On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Possible absence of attraction to odor in Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under laboratory conditions

We tested the attraction of Panstrongylus megistus odor under laboratory conditons, between males and females of this species and by individuals of each sex on recently fed virgin couples. We employed a system of choice boxes both with or without aeration over the stimuli in the tested situations. We also observed a clear trend among the insects to remain in the central box where they had been placed in the beginning of the tests.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Complete immunization against Trypanosoma cruzi verified in individual mice by complement-mediated lysis

Experimental systems to assay immunity against Trypanosoma cruzi usually demonstrate partial resistance without excluding the establishment of sub-patent infections in protected animals. To test whether Swiss mice immunized with attenuated parasites might develop complete resistance against virulent T. cruzi, experiments were performed involving challenge with low numbers of parasites, enhancement of local inflammation and the combination of natural and acquired resistance. Absence of infection was established after repeated negative parasitological tests (including xenodiagnosis and hemoculture), and lack of lytic antibody was tested by complement mediated lysis. Immunization with 10(7) attenuated epimastigotes conferred protection against the development of high levels of parasitemia after challenge with Tulahuen strain, but was unable to reduce the number of infected animals. However, when a strong, delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction was triggered at the site of infection by injecting a mixture of virulent and attenuated T. cruzi, a significant proportion of immunized animals remained totally free of virulent infection. The same result was obtained when the immunization experiment was performed in four month old Swiss mice, displaying a relatively high natural resistance and challenged with wild, vector-borne parasites. These experiments demonstrate that complete resistance against T. cruzi can be obtained in a significant proportion of animals, under conditions which replicate natural, vector delivered infection by the parasite.

Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P<.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Dibenzofuran degradation by Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 under environmental stresses

