus, respectively. Mating disruption with a low density of diffusers proved to be an effective alternative to conventional methods for control of G. molesta in Gala apple orchards in subtropical climate in southern Brazil.

New Climate Change Related EC Directives and Their Interrelations to Green Electricity and Certificate Practices

Työn päätavoite on tutkia vihreän sähkön ja sertifikaattien kaupan ja EY:n uusien ilmastonmuutosta koskevien direktiivien ja direktiiviehdotusten välisiä yhteyksiä. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään direktiiviä sähköntuotannosta uusiutuvilla energialähteillä ja direktiiviehdotuksia Euroopan Unionin alueen päästökaupasta sekä yhdistetyn sähkön ja lämmön tuotannon lisäämisestä. Työ keskittyy erään suomalaisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen toimiin ilmastonmuutoksen hidastamiseksi. Tutkimus keskittyy pääosin EU:n suunnitelmaan aloittaa Unionin jäsenvaltioiden välinen päästökauppa, koska tämä järjestelmä tulee toteutuessaan olemaan teollisuuden kannalta merkittävä. Tilannetta on analysoitu neljän sellu- ja paperitehtaan hiilidioksidipäästölaskelmien avulla. Työssä kehitettyjä laskumalleja voidaan käyttää avuksi yhtiön muilla tehtailla. Tämän lisäksi työssä on luotu malli energiainvestointien arvioimiseksi tulevaisuudessa ottamalla päästöoikeuden hinnan vaikutus huomioon. Päästökaupan vaikutukset pohjoismaisilla vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on analysoity, koska teollinen sähkönhankinta on suuresti riippuvainen tästä markkinasta. Suomen metsäteollisuuden oma yhdistetty sähkön ja lämmön tuotanto erityisesti uusiutuvista energialähteistä tulee olemaan entistäkin tärkeämpää tiukentuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Tällä hetkellä on käynnissä kokeilu lisäarvon saamiseksi omalle sähköntuotannolle. Tällä haetaan kokemuksia ja valmiutta tulevaa päästökauppaa varten.

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

BACKGROUND: The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. RESULTS: We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

Climate niche conservatism does not explain restricted distribution patterns in Tynanthus (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae)

Studies on niche evolution allow us to establish how species niches have changed over time as well as to identify how long-term evolutionary processes have led to present-day species distributions. Here, we investigate the patterns of climatic niche evolution in Tynanthus (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae), a genus comprising narrowly distributed species. We test the hypothesis that niche conservatism has played an important role in the diversification history of this group of Neotropical lianas. For that, we perform univariate and multivariate comparisons between species' climatic niches and associated environmental data with information on species' phylogenetic relationships. We encountered considerable divergence in niches among species, indicating that niche conservatism in climatic variables has does not seem to havenot played a key role in the diversification of the genus. Our results are used as a basis to discuss patterns of ecological niche evolution in the group and to suggest novel approaches for future analyses.

Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes

Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are presently seriously threatened by global development and population growth, leading to increases in nutrient inputs and intensification of eutrophication-induced problems in receiving fresh waters, particularly in lakes. Climate change constitutes another threat exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication and species migration and loss. Unequivocal evidence of climate change impacts is still highly fragmented despite the intensive research, in part due to the variety and uncertainty of climate models and underlying emission scenarios but also due to the different approaches applied to study its effects. We first describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multi-faceted approaches that are presently available for elucidating the effects of climate change in lakes, including space-for-time substitution, time series, experiments, palaeoecology and modelling. Reviewing combined results from studies based on the various approaches, we describe the likely effects of climate changes on biological communities, trophic dynamics and the ecological state of lakes. We further discuss potential mitigation and adaptation measures to counteract the effects of climate change on lakes and, finally, we highlight some of the future challenges that we face to improve our capacity for successful prediction.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-