On Causal Mediation Analysis with a Survival Outcome

Suppose that having established a marginal total effect of a point exposure on a time-to-event outcome, an investigator wishes to decompose this effect into its direct and indirect pathways, also know as natural direct and indirect effects, mediated by a variable known to occur after the exposure and prior to the outcome. This paper proposes a theory of estimation of natural direct and indirect effects in two important semiparametric models for a failure time outcome. The underlying survival model for the marginal total effect and thus for the direct and indirect effects, can either be a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model, or a marginal structural additive hazards model. The proposed theory delivers new estimators for mediation analysis in each of these models, with appealing robustness properties. Specifically, in order to guarantee ignorability with respect to the exposure and mediator variables, the approach, which is multiply robust, allows the investigator to use several flexible working models to adjust for confounding by a large number of pre-exposure variables. Multiple robustness is appealing because it only requires a subset of working models to be correct for consistency; furthermore, the analyst need not know which subset of working models is in fact correct to report valid inferences. Finally, a novel semiparametric sensitivity analysis technique is developed for each of these models, to assess the impact on inference, of a violation of the assumption of ignorability of the mediator.

Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Outcome-Dependent Sampling

In this paper, we consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals are drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome, and a few low-dimensional confounders. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random sub-sample of individuals are drawn from each stratum, with known, stratum-specific selection probabilities. On these individuals, a rich set of confounding factors are collected. In this setting, we introduce four estimators: (1) simple inverse weighted, (2) locally efficient, (3) doubly robust and (4)enriched inverse weighted. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators in a simulation study. We also use our methodology to estimate the causal effect of trauma care on in-hospital mortality using data from the National Study of Cost and Outcomes of Trauma.

A noncoding melanophilin gene (MLPH) SNP at the splice donor of exon 1 represents a candidate causal mutation for coat color dilution in dogs

Coat color dilution in several breeds of dog is characterized by a specific pigmentation phenotype and sometimes accompanied by hair loss and recurrent skin inflammation, the so-called color dilution alopecia or black hair follicular dysplasia. Coat color dilution (d) is inherited as a Mendelian autosomal recessive trait. In a previous study, MLPH polymorphisms showed perfect cosegregation with the dilute phenotype within breeds. However, different dilute haplotypes were found in different breeds, and no single polymorphism was identified in the coding sequence that was likely to be causative for the dilute phenotype. We resequenced the 5'-region of the canine MLPH gene and identified a strong candidate single nucleotide polymorphism within the nontranslated exon 1, which showed perfect association to the dilute phenotype in 65 dilute dogs from 7 different breeds. The A/G polymorphism is located at the last nucleotide of exon 1 and the mutant A-allele is predicted to reduce splicing efficiency 8-fold. An MLPH mRNA expression study using quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction confirmed that dd animals had only about approximately 25% of the MLPH transcript compared with DD animals. These results provide preliminary evidence that the reported regulatory MLPH mutation might represent a causal mutation for coat color dilution in dogs.

Juvenile myoclonic epilepsy with photosensitivity in a female with Velocardiofacial syndrome (del(22)(q11.2))--causal relationship or coincidence?

We report on an adolescent female with Velocardiofacial syndrome (del(22)(q11.2)) and an epilepsy phenotype resembling juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME). Clinically, the patient has characteristic signs of both disorders. JME has been linked to several chromosomes, but has not been related to 22q11.2 and is rarely observed in other genetic syndromes. We discuss possible explanations for a relationship between the chromosomal aberration and epilepsy as well as the importance of precise delineation of both epilepsy phenotypes and genetic defects in chromosomal disorders.

Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.

The construal of constructions: causal and temporal interpretations in change constructions

In this paper I first discuss some non-causal change constructions which have largely gone unnoticed in the literature, such as The butler bowed the guests in (which is said to code mild causation) and The supporters booed Newcastle off at the interval (which only codes temporal coextension between its two constitutive subevents). Since the same structure (i.e. the transitive object-oriented change construction) can be used to code a wide spectrum of causal and temporal relations, the question arises of what cognitive mechanisms may be involved in such meaning shifts. I argue that variation can be motivated on the basis of the figure/ground segregation which the conceptualiser can impose upon the integrated scene coded by the change construction. The integrated scene depicts a force-dynamic scenario but also evokes a unique temporal setting (i.e. temporal overlap or coextension between the constitutive subevents). Such a “bias” towards temporal overlap can be used by the conceptualiser to background causation and highlight temporal overlap interpretations. It is also shown that figure/ground segregation can be appealed to to account for the causal interpretation of intransitive change constructions, e.g. The kettle boiled dry. If the conceptual distance between the verbal event and the non-verbal event is (relatively) great, causality can be highlighted even in intransitive patterns.