On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

SORMA - business cases for an open grid market: concept and implementation

Economic mechanisms enhance technological solutions by setting the right incentives to reveal information about demand and supply accurately. Market or pricing mechanisms are ones that foster information exchange and can therefore attain efficient allocation. By assigning a value (also called utility) to their service requests, users can reveal their relative urgency or costs to the service. The implementation of theoretical sound models induce further complex challenges. The EU-funded project SORMA analyzes these challenges and provides a prototype as a proof-of-concept. In this paper the approach within the SORMA-project is described on both conceptual and technical level.

Mediating punitiveness: understanding public attitudes towards work-related fatality cases

This paper concerns an empirical investigation into public attitudes towards work-related fatality cases, where organizational offenders cause the death of workers or members of the public. This issue is particularly relevant following the introduction of the Corporate Manslaughter and Corporate Homicide Act 2007 into UK law. Here, as elsewhere, the use of criminal law against companies reflects governmental concerns over public confidence in the law’s ability to regulate risk. The empirical findings demonstrate that high levels of public concern over these cases do not translate into punitive attitudes. Such cases are viewed rationally and constructively, and lead to instrumental rather than purely expressive enforcement preferences.

3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.

Validation of short tandem repeat analysis for the investigation of cases of disputed paternity

This study details validation of two separate multiplex STR systems for use in paternity investigations. These are the Second Generation Multiplex (SGM) developed by the UK Forensic Science Service and the PowerPlex 1 multiplex commercially available from Promega Inc. (Madison, WI, USA). These multiplexes contain 12 different STR systems (two are duplicated in the two systems). Population databases from Caucasian, Asian and Afro-Caribbean populations have been compiled for all loci. In all but two of the 36 STR/ethnic group combinations, no evidence was obtained to indicate inconsistency with Hardy-Weinberg (HW) proportions. Empirical and theoretical approaches have been taken to validate these systems for paternity testing. Samples from 121 cases of disputed paternity were analysed using established Single Locus Probe (SLP) tests currently in use, and also using the two multiplex STR systems. Results of all three test systems were compared and no non-conformities in the conclusions were observed, although four examples of apparent germ line mutations in the STR systems were identified. The data was analysed to give information on expected paternity indices and exclusion rates for these STR systems. The 12 systems combined comprise a highly discriminating test suitable for paternity testing. 99.96% of non-fathers are excluded from paternity on two or more STR systems. Where no exclusion is found, Paternity Index (PI) values of > 10,000 are expected in > 96% of cases.

Contributory negligence involving overseas European banks in property valuation negligence cases in the UK

This paper examines the phenomenon of cross-border property lending and examines a number of issues regarding lending procedures and decision making processes in the context of the relationship between lender and professional advisor. It commences by placing these procedures and processes in the context of the development of cross border European property investment and finance. The UK has been a popular destination for overseas investors and lenders over the last decade and is therefore used as a case study to examine the additional institutional risk that overseas lenders may face when operating outside of their own country and obtaining advice from home professionals. The UK market was the subject of a boom period during the late 1980s, followed by a recession in the early 1990s. The losses triggered a number of professional negligence actions by lenders against valuers. These include a number of overseas lenders mainly from Europe and these cases have been examined for any particular features which, coupled with other data gained from overseas lenders as part of an interview survey, could be used to isolate any significant problems for European lenders in overseas markets. The research identified a lack of clarity in roles and relationships between lender and advisor, difficulties in communications both internally and between overseas branches and headquarters and failures in provision and interpretation of advice. The paper concludes by identifying the issues which may need to be addressed generally by lenders and their advisors, when the lenders are operating in overseas markets.

