A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Web crippling tests of hollow flange channel beams with flanges fastened to supports under two flange load cases

Thin-walled steel hollow flange channel beams known as LiteSteel beam (LSB) sections were developed for use as joists and bearers in various flooring systems. However, they are subjected to specific buckling and failure modes, one of them being web crippling. Despite considerable research in this area, much of the current design predictions for cold-formed steel sections are not directly applicable to LSBs. This is due to the geometry of the LSB, which consists of two closed rectangular hollow flanges, and its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections. Hence an experimental study was conducted to investigate the web crippling behaviour and capacities of LSBs with their flanges fastened to supports. Thirty nine web crippling tests were conducted under two flange load cases (End Two Flange (ETF) and Interior Two Flange (ITF)). Test results showed that for ETF load case the web crippling capacities increased by 50% on average while they increased by 97% for ITF load case when flanges were fastened to supports. Comparison of the ultimate web crippling capacities from tests showed that AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 web crippling design equations are conservative for LSB sections with flanges fastened to supports under ETF and ITF load cases. Hence new equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LSBs with flanges fastened to supports. This paper presents the details of the experimental study into the web crippling behaviour of LSB sections with their flanges fastened under ETF and ITF load cases, and the results.

Shear tests of rivet fastened rectangular hollow flange channel beams

The intermittently rivet fastened Rectangular Hollow Flange Channel Beam (RHFCB) is a new cold-formed hollow section proposed as an alternative to welded hollow flange channel beams. It is a monosymmetric channel section made by intermittently rivet fastening two torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges to a web plate. This process enables the end users to choose an effective combination of different web and flange plate sizes to achieve optimum design capacities. Recent research studies focused mainly on the shear behaviour of the most commonly used lipped channel beam and welded hollow flange beam sections. However, the shear behaviour of rivet fastened RHFCB has not been investigated. Therefore a detailed experimental study involving 24 shear tests was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and capacities of rivet fastened RHFCBs. Simply supported test specimens of RHFCB with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were loaded at mid-span until failure. Comparison of experimental shear capacities with corresponding predictions from the current Australian cold-formed steel design rules showed that the current design rules are very conservative for the shear design of rivet fastened RHFCBs. Significant improvements to web shear buckling occurred due to the presence of rectangular hollow flanges while considerable post-buckling strength was also observed. Such enhancements to the shear behaviour and capacity were achieved with a rivet spacing of 100 mm. Improved design rules were proposed for rivet fastened RHFCBs based on the current shear design equations in AISI S100 and the direct strength method. This paper presents the details of this experimental investigation and the results.

Shear tests of rivet fastened rectangular hollow flange channel beams with web openings

The rivet-fastened rectangular hollow flange channel beam (RHFCB) is a new cold-formed hollow section proposed as an alternative to welded hollow flange steel beams. No research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour and strength of rivet fastened RHFCBs with web openings. Hence a detailed experimental study involving 30 shear tests was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of rivet fastened RHFCBs with web openings. Experimental results showed that the current design rules are inadequate for the shear design of Rivet fastened RHFCBs with web openings. Improved design equations have been proposed for the shear strength of rivet fastened RHFCBs with web openings.

Web crippling tests of rivet fastened rectangular hollow flange channel beams under two-flange load cases

The rivet-fastened rectangular hollow flange channel beam (RHFCB) is a new cold-formed hollow section proposed as an alternative to welded hollow flange steel beams. To date, no investigation has been conducted on their web crippling behaviour and strengths. Hence an experimental study was conducted to investigate the web crippling behaviour and capacities of rivet fastened RHFCBs under End Two Flange (ETF) and Interior Two Flange (ITF) load cases. Experimental results showed that the current design rules are unconservative for rivet fastened RHFCB sections under ETF and ITF load cases. Hence new equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of rivet fastened RHFCBs.

Conditional Probability-Based Significance Tests for Sequential Patterns in Multineuronal Spike Trains

We consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multineuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data-mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns, which occur often enough in the data. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of such repeating patterns. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that not only includes models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a probabilistic model that captures the counting process and use this to derive a test of significance for rejecting such a compound null hypothesis. The structure of our null hypothesis also allows us to rank-order different significant patterns. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach using spike trains generated with a simulator.

