Modelo del sistema de gestión de la calidad y el desempeño organizacional en la producción de petróleo

El proceso de cambio de una sociedad industrial a una sociedad del conocimiento, que experimenta el mundo globalizado en el siglo XXI, induce a las empresas y organizaciones a desarrollar ventajas competitivas y sostenibles basadas en sus activos intangibles, entre los cuales destacan los sistemas de gestión en general y los sistemas de gestión de la calidad (SGC) en particular. Las organizaciones dedicadas a la producción de petróleo están influenciadas por dicha tendencia. El petróleo es un recurso natural con reservas limitadas, cuya producción y consumo ha crecido progresivamente, aportando la mayor cuota (35 %) del total de la energía que se consume en el mundo contemporáneo, aporte que se mantendrá hasta el año 2035, según las previsiones más conservadoras. Por tanto, se hace necesario desarrollar modelos de producción innovadores, que contribuyan a la mejora del factor de recobro de los yacimientos y de la vida útil de los mismos, al tiempo que satisfagan los requerimientos de producción y consumo diarios de los exigentes mercados globales. El objeto de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo de gestión de la calidad y su efecto en el desempeño organizacional, a través del efecto mediador de los constructos satisfacción del cliente interno y gestión del conocimiento en la producción de petróleo. Esta investigación de carácter explicativo, no experimental, transeccional y ex-postfacto, se realizó en la región petrolífera del lago de Maracaibo, al occidente de Venezuela, la cual tiene más de 70 años en producción y cuenta con yacimientos maduros. La población objeto de estudio fue de 369 trabajadores petroleros, quienes participaron en las mesas técnicas de la calidad, durante los meses de mayo y julio del año 2012, los cuales en su mayoría están en proceso de formación como analistas, asesores y auditores de los SGC. La técnica de muestreo aplicada fue de tipo aleatorio simple, con una muestra de 252 individuos. A la misma se le aplicó un cuestionario diseñado ad hoc, el cual fue validado por las técnicas de juicio de expertos y prueba piloto. El procedimiento de investigación se realizó a través de una secuencia, que incluyó la elaboración de un modelo teórico, basado en la revisión del estado del arte; un modelo factorial, sobre la base del análisis factorial de los datos de la encuesta; un modelo de regresión lineal, elaborado a través del método de regresión lineal simple y múltiple; un modelo de análisis de sendero, realizado con el software Amos 20 SPSS y finalmente, un modelo informático, realizado con el simulador Vensim PLE v.6.2. Los resultados obtenidos indican que el modelo teórico se transformó en un modelo empírico, en el cual, la variable independiente fue el SGC, la variable mediadora fue la integración de las dimensiones eliminación de la no conformidad, satisfacción del cliente interno y aprendizaje organizacional (ENCSCIAO) y la variable respuesta la integración de las dimensiones desempeño organizacional y aprendizaje organizacional (DOOA). Se verificó el efecto mediador del ENSCIAO sobre la relación SGC-DOOA con una bondad del ajuste, del 42,65%. En el modelo de regresión múltiple se encontró que las variables determinantes son eliminación de la no conformidad (ENC), conocimiento adquirido (CA) y conocimiento espontáneo (CE), lo cual fue corroborado con el modelo de análisis de sendero. El modelo informático se desarrolló empleando datos aproximados de una unidad de producción tipo, generándose cuatro escenarios; siendo el más favorable, aquel en el cual se aplicaba el SGC y variables relacionadas, reduciendo la desviación de la producción, incrementando el factor de recobro y ampliando la vida útil del yacimiento. Se concluye que la aplicación del SGC y constructos relacionados favorece el desempeño y la producción de las unidades de explotación de yacimientos petrolíferos maduros. Los principales aportes de la tesis son la obtención de un modelo de gestión de la producción de petróleo en yacimientos maduros, basado en los SGC. Asimismo, el desarrollo de un concepto de gestión de la calidad asociado a la reducción de la desviación de la producción petrolífera anual, al incremento del factor de recobro y al aumento de la vida útil del yacimiento. Las futuras líneas de investigación están orientadas a la aplicación del modelo en contextos reales y específicos, para medir su impacto y realizar los ajustes pertinentes. ABSTRACT The process of change from an industrial society to a knowledge-based society, which undergoes the globalized world in the twenty-first century, induces companies and organizations to develop a sustainable and competitive advantages based on its intangible assets, among which are noteworthy the management systems in general and particularly the quality management systems (QMS). Organizations engaged in oil production are influenced by said trend. Oil is a natural resource with limited reserves, where production and consumption has grown progressively, providing the largest share (35%) of the total energy consumed in the contemporary world, a contribution that will remain until the year 2035 according to the more conservative trust estimations. Therefore, it becomes necessary to develop innovative production models which contribute with the improvement of reservoirs´ recovery factor and the lifetime thereof, while meeting the production requirements and daily consumption of demanding global markets. The aim of this research is to develop a model of quality management and its effect on organizational performance through the mediator effect of the constructs, internal customer satisfaction and knowledge management in oil production. This research of explanatory nature, not experimental, transactional and expos-facto was carried out in the oil-region of Maracaibo Lake located to the west of Venezuela, which has more than 70 years in continuous production and has mature reservoirs. The population under study was 369 oil workers who participated in the technical quality workshops, during the months of May and July of 2012, the majority of which were in the process of training as analysts, consultants and auditors of the QMS. The sampling technique applied was simple random type. To a sample of 252 individuals of the population it was applied an ad hoc designed questionnaire, which was validated by the techniques of expert judgment and pilot test. The research procedure was performed through a sequence, which included the elaboration of a theoretical model, based on the review of the state of the art; a factorial model with based on factorial analysis of the survey data; a linear regression model, developed through the method of simple and multiple linear regression; a structural equation model, made with software °Amos 20 SPSS° and finally, a computer model, performed with the simulator Vensim PLE v.6.2. The results indicate that the theoretical model was transformed into an empirical model, in which the independent variable was the QMS, the mediator variable was the integration of the dimensions: elimination of non-conformity, internal customer satisfaction and organizational learning (ENCSCIAO) and the response variable the integration of the dimensions, organizational performance and learning organizational (DOOA). ENSCIAO´s mediator effect on the relation QMS-DOOA was verified with a goodness of fit of 42,65%. In the multiple regression model was found to be the determining variables are elimination of nonconformity (ENC), knowledge acquired (CA) and spontaneous knowledge (EC), which was verified with the structural equation model. The computer model was developed based on approximate data of an oil production unit type, creating four (04) scenarios; being the most favorable, that one which it was applied the QMS and related variables, reducing the production deviation, increasing the recovery factor and extending the lifetime of the reservoir. It is concluded that QMS implementation powered with the related constructs, favors performance and production of mature oilfield of exploitation reservoirs units. The main contributions of this thesis are obtaining a management model for oil production in mature oilfields, based on QMS. In addition, development of a concept of quality associated to reduce the annual oil production deviation, increase the recovery factor and increase oilfield lifetime. Future lines of research are oriented to the implementation of this model in real and specific contexts to measure its impact and make the necessary adjustments that might take place.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Análisis del comportamiento de las tuberías de poliéster reforzado con fibra de vidrio con capa de arena