Sphingomonas wittichii is a gram-negative Alpha-proteobacterium, capable of degrading xenobiotic compounds such as dibenzofuran (DBF), dibenzo-p-dioxin, carbazole, 2-hydroxybiphenyl or nitro diphenyl ether herbicides. The metabolism of strain RW1 has been the subject of previous studies and a number of genes involved in DBF degradation have been characterized. It is known that RW1 posseses a unique initial DBF dioxygenase (encoded by the dxnAl gene) that catalyzes the first step in the degradation pathway. None of the organisms known to be able to degrade DBF have a similar dioxygenase, the closest match being the DBF dioxygenase from Rhodococcus sp. with an overall amino acid similarity of 45%. Genes participating in the conversion of the metabolite salicylate via the ortho-cleavage pathway to TCA cycle intermediates were identified as well. Apart from this scarce information, however, there is a lack of global knowledge on the genes that are involved in DBF degradation by strain RW1 and the influence of environmental stresses on DBF-dependent global gene expression. A global analysis is necessary, because it may help to better understand the behaviour of the strain under field conditions and suggest improvements for the current bioaugmentation practice. Chapter 2 describes the results of whole-genome analysis to characterize the genes involved in DBF degradation by RW1. Micro-array analysis allowed us to detect differences in gene transcription when strain RW1 was exposed to DBF. This was complemented by ultra-high throughput sequencing of mutants no longer capable of growing on salicylate and DBF. Some of the genes of the ortho-cleavage pathway were induced 2 to 4 times in the presence of DBF, as well as the initial DBF dioxygenase. However two gene clusters, named 4925 and 5102 were induced up to 19 times in response to DBF induction. The cluster 4925 is putatively participating in a meta-cleavage pathway while the cluster 5102 might be part of a gentisate pathway. The three pathways, ortho-cleavage, meta-cleavage and gentisate pathway seem to be active in parallel when strain RW1 is exposed to DBF, presenting evidence for a redundancy of genes for DBF degradation in the genome of RW1. Chapter 3 focuses on exploiting genetic tools to construct bioreporters representative for DBF degradation in RW1. A set of basic tools for genetic manipulation in Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 was tested and optimized. Both plasmids and mini-transposons were evaluated for their ability to be maintained in RW1 with or without antibiotic selection pressure, and for their ability to lead to fluorescent protein expression in strain RW1 from a constitutive promoter. Putative promoter regions of three of the previously found DBF-induced genes (Swit_4925, Swit_5102 and Swit_4897-dxnAl) were then used to construct eg/^-bioreporters in RW1. Chapter 4 describes the use of the constructed RW1-based bioreporter strains for examining the expression of the DBF degradation pathway genes under microcosm conditions. The bioreporter strains were first exposed to different carbon sources in liquid culture to calibrate the egfp induction. Contrary to our expectations from micro-array analysis only the construct with the promoter from gene cluster 4925 responded to DBF, whereas the other two constructs did not show specific induction with DBF. The response from the bioreporters was subsequently tested for sensitivity to water stress, given that this could have an important impact in soils. Exposure to liquid cultures with decreasing water potential, achieved by NaCl or PEG addition to the growth media, showed that eGFP expression in RW1 from the promoter regions 4925 and 5102 was not directly influenced by water stress, but only through an overall reduction in growth rate. In contrast, expression of eGFP from the dxnAl or an uspA promoter was also directly dependent on the extent of water stress. The RW1 with the 4925 construct was subsequently used in soil microcosms to evaluate DBF bioavailability to the cells in presence or absence of native microbiota or other contaminated material. We found that RW1 could grow on DBF added to soil, but bioreporter expression suggested that competition with native microbiota for DBF intermediates may limit its ability to proliferate to a maximum. Chapter 5 describes the results from the experiments carried out to more specifically detect genes of RW1 that might be implicated in water stress resistance. Hereto we created transposon mutagenesis libraries in RW1, either with a classical mini-Tn5 or with a variant that would express egfp when the transposon would insert in a gene induced under water stress. Classical mutant libraries were screened by replica plating under high and low water stress conditions (achieved by adding NaCl to the agar medium). In addition, we screened for smaller microcolonies formed by mutants in agarose beads that could be analized with flow cytometry. A number of mutants impaired to grow on NaCl-supplemented media were recovered and the transposon insertion sites sequenced. In a second procedure we screened by flow cytometry for mutants with a higher eGFP production after exposure to growth medium with higher NaCl concentrations. Mutants from both libraries rarely overlapped. Discovered gene functions of the transposon insertions pointed to compatible solute synthesis (glutamate and proline), cell membrane synthesis and modification of cell membrane composition. The results obtained in the present study give us a more complete picture of the mechanisms of DBF degradation by S. wittichii RW1, how it reacts to different DBF availability and how the DBF catabolic activity may be affected by the conditions found in contaminated environments. - Sphingomonas wittichii est une alpha-protéobactérie gram-négative, capable de dégrader des composés xénobiotiques tels que le dibenzofurane (DBF), la dibenzo-p-dioxine, le carbazole, le 2-hydroxybiphényle ou les herbicides dérivés du nitro-diphényléther. Le métabolisme de la souche RW1 a fait l'objet d'études antérieures et un certain nombre de gènes impliqués dans la dégradation du DBF ont été caractérisés. Il est connu que RW1 possède