Seismic response of wrap-faced reinforced soil-retaining wall models using shaking table tests

This paper presents the results of shaking table tests on geotextile-reinforced wrap-faced soil-retaining walls. Construction of model retaining walls in a laminar box mounted on a shaking table, instrumentation, and results from the shaking table tests are discussed in detail. The base motion parameters, surcharge pressure and number of reinforcing layers are varied in different model tests. It is observed from these tests that the response of the wrap-faced soil-retaining walls is significantly affected by the base acceleration levels, frequency of shaking, quantity of reinforcement and magnitude of surcharge pressure on the crest. The effects of these different parameters on acceleration response at different elevations of the retaining wall, horizontal soil pressures and face deformations are also presented. The results obtained from this study are helpful in understanding the relative performance of reinforced soil-retaining walls under different test conditions used in the experiments.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Tests of a Roman Pot Prototype for the TOTEM Experiment

The TOTEM collaboration has developed and tested the first prototype of its Roman Pots to be operated in the LHC. TOTEM Roman Pots contain stacks of 10 silicon detectors with strips oriented in two orthogonal directions. To measure proton scattering angles of a few microradians, the detectors will approach the beam centre to a distance of 10 sigma + 0.5 mm (= 1.3 mm). Dead space near the detector edge is minimised by using two novel "edgeless" detector technologies. The silicon detectors are used both for precise track reconstruction and for triggering. The first full-sized prototypes of both detector technologies as well as their read-out electronics have been developed, built and operated. The tests took place first in a fixed-target muon beam at CERN's SPS, and then in the proton beam-line of the SPS accelerator ring. We present the test beam results demonstrating the successful functionality of the system despite slight technical shortcomings to be improved in the near future.

Loading of itraconazole into porous silica and silicon microparticles: characterization and dissolution tests

Most new drug molecules discovered today suffer from poor bioavailability. Poor oral bioavailability results mainly from poor dissolution properties of hydrophobic drug molecules, because the drug dissolution is often the rate-limiting event of the drug’s absorption through the intestinal wall into the systemic circulation. During the last few years, the use of mesoporous silica and silicon particles as oral drug delivery vehicles has been widely studied, and there have been promising results of their suitability to enhance the physicochemical properties of poorly soluble drug molecules. Mesoporous silica and silicon particles can be used to enhance the solubility and dissolution rate of a drug by incorporating the drug inside the pores, which are only a few times larger than the drug molecules, and thus, breaking the crystalline structure into a disordered, amorphous form with better dissolution properties. Also, the high surface area of the mesoporous particles improves the dissolution rate of the incorporated drug. In addition, the mesoporous materials can also enhance the permeability of large, hydrophilic drug substances across biological barriers. T he loading process of drugs into silica and silicon mesopores is mainly based on the adsorption of drug molecules from a loading solution into the silica or silicon pore walls. There are several factors that affect the loading process: the surface area, the pore size, the total pore volume, the pore geometry and surface chemistry of the mesoporous material, as well as the chemical nature of the drugs and the solvents. Furthermore, both the pore and the surface structure of the particles also affect the drug release kinetics. In this study, the loading of itraconazole into mesoporous silica (Syloid AL-1 and Syloid 244) and silicon (TOPSi and TCPSi) microparticles was studied, as well as the release of itraconazole from the microparticles and its stability after loading. Itraconazole was selected for this study because of its highly hydrophobic and poorly soluble nature. Different mesoporous materials with different surface structures, pore volumes and surface areas were selected in order to evaluate the structural effect of the particles on the loading degree and dissolution behaviour of the drug using different loading parameters. The loaded particles were characterized with various analytical methods, and the drug release from the particles was assessed by in vitro dissolution tests. The results showed that the loaded drug was apparently in amorphous form after loading, and that the loading process did not alter the chemical structure of the silica or silicon surface. Both the mesoporous silica and silicon microparticles enhanced the solubility and dissolution rate of itraconazole. Moreover, the physicochemical properties of the particles and the loading procedure were shown to have an effect on the drug loading efficiency and drug release kinetics. Finally, the mesoporous silicon particles loaded with itraconazole were found to be unstable under stressed conditions (at 38 qC and 70 % relative humidity).

Effect of relative density and confining pressure on Poisson ratio from bender and extender elements tests

By using the bender and extender elements tests, together with measurements of the travel times of shear (S) and primary (P) waves, the variation of Poisson ratio (nu) was determined for dry sands with respect to changes in relative densities and effective confining pressures (sigma(3)). The tests were performed for three different ranges of particle sizes. The magnitude of the Poisson ratio decreases invariably with an increase in both the relative density and the effective confining pressure. The effect of the confining pressure on the Poisson ratio was found to become relatively more significant for fine-grained sand as compared with the coarse-grained sand. For a given material, at a particular value of sigma(3), the magnitude of the Poisson ratio decreases, almost in a linear fashion, with an increase in the value of maximum shear modulus (G(max)). The two widely used correlations in literature, providing the relationships among G(max), void ratio (e) and effective confining pressure (sigma(3)), applicable for angular granular materials, were found to compare reasonably well with the present experimental data for the fine- and medium-grained sands. However, for the coarse-grained sand, these correlations tend to overestimate the values of G(max).