Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

A U-shaped association between intensity of Internet use and adolescent health.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between different Internet-use intensities and adolescent mental and somatic health. METHODS: Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health, a nationally representative survey of adolescents aged 16 to 20 years in post-mandatory school. From a self-administered anonymous questionnaire, 3906 adolescent boys and 3305 girls were categorized into 4 groups according to their intensity of Internet use: heavy Internet users (HIUs; >2 hours/day), regular Internet users (RIUs; several days per week and <= 2 hours/day), occasional users (<= 1 hour/week), and non-Internet users (NIUs; no use in the previous month). Health factors examined were perceived health, depression, overweight, headaches and back pain, and insufficient sleep. RESULTS: In controlled multivariate analysis, using RIUs as a reference, HIUs of both genders were more likely to report higher depressive scores, whereas only male users were found at increased risk of overweight and female users at increased risk of insufficient sleep. Male NIUs and female NIUs and occasional users also were found at increased risk of higher depressive scores. Back-pain complaints were found predominantly among male NIUs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence of a U-shaped relationship between intensity of Internet use and poorer mental health of adolescents. In addition, HIUs were confirmed at increased risk for somatic health problems. Thus, health professionals should be on the alert when caring for adolescents who report either heavy Internet use or very little/none. Also, they should consider regular Internet use as a normative behavior without major health consequence. Pediatrics 2011;127:e330-e335

Rap Kriol(u) O Pan-Africanismo de Cabral na Música de Intervenção Juvenil na Guiné-Bissau e em Cabo Verde

nos anos de 1990, com a vaga de democratização na Guiné-Bissau e em Cabo-Verde, quer o PAIGC quer o PAICV, partidos tidos como “força, luz e guia do povo”, perdem esse estatuto, pondo fim simultaneamente à cadeia de domesticação dos espíritos, precipitando assim uma descoletivização social das organizações juvenis sob o prisma comunista. Isto fez com que os jovens reinventassem formas de sociabilidades no seio dos grupos de pares, num contexto marcado pela globalização e afro-americanização do mundo, em que a cultura hip-hop, através do seu elemento oral, o rap, aparece como veículo da liberdade de expressão e de protesto dos grupos urbanos em situação de maior precariedade. Este artigo pretende analisar de que forma os jovens guineenses e cabo-verdianos recontextualizaram através do rap, na nova conjuntura dos dois países, o discurso pan-africanista e nacionalista de Amílcar Cabral, tendo em conta o risco de branqueamento da memória coletiva e histórica; a suposta traição dos seus ideais pelos atuais políticos dirigentes; a necessidade de o resgatar enquanto guia do povo; e de representá-lo como um MC (mensageiro da verdade).

Contrasting magma types and timing of intrusion in the Permian layered mafic complex of Mont Collon (Western Alps, Valais, Switzerland): evidence from U/Pb zircon and 40Ar/39Ar amphibole dating

We have selected and dated three contrasting rock-types representative of the magmatic activity within the Permian layered mafic complex of Mont Collon, Austroalpine Dent Blanche nappe, Western Alps. A pegmatitic gabbro associated to the main cumulus sequence yields a concordant U/Pb zircon age of 284.2 +/- 0.6 Ma, whereas a pegmatitic granite dike crosscutting the latter yields a concordant age of 282.9 +/- 0.6 Ma. A Fe-Ti-rich ultrabasic lamprophyre, crosscutting all other lithologies of the complex, yields an 40Ar/39Ar plateau age of 260.2 +/- 0.7 Ma on a kaersutite concentrate. All ages are interpreted as magmatic. Sub-contemporaneous felsic dikes within the Mont Collon complex are ascribed to anatectic back-veining from the country-rock, related to the emplacement of the main gabbroic body in the continental crust, which is in accordance with new isotopic data. The lamprophyres have isotopic compositions typical of a depleted mantle, in contrast to those of the cumulate gabbros, close to values of the Bulk Silicate Earth. This indicates either contrasting sources for the two magma pulses - the subcontinental lithospheric mantle for the gabbros and the underlying asthenosphere for the lamprophyres - or a single depleted lithospheric source with variable degrees of crustal contamination of the gabbroic melts during their emplacement in the continental crust. The Mont Collon complex belongs to a series of Early Permian mafic massifs, which emplaced in a short time span about 285-280 Ma ago, in a limited sector of the post-Variscan continental crust now corresponding to the Austroalpine/ Southern Alpine domains and Corsica. This magmatic activity was controlled in space and time by crustal-scale transtensional shear zones.