Aunque las primeras fábricas de tubos de poliéster reforzado con fibra de vidrio en España datan del año 1984, no es sino hasta el año 1996 cuando se comienza su utilización masiva como un sustituto de las tuberías de fribrocemento, que ya habían sido prohibidas por la legislación, debido a los efectos cancerígenos de este material. Desde entonces se ha prodigado la utilización de todas las diferentes tipologías de esta clase de tubería, de conformidad a los procesos de fabricación empleados que se encuentran recopilados en el AWWA Manual M45 (Fiberglass Pipe Design), obteniéndose muy diversos resultados. Durante estos años, ha surgido una creciente preocupación en los usuarios de este tipo de tuberías dadas las continuas y numerosas averías en todo el ámbito geográfico. Esto ha promovido el desarrollo de la presente investigaicón, que se ha dividido en dos partes y que ha concluido con la determinación de un nuevo mecanismo específico de fractura. La primera parte se centró en la obtención y desarrollo del modelo teórico que hemos venido a denominar como "Teoría de la Caja Mecánicamente Contaminada", y que está basado en la contaminación o separación por un impacto de dos de las tres capas que forman la tubería, la capa intermedia de arena y la capa más interna o "inner layer". La consecuencia es la disminución del canto resistente, la rotura del inner layer y la entrada de fluido a la capa de arena. Para la evaluación de la magnitud de esta separación se ha desarrollado un modelo analítico que ha determinado la existencia de una relación cuadrática que la rige, y que ha sido verificado mediante ensayos de impacto sobre probetas de tuberías, alcanzando ajustes de hasta el 92%. Así, se ha determinado que impactos de muy baja intensidad, del entorno de 90 a 160 Julios en tuberías Filament Winding continuo PN 16-20 (de 800 a 1000mm) pueden comprometer seriamente la integridad estructural de la tubería sin dejar, en un principio, muesca o traza alguna que pueda alertar del problema. Los siguientes pasos en el estudio se dirigieron a determinar qué otros mecanismos, aparte del golpe, podrían contaminar la tubería y a estudiar el consiguiente avance de la fractura a las capas externas. Se trataba además de analizar la aparición en el tubo de unas misteriosas manchas en forma de "piel de leopardo" y de otros fenómenos aparecidos en las averías como que algunas de las deformaciones de la rotura por presión interna son hacia el interior del tubo y no al revés, como habría sido de esperar a priori. Se optó entonces por comenzar la que ha constituido la segunda parte de la investigación. Para ello se recurrió a realizar ensayos hidráulicos en banco de pruebas a alta presión, cuyos resultados fueron sorprendentes al descubrir que en el proceso se producía la hidrólisis de la resina de poliéster no catalizada que fluía hacia el exterior del tubo. Como consecuencia se llevaron a cabo nuevos ensayos físicos y químicos para estudiar la migración del material y la hidrólisis producida en el proceso de fractura. En este estudio, resultó muy relevante el hecho de sobrepasar o no la presión que producía el desagarro entre las capas del tubo. En definitiva, en esta investigación, que ha constado de estudios analíticos y estudios experimentales, químicos y numéricos, se ha determinado un nuevo mecanismo de fractura que explica gran parte de los fallos acontecidos en las tuberías de poliéster reforzado con fibra de vidrio. Como aplicación se exponen recomendaciones para mejorar el comportamiento mecánico de esta tipología y evitar así los sobrecostes millonarios producidos por su reposición. Numerous and continuous failures in fiberglass reinforced polyester pipes of different companies and manufacturing processes of the AWWA Manual M45 (Fiberglass Pipe Design), have prompted the development of this research, that has concluded with a specific mechanism describing pipe fractures. This research was carried out via two independent studies. The first one is the development of the hypothesis that turned into the Mechanically Contaminated Layer Theory. This theory describes the fracture mchanism which explains a significant part of massive failures due to the existence of a sand layer placed near the neutral axis in the core making the composite very sensitive to impacts in fibreglass reinforced polyester pipes. These failures create interface delamination and consequently fluid can leak into supporting sand backfill thereby iniating the fracture process. In order to assess the delimination magnitude, an analytic method is developed and a squared root law between delamination and energy applied proposed. Vertical blunt ram testts on samples extracted from complete pipes have been carried out to verify this theory, reaching a goodness of fit up to 92%. It is concluded that low energy impacts, around 90-160J in 800-1000mm diameter PN 16-20 continuous filament winding pipes, can seriously compromise their structural integraty with no external trace. The next step in the study was to determine what other mechanism, apart from the brittle hit, could contaminate the pipe and to analyse the consequente advance of the fracture to the external layers. Another aim was to analyse two phenomena occurred in real pipe failures. The first one is the appearance on the tube of "leopard fur" stains on some of the analysed failures, and the other phenomenon is the "inverse fracture", in which the deformations of the failure due to internal pressure are towards the inside of the tube and not the other way round, as it would be expected. It was then chosen to follow a new branch of the investigation by hydraulic high-pressure bench tests that study seepage and load transmission. The results were very surprising as it was discovered that in the process, hydrolysis of the non-catalysed polyester resin occured, flowing towards the outer of the pipe, which entailed the development of chemical and physical tests of the exuded material to study material migration and hydrolysis of the fracture process. In this particular study it was relevant to exceed or not the pressure that produced the rip between the layers of the tube. In conclusion, a new breakage mechanism in FRP pies with sand-filled layer has been found, which explains a high part of the failure global cases. The whole failure process is justified by the Mechanically Contaminated Layer Theory, which has been corroborated by means of analytical, numerical and experimental studies. Several recommendations are also provided in order to improve the mechanical behaviour of this typology and avoid the millionaire overruns generated by its massive failures.