une unique dioxygénase DBF initiale (codée par le gène dxnAl) qui catalyse la première étape de la voie de dégradation. Aucun des organismes connus pour être capables de dégrader le DBF n'a de dioxygénase similaire. L'enzyme la plus proche étant la DBF dioxygénase de Rhodococcus sp. avec 45% d'acides aminés conservés. Les gènes qui participent à la transformation du salicylate en métabolites intermédiaires du cycle de Krebs par la voie ort/io-cleavage ont aussi été identifiés. Outre ces informations lacunaires, il y a un manque de connaissances sur l'ensemble des gènes impliqués dans la dégradation du DBF par la souche RW1 ainsi que l'effet des stress environnementaux sur l'expression génétique globale, en présence du DBF. Une analyse globale est nécessaire, car elle peut aider à mieux comprendre le comportement de la souche dans les conditions de terrain et de proposer des améliorations pour l'utilisation de la bio-augmentation comme technique de bio-remédiation. Le chapitre 2 décrit les résultats de l'analyse du génome pour caractériser les gènes impliqués dans la dégradation du DBF par RW1. Une analyse de micro-arrays nous a permis de détecter des différences dans la transcription des gènes lorsque la souche RW1 a été exposée au DBF. L'analyse a été complétée par le criblage à ultra-haut débit de mutants qui n'étaient plus capables de croître avec le salicylate ou le DBF comme seule source de carbone. Certains des gènes de la voie ortho-cleavage, dont la DBF dioxygénase initiale, ont xî été induits 2 à 4 fois, en présence du DBF. Cependant, deux groupes de gènes, nommés 4925 et 5102 ont été induits jusqu'à 19 fois en réponse au DBF. Le cluster 4925 participe probablement dans une voie de meta-cleavage tandis que le cluster 5102 pourrait faire partie d'une voie du gentisate. Les trois voies, ortho-cleavage, meta-cleavage et la voie du gentisate semblent être activées en parallèle lorsque la souche RW1 est exposée au DBF, ce qui représente une redondance de voies pour la dégradation du DBF dans le génome de RW1. Le chapitre 3 se concentre sur l'exploitation des outils génétiques pour la construction de biorapporteurs de la dégradation du DBF par RW1. Un ensemble d'outils de base pour la manipulation génétique dans Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 a été testé et optimisé. Deux plasmides et mini-transposons ont été évalués pour leur capacité à être maintenu dans RW1 avec ou sans pression de sélection par des antibiotiques, et pour leur capacité à exprimer la protéine fluorescente verte (eGFP) dans la souche RW1. Les trois promoteurs des gènes Swit_4925, Swit_5102 et Swit_4897 (dxnAl), induits en réponse au DBF, ont ensuite été utilisés pour construire des biorapporteurs dans RW1. Le chapitre 4 décrit l'utilisation des souches biorapportrices construites pour l'analyse de l'expression des gènes de la voie de dégradation du DBF dans des microcosmes avec différents types de sols. Les souches biorapportrices ont d'abord été exposées à différentes sources de carbone en cultures liquides afin de calibrer l'induction de la eGFP. La construction avec le promoteur du gène 4925 a permis une réponse au DBF. Mais contrairement à nos attentes, basées sur les résultats de l'analyse des micro-arrays, les deux autres constructions n'ont pas montré d'induction spécifique au DBF. La réponse des biorapporteurs a ensuite été testée pour la sensibilité au stress hydrique, étant donné que cela pourrait avoir un impact important dans les microcosmes. La diminution du potentiel hydrique en culture liquide est obtenue par addition de NaCl ou de PEG au milieu de croissance. Nous avons montré que l'expression de la eGFP contrôlée par les promoteurs 4925 et 5102 n'était pas directement influencée par le stress hydrique, mais seulement par une réduction globale des taux de croissance. En revanche, l'expression de la eGFP dépendante des promoteurs dxnAl et uspA était aussi directement dépendante de l'ampleur du stress hydrique. La souche avec la construction 4925 a été utilisée par la suite dans des microcosmes avec différents types de sols pour évaluer la biodisponibilité du DBF en présence ou absence des microbes indigènes et d'autres composés contaminants. Nous avons constaté que RW1 pouvait se développer si le DBF a été ajouté au sol, mais l'expression de la eGFP par le biorapporteur suggère que la compétition avec la microbiota indigène pour les métabolites intermédiaires du DBF peut limiter sa capacité à proliférer de manière optimale. Le chapitre 5 décrit les résultats des expériences réalisées afin de détecter spécifiquement les gènes de RW1 qui pourraient être impliquées dans la résistance au stress hydrique. Ici on a crée des bibliothèques de mutants de RW1 par transposon, soit avec un mini-Tn5 classique ou avec une variante qui exprime la eGFP lorsque le transposon s'insère dans un gène induit par le stress hydrique. Les bibliothèques de mutants ont été criblées par la méthode classique de repiquage sur boîtes, dans des conditions de stress hydrique élevé (obtenu par l'addition de NaCl dans les boîtes). En outre, nous avons criblé des micro¬colonies dans des billes d'agarose qui ont pu être analysées par cytométrie de flux. Un certain nombre de mutants déficients à croître sur des milieux supplémentés avec du NaCl ont été isolés et les sites d'insertion du transposon séquencés. Dans une deuxième procédure nous avons criblé par cytométrie de flux des mutants avec une production de eGFP supérieure, après exposition à un milieu de croissance avec une concentration élevée de NaCl. Les mutants obtenus dans les deux bibliothèques n'étaient pas similaires. Les fonctions des gènes où se trouvent les insertions de transposons sont impliqués dans la synthèse de solutés compatibles (glutamate et de la proline), dans la synthèse de la membrane cellulaire et dans la modification de la composition de la membrane cellulaire. Les résultats obtenus dans la présente étude nous donnent une image plus complète des mécanismes de dégradation du DBF par S. wittichii RW1, comment cette souche réagit à la disponibilité du DBF et comment l'activité catabolique peut être affectée par les conditions rencontrées dans des environnements contaminés.