Tropical-extratropical interactions over Southern Africa: three cases of heavy summer season rainfall

The synoptic evolution of three tropical–extratropical (TE) interactions, each responsible for extreme rainfall events over southern Africa, is discussed in detail. Along with the consideration of previously studied events, common features of these heavy rainfall producing tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa are discussed. It is found that 2 days prior to an event, northeasterly moisture transports across Botswana, set up by the Angola low, are diverted farther south into the semiarid region of subtropical southern Africa. The TTTs reach full maturity as a TE cloud band, rooted in the central subcontinent, which is triggered by upper-level divergence along the leading edge of an upper-tropospheric westerly wave trough. Convection and rainfall within the cloud band is supported by poleward moisture transports with subtropical air rising as it leaves the continent and joins the midlatitude westerly flow. It is shown that these systems fit within a theoretical framework describing similar TE interactions found globally. Uplift forcing for the extreme rainfall of each event is investigated. Unsurprisingly, quasigeostrophic uplift is found to dominate in the midlatitudes with convective processes strongest in the subtropics. Rainfall in the semiarid interior of South Africa appears to be a result of quasigeostrophically triggered convection. Investigation of TTT formation in the context of planetary waves shows that early development is sometimes associated with previous anticyclonic wave breaking south of the subcontinent, with full maturity of TTTs occurring as a potential vorticity trough approaches the continent from the west. Sensitivity to upstream wave perturbations and effects on anticyclonic wave breaking in the South Indian Ocean are also observed.

High leverage interventions: three cases of defensive action and their lessons for OR/MS today.

This paper has two aims. First, to present cases in which scientists developed a defensive system for their homeland: Blackett and the air defense of Britain in WWII, Forrester and the SAGE system for North America in the Cold War, and Archimedes’ work defending Syracuse during the Second Punic War. In each case the historical context and the individual’s other achievements are outlined, and a description of the contribution’s relationship to OR/MS is given. The second aim is to consider some of the features the cases share and examine them in terms of contemporary OR/MS methodology. Particular reference is made to a recent analysis of the field’s strengths and weaknesses. This allows both a critical appraisal of the field and a set of potential responses for strengthening it. Although a mixed set of lessons arise, the overall conclusion is that the cases are examples to build on and that OR/MS retains the ability to do high stakes work.

Combined use of two genetic fingerprinting methods, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and ribotyping, for characterization of Escherichia coli O157 isolates from food animals, retail meats, and cases of human disease

Two genetic fingerprinting techniques, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and ribotyping, were used to characterize 207 Escherichia coli O157 isolates from food animals, foods of animal origin, and cases of human disease (206 of the isolates were from the United Kingdom). In addition, 164 of these isolates were also phage typed. The isolates were divided into two general groups: (i) unrelated isolates not known to be epidemiologically linked (n = 154) and originating from food animals, foods and the environment, or humans and (ii) epidemiologically related isolates (n = 53) comprised of four related groups (RGs) originating either from one farm plus the abattoir where cattle from that farm were slaughtered or from one of three different English abattoirs. PFGE was conducted with the restriction endonuclease XbaI. while for ribotyping, two restriction endonucleases (PstI and SphI) were combined to digest genomic DNAs simultaneously. The 207 E. coli O157 isolates produced 97 PFGE profiles and 51 ribotypes. The two genetic fingerprinting methods had similar powers to discriminate the 154 epidemiologically unrelated E. coli O157 isolates in the study (Simpson's index of diversity [D] = 0.98 and 0.94 for PFGE typing and ribotyping, respectively). There was no correlation between the source of an isolate (healthy meat or milk animals, retail meats, or cases of human infection) and either particular PFGE or ribotype profiles or clusters. Combination of the results of both genetic fingerprinting methods produced 146 types, significantly more than when either of the two methods was used individually. Consequently, the superior discriminatory performance of the PFGE-ribotyping combination was proven in two ways: (i) by demonstrating that the majority of the E. coli O157 isolates with unrelated histories were indeed distinguishable types and (ii) by identifying some clonal groups among two of the four RGs of E. coli O157 isolates (comprising PFGE types different by just one or two bands), the relatedness of which would have remained unconfirmed otherwise.

Knowledge Interfaces and Practices of Negotiation: Cases from a Women's Group in Bolivia and an Oil Refinery in Wales

This chapter examines encounters between international institutions that frame their objectives through a global policy language, and people whose lives are the focus for change heralded by these institutions. It explores how a global policy language, which seeks consensus and equality, can be at odds with local understandings, conflict and intentions.