Psychometric behaviour of the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ) in the Spanish national health survey 2006

Background: The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a tool to measure the risk for mental disorders in children. The aim of this study is to describe the diagnostic efficiency and internal structure of the SDQ in the sample of children studied in the Spanish National Health Survey 2006. Methods: A representative sample of 6,773 children aged 4 to 15 years was studied. The data were obtained using the Minors Questionnaire in the Spanish National Health Survey 2006. The ROC curve was constructed and calculations made of the area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity and the Youden J indices. The factorial structure was studied using models of exploratory factorial analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factorial analysis (CFA). Results: The prevalence of behavioural disorders varied between 0.47% and 1.18% according to the requisites of the diagnostic definition. The area under the ROC curve varied from 0.84 to 0.91 according to the diagnosis. Factor models were cross-validated by means of two different random subsamples for EFA and CFA. An EFA suggested a three correlated factor model. CFA confirmed this model. A five-factor model according to EFA and the theoretical five-factor model described in the bibliography were also confirmed. The reliabilities of the factors of the different models were acceptable (>0.70, except for one factor with reliability 0.62). Conclusions: The diagnostic behaviour of the SDQ in the Spanish population is within the working limits described in other countries. According to the results obtained in this study, the diagnostic efficiency of the questionnaire is adequate to identify probable cases of psychiatric disorders in low prevalence populations. Regarding the factorial structure we found that both the five and the three factor models fit the data with acceptable goodness of fit indexes, the latter including an externalization and internalization dimension and perhaps a meaningful positive social dimension. Accordingly, we recommend studying whether these differences depend on sociocultural factors or are, in fact, due to methodological questions.