Group strategy-proof social choice functions with binary ranges and arbitrary domains: characterization results

We define different concepts of group strategy-proofness for social choice functions. We discuss the connections between the defined concepts under different assumptions on their domains of definition. We characterize the social choice functions that satisfy each one of them and whose ranges consist of two alternatives, in terms of two types of basic properties.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Effects of environmental temperature on life tables of Rhodnius neivai Lent, 1953 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under experimental conditions

Changes in life tables of Rhodnius neivai due to variations of environmental temperature were studied, based on nine cohorts. Three cohorts were kept at 22°C, three at 27°C and three at 32°C. Cohorts were censused daily during nymphal instars and weekly in adults. Nine complete horizontal life tables were built. A high negative correlation between temperature and age at first laying was registered (r=-0,84). Age at maximum reproduction was significantly lower at 32°C. Average number of eggs/female/week and total eggs/female on its life time were significantly lower at 22°C. Total number of egg by cohort and total number of reproductive weeks were significantly higher at 27°C. At 32°C, generational time was significantly lower. At 27°C net reproductive rate and total reproductive value were significantly higher. At 22°C, intrinsic growth, finite growth and finite birth rates were significantly lower. At 22°C, death instantaneous rate was significantly higher.

Anesthesia of Biomphalaria spp. (Mollusca, Gastropoda): sodium pentobarbital is the drug of choice

The anesthetic effect of some water-soluble anesthesic or narcotic drugs currently used in mice was tested in molluscs of the Biomphalaria genus. Sodium thiopental was very toxic to the snails resulting in high rates of mortality in all the treatment schedules tested. Cetamine base, at concentration of 0.25 mg/ml of water, resulted in partial snail anesthesia (40% of snails were anesthetized) only after 20 h of exposition. The association of Cetamine base with Tiazine chloridrate did not improve the anesthesic effect, and higher concentrations of these drugs were toxic to the snails. Sodium pentobarbital at 0.4 mg/ml in water for 8 h was the best treatment schedule to anesthetize Biomphalaria snails. In this schedule, the snails were anesthetized without any toxic effect. The procedure provides a powerful tool for in vivo studies that demande a complete state of snail anesthesia.

Biology of Triatoma flavida Neiva, 1911 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under laboratory conditions

The complete life cycle of Triatoma flavida, weekly fed on hens, was studied at 28±2°C and 80±10% RH. Aspects related to hatching, life span, mortality and feeding behavior for each stage of its life cycle were evaluated. The hatching rate observed for 100 eggs was 93% with an average incubation period of 27.2 days. Sixty-two nymphs completed the cycle and the mean egg to adult development time was 230.4 days. Mean duration of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th instar nymphs was 22.1, 25.3, 36.7, 49.7 and 69.4 days, respectively. The number of blood meals on each nymphal stage varied from 1 to 7. The mortality rate was 6.5% for NI, 23% for NIII and 7.5% for NV nymphs. Mean number of laid eggs per female was 283.1. Adult survival rates were 344.8 ± 256.4 days for males and 285.3 ± 201.8 days for females.

Iterative reconstruction methods in two different MDCT scanners: Physical metrics and 4-alternative forced-choice detectability experiments - A phantom approach.

This paper characterizes and evaluates the potential of three commercial CT iterative reconstruction methods (ASIR?, VEO? and iDose(4 ()?())) for dose reduction and image quality improvement. We measured CT number accuracy, standard deviation (SD), noise power spectrum (NPS) and modulation transfer function (MTF) metrics on Catphan phantom images while five human observers performed four-alternative forced-choice (4AFC) experiments to assess the detectability of low- and high-contrast objects embedded in two pediatric phantoms. Results show that 40% and 100% ASIR as well as iDose(4) levels 3 and 6 do not affect CT number and strongly decrease image noise with relative SD constant in a large range of dose. However, while ASIR produces a shift of the NPS curve apex, less change is observed with iDose(4) with respect to FBP methods. With second-generation iterative reconstruction VEO, physical metrics are even further improved: SD decreased to 70.4% at 0.5 mGy and spatial resolution improved to 37% (MTF(50%)). 4AFC experiments show that few improvements in detection task performance are obtained with ASIR and iDose(4), whereas VEO makes excellent detections possible even at an ultra-low-dose (0.3 mGy), leading to a potential dose reduction of a factor 3 to 7 (67%-86%). In spite of its longer reconstruction time and the fact that clinical studies are still required to complete these results, VEO clearly confirms the tremendous potential of iterative reconstructions for dose reduction in CT and appears to be an important tool for patient follow-up, especially for pediatric patients where cumulative lifetime dose still remains high.

Why do scientists migrate? A diffusion model

The article is intended to improve our understanding of the reasons underlying the intellectual migration of scientists from well-known cognitive domains to nascent scientific fields. To that purpose we present, first, a number of findings from the sociology of science that give different insights about this phenomenon. We then attempt to bring some of these insights together under the conceptual roof of an actor-based approach linking expected utility and diffusion theory. Intellectual migration is regarded as the rational choice of scientists who decide under uncertainty and on the base of a number of decision-making variables, which define probabilities, costs, and benefits of the migration.

Methods for testing association between uncertain genotypes and quantitative traits.

Interpretability and power of genome-wide association studies can be increased by imputing unobserved genotypes, using a reference panel of individuals genotyped at higher marker density. For many markers, genotypes cannot be imputed with complete certainty, and the uncertainty needs to be taken into account when testing for association with a given phenotype. In this paper, we compare currently available methods for testing association between uncertain genotypes and quantitative traits. We show that some previously described methods offer poor control of the false-positive rate (FPR), and that satisfactory performance of these methods is obtained only by using ad hoc filtering rules or by using a harsh transformation of the trait under study. We propose new methods that are based on exact maximum likelihood estimation and use a mixture model to accommodate nonnormal trait distributions when necessary. The new methods adequately control the FPR and also have equal or better power compared to all previously described methods. We provide a fast software implementation of all the methods studied here; our new method requires computation time of less than one computer-day for a typical genome-wide scan, with 2.5 M single nucleotide polymorphisms and 5000 individuals.

Freedom of choice of specialist physicians is important to Swiss resident: a cross-sectional study.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: To assess how important the possibility to choose specialist physicians is for Swiss residents and to determine which variables are associated with this opinion. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data from the 2007 Swiss population-based health survey and included 13,642 non-institutionalised adults who responded to the telephone and paper questionnaires. The dependent variable included answers to the question "How important is it for you to be able to choose the specialist you would like to visit?" Independent variables included socio-demographics, health and past year healthcare use measures. Crude and adjusted logistic regressions for the importance of being able to choose specialist physicians were performed, accounting for the survey design. RESULTS: 45% of participants found it very important to be able to choose the specialist physician they wanted to visit. The answers "rather important", "rather not important" and "not important" were reported by 28%, 20% and 7% of respondents. Women, individuals in middle/high executive position, those with an ordinary insurance scheme, those reporting ≥2 chronic conditions or poorer subjective health, or those who had had ≥2 outpatient visits in the preceding year were more likely to find this choice very important. CONCLUSIONS: In 2007, almost half of all Swiss residents found it very important to be able to choose his/her specialist physician. The further development of physician networks or other chronic disease management initiatives in Switzerland, towards integrated care, need to pay attention to the freedom of choice of specialist physicians that Swiss residents value. Future surveys should provide information on access and consultations with specialist physicians.