MOREMATA: Stata module (Mata) to provide various functions

This package includes various Mata functions. kern(): various kernel functions; kint(): kernel integral functions; kdel0(): canonical bandwidth of kernel; quantile(): quantile function; median(): median; iqrange(): inter-quartile range; ecdf(): cumulative distribution function; relrank(): grade transformation; ranks(): ranks/cumulative frequencies; freq(): compute frequency counts; histogram(): produce histogram data; mgof(): multinomial goodness-of-fit tests; collapse(): summary statistics by subgroups; _collapse(): summary statistics by subgroups; gini(): Gini coefficient; sample(): draw random sample; srswr(): SRS with replacement; srswor(): SRS without replacement; upswr(): UPS with replacement; upswor(): UPS without replacement; bs(): bootstrap estimation; bs2(): bootstrap estimation; bs_report(): report bootstrap results; jk(): jackknife estimation; jk_report(): report jackknife results; subset(): obtain subsets, one at a time; composition(): obtain compositions, one by one; ncompositions(): determine number of compositions; partition(): obtain partitions, one at a time; npartitionss(): determine number of partitions; rsubset(): draw random subset; rcomposition(): draw random composition; colvar(): variance, by column; meancolvar(): mean and variance, by column; variance0(): population variance; meanvariance0(): mean and population variance; mse(): mean squared error; colmse(): mean squared error, by column; sse(): sum of squared errors; colsse(): sum of squared errors, by column; benford(): Benford distribution; cauchy(): cumulative Cauchy-Lorentz dist.; cauchyden(): Cauchy-Lorentz density; cauchytail(): reverse cumulative Cauchy-Lorentz; invcauchy(): inverse cumulative Cauchy-Lorentz; rbinomial(): generate binomial random numbers; cebinomial(): cond. expect. of binomial r.v.; root(): Brent's univariate zero finder; nrroot(): Newton-Raphson zero finder; finvert(): univariate function inverter; integrate_sr(): univariate function integration (Simpson's rule); integrate_38(): univariate function integration (Simpson's 3/8 rule); ipolate(): linear interpolation; polint(): polynomial inter-/extrapolation; plot(): Draw twoway plot; _plot(): Draw twoway plot; panels(): identify nested panel structure; _panels(): identify panel sizes; npanels(): identify number of panels; nunique(): count number of distinct values; nuniqrows(): count number of unique rows; isconstant(): whether matrix is constant; nobs(): number of observations; colrunsum(): running sum of each column; linbin(): linear binning; fastlinbin(): fast linear binning; exactbin(): exact binning; makegrid(): equally spaced grid points; cut(): categorize data vector; posof(): find element in vector; which(): positions of nonzero elements; locate(): search an ordered vector; hunt(): consecutive search; cond(): matrix conditional operator; expand(): duplicate single rows/columns; _expand(): duplicate rows/columns in place; repeat(): duplicate contents as a whole; _repeat(): duplicate contents in place; unorder2(): stable version of unorder(); jumble2(): stable version of jumble(); _jumble2(): stable version of _jumble(); pieces(): break string into pieces; npieces(): count number of pieces; _npieces(): count number of pieces; invtokens(): reverse of tokens(); realofstr(): convert string into real; strexpand(): expand string argument; matlist(): display a (real) matrix; insheet(): read spreadsheet file; infile(): read free-format file; outsheet(): write spreadsheet file; callf(): pass optional args to function; callf_setup(): setup for mm_callf().

Value Creation in Family Firms: A Model of Fit

We propose a framework describing how family ownership can create or destroy value depending on the goals, resources, and governance of the family firm, which are each influenced by the family owners. Taking a contingency perspective, we suggest that a fit is required for all three elements – family- influenced goals, resources, and governance – for the family firm to flourish over generations. We conclude with a suggested research agenda indicating research opportunities at the nexus of these identified elements. Further we provide some guiding questions for practitioners that might stimulate fruitful discussions among family firm owners and managers about how to realize ‘‘fit.’’

Compilation and evaluation of leaching test methods /

Mode of access: Internet.

Gamma ray exposure dose to non-urban populations from the surface deposition of nuclear test fallout.

Mode of access: Internet.

Statistical analysis of the goodness of classical factor analysis regression (CFAR) /

Cover title.

Development of a test methodology for evaluating crash compatibilities and aggressiveness. Volume II: technical report. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Development of a test methodology for evaluating crash compatibility and aggressiveness. Test report 1: 1975 Honda Civic CVCC-to-NHTSA test device.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.